旅客航班选择模型研究：变精度粗集方法

文章以Logit模型为基础，运用变精度粗集（Variahle Precision Rough Set，VPRS）方法构建了旅客航班选择模型（Passenger Flight Choice Model，PFCM），该模型无需知道旅客航班选择数据集合以外的任何先验信息，在满足所要求精度下，即可求出旅客航班选择的真实因素及各因素权重，从而计算出某航线某时刻旅客航班选择的概率，为航空公司设计产品、改进营销提供可资借鉴的依据。     

考虑旅客忠诚度的航空机票在线定价策略研究

研究了在在线旅游服务提供商(OTA)参与的市场上，航空公司对于在线直销与分销渠道的选择和最优定价问题.一方面，依据旅客是否通过公司直销的购买行为，将其分为“忠诚”旅客和“不忠诚”旅客;另一方面，各个航空公司通过设定不同的直销定价及分销提成来最大化利润，而OTA平台也会根据旅客需求和航空公司决策来设定分销价格.研究发现，相对于OTA平台，航空公司的旅客需求对价格的变动更为敏感;旅客忠诚度水平越高，竞争者数量越多，航空公司越不愿意加入OTA平台;当平台上竞争者达到一定数量的情况下，没有航空公司有动机加入或退出OTA，航空市场达到均衡状态.算例结果支持了模型的解析结论.     

中转联程航班的离港控制

随着航空市场需求的日益扩大，各航空公司开通了越来越多的联程航线。虽然在中转站经停的联程航班需要一定的中转过站时间，但相对于直飞航班，其相对低廉的票价受到了广大旅客的青昧，航空资源也得到更好的利用。但不管采取那种模式，对航空公司的工作人员都提出了更高的要求，     

基于LDA主题模型的航班延误服务补救意见识别研究

研究旅客在航班延误后的满意度影响因素,航空公司可以采取有针对性的补救措施,以提高旅客的满意度和忠诚度。运用LDA主题模型对评论进行主题提取,作为旅客满意度的影响因素,通过多种方法确定主题提取的数量,并对结果进行可视化的处理和解读;利用Jaccard index与已有研究进行相似度度量,结果覆盖了已有研究中可控或者部分可控的因素,同时发现新的影响因素——“娱乐活动”。LDA主题模型在识别航班延误后旅客满意度的影响因素及其重要性方面具有良好的效果,可以为航空公司开展异质化服务提供一定的指导：当航班发生延误的时候,应关注所提取的影响旅客满意度的因素,以提高旅客的满意度;在资源有限的情况下,应优先关注影响旅客满意度的关键因素。     

MAS在旅客运输量变化分析中的应用

本文构造了一个MAS模型,用于分析铁路和公路在旅客运输方面的竞争合作关系。并借助于仿真平台StarLogo的支持,针对不同情况开展了模拟实例研究。结果表明仿真结果为定量认识和进一步研究旅客运输提供了有用的信息。     

航空公司之间利益冲突的协调

经过20多年的体制改革，我国民航业的市场结构发生了很大变化，由民航局单一经营变为有几十家航空公司参加的竞争市场，对于迅速增加运输量、扩大航线和丰富投资来源，为民航业发展注入新的血液无疑有积极的影响。同时，还促进了市场竞争，尽管竞争方式仍有一定限度。只是在竞争过程中，不同航空公司之间的利益冲突却越来越明显。     

考虑旅客选择行为的多舱位等级动态定价研究

通过实证方法研究了考虑旅客选择行为的多舱位等级动态定价决策问题。基于多元Logit选择模型,提出了考虑票价、售出数量、变更转签限制、退票费用限制和提前预订天数等因素的旅客选择行为模型,并结合航空公司历史运营数据使用马尔可夫蒙特卡洛方法对旅客到达率以及旅客选择行为模型中的属性参数进行了估计。在此基础上,构建了融合旅客到达率和旅客选择行为的多舱位等级动态定价决策模型,用以阐释考虑旅客选择行为的舱位等级最优价格决策过程,确定每个时期舱位等级的定价策略,评估基于旅客选择的定价策略相较于现行定价策略的收益改进。实证结果表明：当决策时间点临近航班出发日时,舱位等级价格会随之提高;在同一个决策时间点,舱位等级价格会随座位余量的减少而提高。相较于现行定价策略,基于旅客选择的定价策略预期收益提高了22.32%,证明了基于旅客选择的定价策略在现实环境中的可行性和经济性。     

