Subjective probabilities and utility with event-dependent preferences

This article generalizes Savage's theory to include event-dependent preferences. The state space is partitioned into finitely many events. The induced preferences over consequences are assumed independent of the underlying states within, but not across, these events. This results in an additively separable representation of preferences over acts. The dependence of the preference relation over consequences on the events is represented by event-dependent mappings of the set of consequences onto itself. Given these mappings, the preferences on acts are represented by the expectation of event-dependent utilities on the consequences with respect to unique subjective probabilities on the states.Helpful discussions with David Schmeidler are gratefully acknowledged.     

Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities when the Initial Endowment is Unobservable

In the framework of subjective expected utility theory we develop two distinct procedures for the elicitation of a person's subjective probabilities when the initial endowment is random and unobservable. Procedures of the first kind rely on the boundedness of the utility function to elicit the person's subjective probabilities directly. Procedures of the second kind infer the person's initial endowment from his choice behavior prior to the application of probability elicitation.     

Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.     

On the Representation of Beliefs by Probabilities

This paper explores two axiomatic structures of subjective expected utility assuming a finite state-space and state-dependent, connected, topological outcome-spaces. Building on the work of Karni and Schmeidler (1981) the analytical framework includes, in addition to the preference relation on acts, introspective preferences on hypothetical lotteries that are linked to the preference relation on acts by consistency axioms. The two models accommodate state-dependent preferences and yield subjective probabilities that correctly represent the decision-maker's beliefs. State-independent preferences are a special case.     

Probabilities and beliefs

Choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities originated with the work of Ramsey and de Finetti and attained their definitive form in the work of Savage. These probabilities are intended to provide a numerical representation of a decision maker's beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events. In this article, I argue that the choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities involve a tacit convention—namely, state-independent utility functions—that is not implied by the axioms, and, as a consequence, choice-theoretic subjective probabilities, even when they exist, do not necessarily represent the decision makers' beliefs.     

胡风主观战斗精神与创作主体的哲学美学阐释

胡风的以主观战斗精神为核心范畴的文艺思想有其哲学和美学基础。这种哲学美学基础的形成既有着复杂的自身历史文化和现实社会的背景 ,也有着作为理论话语资源上的复杂的理论背景。但胡风确实又力图根据马克思主义经典作家的有关思想来理解文艺的哲学和美学问题。本文通过考察胡风关于作为主体的人的论述和作为创作主体的艺术家的论述 ,对他的主观战斗精神与创作主体的观点进行哲学和美学的阐释。     

试论主体性德育

当代学生价值取向呈现多元化趋势 ,传统德育陷入困境 ,在把握德育宏观目标的同时 ,强调主体性道德教育的主要内容 ,通过主体品德能力的提升、提高认知与辨识能力、提高移情与内化能力、加强学生在德育中的自我教育作用、注重道德践行、培养创新能力等措施 ,突出发挥德育的主体性作用 ,是社会和个体发展的现实需求 ,是德育取得实效的必然选择     

Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change

Willingness to support public programs for risk management often depends on individual subjective risk perceptions in the face of uncertain science. As part of a larger study concerning climate change, we explore individual updated subjective risks as a function of individual priors, the nature of external information, and individual attributes. We examine several rival hypotheses about how subjective risks change in the face of new information (Bayesian updating, alarmist learning, and ambiguity aversion). The source and nature of external information, as well as its collective ambiguity, can have varying effects across the population, in terms of both expectations and uncertainty.JEL Classification  D8, Q51, Q54     

Lexicographic state-dependent subjective expected utility

An additive-across-states decomposition of lexicographic linear utility is easily obtained under a mild structural assumption concerning sufficient richness of acts in the domain of preference assessment, but the vectorial nature of lexicographic utility introduces two complexities absent in the real-valued case. First, the concept of state nullity becomes lexicographic rather than binary; and second, a standard construction for obtaining subjective probabilities from real-valued, state-dependent utilities produces matrices instead of nonnegative real numbers in the lexicographic setting.     

中国近代的主体意识学说

中国近代的主体意识学说是在中国早期启蒙思想的基础上 ,吸收西方主体意识学说 ,并与之交融、碰撞的产物。主体意识学说构架有三个组成部分 ,即利益观、权利观、平等观。主体意识学说顺应近代中国社会由农业文明向工业文明的转化 ,符合历史发展的潮流 ;但由于中国民族资本发展的迟滞、缓慢 ,使主体意识学说向纵深的发展不够 ,同时 ,该学说还存在一些封建糟粕     

Subjective Social Status,Income Inequality and Subjective Perceptions of Mobility (2003-2013)*

Using a sample of over 90,000 urban and rura1 residents from the Chinese Social Survey (CSS) and China Genera1 Social Survey (CGSS) from 2003 to 2013, we analyzed the structural features and influencing factors underlying subjective social status in China. Our findings indicate that over these years, such identification has consistently assumed the shape of a bowling pin: those who “identify with a low social status” account for more than half of respondents, a much higher proportion than in most countries. At the individual level, the net effect on subjective social status of such objective indicators as education, income and occupation has been relatively small, and lessened over the ten years. The correlation between subjective perceptions of mobility and subjective social status is quite strong, but the upward impetus provided by perceptions of upward mobility weakened over the period. At the macro-level, the tempo of economic growth failed to raise the level of class identification, and income inequality had a markedly negative effect. Our research findings further demonstrate that curbing the income gap and increasing opportunities for mobility are important for raising the level of class identification during the transition period.     

