How the Rip Van Winkle approach helps oil executives plan

Restructuring has been the oil industry's response to stagnation in profits. After a steady period of profit growth the industry faces the challenge of decline. Currently it is adapting by getting back to basics, i.e. divesting assets and reducing staff; forming a closer understanding of its markets and uncovering new ones. Planning is now too important a strategic activity to be left solely to planners, and at Atlantic Richfield the most important response to restructuring has been the direct involvement of senior executives in the planning process.     

Strategic planning in a turbulent international environment

What we have argued in this paper is that fundamental changes in the multinational corporate environment are taking place raising proaches to multinational environmental surveillance and multinational strategic management. We arenot offering this as a forecast of what the future will bring. Instead, we are proposing this framework to point to the need for greater environmental orientation and adaptation. MNCs are now in a double squeeze and managers must unlearn past models and criteria to understand problem. But the challenge is more than conventional corporate planning. The problematique can be decribed as one of multinational strategic management. In the area of environment we need research and learning to address three basic questions:What is the MCE? What concepts of the environment should be considered for strategic management? What parameters should be monitored? What are some consequences of the concept of interdependence and turbulence?What multinational environmental surveillance should be done? What methodologies are needed? How can these be made operational? How can the corporation be educated to behave in the new mode required in view of these changes?What new strategic issues and challenges lenges emerges from the MCE? What new demands must be factored into the multinational corporate planning processes? What new content does the changing environment procedure? How can the broadening field of opportunities and threats be systematically mapped and understood?     

国际原油价格波动对中国商品期货的影响——基于多重相关性结构断点的分析

原油是具有战略和金融双重属性的大宗商品，原油的金融属性导致其价格波动必然波及商品期货市场。本文研究国际原油价格波动对中国商品期货的影响。通过选取2001年1月-2017年5月沪铜、沪胶和大豆等三类代表性商品期货的收益率日数据，通过使用相关性结构断点和VaR分位数回归模型研究原油价格波动对三类商品期货的风险传导。结果发现：我国商品期货与国际原油价格之间的相关性都呈现某种"周期性"，其周期大约为七年；从收益率视角来看，2008-2014年的高相关性期间，三类商品期货与国际原油的收益率存在明显的正向联动关系；从风险传导来看，三类商品期货与国际原油在不同风险状态下的传导效应有着明显的区别和规律，尤其是在高相关性期间，国际原油对三类商品期货的风险传导呈现出某种由高到低的"阶梯性"变化。     

国际原油价格系统结构性突变识别与分析

选取1997年至2011年作为样本区间,以国际原油市场结构的周期性和突变特征作为研究对象,在筛选变量的基础上,以原油的价格、供应、需求、美元指数和中国原油净进口为内生变量,以库存和投机因素为外生变量,建立原油市场结构经验VARX模型,分析各变量对原油价格的影响,并以此为基础建立基于Bayes理论的原油价格系统MSBVAR模型,识别和分析原油价格系统在考察期内的结构性变化。研究结果表明,影响原油价格波动的首要因素为中国原油净进口,存在亚洲溢价现象且持续期为2个多季度,美元指数影响次之,之后是原油需求,原油供应的贡献率影响最小;原油价格的翘尾效应在不同状态下的滞后期均为1个季度,且效应显著。突发事件对原油价格系统均衡结构的冲击不可忽视,1997年至2011年国际原油市场只存在一个结构突变点,即美国金融危机是导致该次原油价格系统结构平衡被打破的唯一事件。     

Strategic planning for multinationals—The views of governments and scientists

The purpose of the project described in this paper was to study the environmental changes that influence the strategic planning of multinational firms. The environment of any business or government consists of all things external to an organization which influence it, such as political climate, social situation, international economics, etc. The changes in the strategic planning procedures of firms have been reported elsewhere. This article concentrates on the role that three governments in north-western Europe play in multinational business planning and the views of a number of scientists concerning the interaction of environmental conditions and the strategic planning of multinational firms.     