铁路票价制定策略和线路提速方案的优化分析

在分析了铁路旅客票价与列车运行速度的经济效益的基础上,给出了一个双层规划模 型来描述城市间多种交通运输方式竞争的条件下旅客票价与线路提速方案的合理优化问题, 模型在考虑了旅客选择行为的基础上使铁路运输部门的经济效益最大,并给出了该模型的求 解算法. 最后用一个简单的算例来说明该模型及算法的应用.     

离港系统航班数据控制模块的操作及应急措施

离港系统，其全称为离港控制系统（Departure Control System），是中国民航引进美国优利公司的“航空公司旅客服务大型联机事务处理系统”，其中又分为旅客值机（CKI）、配载平衡（LDP）、航班数据控制（FDC）三大部分。     

我国航空公司核心竞争力研究

民航企业核心竞争力是在市场竞争中积累的、由多种资源和能力组合的、难以模仿的、可以为企业带来持续竞争优势的竞争力。本文运用文献综述、理论推演和案例分析方法,基于行业关键资源探讨,得出民航企业核心竞争力主要表现在:航线优化与运营能力、航空品牌经营能力、航空市场应变能力、航空学习能力、航空联盟管理能力、航空愿景吸引力和航空组合激励能力七个方面。本文成果对于培养和提升我国民航企业核心竞争力具有一定借鉴价值。     

Revenue management games with government mandate

In 2007, the Chinese aviation authority asked the five airlines that offer service between Shanghai and Beijing to form an express shuttle alliance so that tickets from one airline could be used for any flight offered by any of the other airlines. In this paper, we study the impact of such a government mandate on the competitiveness of the market and on airline operations. First we extend a competitive airline seat allocation model to include such a government mandate and provide sufficient conditions for the existence of a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in such a model. Both our analytical and numerical results show that fewer low-fare seats would be made available in a market with the government mandate, and furthermore, revenues of individual airlines would be lower as well. We then study a seat inventory and price competition game between duopoly airlines with the government mandate and establish the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibriums. We show that with the government mandate, the airlines would reserve more high-fare seats and raise the prices of high-fare seats. In addition, we show that the revenues of the airlines would decrease as fewer low-fare seats are offered and increase as the prices of high-fare seats are increased. We also discuss how the government mandate should be designed so that the market could operate as efficiently as possible.     

Significant Factors of Aviation Insurance and Risk Management Strategy: An Empirical Study of Taiwanese Airline Carriers

Aviation insurance premiums have become a heavy burden for the airline industry since September 11, 2001. Although the industry must constantly balance its operations between profitability and safety, the reality is that airlines are in the business of making money. Therefore, their ability to reduce cost and manage risk is a key factor for success. Unlike past research, which used subjective judgment methods, this study applied quantitative historical data (1999–2000) and gray relation analysis to identify the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance premiums. An empirical study of six airlines in Taiwan was conducted to determine these factors and to analyze the management strategies used to deal with them. Results showed that the loss experience and performance of individual airlines were the key elements associated with aviation insurance premiums paid by each airline. By identifying and understanding the primary factors influencing ratemaking for aviation insurance, airlines will better understand their relative operational strengths and weaknesses, and further help top management identify areas for further improvement. Knowledge of these factors combined with effective risk management strategies, may result in lower premiums and operating costs for airline companies.     

