A graphic representation of projection accuracy

In demographic literature, little attention has been paid to the problem of measuring projection accuracy. Experience with applying the accuracy measure quality of prediction, as proposed by Keyfitz, leads the author to a critical evaluation and elaboration of this accuracy measure. Time series of prediction quality values may show a remarkable temporal instability, partly depending on the chosen bench mark, which seriously hinders interpretation. This interpretation problem may be solved by an easily applicable graphical solution, a convenient short-circuit device to assess a projection's accuracy without restrictions as to size of population or length of projection period.On s'est peu préoccupé jusqu'ici de la mesure de la précision des projections dans les publications démographiques. L'utilisation de la mesure proposée par Keyfitz sous le terme qualité de la prévision, conduit l'auteur à une évaluation critique et à une élaboration de cette mesure de la précision. Des séries temporelles portant sur la qualité de la prévision peuvent conduire à une instabilité marquée au cours du temps, dépendant en partie de la norme choisie, qui empêche toute interprétation sérieuse. Ce problème d'interprétation peut être résolu par une solution graphique d'application facile, court-circuit utile pour évaluer la précision d'une projection sans aucune restriction liée à la taille de la population ou à la durée de la période de projection.     

The duration of lone parenthood in Great Britain

This paper examines whether the duration of lone parenthood in Great Britain is dependent on demographic and economic factors that also affect the living standards of lone parents and their families. The analysis is restricted to female lone parents and is carried out separately for never married lone mothers and previously married lone mothers. For never married mothers, the duration of lone parenthood is defined as the waiting time between an illegitimate birth (i.e. out of marriage) and marriage. For previously married mothers, the duration of lone parenthood is the waiting time between marital dissolution and remarriage. These durations are modelled with hazard regression techniques and data from the marital, demographic and employment histories of the 1980Women and Employment Survey.Cet article examine la dépendance entre durée de parenté sans conjoint et diverses caractéristiques démographiques et économiques qui affectent aussi les conditions de vie des parents seuls et de leurs enfants. L'analyse est restreinte aux femmes sans conjoint et réalisée séparément sur celles qui n'ont jamais été mariées ou au contraire l'ont été antérieurement. Pour les femmes non mariées, la durée de parenté sans conjoint est définie comme le temps d'attente entre une naissance illégitime (c'est-à-dire hors mariage) et le mariage. Pour les femmes ayant eu un conjoint antérieur, la durée de parenté sans conjoint est le temps d'attente entre la dissolution du mariage et le remariage. Ces durées sont analysées à l'aide de modèles de regression à risques, avec des données sur l'histoire matrimoniale, démographique et professionnelle.     

What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.     

The dynamic household as a logical concept and its use in demography

Event history models for aggregate units such as households are complicated by the fact that such entities do not have a well-defined identity through time. The difficulties of applying conventional transition-based models to household change are discussed. More generally, what constitutes time and change are also considered. It is argued that many changes occurring within households such as leaving home are better-considered as fuzzy than crisp phenomena. An alternative perspective based on household change considered as an evolving network is proposed. The implications for sample designs which are designed to track explicithousehold dynamics (such as the Panel Study on Income Dynamics) are discussed. The ways in which particular forms of analysis come to dominate the scientific literature, including those for analysing household change is discussed in relation to non-linear dynamic models. Finally, it is argued that there would be considerable benefits if insights available from the physical, mathematical and biological sciences were to be more widely incorporated within technical demography.Les modèles d'analyse biographique d'unités agrégées, telles que les ménages, sont complexes, car ces entités ne peuvent être définies avec précision au cours du temps. Nous discutons ici les difficultés d'appliquer les modèles habituels basés sur des transitions, aux changements connus par les ménages. Plus généralement, nous analysons ce qui constitue «le temps» et le «changement». Nous montrons ainsi que de nombreux changements connus par les ménages, tels que la décohabitation, sont mieux saisis comme des évévements «flous» plutôt que comme des événements ponctuels. Nous proposons dès lors une autre perspective, basée sur les changements survenus dans des réseaux en évolution. Nous en discutons les implications sur les méthodes d'échantillonnage destinées à tracer l'évolution explicite des ménages (telles que l'étude par panel sur l'évolution des revenus). Les façons selon lesquelles certaines formes d'analyse en viennent à avoir une position dominante dans la littérature scientifique, y compris celles qui permettent l'analyse des changements dans les ménages, sont discutées en liaison avec les modèles dynamiques non-linéaires. Finalement, nous montrons qu'il y a des avantages importants à ce que des approches suivies dans les sciences physiques, mathématiques et biologiques, soient plus largement introduites dans les techniques d'analyse démographique.     

