Children as risky investment

This article provides a theoretical model to explain endogenous fertility and use the panel data of 169 countries to analyze the extent to which fertility behaviors are influenced by financial development and social security tax. A negative effect of financial development on fertility supports the evidence that people in countries with lower levels of financial development tend to have more children. Those people in countries, where there is limited access to other risky investments, tend to have more children. In addition, those who are poor are more likely to have more children, which will lower their overall welfare, and further reduce their investment in capital markets. Social security tax also has a negative impact on fertility behaviors.     

Different Contexts and Trends: Latina Immigrant Fertility in the US and Spain

This article provides the first cross‐national assessment of Latina immigrant fertility trends. Specifically, we compare Ecuadorian women in Spain (EiS) to Mexican women in the United States (MiUS). We focus on these two groups because they (1) have similar socio‐economic profiles and (2) are the largest Latina subgroups in their respective host countries. We show that since 2001, the fertility rate of EiS has declined substantially more than the fertility rate of MiUS has. Drawing on census and administrative data in both countries, we assess four factors that might explain this difference: economic cycles, linguistic affinity, labor market participation, and education. We argue that labor market and education factors can best help to explain Latina fertility patterns. We conclude by discussing the findings with regard to contemporary arguments about Latino culture and immigrant fertility, and by describing the study's policy implications.     

Socio-economic fertility theories and their relevance to population policy

A theory of fertility is necessary to assess the justification for family planning and to understand the effectiveness of the programs. 3 possibilities for uses of a theory of fertility are discussed: 1) assessment of population projections, 2) indications of what can be expected from family planning, and 3) assessment of population control projects. Birthrates are high, but fertility rates in developing countries are between 40% and 60% below the maximum possible. Social and cultural elements and economic incentives and constraints play a role in keeping the birthrates high. Economic development is frequently accompanied by a drop in fertility, but economic development implies other simultaneous changes which influence fertility rates. Gary Becker's fertility theory holds that with higher income people would purchase more children, the people behaving as they would in purchasing consumer durables. However, higher income groups frequently have fewer children. Becker says that higher income families want high-quality children who are more expensive. A pure economic theory does not explain all of the fertility variations; it is necessary to take account of the socioeconomic processes that result from economic development. Family planning policies that influence people's motivations should be developed.     

The effects of the Great Recession on American families

The Great Recession was marked by historic rates of unemployment and foreclosure and caused substantial household economic hardship and widespread economic uncertainty. I review recent social scientific research on the effects of the Great Recession on American families. I first generate a set of expectations for how the Great Recession would have affected (a) marriage and cohabitation, (b) fertility, and (c) relationship quality and divorce based on existing sociological and demographic theory and research. I then discuss the key methods that scholars have used to gauge the effects of the Great Recession in these outcome areas. My review of research to date indicates that the recession had modest effects on marriage and cohabitation, but significant negative effects on fertility. Notably, these fertility effects are evident among unmarried and low socio‐economic‐status (SES) women whom prior research has suggested decouple fertility from economic concerns. Finally, there is modest evidence that the Great Recession reduced relationship quality, but it appears that the costs of divorce restrained any increase in dissolution.     

Regional Contexts and Family Formation: Evidence from the German Family Panel

Substantial regional variation in marriage and fertility patterns continues to exist in Germany. Following a multilevel approach, we exploit longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), enhanced by an array of district-level variables, to investigate the extent to which spatial variations in men’s and women’s family formation behaviors result from differences in population composition or from ‘true’ contextual effects. Our multilevel analyses provide evidence for only small—if any—contextual effects on individuals’ family formation behaviors (except for a continuation of significant differences between East and West Germany). However, we still find indication that (1) regional economic circumstances matter in determining individuals’ fertility intentions as well as their transition to first marriage, (2) regional milieus are associated with individuals’ fertility, and that (3) selective family migration takes place. While it seems that social interaction rather than differences in local opportunity structures plays a role here, more research is needed to further substantiate this conclusion.     

