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1.

The Sharpe‐Lotka continuous time deterministic model of population growth is developed to take account of some possible forms of mother‐daughter fertility association, characterised here by a bivariable measure, A. This leads to a linear double integral equation for which, subject to certain conditions, a finite time solution can be found by Laplace transform methods and thus also model specific results relating the intergenerational fertility effect to the long term population growth rate and magnitude are established. The quantitative implications of the theory are illustrated by a consideration of a general bilinear form of A and in this context numerical results illustrating the finite time growth and also the long term distribution of fertility levels in the stable female population are obtained. In particular, it is shown that different fertility specific subpopulations can coexist indefinitely.  相似文献   

2.
This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.  相似文献   

3.
This paper describes the results obtained in administering a modified Terman intelligence test to 327 Greek children aged from 7 to 12 years. A negative correlation between intelligence and family size was obtained. The results are compared with those obtained in similar inquiries in Britain and the U.S.A.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents a simple general equilibrium analysis of first best allocations in an economy where a consumption good is produced using labor. Production results in pollution, which is a public bad. Pollution abatement can be achieved either by restricting production or by using additional labor. We consider how the first best allocation and Pigouvian tax vary with population size. Consumers are unambiguously worse off when the population is larger, but not necessarily due to increased pollution. In fact, optimal policy on how pollution and labor should vary with population size is very sensitive to preferences and technology. The best response to an increase in population size might be either to increase or to decrease emissions and/or labor, depending on functional forms and parameters. However, given separable preferences and some convexity, the optimal emissions tax increases, and the first best level of per-capita consumption decreases with population size. The paper also considers the extent to which exogenous technical progress can overturn these conclusions. Received August 28, 1996 / Accepted January 27, 1997  相似文献   

5.
This article discusses the family size utility function (FSUF), which portrays the relative strengths of preferences among family sizes, as held by an individual, couple, or group. Derivable from the FSUF are indications of motivation to seek or avoid additional children, indications which may prove useful for understanding fertility decisions and for predicting completed fertility. A method is described for assessing the FSUF with data obtainable by interview surveys, and case studies of actual FSUF’s are presented. The article concludes with theoretical and empirical questions for further investigation of the FSUF.  相似文献   

6.
Judith Treas 《Demography》1981,18(3):321-334
Recognizing that postwar trends in family size derive both from changes in the living arrangements of adults and from changes in the presence of children, this paper develops annual estimates of mean family size, mean members less than 18, and mean members 18 and older by race, by family type, and by age of head. Group differences in the course and source of changes in family size are evident as anticipated on the basis of group differences in family structure, economic resources and life cycle stage.  相似文献   

7.
Dow TE 《Demography》1967,4(2):780-797
In Nairobi, 352 married African adults, 152 men and 200 women, were interviewed on their attitudes toward family size and family planning. The respondents had, on the average, slightly less than three children at the time of interview and hoped to add slightly more than three children to this total. There was little difference in desired family size by sex.About one-half of both men and women had some knowledge of family planning methods, and there was a general interest (75 percent of the men and 90 percent of the women) in learning more. In addition, two out of every three men, and nine out of every ten women, approved of family planning, and even greater majorities of both sexes were willing to have the government of Kenya provide such services.In spite of their approval, however, only 13 percent of the men, and 2 percent of the women, had ever practiced family planning. These findings are broadly comparable to those found in other emerging nations and suggest that knowledge, interest, and approval generally precede use.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract This paper presents a recursive model of economic growth in which particular attention is paid to the demographic assumptions and their effects on the growth of income per head. The labour inputs depend both on the growth of the labour force and on the effectiveness of labour supplied, which in turn depends on the level of consumption per head, given the stock of capital and natural resources. Population growth is a function of two types of birth control programme; one is the subsidized supply of birth control instruments and the other is a bonus scheme which pays people not to have children. In examining the solution of the model, emphasis is placed on the sensitivity of the growth rate to variations in the allocation of the state's budget among various growth and non-growth inducing expenditures, including birth control. A numerical simulation, based on South Asian data, indicates the kind of calculation that can be made in this type offully recursive model.  相似文献   

9.
The concept of reference groups is introduced as a theoretically useful mechanism involved in diffusing collective norms and values about family size and in formation of family size ideals of individual family members. Data were gathered via self-administered questionnaires from a random sample of 140 urban and 55 rural families in the Lansing, Michigan metropolitan area. Findings show major variations by sex. Conformity to a two-child family norm in the family size ideals of wives depends on the extent to which they are exposed to this norm through reference group interaction and on the size of their families of origin. Husbands' family size ideals are influenced by size of family of origin but not by reference group interaction. In further exploring this pattern of findings, important differences emerge by controlling for educational attainment and residential location.Revised version of a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Session "Population: Fertility Behavior," Chicago, September 5–9, 1977. This research was supported by the Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station, Project 3152, "Functioning of the Family Ecosystem in a World of Changing Energy Availability" through the Institute for Family and Child Study and the Department of Sociology. Acknowledgements are due to Shirley Foster Hartley, Nan E. Johnson, Harry Perlstadt, Harry K. Schwarzweller, and the referees of this journal, all of whom made helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Michigan State Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article Number 8245. Requests for reprints should be sent to Daniel C. Clay, Department of Sociology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824.  相似文献   