Delayed childbearing in contemporary Spain: trends and differentials

During the last decade, family formation patterns in Spain have undergone a process of substantial transformation. Younger cohorts are increasingly postponing marriage and, once they enter marriage, they tend to delay childbearing. Partly as a result of these timing shifts, period measures such as total fertility rates are likely to underestimate true fertility levels. This study focuses on the first stage of family formation: the transition to motherhood. Following a birth interval approach, the analysis depicts recent trends and differentials in the timing of first birth and explores the role of premarital pregnancies and contraceptive practice on first interval dynamics.Durant la dernière décennie en Espagne, les types de constitution de la famille ont connu de substantielles transformations. Les plus jeunes cohortes prolongent leur célibat et, une fois mariées, tendent à retarder leurs naissances. En partie comme un effet de ces changements temporels, les mesures transversales, telles que la fécondité cumulée, sous-estiment vraisemblablement les vrais niveaux de la fécondité. Cette étude concentre son attention sur la prémière étape de la formation des familles: la transition vers la maternité. En utilisant une approche longitudinale, on analyse les tendances et les différences dans le calendrier de la première naissance et l'on explore le rôle des grossesses prémaritales et des pratiques contraceptives sur la dynamique de l'intervalle entre mariage et première naissance.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations.     

Religious intermarriage in Switzerland, 1969–72 and 1979–82

Patterns of marriage between Protestants and Roman Catholics in Switzerland during 1969–72 and 1979–82 are investigated using magnitudes of marriage attraction, measures that reflect the propensity to marry independent of population composition. The results show high levels of intermarriage, with religious differences becoming less salient in marriage choice. There is no evidence that the propensity to intermarry is influenced by minority group effects.Les modalités de mariage entre protestants et catholiques romains en Suisse sont analysées à l'aide d'une mesure de l'importance de l'attraction matrimoniale, qui reflète la propensité au mariage éliminant l'effet de la composition de la population. Les résultats montrent des niveaux élevés de mariages mixtes, tandis que les différences deviennent moins importantes dans les choix matrimoniaux. Il n'est pas évident que la propensité au mariage mixte soit influencée par des effets dus au fait que certains groupes soient minoritaires.     

Accounting for Genocide: How Many Were Killed in Srebrenica?

The takeover of the UN safearea of Srebrenica by Bosnian Serb forces inJuly 1995 was followed by the killing of alarge number of male Bosnian Muslim civilians,in what has been characterized as the worstmassacre in Europe since World War II. Thisarticle is based on a report submitted asevidence to the UN International CriminalTribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) inthe case against General Radislav Krsti,who became the first person to be convicted ofgenocide at this Tribunal. This case also formspart of the genocide charges against SlobodanMiloevi, Radovan Karadi and RatkoMladi. To our knowledge, this report isunique among genocide studies in its approach,using individual-level data to identify everyvictim in order to arrive at a highly reliableminimum estimate of the number of peoplekilled. This was possible because of efforts byhumanitarian organizations to register peoplewho disappeared during the war as well as theavailability of both pre- and post-conflictdata on individuals. We conclude that at least7,475 persons were killed after the fall ofSrebrenica. We also present estimates of theprobability of being a victim: more than 33%for Muslim men who were enumerated inSrebrenica in 1991.     

From the First to the Second Demographic Transition: An Interpretation of the Spatial Continuity of Demographic Innovation in France, Belgium and Switzerland

This article links spatialindicators of two demographic innovation wavesto historical and contemporary covariates ofboth a socio-economic and a cultural nature. The two waves of innovation correspond to theso-called first and second demographictransitions (FDT, SDT), respectively. Aconnection is made between the emergence ofspatial demographic patterns and A.J. Coale'sthree preconditions for innovation, i.e. readiness, willingness and ability(RWA-model) and to the influence of networks inshaping relatively stable regional subcultures. Since the RWA-model is of the bottleneck type, it is expected that the slowest moving ormost resistant condition will largely determinethe spatial outcome of the two demographictransitions. In the instances of Frenchdépartements, Belgian arrondissements andSwiss cantons, clear statistical associationsemerge between indicators of both FDT and SDTand cultural indicators. This suggests thatthe willingness condition, as reflected inregional subcultures, has been the dominantbottleneck in both waves of demographicinnovation. The Swiss evidence is, however,weaker than that for France and Belgium,despite the fact that, here too, associationsare in the expected direction.     