航空公司交叉持股对产能共享策略的影响研究

产能共享与交叉持股是航空公司常用的运作与财务策略,两种方式都能在一定条件下起到缓和竞争的作用。本文考虑两家航空公司的两种交叉持股模式,构建了包含顾客忠诚度的价格竞争模型,依据产能是否对称以及是否实施产能共享策略形成八种不同的情形,求解并分析了不同情形下的最优价格决策及对应期望利润。通过对比不同情形下的利润,本文发现,在单向持股模式下,当产能对称时,两家企业始终愿意采用产能共享策略,而当产能不对称时,如果存在产能共享,产能较小的企业将更愿意降低产品价格,导致市场竞争加剧,从而损害产能较大企业的盈利能力。因此,只有当持股比例相对较小时企业才愿意实施共享产能策略。在交叉持股模式下,当产能对称时,企业在交叉持股比例适中时才愿意实施产能共享策略。而当产能不对称时,企业始终不愿意采用产能共享策略。这也表明产能共享和交叉持股策略之间存在一定的相互替代作用,企业应根据不同市场状态协调使用两种策略。     

饭店企业核心竞争力概念探析

面对经济全球化下新的竞争态势,饭店企业迫切需要适合饭店经营特点的核心竞争力理论的指导,以实现可持续的竞争优势。本文从对国内外核心竞争力的概念分析出发,运用普拉哈拉德和哈默的核心竞争力"树型"理论推出饭店企业核心竞争力的基本概念,并对概念的内涵进行了剖析,为核心竞争力理论在服务业企业中的运用奠定了基础。     

Network Game and Capacity Investment Under Market Uncertainty

This paper investigates the impacts of competition and market uncertainty on airlines' network structures and capacity investment. The airlines choose their network structures and construct capacities while demands are unknown. After uncertainty is resolved, they determine the total number of seats to offer in each leg constrained by their capacities built earlier. We conclude that market uncertainty is the driving force of hub‐and‐spoke networks, whereas the market mean is the driving force of point‐to‐point networks. Which of the two countervailing forces dominates determines the equilibrium network structures. Moreover, we find that the airlines' total expected profits in the mixed equilibrium in which the airlines employ different networks are larger than in the pure hub‐and‐spoke network equilibrium in which each airline employs the hub‐and‐spoke network. However, the mixed equilibrium does not necessarily yield larger profits than the pure point‐to‐point equilibrium in which each airline employs the point‐to‐point network.     

Measuring the Benefit of Offering Auxiliary Services: Do Bag‐Checkers Differ in Their Sensitivities to Airline Itinerary Attributes?

When firms evaluate their service system design choices, there is typically more uncertainty surrounding the value that a particular auxiliary service provides than there is on the cost of providing that service. To help inform this decision, we propose an approach where we compare the relative value of the segment of passengers who use an auxiliary service to the relative value of the segment that does not use it. We demonstrate this approach for a typical auxiliary service common to the airline industry. In 2008, most US airlines implemented checked baggage fee policies to decrease their costs by reducing the number of customer service agents needed in the check‐in and baggage handling processes. The success of this change has led to a current debate at many of these airlines on whether to make further staffing cuts in these areas, essentially making it even less attractive for passengers to check their baggage. Our proposed methodology helps answer whether passengers who continue to check bags in today's baggage‐fee era are more or less valuable than passengers who do not check bags. We explore this question empirically by examining, through a stated preference survey, if a history of checking or not checking bags can be used to segment passengers based on how their itinerary choices are influenced by common airline service attributes (on‐time performance, itinerary time, number of connections, airfare, and schedule delay). Contrary to the opinions of some top airline executives, we find that the passengers who continue to check bags at airlines that charge baggage fees are generally less sensitive to differences in three of these important service attributes and are less likely to switch airlines when a competing airline improves its offerings along these dimensions. Thus, airlines that charge for checked bags should consider improving the customer experience for their bag‐checking passengers, as they represent a potentially more valuable segment class to the airline.     

