Service Completion Estimates for Cross‐trained Workforce Schedules under Uncertain Attendance and Demand

Although cross‐trained workers offer numerous operational advantages for extended‐hour service businesses, they must first be scheduled for duty. The outcome from those decisions, usually made a week or more in advance, varies with realized service demand, worker attendance, and the way available cross‐trained workers are deployed once the demands for service are known. By ignoring the joint variability of attendance and demand, we show that existing workforce scheduling models tend to overstate expected schedule performance and systematically undervalue the benefits of cross‐training. We propose a two‐stage stochastic program for profit‐oriented cross‐trained workforce scheduling and allocation decisions that is driven by service completion estimates obtained from the convolution of the employee attendance and service demand distributions. Those estimates, reflecting optimal worker allocation decisions over all plausible realizations of attendance and demand, provide the gradient information used to guide workforce scheduling decisions. Comparing the performance of workforce scheduling decisions for hundreds of different hypothetical service environments, we find that solutions based on convolution estimates are more profitable, favor proportionately more cross‐trained workers and fewer specialists, and tend to recommend significantly larger (smaller) staffing levels for services under high (low) contribution margins than workforce schedules developed with independent expectations of attendance and demand.     

基于FS模型的设计施工总承包联合体领导-成员风险分配策略分析

合理的风险分配是实施设计施工总承包模式的重要保障。在分析联合体成员公平偏好的基础上,通过对FS模型的改进,构建了联合体牵头方与联合体成员之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,从联合体成员嫉妒负效用以及同情正效用两方面,对联合体牵头方的最优风险分配以及联合体成员的最优风险投入进行了均衡分析。最后,采用调研获取的参数分析了不同风险承担比例下联合体成员的公平偏好系数对联合体成员风险投入、联合体成员效用、联合体牵头方效用以及联合体整体绩效的影响。特别地,联合体成员应对不同风险分配方案时会产生不同心理偏好,低分配比例情景下嫉妒偏好的增强会提高自身效用但降低联合体牵头方的效用;高分配比例情景下嫉妒偏好的增强不仅会降低联合体成员效用还会降低联合体牵头方以及整体效用,相反,同情偏好对联合体绩效具有正向调节作用。     

Impact of Absenteeism on Assembly Line Quality and Throughput

Assembly lines function best when every worker is present. When a worker is absent, management must scramble to quickly find a replacement. Usually, the replacement will not be as proficient as the absent worker. This can reduce quality and throughput. We present two assembly line work‐systems models (one for lines with Andon and one for lines without Andon) that show one mechanism whereby absenteeism could impact quality and throughput. We exercise these models to provide insights into absenteeism's impact on quality and throughput. While the paper is written in the concrete terms of automotive assembly, the concepts and results apply to manual assembly lines in general.     

Assembly Line Balancing with Resource Dependent Task Times*

Paced assembly lines are widely used in repetitive manufacturing applications. Most previous research on the design of paced lines has assumed that each task along the line can be performed by only one worker (or a fixed number of workers). In many cases, however, task duration times may be reduced by increasing the number of workers or changing the equipment assigned to work stations. Thus, the problem becomes one of assigning resource alternatives (e.g., workers and/or equipment) and tasks to work stations to minimize total cost for a desired production rate. For this problem, we present three procedures. The first formulates the problem as a shortest path problem and guarantees optimality. The second and third are heuristic adaptations of the shortest path procedure that are capable of solving large problems. The procedures are compared in terms of solution quality and computation time on a set of 128 randomly generated problems for which optimal solutions could be found. Our simulation results indicate that the choice of procedure depends on problem complexity and resource costs.     

