A worldwide view of population trends

The UN Population Commission held its 20th session in New York from 29 January to 9 February, with an agenda that included reviews of UN action to implement recommendations of the 1974 World Population Conference; of progress in population work by the UN Population Division; and of the medium-term plan, 1980-1983. Of a total of 29 countries and 22 organizations participating, 5 countries were Asian--India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand. The report on monitoring of trends and policies was the most detailed examination of the global demographic situation yet available, and revealed the following facts: 1) 80% of the population of the developing countries are in countries which the governments have considered that a slower rate of population growth would be desirable; 2) among developed countries, nearly all governments preferred their rate of population growth to remain as high as or become higher than at present; 3) among the developing countries, 6 of the 8 nations having a population greater than 50 million wished to reduce their rate of growth; 4) 80% of all countries considered the rate of population growth the be of basic importance for development; and 5) with respect to mortality, about 75% of all governments of developing countries considered the prevailing level to be unsatisfactory; while among developed countries the same proportion considered the prevailing level to be acceptable. As a result of its deliberations on the report, the Population Commission endorsed the Population Information Network concept of a decentralized network for the coordination of regional, national, and nongovernmental population information activities.     

Strongly pressed by the task of population control

Today, the world population grows at an annual rate of over 80 million. The activities of "the Day of the 5 Billion" sponsored by the United Nations sounds alarm to the world: It is an emerging task to strictly control human reproduction. China, being a developing country, knows only too well the difficulties that over-rapid population growth brings upon economic and social development. Population control is a pressing task. China would like to make the nation prosperous by quadrupling the gross national product (GNP) to US$800 or US$1000 per capita, thus raising the people's living standard to the level of being well-off at the end of the century. The GNP would be quadrupled again to US$4000 per capita with the standard of living raised by the mid-21st century. In order to realize strategic goals, China must strive to control the total population of China at about 1.2 billion at the turn of the century, leaving a better population structure for the next century. At present, China has a population of 1.057 billion and is faced with a new baby boom. It is hoped that under the leadership of the Party's Central Committee and the State Council, governments at all levels, and the people of all nationalities will do a better job in population control by fulfilling the population plan for this year so as to lay down a good foundation for enforcing the plan during the 7th 5-year plan. Meanwhile, China will continue to make new contributions to the stabilization of the world's population together with the UNFPA and other international bodies and friendly countries who support China's population control policy.     

Philippines: decentralized approach shows results

In the Philippines several steps have been taken to meet the challenge of increasing population growth. Commencing with the Republic Act 6365, known as the Population Act (1971) program directives focus on achieving and maintaining population levels most conducive to the national welfare. In 1978 a Special Committee was constituted by the President to review the population program. Pursuant to the Committee's findings certain changes were adopted. The thrust is now towards longterm planning to ensure a more significant and perceptible demographic impact of development programs and policies. Increasing attention is paid to regional development and spatial distribution in the country. The 1978-82 Development Plan states more clearly the interaction between population and development. The National Economic and Development Authority, the central policy and planning agency of the government, takes charge of formulation and coordinating the broader aspects of population policy and integrating population with socioeconomic plans and policies. At present the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is implementing a project known as the Population/Development Planning and Research (PDPR) project with financial support from the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). This project promotes and facilitates the integration of the population dimension in the planning process. It does this by maintaining linkages and instituting collaborative mechanisms with the different NEDA regional offices and sectoral ministries. It also trains government planners in ways of integrating population concerns into the development plan. PDPR promotes the use of population and development research for planning purposes and policy formation. The Philippine Development Plan, 1978-82, recognized that an improvement in the level of 1 sector reinforces the performance of the other sectors. Since the establishment of the National Population Program 12 years ago, population and family planning have been successfully integrated with various development sectors, notably, labor, health, and education. Through the policies of integration, multiagency participation, and partnership of the public and private sectors, the Commission on Population uses existing development programs of government and private organizations as vehicles for family planning information and services and shares the responsibility of implementing all facets of the population program with various participating agencies in the government and private sector.     