Determinants of Variation in State Concealed Carry Laws, 1970–2016

Why do some U.S. states have more permissive concealed carry weapons (CCW) laws than other states? To answer this question, this study tests several plausible social, political, and economic factors thought to affect the likelihood of this outcome over several decades. Models estimated using random‐effects ordered logistic regression reveal that theoretical accounts based on partisan politics, gendered politics, economic threat, and racial threat largely explain variation in CCW laws over time. Tests for interactions, however, reveal that the influence of gubernatorial politics varies according to Republican strength in the legislature and by region. Also, the impact of racial threat on CCW laws is dependent on the crime rate. Overall, this research advances the literature by simultaneously assessing all plausible state‐level CCW policies, incorporating novel threat and political predictors, and utilizing a larger sample size than prior studies.     

The effect of income on fertility among Canadian women

This study compares the fertility of three generations of immigrant women in Canada and examines whether the same set of predictors accounts for differential fertility among the three groups. The analysis of current family size of the three generations and the two age groups, 18–34 and 35–49, of currently married or cohabiting women reveals considerable variation in the effects of sociodemographic and economic variables on fertility. These variations suggest that education and religiosity are more related to the fertility of the first-generation women, religiosity is more related to the fertility of the second-generation women, and religious preference, religiosity, and expected income are more related to the fertility of the third-generation women. Whereas expected income exerts consistently significant effects on the fertility of all the three generations of younger cohorts, relative income affects the fertility only of first-generation women of younger cohorts. She earned her Ph.D. in demography from the Department of Sociology, University of Alberta. Her research interests include differential fertility and new reproductive technologies. Her publications have appeared inSocial Biology, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Journal of Bio-Social Science, Biology and Society, and elsewhere. Direct all correspondence to Dr. Vijaya Krishnan, 11247-79 Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 0P2.     

Rural Income-Generating Programs and Fertility Limitation: Evidence from a Microdemographic Study in Nepal1

Abstract Participation in rural development programs that organize members into local cooperative groups can alter the decision-making environment facing couples to reflect some of the negative consequences of childbearing. This study uses data from Nepal, collected through a combination of ethnographic and survey methods, to test the effects of participation in such a development program on fertility behavior. Results demonstrate that program participants are much more likely to use contraceptives to limit their fertility than are non-participants. The study provides empirical support for theories linking this type of institutional change to fertility and indicates a policy option that can allow some negative consequences of childbearing to affect couples' fertility decisions.     

Understanding hate crimes against immigrants: Considerations for future research

Following the passage of the Hate Crimes Statistics Act of 1990, hate crime research grew with the ability to use data collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Nevertheless, limitations in the data collection led to a dramatic decline in research by the end of the 20th century. This review provides an overview on the development of the hate crime legislation and data collection in order to address and understand the prevalence of hate crimes in the United States. Despite the limitations found in the national hate crime data collected by federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies, a rise in the level of hate crimes against immigrants has renewed scholarly interest in identifying the causes and effects of hate crimes. Recent studies have taken a different approach to explain the rise in the level of hate crimes against immigrants given the passage of anti‐immigrant legislation and inflammatory rhetoric against immigrants. By examining the link between hate crimes against immigrant groups and the demographic, economic, and political changes within the local context, researchers can begin to explain the variation in hate crimes and inform future research as well as local policies and practices to prevent these crimes from occurring.     

Temporal dimensions of the fertility transition: an age-period-cohort analysis of frontier fertility

"This paper evaluates age, period, and cohort effects on marital fertility during onset of the Utah fertility transition (1880-1900). Computerized genealogies are used to derive age-period-cohort fertility rates for 49,842 once-married couples. Age, period and cohort effects on marital fertility are then estimated using Johnson's (1985) relational model. Declining marital fertility in Utah is shown to be explained by both lower fertility levels across periods and increasing age-specific limitation across cohorts. Direct cohort effects on fertility are insignificant. These results are consistent with prior research, and the view that fertility levels were adaptive (in part through birth spacing across ages) to immediate contexts of childbearing while age-specific fertility truncation increased across cohorts (in part through the more general diffusion of contraceptive innovations)."     

DEVELOPMENT AND CRIME: A Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis of Competing Models

Current cross-national research indicates that economic development affects crime rates. Two competing models, the Durkheimian and opportunity, claim to explain this relationship. However, the research evaluating their adequacy is flawed. It attempts to assess the effects of change using cross-sectional designs and variables that measure level of, rather than actual change in, economic development.
This study evaluates these competing explanatory models by analyzing the effects of level of development and rate of growth on crime rates. The findings indicate that both affect the rate and type of crime in ways that refute the Durkheimian and only offer qualified support for the opportunity model. A pooled time-series, cross-sectional analysis that controls for possible spurious factors reveals interesting nonlinear effects that allow further specification of the crime and development relationship.     