动态竞争的战略主题及核心能力的提升路径

现代企业之间的竞争已经从过去的静态竞争演变到动态竞争,核心能力成为竞争优势的最终来源和动态竞争的根本驱动因素。这就要求企业将过去的产品中心战略转变为能力中心战略,利用汲取机制和组织学习持续提升核心能力,保持和扩大竞争优势。     

Transportation after deregulation

For 40 years U.S. airlines operated under tight government control. Deregulation has put them in competition in an open market where they have had to become more efficient to compete. They have also had to bear the consequences of the—until the recent levelling off—rocketing price of fuel, a world-wide recession and a damaging strike of traffic controllers. However, services have increased, fares have stabilized and been pared down and adjusted to the market. The authors trace the strategic trends consequent on deregulation, the necessity for a change in company values and the importance of technological innovation.     

Die Rolle des Luftverkehrsrechts und der Haftung bei Flugzeugkatastrophen: Eine Finanzmarktanalyse

Zusammenfassung  Rechtsansprüche gegen Fluggesellschaften und Flugzeughersteller in Folge einer Flugzeugkatastrophe richten sich nach einer Flut rechtlicher Bestimmungen, die aus internationalen Abkommen, Vereinbarungen zwischen Fluglinien sowie aus Bundes- und Landesrecht resultieren. Die jeweilige Rechtsgrundlage in einem spezifischen Fall h?ngt von verschiedenen Umst?nden ab, die mit einem Unfall verbunden sind. Es überrascht daher nicht, dass zugesprochene Schadensersatz- und Schmerzensgeldzahlungen an die Angeh?rigen der Opfer von Fall zu Fall erheblich divergieren. In unserer Studie mit U.S.-amerikanischen Daten untersuchen wir, inwieweit der kurz- und langfristige Erfolg von Fluggesellschaften und Flugzeugherstellern durch Flugzeugkatastrophen beeinflusst wird und wir eruieren diejenigen Determinanten, die Performanceunterschiede erkl?ren k?nnen. Verwandte Untersuchungen haben sich weitgehend auf Effekte für Markennamen oder steigende Versicherungspr?mien als Ursachen für Aktienkursverluste konzentriert. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen darüber hinaus, dass das regulatorische Umfeld einer spezifischen Unglückssituation erheblichen Einfluss darauf hat, wie Finanzm?rkte reagieren. Die Reaktionen der Marktteilnehmer weisen darauf hin, dass die unterschiedlichen Berechnungsgrundlagen für die Opferentsch?digung recht klar erkannt werden.

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The role of aviation laws and legal liability in airplane accidents: A financial market perspective

Summary  Legal liability claims against airlines and airplane manufacturers following an aviation disaster are determined through a myriad of international treaties, intercarrier agreements, and federal and state laws. Which law applies in a specific situation depends on various circumstances surrounding the accident. As a result, pecuniary and non-pecuniary damage awards for the families of the accident victims may vary substantially from case to case. Using U.S. data, our study examines how aviation disasters affect the short and long-term performance of airlines and airplane manufacturers and explores the factors that drive the performance differences. While prior research has largely focused on brand name effects and rising insurance premiums as possible determinants of stock price losses, our results suggest that the regulatory environment that applies to a given aviation accident has a significant impact on how the market reacts to its announcement. Inequities in the valuation of a human life are clearly reflected in stock price reactions. While recent regime changes have helped eliminate some of these imbalances further reform may be necessary.

     

中国企业的全球学习模式研究

随着经济全球化的到来,我国企业在国内市场已面临着激烈的国际化竞争,通过全球学习迅速培育和发展核心能力便成为当前我国企业国际化经营的首要战略选择,并进而关系到新世纪中国在整个世界经济中的战略地位。据此,本文从国内市场的互动型学习和国外市场的本土化学习这一双层学习视角,构建中国企业的全球学习模式,并进而针对核心能力的培养与更新,系统地设计互动型学习与本土化学习的层次、架构和流程。最后运用全球性的战略眼光,从全球学习机制、知识管理、企业家三个方面研究全球学习实施的渠道、手段和核心,提出通过全球知识共享来全面提升中国企业国际核心竞争力的新构想。