跨国公司在华子公司角色演化:理论及案例分析

本文根据影响子公司角色转变的因素,将子公司的角色根据每种因素的强弱不同分为八种类型,即起步者、淘汰者、办事员、支持者、小诸侯、贡献者、直辖领袖和自由领袖.根据该子公司角色划分方法和演化路径分析方法,本文深入研究了一家跨国公司在华子公司-BEC公司的角色演化情况,研究证实了本文得出的角色划分方法和演化路径分析框架的适用性,也得到了跨国公司在华子公司的一个具体演化路径.     

股权结构的适度性与公司治理效率

股权结构与公司治理效率存在着密切的关系,在一定条件下,股权结构决定着公司治理结构,适度的股权结构又是影响公司治理效率的决定因素之一。本文从股权结构的适度性角度来考察德美日公司的治理效率,并在此基础上提出了建立有效的公司治理的股权结构适度性模型,从而对转轨时期的中国企业公司治理改革具有一定的参考价值。     

Forecasting expenditure on capital projects

S-curves are widely used for planning, forecasting and control of cost, time and resources of a project. In this paper, a comparison of two S-curve models developed at the Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS) and Bradford University is carried out both from the viewpoint of predictive accuracy and ease of use. The models are validated using expenditure data for 21 recent U.K. health building projects. Methods of least squares is used to estimate the parameters of the two models. These parameters are categorized according to the total cost of the projects. Both the models are shown to be of comparable accuracy for fitting actual expenditure data. The DHSS model has a major advantage of simplicity of form and use, although the slightly greater mathematical complexity of the Keller-Singh model is off-set by the readily interpretable nature of its form and basic parameters. It is concluded that both or either of the models could be used by clients/contractors for effective planning and control of project costs.     

Selection of Probability Distributions in Characterizing Risk of Extreme Events

Use of probability distributions by regulatory agencies often focuses on the extreme events and scenarios that correspond to the tail of probability distributions. This paper makes the case that assessment of the tail of the distribution can and often should be performed separately from assessment of the central values. Factors to consider when developing distributions that account for tail behavior include (a) the availability of data, (b) characteristics of the tail of the distribution, and (c) the value of additional information in assessment. The integration of these elements will improve the modeling of extreme events by the tail of distributions, thereby providing policy makers with critical information on the risk of extreme events. Two examples provide insight into the theme of the paper. The first demonstrates the need for a parallel analysis that separates the extreme events from the central values. The second shows a link between the selection of the tail distribution and a decision criterion. In addition, the phenomenon of breaking records in time-series data gives insight to the information that characterizes extreme values. One methodology for treating risk of extreme events explicitly adopts the conditional expected value as a measure of risk. Theoretical results concerning this measure are given to clarify some of the concepts of the risk of extreme events.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUALS,ITEMS, PROJECTS,PRODUCTS AND STRATEGIES

The problem of selection of the best item from one of a list of items to meet an objective is treated. The items are usually compared against factors or states of nature. The following techniques used to arrive at the “best” selection are treated: 1. Ranking and rating 2. Paired comparison and successive comparison 3. Average score 4. Dominance 5. Game theory Laplace criterion Method of majority rule Bayes solution Criterion of pessimism Criterion of optimism Criterion of regret Minimax and maximin in gaming situations Mixed strategies     

Altruism in Networks

We provide the first analysis of altruism in networks. Agents are embedded in a fixed network and care about the well‐being of their network neighbors. Depending on incomes, they may provide financial support to their poorer friends. We study the Nash equilibria of the resulting game of transfers. We show that equilibria maximize a concave potential function. We establish existence, uniqueness of equilibrium consumption, and generic uniqueness of equilibrium transfers. We characterize the geometry of the network of transfers and highlight the key role played by transfer intermediaries. We then study comparative statics. A positive income shock to an individual benefits all. For small changes in incomes, agents in a component of the network of transfers act as if they were organized in an income‐pooling community. A decrease in income inequality or expansion of the altruism network may increase consumption inequality.     

A simulation of single-level MRP lot sizing heuristics: an analysis of performance by rule

This paper presents the results of a large-scale computer simulation of 12 of the standard single-level, discrete demand lot sizing heuristics. The authors present the results in 3-D illustrations which depict the performance of these heuristics on 15 individual demand patterns. This information is prefaced by a brief review of the method used to perform the simulation. The performance of each of the 12 heuristics was evaluated for 51 sets of cost parameters for each of 15 different demand patterns. This has resulted in the analysis of 9180 combinations of heuristic, demand pattern, and cost parameters. The authors believe that this, by far, represents the largest digital simulation of single-level lot sizing rules completed to date. During the past two decades, a significant amount of research investigating the economics of lot sizing single-level discrete demand patterns has been conducted. However, many of the conclusions reached by individual research efforts on this subject have differed. At various times a lot sizing heuristic has performed best in one study, only to have findings refuted in a later analysis. Overall, this has led to a certain degree of confusion and mistrust of the heuristics themselves. The authors believe that there are three major reasons why previous research efforts have reached various conclusions. First, previous studies have included only subset of the possible heuristics. Second, previous studies have used different methods of calculating holding costs. Finally, previous studies have used demand patterns so short that a large percentage of transient noise is contained in the performance data.     