Population Growth and the Distribution of Household Income: The Case of Brazil*

Special tabulations of the 1970 census of Brazil are used to estimate fertility and mortality rates by level of household income. Projections to the year 2000 indicate that the poor population will grow substantially faster than the rich population. Projections that simulate upward social mobility and declines in fertility and mortality levels do not alter this conclusion. Differential rates of natural increase by income strata are shown to contribute to an increase in the proportion of the population in the lower income strata, by the end of the century. Although these differentials could be reduced by a more equitable distribution of income, the style of development in Brazil has yielded only a small increase in the real income of the poor. Analysis of the income elasticity of fertility and mortality at different levels of household earnings suggest that this pattern of economic growth will further widen differences in the rate of natural increase by socioeconomic strata. The analysis of the demographic behavior of population subgroups questions the assumption that a lower rate of aggregate population growth in developing countries necessarily contributes to a more equitable distribution of income.     

How female education reduces fertility: models and needed research

Although the correlation between female education and fertility has been documented, the operators that link greater female education to lower fertility at either the individual or aggregate levels have not been specified or submitted to systematic empirical tests. Discovering which aspects of female education account for reduced fertility requires a refined conceptualization of the education-fertility relationship as well as identification of all the causal variables and operators that mediate the effects of female education. A series of propositions from the research literature regarding indirect effects of female education on fertility through effects on age at marriage or first conception, labor force participation, social mobility, economic utility of children, exposure to mass media, knowledge and use of contraception, husband-wife communication, and infant mortality are set forth along with their rationale and empirical support. These propositions are supplemented by 1 on the direct effects and 3 on the interaction effects of female education on fertility. A block-recursive model is presented by means of which the 12 propositions can be brought together and assessed. A methodology for applying appropriate statistical procedures to World Fertility Survey or other high quality data arranged in the form of multivariate models in order to decompose the direct, indirect and joint effects of female education is then proposed and discussed.     

ETHNIC DIVERSITY, SEGREGATION, AND INEQUALITY: A Structural Model of Ethnic Prejudice in Bosnia and Croatia

Widespread ethnic prejudice is an incomplete explanation for the development of war in the former Yugoslavia. However, high levels of prejudice in ethnic enclaves played an important role in increasing ethnic tensions and facilitating the outbreak of war. The purpose of this article is to explain county differences in average levels of ethnic prejudice in Bosnia and Croatia prior to the wars of national separation. We focus on structural characteristics of counties, such as ethnic diversity, economic conditions, and ethnic segregation and inequality, to explain county differences in average levels of prejudice. We also consider the possibility that compositional differences among counties (e.g., differences in average levels of education) explain county differences in ethnic prejudice. We combine survey data and county-level census data collected immediately prior to the wars of national separation and use hierarchical linear modeling techniques to analyze these data. Results suggest that ethnic diversity and ethnic occupational segregation decrease ethnic prejudice while ethnic economic inequality increases ethnic prejudice. Thus, structural characteristics account for some of the county differences in average levels of prejudice. County compositional differences, however, explain a majority of the county variation in ethnic prejudice. These results provide important clues to the origins of pockets of intense ethnic prejudice within diverse societies.     

Female labour force participation and fertility

The levels of labor force participation by women in selected Asian countries were recorded in a series of censuses taken over a period of years. These levels were less influenced than male employment levels by economic conditions and more influenced by cultural traits of the country. Postwar trends seem to have fallen in Korea, risen in Singapore and the Philippines, and remained steady in Japan, Malaya, and Thailand. The limitations of these data are mentioned. In Thailand and West Malaysia greater percentages of women worked in agricultural than non-agricultural employment; in the Philippines, where women did not work so much in agricultural pursuits, their jobs were still in traditional rather than in development industries. In the cities of Bangkok, Manila, and Kuala Lumpur, fertility was lower for working than for non-working women. In rural agricultural areas, the fertility of working women was minimally higher, probably due to economic need of lar ger families. It is concluded that urban life separates the employment and the family roles of working women, leading to lowered fertility; this does not occur in rural areas. The creation of new roles for women alternative or supplementary to marriage and motherhood would result in lowered fertility. In high fertility Asian countries, policies directed toward greater participation of women in non-agricultural work and great er exposure to an urban lifestyle might achieve fertility reductions.     