New perspectives on population: lessons from Cairo

The lessons from the 1994 World Population Conference in Cairo, Egypt, are summarized in this publication. The topics of discussion include the evolution of population policies, the changing policy environment, demographic trends, and solutions in the form of gender equity, provision of reproductive health services, and sustainable social and economic development. The program of action supported by 180 governments and targeted for 2015 articulated the goals of universal access to a full range of safe and reliable family planning methods and reproductive health services, a specified level of reduction in infant and child mortality, a specified level of reduction in maternal mortality, an increase in life expectancy to 70-75 years or more, and universal access to and completion of primary education. Other features include goals for improving women's status and equity in gender relations, expansion of educational and job opportunities for women and girls, and involvement of men in childrearing responsibilities and family planning. Steps should be taken to eliminate poverty and reduce or eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. Population policy must be integrated within social and economic development policies. About $22 billion will be needed for provision of family planning and reproductive health services by the year 2015. Costs will increase over the 10-year period due to the increased population to be served. Per person user costs for family planning alone are higher in countries without infrastructure and technical skills. Actual costs vary with the cost of contraceptive supplies, patterns of use, and efficiency of delivery systems. Although the plan offers 16 chapters worth of advice and recommends 243 specific actions, countries will have to be selective due to cost limitations. The 20/20 Initiative is proposed for sharing social service costs between international donors (20%) and host countries (20%). A separate UN projection of need is for 33% of support from international donors for family planning and related programs. The constraints to the implementation of the action plan are identified as the rate of demographic change, the extent of public support for population limitation and provision of family planning services, and potential conflicts of interests and funding between cooperating agencies. The World Bank has developed guidelines for policy development according to a country's identification as an emergent, transitional, or advanced country.     

World Population Day '93 observed

President Abdur Rahman Biswas inaugurated the World Population Day '93 at the Osmani Memorial Hall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on July 11. He stressed the importance of reducing the national population growth rate from 2.03% in 1923 to 1.82% by the 1995. The event was organized jointly by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the Directorate of Family Planning, and the United Nations Population fund (UNFPA). The president expressed his deep concern over the population growth rates in developing countries, which are much higher than resources. He noted with satisfaction that 40% of the eligible couples in the country practice family planning (FP) and expressed hope that this could be raised to 50% by 1995. If the program becomes successful, ideal families would consist of two children by 2005. He later presented prizes and certificates to field workers, ulemas, traditional birth attendants, FP depot holders, and the workers of nongovernmental organizations for their commendable services in Fp and maternal-child health services. The Health and Family Welfare minister in his speech warned that if the current population growth is not checked, the consequences would be disastrous, which could be averted by adopting new strategies. The deputy minister for Health and Family Welfare illustrated the threat of population escalation and recounted some of the recent government control measures. The secretary, Ministry of Health Family Welfare, said that at the present rate of growth the Bangladeshi population would double in 34 years. The director general, Directorate of Family Planning, said that the FP program has become accountable with a system of incentives and disincentives. Earlier, the UNFPA country director in his speech remarked that it was crucial for the entire world to solve the population problem. In the morning, in the main cities, hundreds of people involved in national FP activities paraded to demonstrate the social legitimacy of the Bangladeshi Fp program.     

The United Nations on the Implementation of the Cairo Program of Action

Progress and challenges in implementing strategies on population and development were the focus of a Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly that met at UN headquarters in New York, 30 June-2 July 1999. Participating at the Assembly were representatives of nearly 180 governments, with some 150 of these, and a number of observers and nongovernmental organizations, making statements. The delegates reviewed and appraised the implementation of the Program of Action adopted at the International Conference on Population and Development held at Cairo in 1994. The main topics discussed concerned women's rights, reproductive health issues, and abortion. The Assembly's work culminated in the adoption of a 106-paragraph statement titled Key actions…, formally issued as United Nations Document A/S-21/5. The document is reprinted below in full. It affirms the comprehensive approach to population and development issues articulated at the Cairo conference and identifies needs for further action. Also reproduced below is the address delivered at the Special Session by Kofi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations. According to a popular lapidary characterization of the program adopted at the 1994 conference, that program concluded that “population is not about numbers.” Thus the Secretary-General's address is particularly notable for a clear affirmation of the importance of the quantitative dimension of the population issue. “[W]e have to stabilize the population of this planet. Quite simply, there is a limit to the pressures our global environment can stand.”     