An Empirical Approach for Deriving Information on Total Duration of Exposure from Information on Historical Exposure

Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of "longevity" bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson ( Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.     

考虑公平偏好的双重信息不对称下PPP项目激励机制研究

PPP项目中社会资本的能力禀赋和努力水平为其私有信息,如何激励社会资本显示真实的能力禀赋和努力水平一直是PPP项目治理研究的重要议题。在传统的PPP项目激励治理研究中,往往假设社会资本只具有单一私有信息,由此形成单一的逆向选择或道德风险问题。但在PPP激励治理现实中,社会资本经常同时拥有关于能力禀赋和努力水平双重私有信息,从而导致关于类型不对称信息的逆向选择和关于行为不对称信息的道德风险问题共存。本文研究了PPP项目中逆向选择和道德风险共存的激励机制设计问题。构建了针对社会资本同时拥有能力禀赋和努力水平两种私有信息的激励机制设计模型。该模型以项目产出绩效为激励途径,通过设计最优契约使得社会资本谎报信息类型的收益水平不高于其真实汇报类型的收益,从而激励社会资本显示真实能力禀赋的同时付出最优努力水平,保证项目效率。同时考虑了社会资本的公平偏好,探讨了公平偏好对这种双重不对称信息激励机制设计的影响。研究表明：通过设计合理的PPP项目激励机制能够实现对社会资本的信息甄别和激励其付出最优努力的双重目的,政府对社会资本的激励强度同社会资本市场分布有关,且随着社会资本嫉妒偏好强度的提高和被指责偏好强度的减弱而增大。本文的研究可以为解决现实中PPP项目的激励机制设计问题提供理论依据和决策参考。     

Flow and stock analysis of Polish unemployment: January 1990-June 1991*

Abstract. Unemployment is and will be for the foreseeable future one of the major issues of economies in transition. Not onIy is unemployment in post-communist economies a socially explosive problem; what happens on the unemployment front allows us to also make inferences about the state of the transition process in general. In this paper we look at Polish unemployment as it evolved from January 1990 to June 1991. A framework is developed which allows us to discuss flows into and out of unemployment. In analyzing the determinants of the various flows we discuss the macroeconomic environment brought about by the reforms and the role of prices and wages. However, we stress above all institutional and structural factors which have an impact on labour flows in the Polish post-communist economy. The stocks of several variables are also analyzed. We relate the trends of some unemployment stocks (especially the stocks of school leavers and group layoffs) to the trend of the overall stock of unemployment. We also look at the trends of vacancies and of various UIV ratios and touch upon the short run and long run trends of employment by sector. The main conclusion of the paper is that the high level of unemployment in Poland is neither due to the elimination of hidden unemployment (it actually increased in 1990!) nor a result of restructuring. The level of unemployment is high because of large inflows from outside the labour force and because hirings have been much fewer than in previous years while separations have only been slightly greater.     

How can we ascertain,understand and interpret the performance level of a production system? A visual method: 'The plan of preferences'

The general context of this study is the parameterizing of the production system. The aim is to regulate the physical flow according to objectives, usually expressed in terms of performance indicator values. Performance control requires mastery of the consequences of the choices made. It then becomes essential to be able to articulate the potential effects of the various decisions. The existing approaches to solving this problem all imply the use of means of simulation capable of assessing the value of the performance indicators for each configuration of the action parameters. Taking this assumption as a basis, and focusing on the user, a multiple criteria approach is developed towards the understanding and schematization of the behaviour of a given system. The particularity of this approach lies in combining both data analysis and user expertise. The instrumentation approach uses tools for data analysis and assistance in decision making to achieve an original visualization of the structure of performance levels in a plan, called the plan of preferences .     

Technological newness: An empirical study in the process industries

Technological change in product development is a crucial issue in the management of technology. The entire sweep of technological changes over the past hundred of years is, in essence, the sum of thousands of individual product development projects in thousands of firms. Yet the degree of technological change in individual development projects has not been extensively studied. This paper presents a four-dimensional characterization of technological newness for product development projects in the process industries in which product development is closely tied to process innovation. The characterization uses four dimensions of change that are required in the development of new products: chemistry, production equipment, fabrication technology and process control. Based on the framework of technological newness, the paper presents data collected on the degree of process change in a set of 20 product development projects conducted by a large manufacturer of advanced polymers. The data provide a clear demonstration of the value of the measurement framework, showing a strong relationship between the characterization of change and the project performance.     