A research note on Keyfitz's ‘The demographics of unfunded pensions’

Keyfitz (1985), The demographics of unfunded pensions, discusses the performance of pay-as-you-go old age insurance plans under different financial structures. One arrangement is to pay a fixed pension to retirees and collect the necessary contributions from the working population. Another is to fix the contribution per worker and distribute whatever monies are collected to the retirees. Unfortunately, equity problems arise in a pay-as-you-go plan when the population is not stable. Generally, large cohorts will receive greater rates of return than small cohorts when the pension is fixed, while small cohorts will receive greater rates of return when the contribution is fixed. Social security analysts in the U.S. have been concerned with minimizing inequities in cohort rates of return. In considering the US population in 1980, Keyfitz shows that disparities in cohort rates of return are less under a fixed contribution scheme than under a fixed pension scheme. This research note points out that Keyfitz's finding is limited to the specific situation in 1980. When analyzing in a broader framework the mechanics of unfunded pensions and their interaction with nonstable populations, the reverse is true: fixing the pension yields less disparity in cohort rates of return than fixing the contribution.Keyfitz (1985) a déjà discuté dans cette revue des résultats d'un système de répartition pour le financement des pensions de retraite sous diverses conditions financières. Une solution consiste à payer une pension fixée aux retraités et à collecter les fonds nécessaires auprès de la population active. Une autre solution est de fixer la contribution par actif et de distribuer ce qui a été ainsi collecté aux retraités. Malheureusement des problèmes d'équité surviennent dans ces systèmes de répartition lorsque la population n'est pas stable. Généralement, les cohortes nombreuses bénéficieront de plus forts taux de rendement que des cohortes moins nombreuses lorsque la pension est fixée, tandis que l'inverse se produit lorsque la contribution par actif est fixée. Aux Etats-Unis les analystes des systèmes de sécurité sociale ont cherché à minimiser les inégalités dans les taux de rendement. Lorsque Keyfitz considérait la population des Etats-Unis en 1980, il avait montré que les disparités dans les taux de rendement des cohortes étaient moindres sous la condition d'une contribution par actif fixée que sous celle d'une pension par retraité fixée. Cette note the recherche indique que le résultat obtenu par Keyfitz est propre à la situation spécifique de l'année 1980. Lorsque l'on analyse d'un point de vue général le fonctionnement des pensions de retraite et leurs interactions avec des populations non-stables, l'inverse est vérifié : le fait de fixer la pension conduit à moins de disparités dans les taux de rendement des cohortes que le fait de fixer la contribution des actifs.

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This research was undertaken when the author was completing her dissertation at the Graduate Group in Demography at the University of California, Berkeley. The author now operates Lapkoff Demographic Research, a private research consulting firm.     

War demography: The impact of the 1808–09 War on the civilian population of Åland,Finland

A pre-industrial population crisis caused by a war is examined using Finnish historical records. During the War of Finland (1808–09) the Swedish military deployed on the Åland Islands helped spread infectious diseases among the civilian population. The result was a short but intense period of high mortality. This article focuses on the short-term demographic impact of this crisis. Changes in age-specific and sex-specific mortality, fertility, and nuptiality are explored. Mortality increase was notable in all age groups, although older and very young people were more severely affected. A catch-up period in fertility followed a significant decrease in the number of births. Nuptiality decreased only slightly during the war, but a marriage boom owing to frequent remarriages ensued. A projection, assuming that the crisis did not occur, indicates that Åland's population losses were never compensated.L'utilisation des actes d'état civil finlandais permet d'étudier une crise liée à la guerre dans une population pré-industrielle. Les militaires suédois, déployés sur les îles Åland pendant la guerre de 1808–1809, ont propagé dans la population civile des maladies contagieuses. Le résultat en a été une courte mais intense période de forte mortalité. Cet article est centré sur l'effet démographique à court terme de cette crise. Il explore les changements dans la mortalité selon l'âge et le sexe, la fécondité et la nuptialité. L'accroissement de la mortalité a été important dans tous les groupes d'âges, bien que les personnes très âgées et celles très jeunes aient été plus sévèrement frappées. Après une chute significative du nombre de naissances on voit apparaître une période de rattrapage de la fécondité. Quant à la nuptialité elle ne diminua que légèrement durant la guerre, qui fut suivie d'un fort accroissement des mariages dû à de nombreux remariages. Enfin une projection de la population, qui élimine l'effet de la crise, montre que les pertes d'Åland ne furent jamais compensées à l'avenir.     