ASEAN projects reviewed

The ASEAN Population Expert Group met in Manila and was followed by a meeting of the ASEAN heads of population programs, during the period November 5-10, 1979. Heads of population programs from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines attended. The meetings were held to review progress-to-date on phase 1 projects and to consider the development of an expanded population program. 5 projects funded by UNFPA are reviewed in tabular form with the project, the sponsoring country, date of implementation, data analysis, and date of completion. Suggestions were made for improving and extending these projects and it was also suggested that all projects being developed and proposed should include a section on use of research. 7 new projects were proposed as phase 2 projects. The 1st, sponsored by Malaysia, deals with women in development; project 2, lead by Thailand, will investigate population movement and its effect on development; project 3, led by the Philippines, will develop and strengthen national population information systems and networks in ASEAN countries; project 4, led by Indonesia, is directed towards institutional development and exchanges of personnel; project 5, led by the Philippines, will examine population and development dynamics and the man/resources balance; project 6, led by Thailand, will develop ASEAN social indicators; and project 7, led by Indonesia and Malaysia, will make a comprehensive analysis of existing medical/health care and family planning systems. It was recommended that an executive director of the proposed ASEAN population coordination unit should be appointed to expedite the recommendations of the meeting related to preparation and submission of phase 2 project proposals.     

Cairo and the changing definition of population and development issues

The goal of the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), held in Cairo in September 1994, was to agree on a Programme of Action in the field of population and development which would supersede the Plan of Action agreed to at Bucharest in 1974 and subsequently amended ten years later in Mexico City. The main purpose of the present paper is to characterize some of the principal intellectual and ideological developments of the last 20 years which have had an impact on the definition of this goal. I conclude with some brief comments on the Programme of Action adopted by consensus at the Conference. This is an amended version of the paper I presented at the Seventh National Conference of the Australian Population Association (in a Plenary Session entitled ‘Messages from Cairo’), held in Canberra in September 1994.     

Population policy and models of human nature

Conclusion Models of human nature are seldom clearly expressed by individuals; nevertheless, they are rooted deeply and may be crucial in the formulation and success of population policies. It appears that, for purposes of population policy, a few deep-rooted models can be distinguished and that these models are closely related to the developmental status of countries. Questions of political feasibility and program effectiveness could be analyzed within this framework and the classification proposed here could contribute to this goal.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, St. Louis, Missouri, April 21–23, 1977. Preparation of this paper was supported in part by a grant from the Population Council.     

Population and environment in the twenty-first century

In the past 50 years global population grew by 3.7 billion. There is a large unmet need for family planning and wherever women have been given the means and the information to decide if or when to have the next child, then family size has fallen, often rapidly. However, since the UN 1994 Cairo conference on population and development, support for international family has collapsed and fertility declines in many of the poorest countries have stalled. Amongst some of the most vulnerable groups family size has risen. The investment made in voluntary family planning will largely determine whether, in the next 50 years, the global population grows to something less than 8 billion or to over 10. The trajectory taking us to the higher figure could jeopardize any possibility of transitioning the global economy to a biological sustainability. Much precious time has been lost. Almost all the additional growth in population will take place in the world’s poorest countries, and it is imperative that the international community act to improve access to family planning in those countries, within a human rights frame framework.     

