Population Policies in Developed Countries: How do Australia’S Policies Compare?

This paper compares international population policies with respect to population growth, fertility and immigration, and discusses current attitudes to the demographic situation in developed countries. Only Canada, the United States and Australia have a policy of continuing high immigration, and Australia’s migrant intake per head of population is considerably higher than for the other two countries. An emerging philosophy in Britain and Europe is a focus on “child quality” and the well-being of a near stationary population, rather than continued population growth. There is also an awareness that immigration is not a solution to the ageing “problem” and that there are more efficient non-demographic means of coping with an older population.     

Quality of Life as a Social Representation in China: A Qualitative Study

This study explores the meaning of quality of life (QOL) in China from the perspective of social representations. The data were collected by open-ended individual interviews with 16 ordinary Chinese people. The study shows that social thinking about QOL in Chinese society is activated in five critical domains of life: health, family, work, social relations and the natural environment. Meanwhile, “having” and “being”, the two antinomic, yet dialogical interdependent, interpretive repertoires, have an overarching generative and normative power over the discourse about QOL. They permeate and underpin the different domains of life. Dominated by an “economic logic”, the “having” repertoire constructs these life domains through a set of economic consequences and posits them as resources leading to material possessions. While dominated by an “existential logic”, the “being” repertoire confesses existential meanings to the same life domains, and emphasises the joy derived from them. Thereby, it infers that QOL as a social representation is generated from, and organised around, a central thema of “having” and “being”.     

Life expectancy, fertility, and educational investment

In this study, we develop a model of overlapping generations where adults make decisions on consumption, fertility, and their personal education. We show that under the assumption of exogenous mortality, there are multiple steady states with club convergence occurring when mortality is sufficiently high. If mortality is sufficiently low, there will be a unique, stable steady state, and the economy will converge to a “good” steady state irrespective of where it starts from. Under the assumption of endogenous mortality with “threshold effects,” we find that club convergence will occur if the threshold is sufficiently high; conversely, a low threshold can help the economy to steer clear of the underdevelopment trap.     

Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries

We examine pollution in a developing country where fertility is endogenous and wealth increases welfare through status. When the country has defective environmental laws, it has a comparative advantage in capital-intensive “dirty” goods. Gains from trade due to trade liberalization then increase income and boost population growth. With strong incentives to save, they also stimulate investment, which hampers population growth. Because population growth crowds out labor supply, production of capital-intensive dirty goods first increases and then decreases. This yields a typical environmental Kuznets path: pollution increases at the earlier stages but decreases at the later stages of development.     

Banking on fewer children: financial intermediation,fertility and economic development

This paper shows that financial intermediation can influence fertility and labor allocation decisions by raising market wages. The increase in wages induces some households to abandon “traditional” labor intensive methods of production managed at the household level and supply labor to “modern” sector firms. Since it is optimal for households in the modern sector to have fewer children, the labor allocation decision leads to lower national fertility. A panel VAR using financial intermediation, fertility and industrial employment share data in 87 countries is estimated. The empirical results show that the data are consistent with the theoretical predictions. Received: 20 October 1997/Accepted: 31 August 1998     

Population,projections, and policy: A cautionary perspective

Population projections depend on censuses, vital statistics and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most marked in the less developed countries (LDCs). Long-range projections by international agencies have recently undergone major revisions, while forecasts of the U.S. population have changed drastically over the past four years. The United Nations typically prepares “high,” “medium” and “low” projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. The paper suggests that high and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policy makers, with medium estimates treated more as targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, economic and social plans should be laid for dealing with the population sizes implied by the “high” variants.     

Labor supply responses and welfare effects from replacing current tax rules by a flat tax: Empirical evidence from Italy, Norway and Sweden

This paper employs a microeconometric framework to examine the labor supply responses and the welfare effects from replacing current tax systems in Italy, Norway and Sweden by a flat tax on total income. The flat tax rates are determined so that the tax revenues are equal to the revenues as of 1992. The flat tax rates vary from 23 per cent in Italy, 25 per cent in Norway, to 29 per cent in Sweden. In all three countries the labor supply responses decline sharply with pre-reform disposable income. The results show that the efficiency costs of the current tax systems relative to a flat tax may be rather high in Norway and much lower, but positive, in Italy and Sweden. In all three countries “rich” households – defined by their pre-tax-reform income – tend to benefit (in terms of welfare) more than “poor” households. In Italy and Sweden a majority will lose from a shift to a flat tax, while in Norway a majority is predicted to win. Received: 19 May 1998/Accepted: 02 July 1999     

Framing in Legislation: The Case of Population Policy in the Philippines

This paper investigates the political framing of population in policy discourse through an analysis of legislative documents. Semantic network analysis was conducted and results were interpreted through discourse analysis of the typical arguments identified. Policy texts were classified into three sets: population management, reproductive health and family planning, and anti-abortion and anti-FP. While the “population management” frame focuses on social and economic consequences of population growth, the “reproductive health” frame defines the problem from a health perspective. Both policies propose aggressive FP programs but each frame uses distinct political rhetoric and semantic approach in its arguments. The “anti-abortion and anti-FP” frame identifies two problems: rise in incidence of abortion and existing policy that prohibit health professionals from refusing patients information on contraception. By invoking a moral argument and anchoring on rights, these policies challenge the problem and solutions identified by the first two frames.     

