Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

The Tension between Mainstream Competence and Specialization in Adult Protection: An Evaluation of the Role of the Adult Protection Co-ordinator

With the implementation of No Secrets (Department of Health, 2000),the question of how far to specialize in adult protection hasbeen raised for social services departments. Related issuesinclude the extent of specialization within the vulnerable adultclient groups as well as between adult protection specialistsand other workers. This paper draws on an evaluation of therole of the adult protection co-ordinator across two local authoritysocial services departments (the case study) who share adultprotection policies, protocols and procedures but where thespecialist role has only partially been implemented and hasevolved in different ways. It identifies a number of criticalconsiderations for the local implementation of national policy,including the particular model for adult protection specialization,working relationships with district management and care management,decision making and accountability, adult protection case managementand the development of mainstream competence in adult protection.     

Ambiguity and risk taking in organizations

Kunreuther, Meszaros, and Hogarth (1993) argue that insurers are risk averse and ambiguity averse, and that they use cognitive reference points and constraints in making pricing decisions. They further claim that insurer ambiguity may be a factor that has a role in market failure at the industry level. Arguably, ambiguity may be an important aspect of decision behavior. In this article, research on managerial risk taking is reviewed with a focus on the relationship between ambiguity and risk taking. In particular, the effects of the organizational and institutional context are highlighted. It is argued that the political aspects of insurer decision behavior should be considered as well. Implications for further study and understanding of decision making are discussed.     

《红字》含混主题的另一维度解读

霍桑的杰出作品《红字》以其丰富的内涵和对人性的深刻洞察成为学界经久不衰的探讨主题。其中,对其作品主题"含混"、"矛盾"的解读是主流观点。文章试图通过对作者所处时代的流行思想——清教主义和超验主义进行解读,揭示造成其作品主题"含混"、"矛盾"的原因——即霍桑朴素的个人主义思想。     

Ambiguity aversion in the small and in the large for weighted linear utility

The widely observed preference for lotteries involving precise rather than vague of ambiguous probabilities is called ambiguity aversion. Ambiguity aversion cannot be predicted or explained by conventional expected utility models. For the subjectively weighted linear utility (SWLU) model, we define both probability and payoff premiums for ambiguity, and introduce alocal ambiguity aversion function a(u) that is proportional to these ambiguity premiums for small uncertainties. We show that one individual's ambiguity premiums areglobally larger than another's if and only if hisa(u) function is everywhere larger. Ambiguity aversion has been observed to increase 1) when the mean probability of gain increases and 2) when the mean probability of loss decreases. We show that such behavior is equivalent toa(u) increasing in both the gain and loss domains. Increasing ambiguity aversion also explains the observed excess of sellers' over buyers' prices for insurance against an ambiguous probability of loss.     

我国自然资源环境保护的财政政策评价与选择

自然环境是一种公共产品,具有很强的经济外部性特征。市场自身无法对环境资源进行充分有效的配置,这为政府干预环境保护提供了机会和理由。行政与法律的单一强制性手段难以完成环境保护的任务,且执行成本很高,需要与财政政策配合使用。与发达国家相比,我国环境保护的财政政策存在一定差距,只有进一步地调整与改进,才能更好地为环境保护服务。     

Ambiguity Aversion in the Field of Insurance: Insurers’ Attitude to Imprecise and Conflicting Probability Estimates

This article presents the results of a survey designed to test, with economically sophisticated participants, Ellsberg’s ambiguity aversion hypothesis, and Smithson’s conflict aversion hypothesis. Based on an original sample of 78 professional actuaries (all members of the French Institute of Actuaries), this article provides empirical evidence that ambiguity (i.e. uncertainty about the probability) affect insurers’ decision on pricing insurance. It first reveals that premiums are significantly higher for risks when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of the loss. Second, it shows that insurers are sensitive to sources of ambiguity. The participants indeed, charged a higher premium when ambiguity came from conflict and disagreement regarding the probability of the loss than when ambiguity came from imprecision (imprecise forecast about the probability of the loss). This research thus documents the presence of both ambiguity aversion and conflict aversion in the field of insurance, and discuses economic and psychological rationales for the observed behaviours.     