The elimination of contraceptive acceptor targets and the evolution of population policy in India

In 1966 the government of India announced a new national population policy that eliminated numerical targets for new contraceptive acceptors. This paper examines the history of target setting in India and factors that led to the elimination of targets. The analysis is based on published and unpublished reports on India's population policy and the family planning programme and interviews with senior Indian and foreign officials and population specialists. Five factors are identified as playing a role in the evolution from target setting to a target-free policy:(1) the research of India's academics; (2) the work of women's health advocates; (3) the support of officials in the state bureaucracy who approved the target-free approach; (4) the influence of the donors to India's family planning programme, especially the World Bank; and (5) the International Conference on Population and Development.     

The elimination of contraceptive acceptor targets and the evolution of population policy in India

In 1996 the government of India announced a new national population policy that eliminated numerical targets for new contraceptive acceptors. This paper examines the history of target setting in India and factors that led to the elimination of targets. The analysis is based on published and unpublished reports on India's population policy and the family planning programme and interviews with senior Indian and foreign officials and population specialists. Five factors are identified as playing a role in the evolution from target setting to a target-free policy: (1) the research of India's academics; (2) the work of women's health advocates; (3) the support of officials in the state bureaucracy who approved the target-free approach; (4) the influence of the donors to India's family planning programme, especially the World Bank; and (5) the International Conference on Population and Development.     

Family planning and population control in developing countries

This essay aims at a critical analysis of the major assumptions of the family planning movement and their implications for population and development policy in the less developed countries. A neo-Malthusian perspective, in which a reduction of the current high rates of population growth is considered to be a necessary condition for economic development in the less developed countries, is dominant among professionals in family planning. Population control has come to be regarded as a kind of“leading sector” in the development process. The position taken in this paper is that the contention that fertility reduction is crucial to short term economic development is not substantiated empirically and represents a distorted view of the economic development process. Nor is there good evidence that demographic modernization can move far ahead of other aspects of modernization. Skepticism about the success of family planning tends to lead to advocacy of alternative methods of population control which are generally beyond the economic, administrative, and political capacities of the less developed countries and are sometimes repressive in tone. The family planning movement, in overstressing the independent contributions of fertility reduction programs, has tended to underplay conditions such as improved health, lowered mortality, and altered opportunity structure which make these contributions possible at all.     

The Global Science Panel on Population in Sustainable Development

The forthcoming World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa (26 August – 4 September 2002) has been called by the United Nations to consider strategies toward sustainable development in all its dimensions. Hence, its mandate is broader than that of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (the Rio Conference). Population issues have previously been discussed in a separate series of World Population Conferences (Bucharest 1974, Mexico City 1984, Cairo 1994). With no new World Population Conference scheduled for 2004 and Johannesburg having a mandate that explicitly includes social and economic aspects, population as a key component of sustainable development should figure prominently in the deliberations. Yet, after the third of four preparatory meetings for WSSD (which ended in New York on 5 April), population considerations are absent from the planned agenda. A plausible explanation for this absence is bureaucratic: in most countries inputs to Johannesburg are being prepared mainly by environment ministries that have little experience in dealing with population questions. There may also be political reasons for not wanting to discuss population issues in Johannesburg. But, arguably, sustainable development strategies that do not take into account the diversity and the dynamics of human populations will fail. This is one of the conclusions of the Global Science Panel on Population and Environment. The Panel is an independent body of international experts from the fields of population and environment that was organized by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), and the United Nations University (UNU). (Members of the Panel acted in their individual capacity, rather than representing their institutions.) After a ten‐month preparatory process, in April 2002 the Panel finalized a statement that summarizes its understanding of the role of population in sustainable development and outlines key policy priorities. The full text of this statement, titled Population in sustainable development, is reproduced below.     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.     