Strategic renewal: Can it be done profitably?

Industry transformation requires strategic renewal at the level of individual firms. Executives then face the dilemma of choosing renewal paths in the face of uncertainty over the competitive environment of the future, and hence the profitability of potential strategies. This dilemma motivates us to study industry transformation from the perspective of strategic renewal among 208 large firms in the global pulp and paper industry. The findings of our qualitative comparative analysis show that only a minority of firms in our sample succeeded in profitable proactive renewal. Content-wise, there were similarities in the pursued strategies over the wider population, but only a few maintained superior profitability while proactively renewing. Our results, overall, highlight the importance of understanding the processual nature and execution of strategic renewal.     

Drivers of internationalization success: a conjoint choice experiment on German SME managers

Internationalization is a common growth strategy for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, SMEs face several challenges within the internationalization process. As SMEs are characterized by limited resources, managers are constantly involved in a decision-making process concerning the allocation of the SMEs’ resources. Therefore, internationalization can be understood as a complex, multidimensional decision process. Based on a set of 2244 internationalization decisions made by German SME managers, the present study examines how eight strategic and structural factors drive the perceived international success of SMEs. When applying conjoint choice analysis, the results suggest that especially equity financing in the internationalization process, an appropriate market selection as well as proactive motives, and a long-term scope can drive SMEs’ international success. Moreover, it becomes evident that strategic factors are more relevant for successful internationalization than structural factors.     

Comparative strategic management: An emergent field in international management

In this article we present an important yet understudied field in international management—comparative strategic management across nations. Although the strategic management discipline traditionally uses the firm as a unit of analysis, and indeed firms within the same nation or industry are often heterogeneous, as argued by the resource-based view, we observe something more. We note a sustained and systematic pattern of strategic management issues at the national-level. We explicate that a unique bundle of national-level institutional, competitive and socio-cultural conditions function together with a repertoire of distinctive capabilities or weaknesses for most firms, incubating certain national-level patterns of corporate-, business-, and international-level strategies adopted by most firms within the nation. To further illustrate we use BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to showcase why and how we advance the study of comparative strategic management (CSM). In our quest to guide future research on CSM, we present a rudimentary yet overarching framework of comparative environments, comparative capabilities, and comparative strategies among firms operating in BRIC countries.     

Industrial productivity dilemma in management and economics: Retrospect and prospect

Industrial productivity dilemma refers to a situation in which modifying and refining existing technologies helps maximize an industry's productivity but constrains productivity from leaping forward. As substantial research exists on this topic in both management and economics, we seek to clarify the concept and its utility. We synthesize relevant studies in various disciplines by reviewing 731 pieces of literature. We summarize various mechanisms that explain why, as the industry develops, the proportion of disruptive innovation declines and the ratio of productivity research and development increases. Our results suggest that industrial productivity dilemma occurs because under a given technological paradigm, there are economic and natural limits to technological development. Only through disruptive innovation can industries improve their long-term adaptability to the environment and promote industrial upgrading or forming new industries. Although with modern technology developments, industrial productivity dilemma may be resolved, because some giant firms can balance the exploration–exploitation conflict well; moreover, structural problems occur as productivity is unbalanced among firms. The productivity dilemma (and its by-product, the structural problem) will always exist. We develop a conceptual framework based on the environment, industry, firm, and policy dimensions to guide future research.     

A fundamental approach to strategy development

The problem of developing sound business strategy is probably more difficult now than it has been at any time since the war. In the midst of conflicting pressures of inflation, recession, unemployment, business failures, and social and political upheaval, today's businessman faces an environment which is both unfamiliar and uncertain. The lack of predictability concerning economic affairs can make it seem impossible to plan effectively for the future. Yet without sound strategy today, corporate survival itself may be called into question. What should be done?In this, the first of two articles, the author suggests that the key to strategy development now is to focus more than ever before on ‘fundamentals’. For the individual business, market share appears to be paramount, as is shown by the ‘experience curve effect’, a concept developed by the Boston Consulting Group in the course of its international work in advising companies on corporate strategy problems. Relative competitive position thus becomes the required simple but fundamental strategic goal. However, the quest for a superior market share must take place within the confines of an appropriately defined strategic business segment.In a further article in the February 1977 issue of LRP the author will go on to expand these conclusions concerning individual businesses, considering their implications for the sound development of strategy for the multi-business company.     