Development challenges and opportunities confronting economies in transition

“Economies in Transition” (hereafter EIT or EITs) are countries in the process of shifting from “command” to “more open”, liberalized, free market economic systems. In addition to achieving major structural adjustments to their economies, the transformational process requires the introduction of a high degree of transparency in both the economic and political spheres of society. The transfer of state assets to private ownership is one part of the process as well, as is the creation or opening of “political space” that permits the emergence of private enterprise, multiparty political systems, and the introduction of a broad range of non-governmental organizations that carry out missions and functions which people themselves prefer to perform. Thus, the process of economic transformation requires a major socio-political-economic paradigm shift...one that places people and their needs at the center of the transformational process. The process is extremely difficult to achieve and is fraught with many dangers for countries that enter into it without substantial guidance from more economically advanced countries. This paper reports on the social development successes and failures of 31 economies in transition over the 15-year period 1990–2005. Included in the analysis are EITs located in East and South East Asia (N = 5), Central and Eastern Europe (N = 10), all 12 members of the Commonwealth of Independent States including the Russian Federation (N = 12), Turkey (N = 1), and the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (N = 3). Using the author’s extensively pre-tested Weighted Index of Social Progress (WISP), the paper reports data at three levels of analysis: (1) WISP performances for all 31 EITs-as-a-group; (2) sub-regional performances on the WISP and its component sub-indexes for each of the six EIT sub-regions included in the analysis; and (3) country-specific performances on the WISP for each of the 31 countries included in the analysis. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2006 International Symposium and Lecture Series on Social Policy sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and held on the campus of Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, 24–27 August, 2006.     

The World Social Situation: Development Challenges at the Outset of a New Century

World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority group conflicts, increasing militarization, among others, are pushing many developing nations toward the brink of social chaos. This paper focuses on worldwide development trends for the 40-year period 1970–2009. Particular attention is given to the disparities in development that exist between the world’s “rich” and “poor” countries as well as the global forces that sustain these disparities. The paper also discusses more recent positive trends occurring within the world’s “socially least developed countries” (SLDCs), especially those located in Africa and Asia, in reducing poverty and in promoting improved quality of life for increasing numbers of their populations.     

Structure of National Perceptions of Social Needs Across EU Countries

Back in 1975, the European Union (EU) Council of Ministers defined the poor as “individuals or families whose resources are so small as to exclude them from the minimum acceptable way of life of the Member State in which they live”. This widely quoted definition leaves room for discussion about what can be considered a “minimum acceptable way of life” in different countries and thus also whether national perceptions of minimum standards vary from one country to the next. The paper explores this latter issue by exploiting the first EU dataset allowing a comparative analysis of the items which citizens in the different Member States consider to be necessary for people to have an “acceptable” standard of living in the country where they live. It assesses the (in)variance of the structure of the perception of social needs between countries on the basis of an extension of the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method, and shows a high level of congruence between the 27 national patterns. An important consequence of this result is that it supports the approach which consists of measuring deprivation on the basis of a same set of (validated) items across all the Member States.     

The why, when, and how of immigration amnesties

This paper deals with granting of an amnesty to illegal immigrants. We consider government behavior with respect to allocations on limiting infiltration (border control) and apprehending infiltrators (internal control) and with respect to the granting of amnesties, the timing of amnesties, and limitations on eligibility for those amnesties. We demonstrate the effects of government actions on allocations and the flow of immigrants, and how the interactions between these factors combine to yield an optimal amnesty policy. We also consider two extensions—intertemporal transfers of policing funds and “fuzziness” in declarations regarding eligibility for an amnesty aimed at apprehending and deporting undesirables.     

Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child

With 2.59 children per woman in 2008, Mongolia appears today as an exception in East Asia where fertility rates are far below the replacement level. Moreover, from its historical nadir of 1.95 children per women in 2005, fertility is on the rise. This paper first presents recent fertility development in Mongolia. Second, based on the experiences of European and East Asian countries, factors contributing to the development of low fertility are discussed in reference to the Mongolian context. Most of these factors are indeed found in Mongolia and could probably contribute to reducing fertility in the future. However, the country also presents cultural-family practices and recently-adopted fertility-family incentives which may support and stabilize fertility rates. These recent fertility-incentives factors and policies adopted by the Government of Mongolia are discussed in the final part from the perspective of equity, efficiency, and efficacy proposed by McDonald (2006b, “An assessment of policies that support having children from the perspectives of equity, efficiency and efficacy”, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006, Special issue on ‘Postponement of childbearing on Europe’, 213–234). The aim is to determine if these measures are efficient to counterbalance and cancel out the depressing fertility effects.     