金融诈骗罪主观要件探析

金融诈骗罪破坏国家金融管理秩序,侵犯财产所有权。其犯罪构成与刑法规定的其他犯罪一样,必须同时具备犯罪客体、客观、主体、主观四个要件。金融诈骗罪的行为人主观上是否必须具备“非法占有目的”以及金融诈骗罪的主观罪过形式是认定此类犯罪必须正确把握的问题。“非法占有目的”是所有金融诈骗罪必备的主观要件,而不是选择要件。金融诈骗罪行为人的主观罪过形式只能是直接故意,不能是过失,也不能是间接故意。     

主观变量解释主观变量:方法论辨析

社会学经验研究经常会需要处理诸如态度、感受、偏好这样的主观变量，无论从理论上还是方法上，对特定主观变量的理解往往会涉及另外一个主观变量。尽管如此，在具体的研究实践中，社会学者往往对“主观解释主观”的分析进路持有相当程度的保留态度，从而尽可能地采用客观变量来解释主观变量，或者探究主观变量对于客观变量的影响。“主观解释主观”的分析进路究竟有什么方法论上的“缺陷”?更为重要的是，采用什么手段可以尽可能避免这些“缺陷”以拓宽研究者的经验解释能力?这些问题到目前为止都还缺乏系统研究。在此背景下，本文考察了“主观解释主观”的分析进路所存在的混淆偏误问题，并从理论论辩、变量测量和数据分析三个方面讨论了一系列的应对策略。针对每一个应对策略，本文展示了经验实例，并对该策略的优缺点和适用情况进行了剖析和对比。此外，本文也具体分析了诸如因果关系方向、判断混淆偏误的敏感性检验、测量误差等未尽议题。本文希望通过这些讨论能增强社会学解释路径的多样性，促进社会学与其他学科（例如心理学、政治学等）的交流与互鉴。     

颠覆与虚无:莎剧《麦克白》与《哈姆莱特》中的主观性困境

本文通过对比莎士比亚四大悲剧中《麦克白》与《哈姆莱特》两剧主人公的性格,从主观性的角度入手,尝试分析麦克白与哈姆莱特这两个人物的性格特征及其缺陷如何造成其悲剧命运,并进一步揭示莎士比亚塑造这两个人物的现代性意义。麦克白受想象引发的欲望诱惑,犯下弑君罪行,在犯罪之后,又受同样源于想象的恐惧折磨,幻想掩盖罪行,确保安全,反而令自己的罪恶越发深重。麦克白用自己的行动不断颠覆现实,将自身放逐于自然秩序之外。哈姆莱特的困境在于,他用自己高度二元化的形而上学思维来把握世界,在自己的头脑中构建起思维与存在、本质与表象、理想与现实的对立,并在双方的对立冲突中令自己陷入虚无,从而无法完成报仇的使命。莎士比亚塑造的这两个人物,正是后来现代社会中高度主观抽象的现代人的真实写照。     

论非国有投资在西部大开发中的主体地位

确立非国有投资的主体地位是西部大开发的客观要求,也是决定西部大开发成败的关键。目前,西部非国有投资不足的原因主要表现在市场准入难;非国民待遇和自身问题。迫切要求培育非国有投资主体的措施包括创造良好的政策环境;解决民营企业融资难问题,采用BOT融资方式等。     

Objective Tests versus Subjective tests

objective test has only one correct answer, while subjective test has a range of possible answers. Because of this feature, reliability will not be difficult to achieve in the marking of the objective item, while the marking of the subjective items is reliable. On the whole, a good test must contain both subjective and objective test items.     

主观幸福感结构——情感要素和认知要素二元分类图式的诊断

传统生活质量意义上的主观幸福感,是由以情感要素为测量取向的快乐感和以认知要素为测量取向的满意度     

从全球文化融合看中华文化的主体自觉

全球文化融合的时代语境使文化的主体自觉问题日益凸显。20世纪中国文化发展的经验教训告诉我们,不可偏离人类文化普遍价值提倡中国文化的特色、风格与气派。中华文化应基于全球化的历史背景,在清醒的文化反思的基础上,通过与西方进行对话交流的方式为人类提供具有普遍意义的价值资源,使自身成为人类普遍文化价值中的重要元素。     

Social Support and its Correlation with Loneliness and Subjective Well-being: A Cross-cultural Study of Older Nepalese Adults

Population aging in Nepal is a recent phenomenon, due more to demographic changes than to socio-economic development. The study had three goals: to analyze the social support exchange among elderly men and women; to discover the main sources of support in loneliness and subjective well-being in the elderly; and to study the cross-cultural differences in support among elderly Chhetri ( N  = 137, mean age = 69.1 [7.2] years) and Newar people ( N  = 195, mean age = 68.8 [7.7] years) in one ward in Kathmandu. The data were collected using face-to-face interviews. The dependent variables were loneliness and subjective well-being (SWB). The results for both ethnic Chhetri and Newar respondents show that their major support comes from their children living in the same household and their spouses. I conclude that the sources of social support and social support exchange are similar between the two castes/ethnicities and that there are no cross-cultural differences between them in terms of support for loneliness and SWB-life stability, although there are cross-cultural differences in their SWB-life satisfaction. Providing social support to friends and neighbors appears to be related to less loneliness and increased SWB in both castes/ethnicities.