Supply system structure, management and performance: a conceptual model

This paper contributes to the debate within the supply chain management field on the structure, operational management and performance measurement of supply systems. It draws on influential work from these fields in order to support the presentation of a conceptual model. This represents a synthesis of the ideas and concepts discussed, and acts as a focus for subsequent discussion. After presentation and explanation of the model, the structure of supply systems is considered. The relationships are explored between this and both the type of product that is exchanged and the nature of the demand profile. Conclusions are drawn that suggest that the architecture of the supply network should be determined once those factors are clarified and understood in the context of specific supply situations. The role of intermediary organizations within supply systems is discussed. It is then argued that a number of key variables influence the success of the management of the supply system and of its performance. Issues relating to these variable classes are discussed. Conclusions are drawn that highlight directions for further research.     

A Note on the Influence of Rail Defects on the Risk Associated with Shipping Hazardous Materials by Rail

Existing approaches to routing hazardous material shipments by rail recognize that track condition is an important influence, but have not included it in the risk assessment and routing models. This note explores the influence of track condition based on predictions of internal defects in the rail. The method developed predicts the expected frequency of accidents and subsequent consequences in terms of the expected number of fatalities accounting for one aspect of track condition-internal defects. It is intended to indicate the magnitude and impact of track condition. The formulation integrates models of consequences and the risk of a hazardous spill found in the literature with the frequency of accidents as a function of the number of defects. The number of defects may be based on observations or predicted as a function of the cumulative traffic. The models are used to calculate the expected number of fatalities per year for a particular route. Application of the methodology to a hypothetical route shows that the risk associated with the transportation of hazardous material shipments varies significantly with the expected number of defects in the track. Therefore, risk not only varies from route to route but over time for any section of track as the condition deteriorates.     

Use of a case study in sequencing/scheduling research

This paper describes a study of an industrial sequencing/scheduling problem. The study contains the definition of the problem, data requirements and examination of solution technique. Definition of the problem is discussed from the aspect of uniqueness of the specific system. Discussion of data requirements includes availability and accuracy, while examination of solution technique considers limitation of time, computer capacity, etc., as well as the possibility of imbedding available algorithms into the solution procedure. Conclusions are presented relative to the use of the case study approach in sequencing/scheduling research.     

Constitutional guarantees to health care in Spain

This analysis of the Spanish health care system is one in a series of such studies undertaken by the author, following a grid of factors that influence the delivery and financing of health care. The purpose of the national analyses is to facilitate a comparison of the United States' and other health care systems in terms of anticipated reform of the U.S. system. Analyses of the U.S. and nine other national systems are included in a book that has just been published by the College. Spain and nine additional countries will be studied in a book due for publication later this year. A final book with ten additional national analyses will appear in 1996.     

Cancer Fatalities from Waterborne Radon (Rn-222)

A model of the biokinetics of radon in the human body following ingestion is developed from existing data. Calculations of the probability of cancer fatality from use of radon-laden water in the home then are presented. The pathways of emanation and ingestion are examined and shown to lead to roughly equal risks. The probability of fatal cancer resulting from lifetime use of water at a radon concentration of 1 pCi/L is shown to be 1 X 10(-6), with a reasonable range between 2 X 10(-7) and 5 X 10(-6). The allowed concentration consistent with an excess risk of 10(-4) then is approximately 100 pCi/L, which is exceeded in a significant fraction of U.S. water supplies. The lifetime number of premature deaths due to waterborne radon in the U.S. is estimated to lie between 5000 and 125,000, with a best estimate of 25,000.     

PRODUCT LINE AND INVENTORY STRATEGY

The problem of optimal variety in inventory heretofore has been approached on an individual item basis. This paper demonstrates the analysis of aggregate inventory through the use of the log-normal distribution. The theory and application of this distribution to inventory problems are reviewed. This distribution is then applied to the problem of optimal variety, measuring the impact on sales and cost of deletion of slow-moving items in order to determine the optimal assortment for profitability. This then leads to analysis of optimal margin determination for slow-moving items. The final part of the discussion deals with inventory characteristics of the distribution channel, utilizing the characteristics of the log-normal distribution.     

Coaching auf dem Weg zur Profession? Eine professionssoziologische Einordnung

Following a historical and sociological introduction into the special subject of profession the contribution discusses the niveau of the professionalization of coaching. While the development of the expertise and the organisational level has achieved obvious progress the definition of jurisdiction remains still unclear. A look at the development of coaching in the context of the New Capitalisms shows a connection between the de-professionalization in many working areas and a complementary differentiation and professionalization of extra-functional competences. The professionalization of Coaching and other new forms of reflexive counselling are linked to this development. Although the classical model of profession has become weaker the clarifying of jurisdiction and the autonomy are still remaining the decisive challenges of professional work. As to both aspects the contribution provides an outlook.