社会政策的新范式:从规范性社会政策到发展型政策

本文提出发展型社会政策作为一种社会政策的新范式,是经历了规范性社会政策到发展型社会政策的转变而逐步确立。文章首先阐述了政策范式的概念,然后从对规范性社会政策的分析过渡到对发展型社会政策的阐释,阐释围绕有关发展型社会政策的理论视角和发展型社会政策的内容而展开,最后在对发展型社会政策的思考中结合我国实际简单论述了发展型社会政策对当前我国社会发展的启示。     

Policy Diffusion and Policy Transfer in Comparative Welfare State Research

For many years, comparative welfare state research has followed a ‘methodological nationalism’ in the sense that countries were treated as independent units. Yet the recent ‘spatial turn’ in comparative politics has also influenced welfare state research. For some years now, the field has been witnessing a growing interest in questions about interdependencies and policy diffusion between countries. In this article, we provide a structured overview of the state of the art in the policy diffusion and transfer literature that deals specifically with social policy. We present and critically evaluate existing theoretical concepts and quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches that enable the analysis of interdependencies between countries. Moreover, we summarize the empirical findings of quantitative and qualitative studies on the diffusion and transfer of social policy, from some pioneering studies to the latest findings. Against this background we point out what we believe to be promising avenues for future research. We focus on five areas: theoretical work on the mechanisms underlying diffusion and transfer; methodological approaches; the impact of domestic institutions and policy characteristics on social policy diffusion and transfer; programme‐specific dynamics; and the systematic combination of horizontal and vertical interdependencies.     

Bridging the Implementation Gap in Poor Areas: A Study of How Municipal Socio‐economic Characteristics Impact Intergovernmental Policy Implementation

This article examines the relationship between local socio‐economic characteristics and implementation performance by analyzing the performance of Brazilian municipalities implementing the Bolsa Família Program, the largest conditional cash transfer programme in the world. Counterintuitively, poor municipalities were found to outperform wealthy ones. Analysis of the interactions between local socio‐economic characteristics and municipal administrative capacity, willingness and intergovernmental relations help to explain why this was the case.     

Conflicts of Interest in Academic Research: Policies,Processes, and Attitudes

Few studies have examined academic researchers' understandings of or attitudes toward conflict of interest policies even though these understandings and attitudes represent a crucial component of both compliance and educational efforts. This study reports the results of a large-scale, cross-sectional survey of research faculty at the nine campuses of the University of California regarding their understandings of and attitudes toward campus conflict of interest policies. We gathered information on their general assessments of investigators with financial ties to industry sponsors and reactions to the process of implementing conflict of interest policies at their respective campuses. We surveyed 1,971 faculty members from the nine-campus University of California system and had 779 responses (39% response rate). The sampled faculty were in the ten departments with the most number of financial disclosures at each campus. We utilized the WebSurveyor software to create a secure, online, 21-item survey. Our study reveals faculty with complex, sometimes contradictory, feelings about academic-industry relationships and highlights perceived gaps in policy and process. Most respondents were concerned about unlimited financial relationships, but a sizable number also viewed campus policies as irrelevant. Some expressed considerable anger over the process of policy implementation, rejecting the policies on the basis of professional and individual self-determination and moral integrity. Our study suggests the need for renewed efforts to encourage awareness of the relevance of conflict of interest policies for all faculty, new efforts to increase understanding of the situational nature of conflicts of interest, and a reexamination of the processes of policy implementation at the campus level.     

生态补偿与横向财政转移支付的理论与对策研究

过去的分税制改革确立的财政转移支付制度不能适应人口、资源、环境的协调发展,探讨适应限制类和禁止类主体功能区建设所需的基于生态补偿的横向财政转移支付制度设计,认为应该根据这两类区域进行生态保护建设的直接成本和放弃发展经济的机会成本,以及受益区域的支付意愿来共同确定横向财政转移支付的规模,最后提出了改革现有以纵向为主的财政转移支付体系,逐渐完善以生态补偿为主的横向财政转移支付制度的政策建议。     

Policy Style and Governing without Consensus: Devolution and Education Policy in Northern Ireland

Devolved government was established in Northern Ireland in 1999 at the same time as Scotland and Wales with a varying range of powers, particularly over the major areas of social policy including education. Devolution in Northern Ireland was set up on the basis of statutory power‐sharing in the core executive with a number of mechanisms to promote involvement by all sections of the community through their political representatives. This marked a departure from the traditional majoritarian and hierarchical model of UK government. The operation of devolved government in Northern Ireland requires a consensus on major policy items requiring legislation. The main aim of the article is to assess whether or not there is a devolved policy style in Northern Ireland and to compare this policy style with the findings of similar analysis in Scotland and Wales. Consideration is then given to the impact of both the distinctive policy processes which reflect the consociational nature of the Good Friday Agreement and wider social, political and administrative factors. Decision‐making on education policy is a totally devolved function and thus serves as an important example of autonomous policy formulation and policy‐making. The three main topics of current policy debate in education are selected for analysis to determine the nature of the decision‐making process and the existence of a distinct devolved policy style.     

