资产证券化与银行业的重新定位

本文首先概述了资产证券化的运作框架,然后剖析了资产证券化,包括企业资产证券化和银行资产证券化带来的银行职能的转变:银行的部分“信用中介”职能被证券化特设交易载体(SPV)所代替,同时银行增加了新的“服务中介”职能。随后,我们从理论上分析了为什么SPV能够代替银行成为“信用中介”,这是因为SPV具备与银行相媲美的信息处理机制和风险处理机制。最后,我们回顾了发达国家银行业近20多年来业务转型和重新定位的趋势,并分析了这种趋势对中国银行业的启示。从职能上讲,西方发达国家银行的“信用中介”职能在减弱而“服务中介”职能在加强,从业务构成上讲,表外业务正在取代存贷款业务成为银行的核心业务,这代表了银行业发展的必然趋势。处在“入世”过渡期内的中国银行业需要深刻理解这种转变的趋势,进行重新定位。     

Corporate governance and credit rating in Islamic banks: Does Shariah governance matters?

We investigate whether Islamic banks with strong corporate governance benefit from higher credit ratings relative to Islamic banks with weaker governance and whether Shariah governance can affect the credit ratings of Islamic banks or not. We document, after controlling for Islamic bank-specific risk characteristics, that credit ratings are negatively associated with the number of blockholders, CEO power, the supervisory role of the Shariah board and investment deposits; and positively associated with share listing ownership, board independence, women directors, board directors expertise and Shariah board expertise. As well as, credit rating is higher for Southeast Asian Islamic banks and weaker for GCC Islamic banks.     

基于copula的追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价模型

基于追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价问题是指当有银行作为先行者介入一个项目时,后续的其它另一个银行作为追随者银行需要将先行者银行的信用风险和所要参与投资的企业项目风险综合加以考虑、从而独立判断项目投资的总体风险大小并进行投资决策。由于任何一家银行都只能熟悉某一些领域、某一些地区、某一些国家的项目,这就导致追随者银行在无法充分掌握项目信息时,需要以先行者银行的信用风险大小为参照物之一来推断企业项目的总体风险,这不仅仅对投资和贷款业务开展较晚的例如中国邮政储蓄银行这样的商业银行有着重要现实意义,而且对所有商业银行的投资活动都有重要的指导意义。通过先行者银行信用风险与项目风险反映企业项目总体风险,本研究建立了基于Copula函数的追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价模型。本文主要的创新与特色是通过确定先行者银行的信用风险R_F与项目风险R_p的函数关系,进而确定企业项目总体风险R_T,解决了追随者银行所要测算企业项目风险的问题。总体风险模型的稳定性检验表明,在95%的置信水平下,对追随者银行来说,不论多大样本,其所要投资项目的总体风险中的先行者银行信用风险R_F与所要投资的项目风险R_p的重要程度分别为W₁=0.428、W₂=0.572。     

内部控制、过度投资与公司信用风险

本文以2009-2014年中国深沪A股上市公司为样本,研究过度投资对公司信用风险的影响,并检验内部控制质量水平的提高能否有效抑制过度投资导致的信用风险,以及内部控制的这种风险管控作用是否因公司产权性质的不同而有所差异。检验结果发现,过度投资行为会显著增加公司信用风险,内部控制质量水平的提高能有效抑制过度投资导致的信用风险,但上市公司的民营性质会弱化内部控制的风险管控作用。表明在政府的推动下,国企内部控制体系建设已经取得了一定的果效,而民营企业的内控需要进一步提升以降低其发展风险。     

基于熵空间交互理论的CRT网络信用风险传染模型

信用风险转移(Credit Risk Transfer,CRT)网络中信用风险传染已逐渐成为学术界和政策制定者关注的热点。本文基于熵空间交互理论,将CRT网络中银行和投资者之间空间距离与非线性耦合、银行的信用风险转移能力与投资者的风险偏好相结合,建立了CRT网络信用风险传染的熵空间模型。通过数值模拟和对参数的敏感性分析发现,模型可以很好地反映银行和投资者之间的空间距离与非线性耦合、银行的信用风险转移能力、信用风险在投资者节点上的集中程度、投资者的风险偏好和风险承受能力对CRT网络信用风险传染效应的影响机制。研究同时发现:CRT网络信用风险传染具有"本地效应"和"关联抑制效应"。     