食品系统理论研究综述

随着经济的发展和社会分工的细化,围绕着饮食的供需环境日趋复杂化。因此有必要站在国家粮食和食物供给安全的战略高度从整体的视角对食物的供需变化进行系统的研究。食品系统理论以其独特的研究视角在国际学术界日益受到广泛的关注。本文将食品系统理论的相关文献进行了系统的研究,追溯了食品系统研究的起源,明晰了其理论框架和思想背景,探讨了研究热点和研究现状,并指出研究中存在的不足及今后的研究重点。     

中国原油期货动态风险溢出研究

本文首次量化分析了我国原油期货与国际基准原油、上证指数以及人民币汇率之间的风险溢出关系。通过构建收益率和波动率的静态和动态网络,本文对我国原油期货与国内外市场之间的信息流向的强度、方向和动态性进行了初步的探索。研究发现,我国上市的原油期货与国际基准原油之间的信息关联密切,与股票市场以及汇率市场之间的关系相对较弱。同时,在构建的原油-股票-汇率系统中,我国原油期货处于信息的接收方,国际油价波动信息对我国原油期货市场存在明显的正向冲击作用。     

Middle Managers Moulding International Strategy: An Irish Start-up in Jamaican Telecoms

This is a story of how a group of middle managers moved beyond just implementing their firm’s tightly prescribed strategy for developing an international venture to the point where it could be argued that they failed to accomplish the four clear strategic objectives set by the firm’s executive management. Instead, the authors suggest, their success was in collectively orchestrating an emergent strategy¹ which provided the executive with a better, more profitable and durable embodiment of their strategic vision.Operating between the parent firm’s original strategic intent and the political and economic realities of the host country environment, their strategic influence is worthy of close examination. They can be divided into two distinctive groups—parent country nationals and host-country nationals—and the extent to which they co-operate with or obstruct each other will have a significant effect on the success of the enterprise.² The middle management in this case example, an Irish company launching a mobile telecommunications network in Jamaica, is drawn from both groups. This article investigates the apparent autonomy from executive control afforded these particular middle managers to identify the contingent factors that appear to allow, or constrain, their positive transmutation of the original strategic objectives. The key questions addressed are first, how the two groups, both individually and collectively, played out their roles in shifting strategy, and second, once these contextual dynamics have been identified, how other executive management groups can learn from this Irish/Jamaican experience considering similar international ventures. The authors’ response highlights those elements of strategy design, organisational structure and human resource management that they believe are critical in maximising the strategic contribution of middle managers to international ventures, and hence providing a better chance of success.     

Dealing with uncertainty in the oil industry

This paper suggests that, as in many industries today, uncertainties constitute the environment in which the oil industry operates: that the relationships between these uncertainties lead to a dynamic view of future environments; and that the resulting strategic considerations establish a basis for resource allocation.     

Role of technology in strategic management

The accelerating pace of technological change has made technology a major strategic factor for many organizations. Some firms respond defensively, seeing technology as a problem, while others through strategic use of technology gain permanent advantage.The engineering function typically contains the bulk of the firm's technological expertise, yet engineers and engineering managers are seldom directly involved in strategic analysis. Strategy typically trickles down to engineering in the form of technological problems demanding solutions. This weak linkage between engineering activities and strategic thinking is far from optimal, and in the current turbulent technological environment it can even endanger the firm's survival.The linkage can be strengthened, but it requires behavioral and managerial changes at the top of the firm and at the engineering level. First, both levels must understand the concepts of strategic management and commit to implementing them. Then the strategic nature of technology must be understood, including the limitations and potential traps of technology-based strategies. Finally, creative opportunities for considering technology strategically must be made available at the engineering level, and both design engineers and engineering managers must be rewarded for their strategic contributions.     

