Re-examining the relationship between Latino immigration and racial/ethnic violence

Whether immigration increases crime has long been a source of political debate and scholarly interest. Despite widespread public opinion to the contrary, the weight of evidence suggests the most recent wave of U.S. immigration has not increased crime, and may have actually helped reduce criminal violence. However, with recent shifts in immigrant settlement patterns away from traditional receiving destinations, a series of contemporary studies suggests a more complicated immigration-crime relationship, whereby Latino immigration is said to increase violence in newer immigrant destinations (but not in established destinations) and has varied effects for different racial/ethnic groups. With few exceptions, these more recent studies rely on cross-sectional analyses, thus limiting their ability to examine the longitudinal nexus between Latino immigration and violent crime. This study brings to bear the first longitudinal data set to test the relationship between immigration and racial/ethnic homicide in U.S. metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2010. Results from bivariate longitudinal associations and multivariate fixed effects models are contrary to recent findings – Latino immigration is generally associated with decreases in homicide victimization for whites, blacks, and Hispanics in both established and non-established immigrant destinations, though these associations are not significant in all cases.     

Alcohol outlets,social disorganization,and robberies: Accounting for neighborhood characteristics and alcohol outlet types

We estimated spatially lagged regression and spatial regime models to determine if the variation in total, on-premise, and off-premise alcohol outlet¹ density is related to robbery density, while controlling for direct and moderating effects of social disorganization.² Results suggest that the relationship between alcohol outlet density and robbery density is sensitive to the measurement of social disorganization levels. Total alcohol outlet density and off-premise alcohol outlet density were significantly associated with robbery density when social disorganization variables were included separately in the models. However, when social disorganization levels were captured as a four item index, only the association between off-premise alcohol outlets and robbery density remained significant. More work is warranted in identifying the role of off-premise alcohol outlets and their characteristics in robbery incidents.     

Business structure,ethnic shifts in labor markets,and violence: The link between company size,local labor markets,and non-Latino homicide

Combining several schools of thought, including the civic engagement thesis, we extend current research by linking three things at the county level; firm size, the ethnic composition of labor markets, and violent crime. Our results suggest that larger businesses (based on the average number of persons employed) are more likely to have an external orientation and long recruitment reach, and this is linked to ethnic shifts in labor markets toward Latino workers. Such shifts are in turn associated with high rates of homicide among non-Latinos. Through indirect effects modeling, we find that increases in Black homicide are linked to rises in concentrated poverty, while increases in White homicide are linked to changes in unemployment. We discuss the implications of our findings.     

Civic communities and urban violence

Civic communities have a spirit of entrepreneurialism, a locally invested population and an institutional structure fostering civic engagement. Prior research, mainly confined to studying rural communities and fairly large geographic areas, has demonstrated that civic communities have lower rates of violence. The current study analyzes the associations between the components of civic communities and homicide rates for New Orleans neighborhoods (census tracts) in the years following Hurricane Katrina. Results from negative binomial regression models adjusting for spatial autocorrelation reveal that community homicide rates are lower where an entrepreneurial business climate is more pronounced and where there is more local investment. Additionally, an interaction between the availability of civic institutions and resource disadvantage reveals that the protective effects of civic institutions are only evident in disadvantaged communities.     

Walking ATMs and the immigration spillover effect: The link between Latino immigration and robbery victimization

Media reports and prior research suggest that undocumented Latino migrants are disproportionately robbed because they rely on a cash-only economy and they are reluctant to report crimes to law-enforcement (the Walking ATM phenomenon). From this we generate two specific research questions. First, we probe for an immigration spillover effect – defined as increased native and documented Latino robbery victimization due to offenders’ inability to distinguish between the statuses of potential victims. Second, we examine the oft-repeated claim that Blacks robbers disproportionately target Latino victims. Using National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 282 counties, results show (1) support for an immigration spillover effect but, (2) no support for the claim that Latinos are disproportionately singled out by Black robbers. We discuss the implications of our findings.     

Comparative modeling approaches for understanding urban violence

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of three different modeling approaches for exploring structural theories of violence. Specifically, ordinary least squares regression, geographically weighted regression and data envelopment analysis will be utilized to evaluate violent crime. This type of analysis expands upon traditional theory testing by deepening our understanding of differences in crime generation and its underlying demographic and socio-economic stimuli via different methodological lenses. A case study for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio is presented and the results suggest that a combination of approaches is likely the best strategy for evaluating violence in urban areas.     

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks,dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.     

The immigration–crime relationship: Evidence across US metropolitan areas

Despite popular commentary claiming a link between immigration and crime, empirical research exploring this relationship is sparse. Especially missing from the literature on immigration and crime is a consideration of how immigration affects rates of crime at the macro-level. Although individual-level studies of immigrant criminality and victimization tend to demonstrate that immigrants typically engage in less crime than their native-born counterparts, the effect of immigration on aggregate criminal offending is less clear. In this research, we attempt to address this weakness in the literature by examining the effects of aspects of immigration on crime rates in metropolitan areas. We combine 2000 US Census data and 2000 Uniform Crime Report data to explore how the foreign-born population influences criminal offending across a sample of metropolitan areas. After controlling for a host of demographic and economic characteristics, we find that immigration does not increase crime rates, and some aspects of immigration lessen crime in metropolitan areas.     