认知差异对商业银行信贷配给的影响效应分析

探讨如何缓解商业银行的信贷配给,尽最大可能满足企业特别是小企业的贷款需求是一个具有很强的现实意义的研究课题。本文在以往学者的研究基础上,将银行和企业对投资项目的风险认知差异引入模型分析,研究了风险认知差异程度和信贷配给两者之间的相关性,并基于此进行仿真模拟。结果显示,信贷配给会随着局中人风险认知差异程度的扩大而恶化,因此降低银行和企业在风险项目上的认知差异可以有效的缓解信贷配给的难题,并基于此提出了如何加大对小企业贷款的相关政策建议。     

基于分块极大值模型的商业银行操作风险计量研究

尽管高级计量法由于具有计算精确和节约监管资本等优点而被多数商业银行所青睐,但对于采用哪一种方法来刻画低频高危的操作风险尾部数据却没有一致认识。本文根据巴塞尔委员会关于操作风险计量的原则,采用分块极大值方法和概率加权矩参数估计法,对中国商业银行1990—2009年间的操作风险数据进行了实证。从图形检验和数值检验结果来看,该模型估计的参数具有较高的拟合优度,能够较好地拟合操作风险极端值的尾部分布,为商业银行计量操作风险资本提供了较高的参考价值。     

银行贷款、商业信用融资及我国上市公司的公司治理

本文讨论了银行贷款以及商业信用融资对我国上市公司公司治理的影响.通过对1995到2000年间上市公司CEO更换的研究,我们得到两个结论:第一,在经营业绩为负的公司中,银行贷款与强制性CEO更换存在负向关系,而商业信用融资与强制性CEO更换存在正向关系;第二,在盈利能力一般的公司中,商业信用融资与强制性CEO更换仍为正向关系,但银行贷款与强制性CEO更换却不存在明显的关系.以上结果表明,商业信用融资在CEO强制性更换中起到了积极的作用,改善了上市公司的公司治理,而银行贷款却没有起到相应的作用,甚至有负面的作用.     

Risk based internal auditing within Greek banks: a case study approach

Internal Audit functions within Greek banks are imposed both by the Greek law for publicly listed enterprises (Law 3016/17.5.2002), as well as by the Bank of Greece (Bank of Greece Governor’s Act. Number 2577/9-3-2006). Based on the traditional approach of internal audit within Greek Banks, an inspection of branches and credit on a tick and check (compliance) basis was conducted. Recent research (Koutoupis and Tsamis, Fourth European Academic Conference on Internal Audit and Corporate Governance. Cass Business School, London, United Kingdom, 2006) comes to a conclusion that this approach does not result in adequate coverage of risks. In addition, new international regulations and best practices such as basel committee on banking supervision requirements, COSO enterprise risk management (ERM) suggested framework, as well as The Institute of internal auditors standards for professional practice of internal auditing (standards) were in most cases partially or fully ignored by the vast majority of Greek banks. However, minimum requirements regarding the operation of internal audit functions have been set up by the Bank of Greece, which in most cases are followed by the Greek banks, as well as periodically assessed by the above banking regulator. Risk based internal audit (RBIA) was an unknown concept for the vast majority of publicly listed and non-listed Greek enterprises until very recently. Only Greek subsidiaries of US and UK enterprises were aware of the RBIA audit concept (including big foreign banks which operate in Greece as subsidiaries), as they were periodically audited by group audit functions as an immediate result of relevant risk assessments. Also, the majority of Greek publicly listed enterprises use the audit cycle approach in developing their long term (3 year) and annual audit plans, which means that they audit specific business cycles and activities within a predefined time interval (1–3 years). Audit planning is based on the head’s of internal audit and internal auditors experience without formal application of risk assessment and audit planning techniques. All Greek banks that participated in the corporate governance and internal auditing survey (Koutoupis, Third European Academic Conference on Internal Audit and Corporate Governance, 2005) stated that they follow a risk-based audit approach and develop risk based audit plans; however the vast majority of them could not prove it through a clearly documented risk assessment and risk-based audit plan. Sarbanes–Oxley Act (2002) directed National Bank of Greece to adjust its audit planning process to a risk based one. Also, other big Greek banks (case study 1–3) are now either considering or adopting a RBIA approach, mostly because of Bank of Greece pressures. internal audit functions within small banks still follow the audit cycle approach. In this paper, current status of Greek banks RBIA approach will be discussed based on relevant references, as well as on three case study examples. This research will be based on relevant literature review, as well as authors’ professional experience in past and current projects related to risk assessment, audit planning and RBIA. Specifically, RBIA approach will be critically evaluated based on three big Greek banks analysis on a case study format and benchmark against basel requirements, ERM and standards for professional practice of internal auditing. Based on the relevant assessment, best practices and recommendations for improvement will be identified.     