The International Parliamentary Assembly on Population and Development held in Mexico City

The International Parliamentary Assmebly on Population and Development took place on August 15-16, 1984, with the participation of more than 300 parliamentarians from 60 countries. The aim was to promote an exchange of views on population programs and policies among parliamentarians, and to support the recommendations adopted by the UN International Conference on Population. The assembly held discussion in 3 subcommittees on the subjects of 1) policies of population and development; 2) the legal and social status of women; and 3) the improvement of family planning service. On population policy, parliamentarians generally agreed that policy formulation is the prerogative of each sovereign country, stressing that such policies and programs should be integrated with social and economic development. The developing countries stronly demanded that a new international economic order be established and international aid increased to help them in solving the popultion problem. Concerning the status of women, the assembly unanimously agreed that both men and women should not only be legally equal, but should also have de facto equality for employment, education and social life. Attention should be given particularly to the rights and status of rural women. Examples of how the status of Chinese women has improved were offered by Chinese representative and were appreciated by the assembly. On improving family planning services, participants urged provision of information about birth control to people of marriageable age and of access to contraceptives to eligible couples; moreover, they advocated the strengthening of medical care for women and children and the lowering of infant and maternal mortality rates. Dr. Qian Xinzhong described the priorities and goals of family planning programs in China. Finally, the assembly unanimously adopted the "Action Plan," whose contents embody independence, respect for national sovereignty, and the spirit of cooperation and conformity to the interest of the international community, particularly the developing nations.     

Cross-National Variation in Violent Crime Rates: Race, r-K Theory, and Income

Rushton's theory of r-K race differences was examined in relation to the rate of murder, rape, and serious assault per 100,000 population and Gross Domestic Product per Person for 74 countries from the 1993–1996 International Crime Statistics published by INTERPOL and the 1999 CIA World Fact Book. Each country was assigned to one of the three macro-races East Asian, European, and African. The results corroborated earlier findings that violent crime is lowest in East Asian countries, intermediate in European countries, and highest in African and in Black Caribbean countries. The median number of violent crimes per 100,000 population were: 7 East Asian countries—34; 45 European countries—42; and 22 African and Black Caribbean countries—149, respectively. The median Gross Domestic Product per Person was highest in East Asian countries ($12,600), intermediate in European countries ($7,400), and lowest in African and Black Caribbean countries ($1,900). Across the three population groups there was an ecological correlation of –.96 between crime and wealth (wealthier countries had less crime). Finer-grained analyses, however, found that while wealth was negatively related to crime across European or East Asian countries, it was positively related to crime for the African and Black Caribbean countries (i.e., the wealthier an African or Black Caribbean country, the greater its rate of violent crime). Future research needs to examine genetic factors in addition to cultural factors as well as their interactions.     

Population aging raises questions for policymakers

This issue of Asia-Pacific Population and Policy examines the size of the elderly population in Asia and projections for the next 50 years. It discusses some of the characteristics of Asia's elderly population. Information is based on a study of population momentum and population aging at the East-West Center prepared by the UN for the 32 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia with populations of 150,000 or more. Demographic analysis revealed that the population aged 65 and above are projected to increase during 2000-50 by about 3% per year; of all Asians aged 55 and older, roughly one-half are now between the ages of 55 and 64, about one-third are between 65 and 74, and almost one-sixth are 75 and above. In most countries of Asia, older women are outnumbered by older men. Among the population aged 55 and above, there are about 90 men for every 100 women and among those aged 75 and above, there are only about 70 men for every 100 women. This analysis of demographic data suggests that the elderly population will expand dramatically in Asia over the next 50 years. This changing situation poses a challenge for policy makers in the provision of personal care and financial support for Asia's growing elderly population.     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

Mobility plans and mobility behavior: Convergences and divergences in Thailand

Using Thai data, this paper develops and tests a model of rural-urban mobility behavior in a context dominated by high levels of circular rural-urban mobility. With mobility plans and mobility behavior measured in analogous ways, a close correspondence between mobility plans and mobility behavior is found. In spite of this close correspondence, however, multivariate analysis shows that past mobility behavior—rather than mobility plans—is the most important predictor of subsequent mobility. Where experience with a given type of behavior is abundant, prior behavior may often be the best predictor of subsequent behavior, but where experience with a given type of behavior is scarce, behavioral intentions may be a more relevant explanatory variable.The research reported here was funded by the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations' Research Program on Population and Development Policy (RF 77065; Allocation 164). An earlier version of this paper was presented at the section on migration strategies, migration intentions, and migration decisions at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 3–5, 1984.