基于DNA遗传算法的表面贴装生产线负荷优化分配

印制电路板组装任务的负荷优化分配包含设备约束、工艺约束等大量约束,是电子行业表面贴装生产线中的一类重要优化问题。其优化目标是在生产节拍给定和一定约束条件下,使得不同贴装机负荷均衡,任务分配达到最优。首先,根据不同表面贴装机、不同吸嘴及多种类型元件匹配的的复杂性,提出贴装机任务分配组合优化的问题;然后分析设备和元件的参数、组装可行性、贴装时间,以及贴装优化关系等因素,并提出假设条件,建立了平衡率最大化条件下的负荷分配组合优化的数学模型;最后,针对贴装生产线负荷分配问题的复杂性与特殊性,通过改良编码方式后的DNA遗传算法来优化组合数学模型,计算适应度,并借助MATLAB进行仿真求解,进而找到最优解。结果表明：本文提出的贴装生产线负荷分配方法可以解决带复杂约束的印制电路板组装负荷优化分配问题,提高设备的平衡率和生产效率,促进生产线的优化运行。     

Optimal Auction with Resale

This paper investigates the design of seller–optimal auctions when winning bidders can attempt to resell the good. In that case, the optimal allocation characterized by Myerson (1981) cannot be achieved without resale. I find a sufficient and necessary condition for sincere bidding given the possibility of resale. In two–bidder cases, I prove that the Myerson allocation can be achieved under standard conditions supplemented with two assumptions. With three or more bidders, achieving the Myerson allocation is more difficult. I prove that it can be implemented in special cases. In those cases, the Myerson allocation is generated through a sequence of resale auctions, each optimally chosen by a reseller.     

Presenting Results from Model Based Studies to Decision-Makers: Can Sensitivity Analysis be a Defogging Agent?

The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.     

效率与公平视角下企业及政府的资源配置决策

考虑企业及政府资源配置中效率与公平目标的不同内涵,采用"客户嫉妒"和"个体变权"刻画不同主体的决策行为,分别引入公平参数建立多目标决策模型,并提出基于客户和决策者偏好的公平参数选择方法,实现效率与公平的权衡。将模型转化为变分不等式,设计修正投影算法求解。通过算例进一步分析了不同主体的决策行为差异、公平参数的选择及影响。研究表明：企业与政府的效率最优决策相近,但公平最优决策差异明显;客户公平偏好越高,企业资源配置的分化特征反而越显著;政府决策者公平偏好越高,所有个体间资源配置趋于均等。     

基于人力资本产权的知识型员工激励机制研究

分析了知识型员工的人力资本特征,利用多任务委托代理框架,建立了努力工作和努力学习双任务、业绩激励和产权激励共同作用的委托代理模型,讨论了产权激励与业绩激励的相互作用,分析了努力工作与努力学习行为.研究表明,产权激励可以促进知识型员工努力工作和努力学习,并优化业绩激励;员工拥有其创造的全部剩余收益时具有最优效率,但产权激励需与业绩激励匹配、且产权激励强度越大激励效果越好;作为长期激励的产权激励加强时,员工倾向于努力学习,作为短期激励的业绩激励加强时,员工倾向于努力工作;当缺少产权激励时,员工变得不好学习或倾向于加强外部学习.     

Incentive Schemes for Semiconductor Capacity Allocation: A Game Theoretic Analysis

We study incentive issues that arise in semiconductor capacity planning and allocation. Motivated by our experience at a major U. S. semiconductor manufacturer, we model the capacity‐allocation problem in a game‐theoretic setting as follows: each product manager (PM) is responsible for a certain product line, while privately owning demand information through regular interaction with the customers. Capacity‐allocation is carried out by the corporate headquarters (HQ), which allocates manufacturing capacity to product lines based on demand information reported by the PMs. We show that PMs have an incentive to manipulate demand information to increase their expected allocation, and that a carefully designed coordination mechanism is essential for HQ to implement the optimal allocation. To this end, we design an incentive scheme through bonus payments and participation charges that elicits private demand information from the PMs. We show that the mechanism achieves budget‐balance and voluntary‐participation requirements simultaneously. The results provide important insights into the treatment of misaligned incentives in the context of semiconductor capacity‐allocation.     

