Contending with the “Double Handicap”

SUMMARY

This article explores the impact of a quarter century of gender politics in presidential elections in the United States stressing the dual importance of differences between men and women, the gender gap, and women as a political force as they have come not only to exceed men in their voting numbers but also in their turnout rate. It reviews the way women's votes have affected presidential campaigns, drawing attention to the effect women's and men's votes have had on the Electoral College which is what counts in presidential elections. It raises the important question of what impact the attention to women voters has had on the public policies of administrations between elections.     

“It Isn’t in the Curriculum”: World History Teachers’ Views on U.S. Presidential Elections

Abstract

This study examines world history teachers’ attitudes regarding teaching U.S. presidential elections. During interviews with nine teachers, participants emphasized that the competing demands of their classrooms negatively influenced their willingness to teach about the U.S. presidential elections generally, and the 2016 Election specifically. The participants reconsidered their stances on not teaching elections during the interviews but struggled to reconcile their role as world history teachers with their priorities as social studies more generally. While elections are part of the civics curriculum and can be easily associated with history courses, this study suggests that greater attention should be paid to how citizenship practices can be understood through world history classes to promote teaching about elections as part of the curriculum.     

The political network in Mexico

The most important political processes in Mexican politics including presidential succession since the 1920s have been conducted within a network whose political rationale has been political stability. All presidential elections have been won by a single political party.We analyzed the role of the network and presidential successions measuring significant relationships using the system UCINET IV. We contrasted computer distributions with historical facts. Applying the structural block model algorithm we found two well differentiated sub-networks, one representing a military-based group and the second a financial-based group.Measuring the network's centrality is one of the main objectives of network analysis for understanding concentrations of power and the distribution of influence in the political system. In this article we evaluate the maximum node and clique network index value concentration for the core of the Mexican network of power.Centrality and power indexes in the network are presented and their results are discussed in connection with cohesiveness.     

Out of Step? Voters and Social Issues in U.S. Presidential Elections

Recent political commentary has argued that the Republican Party is “out of step” with voters on social issues, costing Republicans the 2012 presidential election. This dramatic claim is deserving of scrutiny in its own right and also for the way it offers new perspective on long‐standing controversies concerning the role of social issues in U.S. national elections. We present results that seek to advance established scholarship on electoral politics as well as journalistic claims concerning the rising importance of social issues for elections. Using data from the American National Election Study, we find that social issues mattered to voters in presidential elections from 1992 through 2012. The influence of social issues on voter choice rivals those of attitudes toward defense spending and government provision. We find further evidence that liberalizing trends in social issue opinion consistently benefited Democratic candidates in presidential elections. We consider the relevance of these results for scholarship on voter choice and elections, noting further implications for commentary on the 2012 presidential election.     

Character Counts?: Honesty and Fairness in Election 2000

This article examines the impact that voters’ evaluationsof the candidates’ character had on their vote choicein the 2000 presidential election. We find that while the magnitudeof the impact of character on the vote was roughly equal forboth major party candidates, contrary to common perception,the substantive significance of character evaluations disproportionatelyaffected George W. Bush. Our results indicate the need to accountfor the influence of character in other elections, given thatcharacter issues are a recurring theme in American presidentialcampaigns.     

Winning the Presidential Nomination: National Polls and State Primary Elections, 1936-1972

Using the results of 202 Gallup opinion polls and 248 stateprimary elections, this article develops a general model ofpresidential nomination campaigns. National public opinion isfound to play a major role, and state primaries a much lesserrole, in winning the presidential nomination.     

Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine, 1994–2004: An Overview

The paper attempts a comprehensive and theoretically grounded analysis of all parliamentary and presidential elections carried out in Ukraine in the decade 1994 to 2004. It is organized into four sections. The first deals with the electoral system, how it came into being and has been amended, how it translates votes into seats, the "effective number" of political parties in the electorate and the legislature, and the battle over the electoral system itself during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. In the second section, voting behaviour of the Ukrainian electorate is examined. Using voting data, along with the results of public opinion surveys and reports on the conduct of the various election campaigns, the paper sorts through the relevant determinants of voting choice to identify the most pertinent ones as they operate in the Ukrainian context. Generally speaking, such determinants are: (1) background social characteristics of the voters, including the regional and ethnic factors; (2) the public's assessments of the current political and economic conditions in the country; (3) individual voters' partisan identification and opinions on prominent issues; (4) their retrospective evaluations of the incumbents; (5) leadership qualities of the contenders; and (6) prospective evaluations of parties and candidates as to their expected performance in office. To determine which of these are consistently more important is an essential aim of the paper. The third section assesses the degree to which accountability has been achieved in any of these elections—those to the Verkhovna Rada of 1994, 1998, and 2002, and the presidential elections of 1994, 1999, and 2004. A penultimate section is devoted to evaluating the policy consequences of these elections: what difference have Ukraine's elections made to policies over the past decade? In the concluding portion, a characterization of the emerging party system is given along with a summing-up on the voting behaviour of Ukrainians in the post-communist era.     