Strategic planning for international business

Although international business is old, today's problems deserve careful thought: the methods by which international strategic plans are made are capable of improvement in many companies. Further, much of today's international business has to face up to being multi-national, rather than international, which means that it exists in an environment which in many ways is not in step with its aims. The legal, political, social and economic climates bring many problems to the group which is endeavouring to be multi-national, problems which will be discussed later in this paper.     

Between a rock and a hard place: Internal- and external institutional fit of MNE subsidiary political strategy in contexts of institutional upheaval

We investigate how subsidiaries' political capabilities in emerging markets are not just shaped by their home- or host country institutions, but by both simultaneously - presenting a dilemma for subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in host countries. Subsidiaries need to develop CPA that simultaneously “fit” parent company requirements and “external fit” requirements in relation to the host environment. Achieving this dual fit is particularly difficult in volatile host contexts, where the value of political capabilities changes rapidly. Subsidiaries face a dilemma because the easily transferable capabilities – that draw on parent resources – lose value due to their decreasing “external fit” with the host country's volatile institutional environment. Conversely, the most valuable relational political capabilities lack “internal fit,” as they may not be legitimate in the home environment. To understand how firms deal with this dilemma, we develop a typology of political capabilities that takes into account their transferability/stickiness and their dynamic institutional contingency in the host country. Our study shows that MNEs - even from institutionally very different economies - can successfully transfer political capabilities to develop effective CPA in a volatile political environment. Yet, as political risk becomes discontinuous, this strategy may reach its limits.     

Competing with AT & T

This article discusses the transformation of the telecommunications industry from the perspective of one of the key long- distance voice industry participants, GTE Sprint. In reviewing the restructuring in long-distance voice telecommunications two major aspects are addressed; first, a commentary on the changes which have taken place and their causes, including a brief discussion on GTE Sprint's history and strategic planning process; and second, a section on the new, ‘post-divesture’ environment and GTE Sprint's strategic response to the new environment.     

Political Modernisation and Policy Arrangements: A Framework for Understanding Environmental Policy Change

Since its emergence in the early seventies, the environmental policy domain has substantially changed in terms of its content, organisation and instrumentation. Hitherto these changes have been studied primarily as strategic responses of the actors involved. This article aims to conceive recent changes in environmental policies in terms of political modernisation on the one hand, and in terms of the renewal of policy arrangements on the other. Political modernisation refers to structural processes of changing interrelations between state, market and civil society, and to new conceptions and practices of governance. Policy arrangements refer to the substance and the organisation of policy domains in terms of policy discourses, coalitions, rules of the game and resources. This analytical framework aims to do justice to policy dynamics caused by both strategic and structural factors. It therefore provides new perspectives on the understanding of recent changes in environmental policy and also proves to be helpful in improving those policies. Professor Bas Arts holds the chair of the Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group at Wageningen University, the Netherlands. Professor Pieter Leroy holds the chair of the Department of Political Sciences of the Environment at Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Dr. J.P.M. van Tatenhove is Associate Professor at the Environmental Policy Group of Wageningen University, the Netherlands.     

The Strategy‐Focused Factory in Turbulent Times

Few unfocused factories outperform competitors, but focus is elusive because the environment is constantly evolving and this requires changes to a factory's key tasks. So how can focus be achieved and sustained? We present insights derived from an historical analysis of the German Hewlett‐Packard server plant which went through a series of focus changes over the years. Using this example, we provide clues for the right timing of focus changes and discuss critical structural and infrastructural changes required during the focus transitions, as well as cross‐functional coordination and leadership challenges. Our assertion is that production operations constitute a system that can adapt to disruptive change by using the levers of manufacturing policies to stay focused on a limited but absolutely essential task which creates a strategic advantage.