南海周边主要国家海底文化遗产保护政策分析及启示

我国海底文化遗产面临着的保护压力不仅来自国内,也来自国外,尤其是南海周边主要国家的开放商业打捞政策导致的挤压效应。联合国教科文组织在《保护水下文化遗产公约》中确定的＂就地保护＂和＂禁止商业开发＂原则在现实的压力下很难实现。目前,我国海底文化遗产保护只能依靠国内立法和《联合国海洋法公约》,而南海周边主要国家在制定海底文化遗产保护政策时都考虑了各种价值的平衡,这些国家平衡各种价值的经验值得我国借鉴参考。我国海底文化遗产具体情况千差万别,应当在摸清大致情况后制定具体而灵活的保护政策。     

社会工作职业化与社会政策

社会工作职业化目前在中国存在社会认同度不高、专业服务组织机构欠缺、社会工作职业制度不健全、高校人才培养与实际部门不衔接以及本土化的社会工作理论亟待建立等问题。社会政策作为支持弱势群体、解决社会问题、促进社会公正的制度化模式,从政府的政策性角色和社会立法这两个维度出发来解决社会工作职业化过程中面临的问题,在推进社会工作职业化进程中起着举足轻重的作用。     

我国社会组织管理政策存在的缺陷分析

改革开放以来,我国社会组织逐步地发展壮大。社会组织在提供公共服务和参与公共政策两方面都发挥着重要的作用。由于党和政府对待社会组织态度的矛盾性,我国社会组织管理政策形成了宏观鼓励与微观限制的根本特征。由这一根本特征衍生的我国社会组织管理政策的种种缺陷,主要包括社会组织成立的门槛过高、对社会组织的活动限制过严、对社会组织内部事务干预过多、对社会组织发展的培育支持不够四个方面。     

New Policy Spaces: The Impact of Devolution on Third Sector Policy in the UK

The development of third sector policy in the UK since 1997 has seen changes which have been of significance both for analysts and practitioners. This period has seen government engagement with and support for the sector extend far beyond the levels found throughout much of the last century. This has led to a growth in the size and scale of the sector and a closer involvement of sector representatives in political debate and policy planning. These changes have taken place at the same time as third sector policy has been devolved to the new administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This article explores the impact of devolution on these policy developments and assesses the extent to which political devolution has led to policy divergence across the four countries in the UK. The conclusion is reached that policy devolution has created important new space for policy development for the third sector across the UK, but that the direction of travel in all four regimes has remained remarkably similar.     

大地震与社会福利政策建议

日本东北关东地区3.11大地震导致的灾难救援问题引发了日本学者对社会福利的关注。文章在考察大地震后灾区受灾者的心情、想法的基础上,从中国中央政府的应对措施、对口支援、临时住房、援助的差距、政府工作与志愿行动等方面梳理了中国四川地震救援的经验,指出日本社会结构正面临着三种危机的考验。第一,超老龄社会与少子化、人口减少社会的人口构造危机;第二,通货紧缩、经济萧条、日元升值、股票下跌等经济危机;第三,大地震、海啸、核电站事故带来的环境能量危机。日本可以参考和借鉴中国的经验开展大地震后的恢复、重建工作。受灾者的生活重建是重建的首要任务。在中央政府、地方自治体常设危机管理组织;明确灾害应对的程序;制定社会政策的基本目标;强化受灾者援助的政策手段;完善医疗、福利、护理服务;发展区域产业和开创就业;提供住房保障;着手能够对抗灾害的坚固的地域社会与街区建设。     

Federalism Policy,Economic Policy and Implementation of the Bailey Report

The Bailey Task Force (BTF) report is reviewed from the perspective of a would-be implementer. The BTF report is partially implementable if its writers were able to resolve three critical issues. First, they might emphasize how its four Program (Block) Grant proposals would influence the economy through opening up employment opportunities. Next, they should spell out how pilot developments of certain Program Grants could proceed with model legislation, and should indicate the contents of that legislation. Finally, they should be more specific about consultative mechanisms involving non-government agencies and local government.     

Combining Work and Care: Carers' Decision-making in the Context of Competing Policy Pressures

Issues related to paid work and care are of global importance, reflecting the twin pressures of population ageing and efforts to increase labour market participation. Informal carers of sick, disabled or older people can experience tensions between policies aimed at support for care and support for employment. This article discusses a study of carers’ decision‐making around work and care, drawing on evidence from interviews with 80 working‐age carers in England. Carers are not homogeneous; their circumstances and needs differ reflecting age, gender, ethnicity, labour market participation, and the condition and/or needs of the person they support. This diversity is illustrated by contrasting rural and urban carers’ decisions and experiences about work and care. Key factors that impact on carers’ decisions are: current and anticipated financial need; the constraints arising from receipt of carers’ and other means‐tested income maintenance benefits; personal identity; job opportunities and scope for flexibility; social services provision; carers’ own health. Distance, travel times and transport are unique additional challenges for rural carers who (wish to) work. These difficulties are further intensified when they intersect with other factors such as the Carer's Allowance, the local labour market and social services provision. The findings are evaluated in terms of the adequacy of current government policy measures.