HOW THE LEGACY OF FRENCH COLONIZATION HAS SHAPED DIVERGENT LEVELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN EAST ASIA: A Time‐Series Cross‐National Analysis

Although many countries in East Asia have achieved high growth rates since the middle of the 20th century, former French colonies in the region have struggled to attain comparable levels of economic development. This article is an attempt to explain this variation in development through a cross‐national analysis of economic growth in East Asia for the period from 1970 to 2007. Results suggest that the underperformance of former French colonies is attributable to their inheritance of colonial institutions that have been unfavorable for domestic investment, international trade, and educational attainment. Overall, conclusions lend support for the idea that long‐term economic development should be understood in terms of path dependence, and that sustained economic growth requires a concerted effort to restructure growth‐adverse institutional arrangements.     

Fertility and adaptation: Indochinese refugees in the United States

"Levels of fertility among Indochinese refugees in the United States are explored in the context of a highly compressed demographic transition implicit in the move from high-fertility Southeast Asian societies to a low-fertility resettlement region. A theoretical model is developed to explain the effect on refugee fertility of social background characteristics, migration history and patterns of adaptation to a different economic and cultural environment controlling for marital history and length of residence in the U.S." The chief source for the data and analyses is the Indochinese Health and Adaptation Research Project (IHARP), San Diego State University. "Multiple regression techniques are used to test the model which was found to account for nearly half of the variation in refugee fertility levels in the United States. Fertility is much higher for all Indochinese ethnic groups than it is for American women; the number of children in refugee families is in turn a major determinant of welfare dependency. Adjustments for rates of natural increase indicate a total 1985 Indochinese population of over one million, making it one of the largest Asian-origin populations in the United States."     

Strain,ethnic competition,and power devaluation: white supremacist protest in the U.S., 1948–1997

Many Western democracies have seen an increase in extreme right mobilization over the past several decades but extreme right mobilization is not a new phenomenon when we look historically. In this paper, we examine fifty years of white supremacist protest in the United States to help shed light on the factors that explain variation in levels of right-wing mobilization. Using annual time-series analysis, we find that traditional strain explanations do not explain these protests but that threats to the traditional economic, political, and social power of whites were critical. Ethnic competition associated with black population growth and political threats stemming from the political power of northern Democrats, a divided federal government, and civil rights protest stimulated this mobilization. These findings support a broadened ethnic competition/power devaluation model of right-wing mobilization that emphasizes the mobilizing effects of economic and political threats to a relatively advantaged group.     

Economic and Social Impacts on Well-Being: A Cross-National Multilevel Analysis of Determinants of Access to Water and Sanitation

Development research identifies water and sanitation access as vital indicators of well-being. Despite recent improvements, billions still lack access. Case studies and cross-national research reveal that economic and social processes are associated with water and sanitation access. However, prior research does not control for factors associated with access at multiple levels of analysis. This analysis uses hierarchical generalized linear models for 640,506 households nested within 49 nations to fill this gap. The findings suggest that household wealth and education have robust effects on water and sanitation access, while national characteristics have smaller effects. Furthermore, intraclass correlation coefficients demonstrate that cross-national analyses miss up to 78 percent of variation by not accounting for subnational variation. While the results highlight the importance of subnational factors, cross-level interactions between household wealth and education and national characteristics reveal how household wealth and education affect access differently depending on national context. This study synthesizes theories of economic growth and societal capabilities at multiple levels of analysis for understanding water and sanitation access within and between countries.     

The Great Recession,Fertility, and Uncertainty: Evidence From the United States

The Great Recession produced the highest rates of unemployment and foreclosure in the United States since the Great Depression. In this article the author examines the consequences of these poor economic conditions for fertility in the United States by estimating the effect of area‐level economic conditions on state fertility in the years leading up to and including the Great Recession. The economic impacts of the Great Recession, captured by state‐level economic conditions, had a strong negative effect on fertility in models with state and year fixed effects. These reductions in fertility were likely caused both by increased economic hardship and increased economic uncertainty.