我国上市银行信用溢价的实证研究

在改进KMV模型、采用信用溢价直观度量银行信用风险的基础上,通过MonteCarlo模拟法估计12家样本银行信用风险的VaR和CVaR值,并与历史模拟法的度量结果进行比较。研究结果表明,历史模拟法高估了银行所面临的信用风险;在样本银行中,中国银行最容易发生极端信用事件,工商银行则相反。     

重随机泊松违约概率下库存商品融资业务贷款价值比率研究

确定合适的质押商品贷款价值比率能够使银行有效缓释库存商品融资业务的信用风险。沿着简化式思路,本文假定借款企业违约事件外生并服从重随机泊松过程,建立了一个有关贷款价值比率的模型。在模型中,本文综合考虑了银行的风险偏好,质押商品的预期收益率和价格波动率,贷款周期和盯市频率等因素的影响,为银行在保持风险容忍水平一致的情况下确定特定库存商品融资业务的相应贷款价值比率提供了科学依据。     

Too Negative to Take Risks? The Effect of the CEO's Emotional Traits on Firm Risk

Except for some recent survey and experimental studies, strategic management research has tended to neglect the influence of emotions on managers' strategic choices. This paper analyses the influence of the stable, long‐term emotional traits of CEOs on an actual business outcome: risk taking. The hypotheses are tested on a sample of 51 Spanish banks and savings banks. Our results show that CEO affective traits influence banks' risk taking. Specifically, our analyses show that managers' negative affective traits are related to lower risk taking as reflected in a lower variability in performance, a lower level of credit risk and a less risky composition of the loan portfolios of the banks they manage. Positive affective traits do not seem to influence the level of risk. These findings partially support ‘affect congruency and generalization’ arguments, and show the need to consider the role of affects when analysing CEOs' strategic choices.     

基于混合整数规划法的企业信用风险评估研究

运用混合整数规划法构建企业信用风险评估模型,并将其应用于我国商业银行信用风险评估中。该模型具有非参数检验特性,不需要样本数据服从正态分布和等协方差,并通过两阶段的分类过程对企业信用状况进行判别。研究结果表明,混合整数规划法有较强的预测贷款企业信用风险的能力。     

供应链融资业务中钢材质押贷款动态质押率设定的VaR方法

异于债券、股票等质押融资业务,存货质押业务动态质押的核心在于预测其长期价格风险。从分析存货质押市场收益率的统计特征出发,以场外现货交易为主的钢材((HRB335)日数据为例,建立能刻画钢材收益率序列异方差性和尖峰厚尾特性的VaR-GARCH(1,1)-GED模型。同时,提出置于多风险窗口下运用样本外预测未来质押期内钢材价格风险水平,给出厚尾分布下长期风险VaR的计算解析式,得出与银行风险承受能力相一致的质押率。进而,基于失效率法则建立长期风险的碰撞序列函数,回测多风险窗口下长期VaR值。实证分析显示,模型得到的质押率在控制好风险的同时降低了效率损失,为商业银行提供一种动态质押率的风险管理模式和框架。     