Crisis or Adaptation – Reconsidered: A Comparison of East and West German Fertility Patterns in the First Six Years after the ‘Wende'

Like other Eastern Europeancountries, East Germany experienced a rapiddecline in period fertility rates after thefall of communism. This decline has beendiscussed along the lines of a crisis andan adaptation to western demographic patterns. The aim of this paper istwofold. Firstly, we discuss the factors whichfoster and hamper a convergence of fertilitybehaviour in East and West Germany. Secondly,we use data from the German micro-census toanalyse the fertility patterns of the cohortsborn 1961–1970. The main result of ourempirical analysis is that East Germans whowere still childless at the time of unificationare quicker to have their first child in thesubsequent years than comparable West Germans. However, regarding second parity births, thepattern reverses. Here, East Germans display alower transition rate than their counterpartsin the West.     

Age difference asymmetry and a two-sex perspective

The paper shows that (a) the age difference between spouses can be and has been different for men and women; (b) male and female age differences can exhibit different trends; (c) the discrepancy is due to remarriage; (d) the age difference fluctuates substantially through time; (e) trends in the age difference are not readily interpretable as reflecting change in the relative status of the sexes; and (f) that trends in the age difference may be linked to marriage market conditions. The paper argues that marriage and fertility data for both men and women are increasingly necessary because of rises in marital breakdown and the associated divergence of the experience of men and women.Cet article montre que (a) les différences d'âge entre époux peuvent être et ont été dissemblables pour les hommes et les femmes; (b) les différences d'âge masculines et féminines peuvent présenter des tendances différentes; (c) la divergence est due aux remariages; (d) les différences d'âge varient de façon importante au cours du temps; (e) les tendances dans les différences d'âge ne sont pas simplement interprétables en termes de changements dans le statut relatif des sexes; et (f) les tendances dans les différences d'âge peuvent être reliées aux conditions du marché matrimonial. L'article montre que les données sur le mariage et la fécondité à la fois des hommes et des femmes, sont de plus en plus nécessaires du fait de l'accroissement des ruptures d'unions et de la divergence des expériences masculines et féminines, qui lui est associée.

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An earlier version of this paper, His and her age gap: asymmetry in the age difference between partners, was a contributed paper to Session F27 of the General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, New Delhi, 20–27 September 1989. A longer version appeared as LS Working Paper 70, issued by City University Social Statistics Research Unit, September 1990.     

The impact of children on the labour supply of married women: Comparative estimates from European and US data

This paper presents estimates of the impact of the age pattern and level of fertility on the probability of labour force participation by married and cohabiting women in twelve Eastern and Western European countries and the United States. Logit models for labour force participation probabilities are estimated conditional on age, age at marriage or union, educational attainment, current parity, and number of years in parity, using data on married and cohabiting women from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Comparative Study of World Fertility Surveys. The estimated models are used to simulate the age profiles of labour force participation conditional on the level and timing of fertility. The simulation results are presented in a series of charts grouped according to similarities in the effects of fertility on the age profiles of labour force participation. Four distinct patterns are identified that depend on the empirical significance of distinct number-of-children and age-of-youngest-child effects. The role of family policies and the extent to which the labour supply reductions associated with childbearing can be interpreted as opportunity costs are considered.Cet article présente des estimations de l'effet de la fécondité par âge et de son intensité sur la probabilité que les femmes mariées ou cohabitantes participent à la population active de douze pays d'Europe de l'Est ou de l'Ouest et des Etats-Unis. Des modèles logit estiment ces probabilités en fonction de l'âge, de l'âge au mariage ou à l'union, du niveau d'études, du rang du dernier enfant né et de la durée écoulée depuis sa naissance. On utilise ici des données sur les femmes mariées ou cohabitantes, issues de l'Enquête mondiale sur la fécondité de la Commission Economique pour l'Europe des Nations Unies. Les modèles estimés permettent alors de simuler les profils par âge de la participation à l'emploi conditionnés par l'intensité et le calendrier de la fécondité. Les résultats de ces simulations sont alors présentés dans une série de graphiques regroupés selon les similarités dans les comportements. Quatre types distincts sont identifiés selon les effets du nombre d'enfants et de l'âge du plus jeune d'entre eux. On considère également ici le rôle des politiques familiales et on montre dans quelle mesure les réductions d'offres d'emploi associées aux naissances d'enfants peuvent être interprétées comme des coûts d'opportunité.     