A top-down movement with grass-roots effects? Alexei Navalny’s electoral campaign

Today’s Russia is a hostile environment for genuine political activity, and especially for movements that aim at changing the current power structure. This is due to the factually limited manoeuvre space of oppositional actors who face obstacles in the form of repression, surveillance and restricted access to the public sphere. Moreover, society is largely apolitical, with political activity often considered futile, immoral, or dangerous. In this profile, we portray the electoral campaign of the opposition politician and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, who built a popular movement around his bid to participate in the 2018 presidential elections. Although the campaign failed to build up sufficient pressure for Navalny to be granted access to the elections, and despite the strong hierarchy inside his campaign, we argue that it contributed to the politicization of parts of the younger generation in the country’s provinces – which may have greater long-term effects than any concrete projects envisioned or controlled by the campaign’s strategists.     

Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.     

A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy

This article proposes a new measure of the predictive accuracy(A) of election polls that permits examination of both accuracyand bias, and it applies the new measure to summarize the resultsof a number of preelection polls. We first briefly review pastmeasures of accuracy, then introduce the new measure. Afterthe new measure is described, the general strategy is to applyit to three presidential elections (1948, 1996, and 2000) andto compare the results derived from it to the results obtainedwith the Mosteller measures. Then, the new measure is appliedto the results of 548 state polls from gubernatorial and senatorialraces in the 2002 elections to illustrate its application toa large body of preelection polls conducted in "off-year" raceswith different outcomes. We believe that this new measure willbe useful as a summary measure of accuracy in election forecasts.It is easily computed and summarized, and it can be used asa dependent variable in multivariate statistical analyses ofthe nature and extent of biases that affect election forecastsand to identify their potential sources. It is comparable acrosselections with different outcomes and among polls that varyin their treatment or numbers of undecided voters.     

Horse-Race Journalism: Reporting the Polls in the 1976 Presidential Election

Reporting of public opinion polls conformed to a horse-raceimage of campaign reporting during the 1976 presidential election.Journalists avoided prediction, reported segments of the sample,selectively compared results, emphasized spectacles, questionedthe validity of polling, made a few mistakes, and ignored certaindata in their reporting. All these activities reinforced theimage of elections as a sporting event.     

Gleb Nikolaevich Žekulin (1922–2004)

The article investigates Russian print media coverage of the 2004 presidential elections in the period between January 1 and December 31, 2004. The content of six Russian newspapers is surveyed. The article's methodology is based on a combination of content and frame analysis. The former is used to examine quantitative patterns of coverage as well as to identify what topics and issues received media attention. Frame analysis is employed as the method to examine how news was presented and interpreted. The findings of this study demonstrate that all selected media but the official Rossiiskaia gazeta, in spite of significant differences in their politics, were initially reluctant to express their support for Viktor Yanukovych and raised doubts regarding his candidacy until the end of September when Yanukovych came out in support of the official status of the Russian language. At the same time, throughout the period Viktor Yushchenko was portrayed as the candidate backed by the West and thereby considered automatically unacceptable to Russian interests. Furthermore, the Ukrainian elections were often presented not as an internal Ukrainian affair but as another clash between the West and Russia over zones of influence in the post-Soviet space.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

The Structure and Stability of Political Attitudes: Findings from the 1974-76 Dearborn Panel Study

This article examines the structure and stability of publicopinion between the 1972 and 1976 presidential elections. Thedata consist of a four-wave panel study of 800 residents inDearborn, Michigan; interviews were conducted in the springof 1974, 1975, and 1976 and in the fall of 1976 immediatelyafter the presidential election. The paper focuses on the structureof political attitudes, the stability of attitudes, and theimpact of attitudes on the presidential votes. A central thesisis that public opinion can be disaggregated into two clusters—theDisintegration Cluster and the Alignment Cluster—one ofwhich disrupts and one of which reinforces partisan voting.On the basis of correlations between the seven factors makingup the clusters, we anticipate neither a rapid realignment nora disintegration of the party system, but instability, withelection outcomes affected by attitudinal factors salient toa specific campaign. We find signs of increased crystallizationof political attitudes compared to the 1956–1958–1960national panel. Finally, our voting studies indicate that theDisintegration Cluster had a significant effect on the 1972election, but that issues in general had little impact in 1976,once controls were introduced for party identification and candidateimage.     