Are Hispanics the new ‘Threat’? Minority group threat and fear of crime in Miami-Dade County

Research examining the determinants of fear of crime has arguably raised more questions than it has answered. This exploratory study addresses one of the compelling questions that remains unanswered: what is the role of ethnicity, both at the community and individual levels, in understanding variation in fear of crime? Guided by racial or minority group threat theory, we examine the relative sizes of both the Black and Latino populations as indicators of minority group threat to determine their role in understanding individual fear of crime in a city where Latinos represent a much larger proportion of the population than Blacks (Miami-Dade County, Florida). Furthermore, the race and ethnic backgrounds of the respondents are also considered to evaluate their role in understanding variation in the fear of crime. Using both Census tract-level data and data collected from a NIDA sponsored grant that was part of a larger study about physically disabled residents, our findings reveal that in Miami-Dade County where Blacks are highly segregated from whites, the relative size of the Latino population is a predictor of fear of crime among white residents. Implications of this finding are considered, including a call for more nuanced research focusing on the predictors of fear of crime within multiethnic communities.     

Social structure and homicide in post-Soviet Russia

The Russian homicide rate is among the highest in the world. Local rates are not uniform, however, but instead show tremendous variation throughout this large nation. As a result of varying levels of development, differential access to natural resources, past Soviet economic and social policies, and the varying pace of the social, political, and economic transition, there are also large differences across Russia in structural factors thought to be related to interpersonal violence. In this study, newly available vital statistics and socioeconomic data were employed to estimate the effects of social structural characteristics on homicide rates in the Russian regions (n = 78). Results revealed that commonly tested covariates such as poverty and single-parent households were positively associated with regional homicide victimization rates, as was a proxy for heavy drinking. Further, homicide rates in the Northern Caucasus and the regions east of the Ural mountains are significantly lower and higher, respectively, than in the rest of the country. These results are discussed in terms of the current Russian situation and integrated into the broader literature on social structure and homicide.     

Fear of violence during armed conflict: Social roles and responsibilities as determinants of fear

This article investigates the prevalence and determinants of fear as a consequence of living through armed conflict. We use survey data from Nepal during the armed conflict (1996–2006) to examine how trauma, sex and gender, age, marriage, and household size affect fear of violence. We also disaggregate types of worry, and find substantial variance on whether respondents were more concerned about livelihood consequences of conflict than physical danger. We supplement quantitative analyses with discussion of in-depth interviews from the study area on these same topics. Overall, our results highlight the enduring impact of gender roles in Nepal and that conflict might disproportionately affect those who are already vulnerable and have greater social responsibilities. This article provides a unique comparison between fear of violence during armed conflict in a low-income country to the fear of crime literature based in high-income countries.     

Family violence: A microeconomic approach

A model of violence between adult family members is developed by integrating material from the sociological theories of family violence and social exchange, and the economic theories of crime and the family. Based on this model a decrease in the dictator's internal sanctions against violence would be expected to increase the amount of time allocated to violence by the dictator. Further, if the level of fines and other monetary costs imposed by external agencies (e.g., the courts) as a result of the family violence do not vary with the level of violence, then the model indicates that an increase in such monetary sanctions will cause a reduction in the amount of time the dictator allocates to violence. If both the dictator and victim are risk neutral, an increase in the probability of external intervention will decrease the time allocated to violence. In addition, it is found that increases in the opportunities available to the victim outside the marriage will tend to improve the well-being of the victim in the marriage even if it has no effect on the time allocated to violence by the dictator. The model also provides insights for empirical work in family violence such as (1) suggestions of relevant independent variables, (2) the specification of a functional form for estimation, and (3) the specification of an error structure for the empirical model.     

The contemporary foreclosure crisis and US crime rates

Foreclosure rates in America reached unprecedented levels during the last half of the 2000s, and many observers have speculated that elevated crime rates were one of the probable negative collateral consequences of this trend. We examine this issue with a comprehensive county-level analysis of the role of foreclosure in shaping contemporary crime patterns, highlighting the possibility of theoretically informed non-linear and conditional relationships. Multivariate regression models that account for the well-documented spatial autocorrelation of crime rates and the possible endogeneity of foreclosure reveal a positive association between rates of foreclosure and property crime that accelerates significantly once foreclosure rates attain historically high levels. Multiplicative models indicate that this pattern holds for burglary across diverse county conditions, but the observed non-linear effect of foreclosure on robbery rates is limited primarily to areas that also exhibit relatively high levels of resource deprivation and limited new housing construction.     