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: Toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

By the mid-1980s, fertility in most of the world's developed countries had declined to unprecedentedly low levels. Since then, it has declined still further in some, increased slightly in others, and fluctuated in still others. Irrespective of cause, these changes could not have occurred in the absence of substantial control over childbearing.While future increases and decreases are both possible, it is argued that, contrary to the usual demographic expectations for populations exercising substantial control over fertility, fertility in most of these countries will increase to approximate replacement levels and then undergo only minor fluctuations around these levels thereafter.     

The Priscilla Project: Facilitating Equality and the Self-empowerment of At-risk Women in Healthcare Encounters

Women and minorities have consistently experienced marginalization and inequality in the United States, with low-income, immigrant and refugee women experiencing the most severe forms. This paper explores how we can restructure one area in which disparities exist, the primary healthcare system, to provide respectful, compassionate, accessible and adequate care to refugee and low-income women who are medically at-risk during pregnancy. This will be done by reviewing the Priscilla Project, an inner-city program that serves at-risk pregnant women in Buffalo, NY, including the history and persistence of disparities in healthcare, activities and impact of the program, and the uniquely contextualized program paradigm.

How Could a Scientist Become a National Celebrity?

In Korea, scientific excellence has been perceived as one of the key elements of modern nation-building. Moreover, from the late 1990s to the early 2000s, the government represented biotechnology as the future engine of the economy. Hwang succeeded in representing himself as the hero of Korean science by appropriating the public eagerness for scientific achievement. However, he relied on nationalist rhetoric too often against criticisms, which eventually made a considerable part of the public turn skeptical about his integrity. Although various forms of techno-nationalism are still pervasive in Korea, Hwang’s scandal has given a valuable chance for reflection on the relationship of science and nationalism.

Gender Pedagogy in Swedish Pre-Schools: An Overview

Sweden is often hailed as a pioneering country regarding gender equity, but it still has gender equity issues to deal with, and gender stereotyping is sometimes mentioned as one of them. Since the 1990s, Sweden has seen the emergence of many gender pedagogy projects, not least in pre-schools. With gender equity projects among adults yielding limited results, the focus has shifted to children to see if gender stereotypes can be countered in childhood. This article aims to provide an overview of the gender pedagogy projects that have been carried out in Swedish pre-schools. The article covers background, methods and insights gained.

Family Composition and Remarriage in Pre-Transitional Italy: A Comparative Study

It is well known that timing and intensity of remarriage were strictly dependent upon demographic, socio-economic, cultural and legislative factors specific to each community. Thus, the aim of this paper is to compare the extent to which such factors may affect the remarriage patterns of three pre-transitional Italian populations that were different in many respects. By using micro-level data of the sharecropping communities of Casalguidi and Madregolo and the Alpine village of Treppo Carnico, we highlighted similarities and differences in the respective remarriage patterns, in particular, the far lower intensity in the mountain community with respect to the sharecropping ones. Our findings show that along with differences in the demographic system, household structure and land tenure, normative elements concerning widows and the dotal system could in part explain the differentials we found.

The State of American Boyhood

The existence of a “boy crisis” in the United States is a topic of public policy debate. This study examines the state of American boyhood, using not only the commonly reviewed indicators of school achievement but also mental health, premature death, injury, delinquency, and arrests. Boys are in trouble in many areas: low rates of literacy, low grades and engagement in school, high dropout from school, and dramatically higher rates of placement in special education, suicide, premature death, injuries, and arrests. Girls, however, suffer from other problems, especially depression, suicidal ideation and attempts, and eating disorders, and are less likely to achieve at the very highest levels in mathematics and science. This study argues that both boys and girls suffer from characteristic problems, but the issues affecting boys are serious and neglected.

Knowledge, Embodiment, Skill and Risk: Anthropological Perspectives on Women’s Everyday Technologies in Rural Northern China

Knowledge organisation, embodiment of knowledge and knowledge representation are important issues for an anthropology of technology, which seeks to explore the ways in which people find and shape everyday solutions to social and technical challenges. This article discusses the impact of skill and of risk prevention on women’s decision-making, as well as on the domestication and appropriation of new technologies. Particular attention is paid to non-synchronicity as a retarding factor and to the obsolescence of skills as a critical moment in the transformation of socio-technical systems in twentieth century rural northern China as elsewhere.