WOMEN AND CRIME: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

This paper analyzes the determinants of female participation in criminal activities through the use of an economic model of crime. The model is tested empirically on 1970 state data on female arrests and the results are generally consistent with the theoretical predictions. The major findings are that the probability of arrest and the probability of conviction have significant deterrent effects on female property crime, the labor force participation rate of married women has no effect and the average number of preschool children in husband-wife families has a negative and significant effect. The decrease in the average number of preschool children per husband-wife family that took place between 1960 and 1970 is shown to have accounted for more than half of the increase in female property crime that occurred during that decade .     

CULTURAL DIVERSITY, DISCRIMINATION, AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES: AN EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS

Does cultural diversity affect economic outcomes? We develop an experimental framework that complements ongoing research on this question. We vary the ethnic mix of bargaining sessions to study intercultural interactions among members of U.S. Hispanic and Navajo cultures. We control for demographic differences in our subject pools and elicit beliefs directly in order to differentiate between statistical discrimination and preference‐based discrimination. Hispanic and Navajo subjects behave differently, and their behavior is affected by the ethnic composition of the experimental session. Our experimental framework can shed light on economic behavior and outcomes in societies of mixed ethnicity, race, and religion. (JEL C78, C90, Z10)     

THEORY-BASED MEASUREMENT OF THE SAVING-INVESTMENT CORRELATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO NORWAY

The work of Feldstein and Horioka has stimulated much research on the correlations of national savings and investment rates and their relation to the degree of international capital mobility. Theory implies a cointegrating relation between these variables, which suggests this correlation is measured best by an error correction model. This model includes all previous specifications as special cases, which we show are potentially misspeced on theoretical grounds. Applied to Norway, our model outperforms prevailing specifications. We detect structural breaks, and find the correlation's time profile is consistent with other indicators of capital mobility.     

THE CHALLENGE OF REVENUE SHARING WITH BUNDLED PRICING: AN APPLICATION TO MUSIC

Although bundling can substantially increase profits relative to standalone pricing, particularly for zero‐marginal‐cost information products, it has one major problem: bundling produces revenue that is not readily attributable to particular pieces of intellectual property, creating a revenue division problem. We evaluate several possible solutions using unique song valuation survey data. We find the Shapley value, a well‐motivated theoretical solution, is universally incentive compatible (all bundle elements fare better inside the bundle than under standalone pricing), but revenue‐sharing schemes feasible with readily available consumption data are not. Among feasible schemes, Ginsburgh and Zang's modified Shapley value performs best. (JEL C71, D79, L14)     

HEDONIC IMPUTATION AND THE PRICE INDEX PROBLEM: AN APPLICATION TO HOUSING

In this study, we show how use of the hedonic imputation method complicates the price index problem. In addition to the usual choice between formulas such as Fisher and Törnqvist, the fact that index compilers have some discretion over which prices are imputed implies that it is necessary to choose as well between different varieties of each formula. The functional form of the hedonic model must also be taken into account. We illustrate the importance of these issues in a housing context using house price data for three regions in Sydney over a 3‐yr period. (JEL C43, E31, O47, R31)     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE DEMAND FOR ABORTIONS

This study uses an economic model of fertility control to estimate the demand for abortions. The results show that the fundamental law of demand holds for abortions, with the price elasticity of demand equal to –.81. Abortions are a normal good with an income elasticity of demand equal to .79. The demand for abortions is also positively related to the labor force participation of women and to being unmarried. Catholic religion, education and the poverty status of women were found to have no statistically significant impact on the demand for abortions.     

INFERENCE USING QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO MONETARY POLICY

I propose a framework for drawing inferences about an unobserved variable using qualitative and quantitative information. Using this framework, I study the timing and persistence of monetary policy regimes and compute probabilistic measures of the qualitative indicator's reliability. These estimates suggest that (1) it is over one and one-half times more likely that monetary policy is not restrictive at any point in time, (2) Boschen and Mills's [1995] policy index is a reliable indicator of the stance of monetary policy, and (3) certain qualitative indicators of monetary policy improve interest rate forecasts that are based on linear forecasting models. (JEL C22, E52)     

A MIXED MODELS APPROACH TO THE AGE-PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS OF REPEATED CROSS-SECTION SURVEYS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO DATA ON TRENDS IN VERBAL TEST SCORES