Predicting bias homicide across victim groups: A county-level analysis

Outside several notable exceptions, few studies have examined variations in bias crime occurrences across American communities, and how community-level factors may differentially shape violent and non-violent bias crimes across victim groups. Drawing from ecological theories of crime, this study asks, (1) what are the structural predictors of the likelihood of bias homicide occurrences? and (2) how do structural predictors differ across bias victim groups? To answer these questions, data on bias homicide are derived from the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB) for the years 1990 through 2014 and paired with socio- structural variables from the United States Census Bureau. Results are discussed relative to the goals of understanding where fatal bias crimes are more likely to occur as a means of informing law enforcement and policymakers interested in preventing and responding to this specific form of crime.     

Children's immigrant generational status and delinquency: The mediating effects of friendship networks

A mounting body of empirical studies demonstrates that first-generation immigrant children have a lower level of delinquency and crime but second and third-plus generations report a precipitous increase in these behaviors. Adopting a social network approach, we analyzed the behavioral and structural characteristics of children’s friendship networks across the first, second, and third-plus immigrant generations, and investigated the mediating role of these friendship traits in explaining generational disparity. Our results reveal that children’s friendship networks differ in structural (e.g., popularity) and behavioral features (e.g., network deviance) across immigrant generations. These friendship features, particularly network peer deviance, the percentage of second-generation friends, and children’s popularity mediate the association between immigrant generational status and children’s delinquency. Extending previous research, our study highlights the importance of applying the social network approach to understand delinquency disparity across immigrant generations and suggests that the composition of friendship networks play an important role in immigrant children’s delinquency involvement.     

Foreclosures and crime: A city-level analysis in Southern California of a dynamic process

Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.     

Do theories of crime or violence explain race differences in delinquency?

We examine race differences in delinquency using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We use a new method that permits an examination of offense specialization. We argue that an examination of offense patterns provides an opportunity for testing theoretical explanations of race effects. If race differences in violent crime reflect race differences in serious crime, then theories of crime can explain race effects. Otherwise, theories of violence are needed to explain the phenomenon. Our results suggest that black adolescents have higher rates of violence, particularly armed violence, but they do not have higher rates of serious (or minor) property or drug crime. Race differences in violence are generally stronger for adolescents who would otherwise be at lower risk: girls and adolescents from educated and intact families. Puerto Rican adolescents also have higher rates of violence than Anglos, but other Hispanic groups do not. We conclude with a discussion of the implication of the empirical literature (including our results) for various theoretical explanations of race differences in violence.     

The resilience of neighborhood social processes: A case study of the 2011 Brisbane flood

Social disorganization theories position neighborhood social capital and collective efficacy as key social processes that should facilitate community resilience in the aftermath of disaster. Yet limited evidence demonstrates that these social processes are themselves resilient with some studies showing that disaster can fracture even once cohesive neighborhoods. In this paper we assess the stability of neighborhood level collective efficacy and social capital before and after a disaster. We use multilevel structural equation modeling and draw on census and longitudinal survey data collected from over 4000 residents living in 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia before and after a significant flood event. We examine what happens to social capital and collective efficacy in flooded and non-flooded neighborhoods and assess whether demographic shifts are associated with change and/or stability in these processes. We find strong evidence that these processes operate similarly across flooded and not flooded communities. Our findings also reveal significant stability for our measures of social capital across time, while collective efficacy increases post flood across all neighborhoods, but more so in flooded neighborhoods. Neighborhood demographics have limited effect on patterns of stability or change in these social processes. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings for our understanding of neighborhood resilience in the wake of disaster.     

Migration and stratification

Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin color diversity among couples formed by US citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8-12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born US citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants’ and their children’s life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States.     

The link between unemployment and crime rate fluctuations: An analysis at the county, state, and national levels

Cantor and Land (1985) developed a theoretical model that proposed two pathways through which economic activity - as indexed by the aggregate unemployment rate - could affect the rate of criminal activity. The first is by increasing levels of criminal motivation within the population as deteriorating economic conditions affect social strain and social control; the second is by influencing the availability and vulnerability of criminal targets and thus the number of criminal opportunities. Although much empirical research has applied this theoretical model, few analyses have done so at disaggregated units of analysis. We present the most comprehensive analysis to date by empirically evaluating this model with data on 400 of the largest US counties - and examine the effects of aggregation on results as these county data are combined to the state and national levels - for the years 1978-2005. For seven Index crimes at each of the three levels of analysis, and with or without controls for structural covariates at each level, the directional effects hypothesized by Cantor and Land are found for 78 out of 84 estimated relationships. Even after taking into account the lack of statistical independence of these estimates by drawing on recently developed statistical theory, this is a very unlikely outcome. In accordance with expectations based on theory and prior research, (a) some of these relationships are weak and not statistically significant, and (b) the strongest and most consistent patterns of relationships for both the crime opportunity and crime motivation effects are found for three property crimes: burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Suggestions for further research on this topic are given.