Breaking Through the Information Blockade: Election and Revolution in Ukraine 2004

The mass media are an important part of modern elections and revolutions. This was certainly the case in Ukraine in 2004 when a key Presidential election erupted into the Orange Revolution and resulted in a change in the country’s ruling political elite. This paper looks at the impact of the mass media on political events in Ukraine during the 2004 presidential election campaign, and suggests that television in particular played a central role in the events which led to the Orange Revolution and its aftermath. It looks at how both the establishment and the opposition used the media to try and achieve their political goals, whether they were successful, and what the implications are.     

ELECTORAL POLITICS AND THE EXECUTIVE VETO: A PREDICTIVE THEORY

We argue that winner-take-all voting in states and the unequal distribution of electoral votes across states in presidential elections makes incumbent presidents rationally place more weight on the preferences of voters in closely contested, larger states when making policy decisions. This hypothesis is tested by examining whether presidential veto decisions are influenced by the floor votes of senators from these electorally crucial states. In a pooled sample of 325 individual bills from 1970 through 1988, we find significant evidence of this behavior by incumbent presidents.     

Simple plurality versus plurality runoff with privately informed voters

This paper compares two voting methods commonly used in presidential elections: simple plurality voting and plurality runoff. In a situation in which a group of voters have common interests but do not agree on which candidate to support due to private information, information aggregation requires them to split their support between their favorite candidates. However, if a group of voters split their support, they increase the probability that the winner of the election is not one of their favorite candidates. In a model with three candidates, due to this tension between information aggregation and the need for coordination, plurality runoff leads to higher expected utility for the majority than simple plurality voting if the information held by voters about the candidates is not very accurate. Received: 12 September 2000/Accepted: 8 November 2001     

Languages of Class in US Party Platforms, 1880–1936

This article will explore the shifting use of class language in party platforms during the Lochner era, a period of increased class polarization, social unrest, and laissez faire judicial philosophy. It explores the ways in which political parties responded to the growing inequality of wealth and the judicial distaste for “class legislation.” Using as a dataset all available party platforms of the presidential elections years during this period, I analyze the impact of class identity and class consciousness on politics and social movements during this time, finding that (1) class language increased during this period, with its sharpest images and depictions found in third party platforms; (2) the use of class language was directly connected to calls for an end to “government by injunction” and very specific proposals for workers; (3) the two major parties often took on some of these specific recommendations in the following presidential cycle or cycles, but without the attendant class language; leading to (4) a general muting of explanations for the cause of industrial conflict (irrecoof industrialncilable interests of labor and capital) in favor of specific reforms leading to government as mediator, picked up primarily by the Democratic Party.     

Casting the 2000 U.S. Presidential Primaries

This article examines the 2000 U.S. presidential primaries as a case study in "casting" by early journalistic and polling choices. Casting is a strong series of candidate expectations expressed by news organizations early in campaigns. Often casting choices are based significantly on early polls (and campaign cash), and sometimes they can become self-fulfilling prophecies as campaign coverage and elections move forward.

The author argues that casting occurs in regularly scheduled and significant news stories. The news choices fulfill both organizational needs and the routines of dramatic storytelling. The researcher examined polls and news coverage in the primary season from January 1 until March 14, 2000. News coverage was determined by daily keyword searches on Lexis-Nexis for each of nine candidates. The researcher tracked not only overall news coverage, but also news attention per polling point. Casting was clear: Al Gore and George W. Bush as extensively-covered front runners, a "serious candidates" field covered more extensively than their initial poll numbers would seem to justify, and nearly invisible "immediate also-rans."     

How Local Social Movement Groups Handle a Presidential Election

How do local social movement groups respond to national electoral politics? Previous studies, often based on aggregated data on public protests, focus on the effects of elections on established social movement organizations (SMOs). Some find that SMOs flourish during election years, taking advantage of the political opportunities that elections pose. Others conclude that elections hurt SMOs, siphoning members and resources. Using ethnographic, in-depth interview, and document data on new and emerging social movement groups (SMGs) in Pittsburgh for 20 months before and after the 2004 U.S. presidential election, we examine how members think about elections and whether and how groups decide to respond to national electoral campaigns. We find that SMGs vary considerably in the strategies of action or inaction they adopt, depending on their changing sense of whether the election poses an opportunity or a threat to the group and that these strategies of action are patterned in path-dependent sequences. We conclude with a discussion of the possibilities for integrating concepts of path-dependency and timing into social movement research.