小样本数据信用风险评估研究

针对我国商业银行信用风险评估有效历史数据样本容量小的特点 ,本文提出了一种小样本情况下的信用风险评估建模技术 ,该方法通过样本的重复使用 ,提高了有限样本的使用效率 ,减小了预测的偏差 .实证结果表明 ,与传统的判别分析方法相比 ,该方法建立的信用评估模型精度更高     

政府隐性保险政策与银行业风险承担行为——对“国家信用悖论”的理论解释

本文在一个两期经济的框架内,研究了国家隐性保险对银行业风险承担行为的影响,给出了隐性保险对不同银行风险选择的激励条件和边界,并对基于政府隐性保险的"国家信用悖论"给予了理论解释.政府隐性保险并不必然鼓励所有银行的风险承担行为,它只是可能地鼓励了问题银行的风险承担激励.政府隐性保险对问题银行的风险承担激励取决于银行自身的资本充足状况和实体经济的微观基础.当实体经济缺乏竞争性的微观基础时,政府隐性保险越有可能鼓励了问题银行的整体性风险承担行为.     

Firm-bank trusting relationship and discouraged borrowers

Firms can be credit constrained both because banks deny credit when they apply for it and because they refrain from filing for the loan in the first place, anticipating rejection. Interestingly the latter aspect has been only marginally investigated, so far and, no previous research pays attention to firm manager’s trust in the loan manager as a factor that can affect firm’s decision to file for a loan. Present research investigates the role of the trust of firm’s managers in the loan managers as a determinant of not being discouraged from applying for a loan by looking at a strictly randomly selected sample of firms in China. By relying on a structural equation model that investigates both the direct and the mediating role of trust we find that the firm manager’s trust in the loan manager affects the firm’s decision to file for a loan by reducing the firm’s risk of being a discouraged borrower. We also discover that trust mediates the role of the firm manager’s experience and the monitoring activity pursued by the bank.     

商业银行集团客户统一授信额度的优化配置研究

企业集团是商业银行重要的贷款客户,商业银行面临企业集团的授信业务风险尤为突出。在结构化模型的框架下,考虑统一授信额度的约束,基于对违约风险控制和贷款收益管理的多目标决策,构建了企业集团成员企业授信额度优化配置模型。示例分析表明,在考虑不同目标重要性的前提下,使用如遗传算法等最优化求解方法,可得到对成员企业授信额度的优化配置方案,从而有助于商业银行积极主动的防范集团客户的信贷风险。     

中国居民性别差异对消费信贷盈利贡献的实证测度——来自商业银行信用卡业务的证据

为了测度性别差异对消费信贷盈利贡献的影响机制，本文基于商业银行信用卡业务103455个账户及其过去一年的交易记录，构建了性别差异对消费信贷盈利贡献的中介效应模型。结果显示：在综合效应方面，女性对消费信贷的盈利贡献显著高于男性。在中介效应和直接效应方面，性别差异通过影响交易频率对消费信贷盈利贡献有显著影响，贷款规模和风险水平对盈利贡献有负向完全中介效应，交易金额、忠诚度、最后一次交易距离目前的时间对盈利贡献无显著影响。说明消费金融机构应改变规模驱动的粗放发展路径，转向提升交易频率的客户经营策略。我国应大力发展女性经济及消费生态，提升整体贡献水平。     

宏观压力测试下商业银行零售信贷产品PD模型预测研究

通过将宏观经济指标与商业银行零售信贷产品住房按揭PD构建宏观变量预测模型，得到预测显著的GDP、CPI、HPI等三个宏观经济指标，再观察其不同滞后阶数组合VAR模型的AICC值，最终选取宏观经济因子高阶项构建回归方程和进行压力测试。研究结果发现：从施压时点开始，不同压力情景下PD均开始缓慢增长趋势，其中重度情景下PD增幅最大。说明使用宏观经济因子的阶乘能更好捕捉上述特征，PD预测模型能准确描述风险传导过程，此举可有效帮助商业银行加强零售信贷领域风险管理。