A test for the global minimum variance portfolio for small sample and singular covariance

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - Recently, a test dealing with the linear hypothesis for the global minimum variance portfolio weights was obtained under the assumption of non-singular...     

Inadmissibility of the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the inverse gaussian variance

The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the variance of the inverse Gaussian distribution is shown to be inadmissible in terms of the mean squared error, and a dominating estimator is given. A dominating estimator to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the variance and estimators dominating the MLE's and the UMVUE's of other parameters are also given.     

Sequential estimation of the variance of an unknown distribution

Sequential fixed-width and risk-efficient estimation of the variance of an unspecified distribution is considered. The second-order asymptotic properties of the sequential rules are studied. Extensive simulation studies are carried out in order to study the small sample behavior of the sequential rules for some frequently used distributions.     

A generalized improvement procedure for variance bounds for minimum variance unbiased estimator in inverse sampling

New bounds are obtained for the variance of the minimum variance unbiased estimator of p i n inverse sampling. A generalized procedure for further improving the bounds is also discussed.     

Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimation in lognormal and related distributions

The uniformly mimimum variance unbiased estimators and their variances from independent samples of lognormal distributions are concisely expressed using the hypergeometric functions     

Sequential monitoring of high-dimensional time series

In the paper we derive new types of multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts which are based on the Euclidean distance and on the distance defined by using the inverse of the diagonal matrix consisting of the variances. The design of the proposed control schemes does not involve the computation of the inverse covariance matrix and, thus, it can be used in the high-dimensional setting. The distributional properties of the control statistics are obtained and are used in the determination of the new control procedures. Within an extensive simulation study, the new approaches are compared with the multivariate EWMA control charts which are based on the Mahalanobis distance.     

Linear statistical inference for global and local minimum variance portfolios

Traditional portfolio optimization has often been criticized for not taking estimation risk into account. Estimation risk is mainly driven by the parameter uncertainty regarding the expected asset returns rather than their variances and covariances. The global minimum variance portfolio has been advocated by many authors as an appropriate alternative to the tangential portfolio. This is because there are no expectations which have to be estimated and thus the impact of estimation errors can be substantially reduced. However, in many practical situations an investor is not willing to choose the global minimum variance portfolio but he wants to minimize the variance of the portfolio return under specific constraints for the portfolio weights. Such a portfolio is called local minimum variance portfolio. Small-sample hypothesis tests for global and local minimum variance portfolios are derived and the exact distributions of the estimated portfolio weights are calculated in the present work. The first two moments of the estimator for the expected portfolio returns are also provided and the presented instruments are illustrated by an empirical study.     

A note on minimum variance unbiased estimators of power series distributions

We give a simple theorem which easily enables us to get the minimum variance unbiased estimators of manv useful parametric functions of the parmecer in a left cruncated power series distribution. The theorem can be used in both cases:when the truncation is know and (ii) when truncation point is unknown.     

A new approach for monitoring process variance

ABSTRACT

Control charts are effective tools for signal detection in both manufacturing processes and service processes. Much service data come from a process with variables having non-normal or unknown distributions. The commonly used Shewhart variable control charts, which depend heavily on the normality assumption, should not be properly used in such circumstances. In this paper, we propose a new variance chart based on a simple statistic to monitor process variance shifts. We explore the sampling properties of the new monitoring statistic and calculate the average run lengths (ARLs) of the proposed variance chart. Furthermore, an arcsine transformed exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is proposed because the ARLs of this modified chart are more intuitive and reasonable than those of the variance chart. We compare the out-of-control variance detection performance of the proposed variance chart with that of the non-parametric Mood variance (NP-M) chart with runs rules, developed by Zombade and Ghute [Nonparametric control chart for variability using runs rules. Experiment. 2014;24(4):1683–1691], and the nonparametric likelihood ratio-based distribution-free exponential weighted moving average (NLE) chart and the combination of traditional exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) mean and EWMA variance (CEW) control chart proposed by Zou and Tsung [Likelihood ratio-based distribution-free EWMA control charts. J Qual Technol. 2010;42(2):174–196] by considering cases in which the critical quality characteristic has a normal, a double exponential or a uniform distribution. Comparison results showed that the proposed chart performs better than the NP-M with runs rules, and the NLE and CEW control charts. A numerical example of service times with a right-skewed distribution from a service system of a bank branch in Taiwan is used to illustrate the application of the proposed variance chart and of the arcsine transformed EWMA chart and to compare them with three existing variance (or standard deviation) charts. The proposed charts show better detection performance than those three existing variance charts in monitoring and detecting shifts in the process variance.     

A minimum variance adaptive technique for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing

This report presents numerical results of an approach for parameter estimation and hypothesis testing that does not rely on specific assumptions about the underlying distribution of errors in the measured data. This approach combines robust estimation procedures, the bootstrap method for estimation of parameter uncertainties, permutation techniques for hypothesis testing, and adaptive approaches to estimation in order to obtain the minimum variance estimator or test statistic (within a predefined class) for the data under consideration. The technique produces efficient estimators of central tendency and powerful test statistics, even for small sample sizes. (Portions of this work have been presented in preliminary form (Turkheimer et al., 1996)).     