10.
Family influences on family size preferences   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Several studies have demonstrated important effects of parents’ childbearing behavior on their children’s childbearing preferences and behavior. The study described here advances our understanding of these family influences by expanding the theoretical model to include parental preferences, siblings’ behavior, and changes in children’s preferences through early adulthood. Using intergenerational panel data from mothers and their children, we test the effects of both mothers’ preferences for their own fertility and mothers’ preferences for their children’s fertility. Although both types of maternal preferences influence children’s childbearing preferences, mothers’ preferences for their children’s behavior have the stronger and more proximate effects. Mothers’ preferences continue to influence their children’s preferences through early adulthood; siblings’ fertility is an additional determinant of children’s family size preferences.  相似文献   

11.
Population Research and Policy Review - How diverse is American society and are Americans becoming more or less diverse? Contemporary discussions claim high and increasing diversity, but analyze...  相似文献   

12.
Abstract This paper takes a look at the belief that the number of couples currently desiring to limit family size is sufficiently large (and the intensity of their desire sufficiently strong) that the provision of supplies, services and education - the standard family planning package - will be adequate to bring the birth rate down to acceptable levels within a reasonable time period. Evidence comes from other countries, from attitude surveys and behavioural studies in India, from a priori considerations about what is reasonable to expect, and from certain demographic considerations. The most reasonable conclusion to draw from this evidence is that the belief is not correct. If the birth rate is to be brought down to target levels, additional methods - perhaps monetary incentives - seem to be necessary.  相似文献   

13.
The paper deals with the relationship between the population growth and economic development in Yugoslavia and its republics, covering the period after the Second World War. Yugoslavia is a developing country with a specific demographic and economic structure which makes her unique in Europe. Its territory is comprised of both relatively developed regions where demographic transition is over, and underdeveloped regions with high natural increase of population where the demographic transition is only just beginning. Correlation and regression methods were used to quantify this relationship. The economic development and structural changes are discussed, relating to human factor. An adequate population policy through family planning is stressed as important in obtaining an increased return to scale with a more positive role of demographic factor.  相似文献   

14.
Y Yang 《人口研究》1984,(4):37-41
The population of minority groups has been increasing rapidly in recent years, but the rate of increase is different depending on the region, for various reasons: 1) Population increase rates are high in flat, low regions with warm weather, a good natural environment, and good transportation systems. Productivity is beginning to lag behind population growth (population increased by 90% from 1953 to 1982). 2) Population is increasing at a slower rate in high regions with cool weather and an average natural environment. The productivity growth rate in these regions is about the same (the population increased by 37.5% from 1949 to 1980). 3) Population is increasing at a lower, or even negative, rate in mountainous regions with little flat land and poor transportation service. 4) In some regions, large families are predominant because of tradition and/or religion. In some minority groups, where large extended families are the rule, increases are low because of health problems. People in minority groups are willing to practice family planning, but it is impossible to make one general family planning policy because people in different regions face different problems.  相似文献   

15.
16.
Snyder DW 《Demography》1974,11(4):613-627
The economic theory of fertility postulates that income and prices, broadly defined, are important determinants of family size. What follows is an attempt to test this theory against the behavior of 717 predominantly urban households in Sierra Leone. Husband's education is used as a proxy for income; the "price" of a child is accounted for by wife's education and wife's wage rate. Other important variables are wife's age, a measure of child "quality," wife's age at first birth, and child mortality. The findings of the study tend to lend support to the economic theory of fertility but contain certain peculiarities which indicate a need for further research.  相似文献   

17.
A causal model. relating population size, economic development, military power and antinatal population policy is tested using data from 83 developing nations. The statistical findings are interpreted as supporting two hypotheses: (1) population size is a major determinant of military power; and (2) military power is a minor determinant of anti-natal population policy.  相似文献   

18.
Population aging and endogenous economic growth   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.  相似文献   

19.
By allowing the population growth to be flexible, this paper analyzes the effect of a tax reform that involves an introduction of consumption taxation for social security financing. It is found that population growth and labor supply play an important role in determining the effect of the tax reform. If population growth and labor supply are exogenous, then an introduction of a consumption tax for social security financing, with the payroll tax rate being endogenous, decreases the interest rate and increases capital accumulation. However, if population growth and labor supply are endogenous, then an introduction of a consumption tax for social security financing increases the interest rate and reduces capital accumulation. Received: 26 February 2001/Accepted: 26 August 2001  相似文献   

20.
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