Branch banking in the year 2000

The topic of branch banking in the United States in the year 2000 is obviously one that has been in the minds of California bankers for some time because California is the largest state in the United States to permit virtually unlimited statewide branch banking. It is a topic that must also be in the minds of a large number of European and Asian bankers as well because several non-U.S. banking systems have already established large branch networks in the United States. It is a difficult topic because no one knows precisely what will be the status of branch banking in the year 1990, let alone the year 2000. This article makes some predictions.     

Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar

Why did Shell—renowned for its scenario planning—find itself so badly adrift with the Brent Spar? And why, later in 1995, was it wrong-footed again in Nigeria? The answers reflect deep currents already clear to the company's scenario writers in the 1980s, but retaining their ability to surprise. The authors conclude that Shell's scenarios have been ‘individualist’, ‘hierarchist’ or some combination of the two; none have adopted an ‘egalitarian perspective’. They also suggest that the ‘Values Shift’ scenario—developed for European Partners for the Environment—may hold clues to future shifts in business strategy.     

Three energy scenarios for the United Kingdom

The general principles of constructing scenarios and using them to explore policy options have been described in an earlier paper¹. This paper summarizes the results of a preliminary examination of the three scenarios described there and referred to as ‘business-as-usual’, ‘technical-fix’ and ‘low-growth’. The investigation departs from conventional discussions of fuel policy in that it emphasizes the management of fuel demand, and the interaction between fuel demand and life-style, rather than emphasizing fuel supply policies. The relationship between life style and fuel demand can be quantified using the methods of energy analysis.² This method is capable of fine disaggregation and relatively high accuracy. However the aim of the studies reported here was to establish the range of feasible options and the types of policies needed to accomplish them. For this purpose high accuracy is not important so considerable data aggregation has been retained. The detailed analyses presented in this paper are estimated to be accurate to ±15 per cent.The first part of the paper sets out the analysis of the base year (1968) on which the future projections are based. This involves explaining the principles of energy analysis and the method of projection used. The next sections examine the three scenarios in some detail, starting with the estimation of fuel demand and then looking at the fuel supply and management policies needed.     

The evolution of the hospital medical director: a historical perspective.

Numerous articles have been written regarding the concept of the Medical Director, especially in the community hospital. Extensive research of the topic yielded little information in a readily available form as to the substantive, historical sequence that led us to the present concept. The material herein represents an overview of my perspective on how we got here and is presented as a based upon which further review may be undertaken by those interested in such endeavors.     

The use of scenarios in corporate planning—eight case histories

In response to an increasingly turbulent environment, many firms are attempting to develop means to assess proposed strategies in the light of plausible alternative futures. Probably the most widely adopted technique for this purpose is multiple scenario analysis (MSA). The extent of MSA adoption among corporations varies considerably depending upon respective planning experience and top management's involvement and interest in MSA itself. The gamut of MSA adoption is examined among eight representative large U.S. corporations. It is clear that, while corporate interest is high, current formal scenario generating methodology is too complex or academic for practical corporate use. Instead, planners are using their own informal approaches to scenario generation.     

Empowered Learners: The New Paradigm for 2000 and Beyond

In the fast-growing new technology-based industrial landscape in the UnitedStates, companies have had to face a major problem. Many job applicants havehad such a poor educational preparation that many companies are required tooffer remedial courses in the basic subjects to ensure employee readiness forsuch positions. Many times, however, the educational approach taken bycompanies is very similar to that which was taken by the schools which havefailed these employees – the typical `chalk and talk' approach. Thisarticle suggests an alternative approach to employee education. Thisresearch-based theory states each individual learns in a unique way which canbe diagnosed and utilized to ensure maximum educational effectiveness. Thisapproach has already been employed in a high school setting, and the resultssupport this approach. The theory is not predicated on school-age studentsalone, hence a transition to the workforce is entirely credible, to thebenefit of companies and individuals alike.     

The use of multiple scenarios by U.S. industrial companies

A growing number of firms have responded to the ‘unpredictable future’ by developing ways to measure their proposed strategies against several plausible alternative futures. Probably the most widely used of these techniques is multiple (or alternative) scenario analysis (MSA).Survey results indicate that approximately 150 of the Fortune ‘1000’ industrials now use MSA in their formal planning processes. Most have begun using MSA within the last 3 or 4 years. Furthermore, a number of other companies are considering its use. Survey results also show that firms do not follow the relatively rigorous procedures as suggested in the literature. Also, MSA seems to be most successful when management is both knowledgable and involved with scenarios from the beginning.     

The medical examiner and deaths in the hospital setting

There has been a perceived increase in the number of medical negligence claims in recent years. The modern metropolitan medical examiner is increasingly called upon to deal with numerous medical, legal, social, and ethical issues. Nowhere is the role of the medical examiner more important than in the investigation of deaths related to surgical, diagnostic, anesthetic, or therapeutic procedures. Medical examiners have an important role in the investigative process. Through utilization of the offices and services of the medical examiner, questions raised by families, physicians, and other hospital employees may be satisfactorily answered a priori, and litigation may therefore be averted.