A Review of Organizational Stress Management Research:

Evaluation studies of worksite stress management training (SMT) are reviewed and methodological considerations are offered regarding (1) program orientation, (2) experimental design, (3) worker participants, (4) outcome measures, and (5) duration of training effects and worker compliance. Suggestions for additional research include the need to (1) employ additional comparison groups in order to detect training-specific effects, (2) evaluate SMT in blue-collar settings, (3) expand the scope of outcome measures to include employee behaviors, and (4) assess long term effects of SMT and factors associated with worker maintenance of learned skills. It is concluded that SMT has value as a prevention activity in work settings but its use as a treatment strategy for troubled workers is not supported conceptually or empirically. Companies and practitioners are encouraged to view SMT not as an isolated activity but as one component of occupational health and safety activities. A holistic approach which incorporates stress management into company health and safety philosophies is viewed as the optimal strategy.     

Optimal Work-Rest Schedules with a Set of Fixed-Duration Rest Periods

This paper demonstrates that the problem of optimizing the work output of an individual employee, subject to a set of fixed-duration rest periods over a continuous time horizon, can be modeled with a quadratic programming formulation. Exogenous determination of break period durations may result from union contracts, management policies, or necessary lower bounds on break time due to transportation or other requirements. Although the new formulation is more complex than that required for previous models, an efficient solution procedure is presented which avoids the complexities of nonlinear programming. The number of iterations required for convergence is bounded from above by the number of rest periods to be scheduled and all computations are simple. An illustration of the procedure demonstrates that it may be effectively used without computer support. While this research was motivated by the fact that previous work-rest models were not applicable to work horizons which contained a fixed-duration meal break, the procedure can be used to obtain optimal placement for a set of fixed-duration rest periods which may or may not include a meal break. The characteristics of optimal strategies for a set of fixed-duration breaks proofs are shown to have implications for the design of shifts which are potentially more attractive and productive than shifts based upon typical practice. These characteristics are also compared to the general characteristics of optimal policies associated with endogenously determined break durations. This comparison provides insight into the possible consequences of exogenous determination of break durations. This paper concludes with suggestions for additional research.     

MODELING LEARNING CURVE AND LEARNING COMPLEMENTARITY FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND PRODUCTION SCHEDULING*

Research on learning effects in mathematical programming models for optimum resource allocation has called attention to the difficulty in solving such models in their original nonlinear form. In this paper, systematically varying sizes of linear segments are designed to approximate productivity changes along the learning curve, and a single separable linear programming model is developed. With production complementarity and learning transmission between products, a more realistic resource allocation and production scheduling problem emerges. Two cases of learning transmissions are considered, and the model design process, which defines a decision problem that can be solved by a simplex algorithm, is demonstrated.     

基于厂商理论的区域产业边界和最优要素配置结构

区域经济发展核心是产业结构优化升级和资源的优化配置。在全球经济结构亟待优化升级和要素资源呈现不同层次紧缺的大背景下,如何合理配置和引导区域资源配置,优化产业发展方向,确定包括新兴产业在内的产业发展战略,是每一个地区新形势下面临的重要问题。一方面,在经济全球化和零边际成本趋势驱动下,区域产业发展不再局限于区域内部资源禀赋,资源流动性加强,区域产业发展的选择更加广泛和灵活;另一方面,资源日益短缺和经济快速发展推动了劳动力成本和资本成本上升,产业的生产要素配置也随之变化。基于厂商理论,将区域作为市场经济中的生产主体,在考虑区域交易成本和生产要素成本的基础上,构建区域产业边界模型和产业的最佳要素配置结构模型,开创了资源和商品全球化趋势下的产业升级战略的研究范式,探索了成本约束下的产业生产要素优化配置模式,为经济新常态下的区域产业升级战略和资源配置研究提供理论指引,为区域制定个性化的产业发展战略提供实践依据,同时对零边际成本社会趋势下的产业格局进行了初步的探索。研究得出：产业边界能够在一定程度下反映区域产业长期演化趋势,在完全市场经济下产业边界是产业发展的最优规模;区域产业的要素配置格局取决于产业的资源占用和资源贡献情况,最优配置结构受各要素的相对贡献率和相对成本影响;产业边界与成本的关系取决于规模经济与否,在规模经济状态下与生产成本成正相关关系,与交易成本成负相关关系;大部分地区的农业有较大提升空间,最佳资源配置方案是加大机械动能投入。     