Disentangling the Circularity in Sen’s Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen’s capability approach as to what constitutes an individual’s resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the “circularity problem” points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this entanglement we suggest a panel vector autoregression approach. We analyze the intertemporal interplay of the above factors over a time horizon of 15 years using the BHPS data set for Great Britain, measuring individual well-being in functionings space with a set of basic functionings, comprising “being happy”, “being healthy”, “being nourished”, “moving about freely”, “being well-sheltered” and “having satisfying social relations”. We find that there are indeed functionings that are resources for many other functionings (viz. “being happy”) while other functionings (“being well-sheltered” and “having satisfying social relations”) are by and large independent, thus shedding light on a facet of the capability approach that has been neglected so far.     

The Social Consequences of Insecure Jobs

Forms of insecure employment have been increasing all over Europe in recent decades. These developments have been welcomed by those who argued that these types of flexible employment would not only foster employment but could also help women, in particular, to positively combine work and family life. This vision was questioned by others who argued that flexible employment could have negative consequences for both occupational prospects and private and family life since it is often associated with greater insecurity and poorer working conditions. Relatively little research has been dedicated to the “social consequences” of insecure employment and its specific implications for work-life reconciliation issues. This paper contributes to this topic by linking research that addresses work-life conflict to the wider body of work dealing with job insecurity. It investigates the consequences of certain employment contracts on private and family life, taking into account information on current family life, future family plans and general well-being. It provides a series of test relating to the extent to which negative consequences in these areas might be attributable to the type of employment contract and how these vary between European countries. Analysis using ESS data from 2004 for western European countries confirms that insecure employment is accompanied by more problematic “social and family” situations. These negative consequences are partly shaped by the specific context provided by the country in question.

Does Individual Secularism Promote Life Satisfaction? The Moderating Role of Societal Development

This study was designed to examine the link between values and life satisfaction, examining the role of culture in this process. Secularism was found to predict life satisfaction scores at a small but statistically very significant level in persons from all nations participating in all four waves of the World Values Survey. The direction and strength of this relationship was moderated, however, by the country’s human development index—people in low-HDI countries consistently showed a negative relationship between secularism and happiness across the four waves of the WVS; people in high-HDI countries initially showed a negative relationship between secularism and happiness in Waves 1 and 2, but a positive relationship between secularism and happiness in Waves 3 and 4. These results thus appear to support a “cultural fit” hypothesis consistently for persons in low HDI countries, and a transition towards a “cultural fit” for persons in HDI countries as data was collected across the four waves. By Wave 4, it is clear that citizens who endorse values consistent with their county’s developmental trajectory are more satisfied with their lives. This study demonstrates the amenability of the data collected by the World Values Survey to individual-level analysis of psychological process that is responsive to the shaping influence of variations in their nation’s societal characteristics.     

The Role of Relative Cohort Size and Relative Income in the Demographic Transition

This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the one hundred-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are used to simulate the effects on fertility of migration from Third to First World countries. This exercise suggests that we get the best of all possible outcomes with migration: population is reduced in “overcrowded” Third World nations, total world population growth is substantially reduced, and scores of children are given the opportunity of growing up with all the educational and health advantages of U.S. residents.     

From Casual Work to Economic Security; The Paradoxical Case of Self-Employment

The term “casual work” is not well defined in the literature and can include a diversity of types of employment. In this paper, we first present an introduction and definition of concepts related to job security and economic insecurity. Second, a view on the main labour market transformations, their causes and impacts, with more accent on self-employment. We will then reflect on policy issues and on how social policies can impact on job security, and this is where we will introduce the new Québec parental leave regime, which is a welcome effort to alleviate insecurity and economic difficulty for self-employed parents, taking gender into account. We will conclude by considerations on the importance of economic security and the policies which could support this, in a context where many stress the fact that “boundaryless” or “nomadic” careers are the way of the future and that workers should simply adapt to this new context.

Aboriginals as unwilling immigrants: Contact, assimilation and labour market outcomes

Like immigrants, aboriginal populations' economic success may be enhanced by the acquisition of skills and traits appropriate to the “majority” culture in which they reside. Using 1991 Canadian Census data, we show that Aboriginal labour market success is greater for Aboriginals whose ancestors intermarried with non-Aboriginals, for those who live off Indian reserves, and for those who live outside the Yukon and Northwest Territories. While these three “facts” could also be explained by a combination of other processes, such as discrimination, physical remoteness, and selection, only the skill/trait acquisition, or “assimilation” hypothesis is consistent with all three. Received: 04 August 1998/Accepted: 12 October 2000     

On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum

This article decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts: “nonstable” momentum and “stable” momentum. Nonstable momentum depends on deviations between a population’s current age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Stable momentum is a function of deviations between a population’s implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the product of nonstable and stable momentum is a very good approximation. The factorization is exact, however, when the current age distribution is stable or when observed fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating nonstable, stable, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the article brings together disparate strands of the population momentum literature and shows how the various kinds of momentum fit together into a single unifying framework.