We develop a mixed (fixed and random effects) models approach to the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of micro data sets in the form of a series of the repeated cross-section sample surveys that are increasingly available to sociologists. This approach recognizes the multilevel structure of the individual-level responses. As a substantive illustration, we apply our proposed methodology to data on verbal test scores from 15 cross-sections of the General Social Survey, 1974–2000. These data have been the subject of recent debates in the sociological literature. We show how our approach can be used to shed new light on these debates by identifying and estimating age, period, and cohort components of change.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IDENTITY AND CAREER CHOICE*

Standard economic models tend to be more specific about pecuniary payoffs than nonpecuniary payoffs to education. Based on the ideas of Akerlof and Kranton, we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive nonpecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for planned educational choices and for observed gender differences. The implication is that policy makers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity‐related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting high‐ability youths to certain careers. (JEL I21, J24)     

A MODEL OF OPTIMAL PLANT SIZE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE DEMAND FOR COGNITIVE ACHIEVEMENT AND FOR SCHOOL SIZE

A model of optimal plant size is developed which predicts that 1) plants experience increasing returns to in-plants inputs, 2) the relative price of plant output is greater in rural areas than in urban areas, and 3) plants are larger in urban areas than in rural areas. The model's predictions appear to be consistent with behavior in a number of consumer services (e. g., grocery, movie, and library services). These predictions are more rigorously tested and are strongly supported when demand functions for cognitive achievement and for school size are estimated. These regressions also lend support to the quality-quantity model of fertility.     

A COUNTRY RISK INDEX: ECONOMETRIC FORMULATION AND AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

Dynamic factor analysis is used to estimate a monthly country risk index for Mexico. This method extracts the unobservable risk information contained in deviations from interest rate parity and allows for hypothesis tests regarding the important determinants of such risk. The results suggest that the ratios of imports to reserves and debt to exports are important determinants of Mexican country risk. The estimated risk index correctly anticipates the Mexican capital controls and financial crisis of August 1982. In addition, the index significantly leads the country risk rating published by Institutional Investor based on commercial bank surveys.     

HOUSEHOLD, GENDER, AND POLITICAL RESPONSES TO ECONOMIC DOWNTURN:

Although sociologists have given increased attention to political responses of populations experiencing economic restructuring, existing research remains conceptually limited. Building upon resource mobilization theory and longstanding structural approaches, we extend the conceptual discourse of mobilization by considering alternative bases of action involving the household and its gendered relationships. We provide an empirical example using data from a twelve-state midwestern sample of farm couples during the 1980s farm crisis. In addition to predictors outlined by conventional structural mobilization frameworks, we find that political socialization between spouses (an alternative, generally unexplored base of political action) is an important determinant of action. Relative to men, women tend to exert a more radicalizing political influence on their spouses.     

ESTIMATING MARKET POWER IN HOMOGENOUS PRODUCT MARKETS USING A COMPOSED ERROR MODEL: APPLICATION TO THE CALIFORNIA ELECTRICITY MARKET

This study proposes a novel econometric approach to estimating market power in homogenous product markets. We use a composed error model to estimate the stochastic part of firms' strategic pricing equation. This part is formed by two random variables: a traditional error term, which captures random shocks, and a random conduct term, which measures the degree of market power. This approach allows for the conduct parameter to vary flexibly across firms and within firms over time, and avoids ad hoc structural restrictions for identifying firms' conduct. The empirical application of our approach is based on a well‐known California wholesale electricity market data set, which has been rigorously used to study market power. Our results suggest that realization of market power varies over both time and firms, and reject the assumption of a common or time‐invariant conduct parameter. (JEL C34, C51, L13, L94)     

NEO-DURKHEIMIAN ANALYSES OF ECONOMIC LIFE AND STRIFE: FROM DURKHEIM TO THE SOCIAL CONTRACT

“The task of the most advanced societies, is, then, a work of justice… Just as the ideal of lower societies was to create or maintain as intense a common life as possible, in which the individual was absorbed, so our ideal is to make social relations always more equitable… The harmony of functions and, accordingly, of existence, is at stake. Just as ancient peoples needed, above all, a common faith to live by, so we need justice…”     

GOVERNMENT DEBT AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY: AN EXTREME BOUND ANALYSIS

The article provides evidence that there is a relationship between government debt and interest rates via the demand for money. This relationship is examined through the wealth effect of government debt on money demand, and the robustness of the results is tested by the use of extreme bound analysis in addition to standard econometric techniques. We find that OLS regression shows government debt fnfecting the demand for money positively, implying that Federal government debt is net wealth. In addition, the extreme bound analysis shows that the estimates of the government debt coefficient are robust under alternative specifications of the Goldfeld model.