中小呼叫中心月度排班优化模型与算法

国内中小呼叫中心制定坐席人员月度排班表时,通常考虑劳动法规合同约束和体现企业自身用工管理诉求。构建坐席人员月度排班优化问题的二次整数规划模型。鉴于问题模型难解性,依据调研企业需求和模型逻辑结构分析,把问题分解成三个子问题。通过构建整数规划模型和提出启发式算法来求出子问题解,从而生成排班问题优化解。问题实例计算表明,模型算法能够有效控制人力成本和兼顾员工同班次管理目标。与周排班方法比较,该方法能够充分体现月度排班人力灵活性来实现人力优化配置。     

Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism

Attacker/defender models have primarily assumed that each decisionmaker optimizes the cost of the damage inflicted and its economic repercussions from their own perspective. Two streams of recent research have sought to extend such models. One stream suggests that it is more realistic to consider attackers with multiple objectives, but this research has not included the adaption of the terrorist with multiple objectives to defender actions. The other stream builds off experimental studies that show that decisionmakers deviate from optimal rational behavior. In this article, we extend attacker/defender models to incorporate multiple objectives that a terrorist might consider in planning an attack. This includes the tradeoffs that a terrorist might consider and their adaption to defender actions. However, we must also consider experimental evidence of deviations from the rationality assumed in the commonly used expected utility model in determining such adaption. Thus, we model the attacker's behavior using multiattribute prospect theory to account for the attacker's multiple objectives and deviations from rationality. We evaluate our approach by considering an attacker with multiple objectives who wishes to smuggle radioactive material into the United States and a defender who has the option to implement a screening process to hinder the attacker. We discuss the problems with implementing such an approach, but argue that research in this area must continue to avoid misrepresenting terrorist behavior in determining optimal defensive actions.     

INDUSTRY RESOURCE ALLOCATION TO BASIC RESEARCH UNDER NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED BENEFITS*

The failure of a free market system to attain socially optimal allocation of resources to research and development (R&D) is a generally recognized problem. However, we are just beginning to understand the types of R&D activities that receive relatively serious underinvestment from specific types of industries and the types of governmental intervention strategies that are likely to be effective and efficient in the correction of that underinvestment. Recently, Joglekar and Hamburg [16] [17] sought answers to these types of questions using models of the resource allocation behavior of firms considering investment in basic research related to their industry. It was assumed that the firms' benefits were exponentially distributed. In the present article, such benefits are assumed to be normally distributed, and an attempt is made to verify the earlier conclusions and policy implications of [16] and [17]. The results are similar for these two substantially different types of distribution, but the earlier conclusions and policy implications are clarified, qualified, and extended.     

BARGAINING WITH SHARED INFORMATION*

This paper formulates and analyzes models of two-party bargaining behavior where each side possesses private information about its preferences that is unavailable to the other. We examine the strategic behavior that bargainers might exhibit when disclosing information either to an arbitrator or to each other. Our results show that when bargaining is over one issue, it is relatively uncomplicated analytically to calculate the optimal strategy, but, despite this, even sophisticated bargainers tend to make wrong assumptions about the behavior of others and to use strategies that are far from optimal. When the bargaining encompasses several factors, computation of optimal strategies becomes very cumbersome and the use of an optimal strategy does not gain a bargainer much over what he could have achieved with truthful revelation. Thus, in theory, truthful revelation is not the best course of action to adopt for a bargainer interested in maximizing individual gain, but in practice the alternatives may involve mistaken assumptions about the behavior of others and may therefore turn out to be inferior to truthful revelation.     

最优交易策略问题的动态求解方法

资产配置包括资产在空间和时间上的配置。现代投资组合理论为资产在空间上的配置提供了比较完备的模型和应用框架,但是资产在时间上的配置问题,学者们的研究甚少。资产在时间上的配置的核心问题是在不同时间对不同资产做出合理的买进、持有和卖出决策,即交易策略设计。本文应用动态规划的原理,分别讨论了存在和不存在最大交易次数限制的情况下,基于总收益率最大的交易策略的求解算法,并利用香港股票市场的数据进行实例分析。本文提出的算法是关于交易的时间跨度和资产数量的多项式算法,计算量和存储空间不因二者的增大而过度增大,在解决大规模问题时也是非常有效的。