Chi-Square quantile-based multivariate variance monitoring for individual observations

Under the normality assumption, some statistics for monitoring a multivariate process variance for individual observations can be used to detect a variance shift, but the distribution of their in-control run length has a high variance as well as the median that is extremely smaller than the mean, which leads to many false alarms in the in-control process. In this paper, we propose a chi-square quantile-based monitoring statistic which is free of the problems. The numerical experiments show that the proposed monitoring statistics outperform the existing monitoring statistics in terms of the detection of a shift for the variance.     

MOSUM monitoring for variance change in nonparametric regression models

ABSTRACT

This article considers the monitoring for variance change in nonparametric regression models. First, the local linear estimator of the regression function is given. A moving square cumulative sum procedure is proposed based on residuals of the estimator. And the asymptotic results of the statistic under the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis are obtained. Simulations and Application support our procedure.     

On shortest confidence intervals and their relation with uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators

The aim of this paper is to investigate the possibility of constructing shortest-lenght confidence intervals and give some results and aspects concerning shortest confidence intervals and uniformly minimum variance unbiased (UMVU) estimators.     

On control charts for monitoring the variance of a time series

In this paper we derive control charts for the variance of a Gaussian process using the likelihood ratio approach, the generalized likelihood ratio approach, the sequential probability ratio method and a generalized sequential probability ratio procedure, the Shiryaev–Roberts procedure and a generalized modified Shiryaev–Roberts approach. Recursive presentations for the calculation of the control statistics are given for autoregressive processes of order 1. In an extensive simulation study these schemes are compared with existing control charts for the variance. In order to asses the performance of the schemes both the average run length and the average delay are used.     

Recurrence relations for the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the probability function of the R distribution

We obtain a new technique to calculate the value of the minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE) of the probability function (p.f.) of the R distribution. This technique is based on an investigation of the ratios of r numbers. A recurrence relation for the MVUE of the p.f. of the R distribution is derived. It is interesting that the derived relation does not depend on the r numbers but depends on the ratios of the r numbers. The new method is efficient, convenient and accurate.     

A minimum variance kernel estimator and a discrete frequency polygon estimator for ordinal contingency tables

This paper introduces two estimators, a boundary corrected minimum variance kernel estimator based on a uniform kernel and a discrete frequency polygon estimator, for the cell probabilities of ordinal contingency tables. Simulation results show that the minimum variance boundary kernel estimator has a smaller average sum of squared error than the existing boundary kernel estimators. The discrete frequency polygon estimator is simple and easy to interpret, and it is competitive with the minimum variance boundary kernel estimator. It is proved that both estimators have an optimal rate of convergence in terms of mean sum of squared error, The estimators are also defined for high-dimensional tables.     

Improved R and s control charts for monitoring the process variance

The Shewhart R control chart and s control chart are widely used to monitor shifts in the process spread. One fact is that the distributions of the range and sample standard deviation are highly skewed. Therefore, the R chart and s chart neither provide an in-control average run length (ARL) of approximately 370 nor guarantee the desired type I error of 0.0027. Another disadvantage of these two charts is their failure in detecting an improvement in the process variability. In order to overcome these shortcomings, we propose the improved R chart (IRC) and s chart (ISC) with accurate approximation of the control limits by using cumulative distribution functions of the sample range and standard deviation. Simulation studies show that the IRC and ISC perform very well. We also compare the type II error risks and ARLs of the IRC and ISC and found that the s chart is generally more efficient than the R chart. Examples are given to illustrate the use of the developed charts.     

A unified approach to minimum variance unbiased estimation of a probability function belonging to an exponential family

The problem of minimum variance unbiased estimation of the probability density function of a random variable belonging to an exponential family is considered. The method of estimation proposed in this paper requires the solution of a certain integral equation. For many probability distributions the solution of this equation is given by a known result in integral transform theory.     

A CUSUM control chart for monitoring the variance when parameters are estimated

CUSUM control chart has been widely used for monitoring the process variance. It is usually used assuming that the nominal process variance is known. However, several researchers have shown that the ability of control charts to signal when a process is out of control is seriously affected unless process parameters are estimated from a large in-control Phase I data set. In this paper we derive the run length properties of a CUSUM chart for monitoring dispersion with estimated process variance and we evaluate the performance of this chart by comparing it with the same chart but with assumed known process parameters.     

Subroutines for computing minimum variance unbiased estimators of functions of the parameters in the normal and gamma distributions

In this paper subroutines are given which calculate the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators (UMVUE’ s) of a broad class of functions of the parameters of the normal and gamma distributions. These subroutines employ the new expressions for the UMVUE’ s given recently by Gray, Watkins, and Schucany (1973), Woodward and Gray (1975), and Gray, Schucany, and Woodward (1976). In order to employ the subroutines here the user need only be able to provide a FORTRAN function subprogram to calculate derivatives of the function, either analytically or numerically.