The new marriage law and planned birth]

The New Marriage Law was passed during the Fifth National People's Congress. It raised the minimum marriage age from 20 years for men and 18 years for women stipulated by the Old Marriage Law to 22 years for men and 20 years for women. It also differs from the Old Marriage Law in that it strengthens its encouragement of late marriage, late births and birth control, emphasizes that birth planning is the duty of both husband and wife, and prohibits marriage of collateral blood relations within 3 generations (the Old Marriage Law's standard was "to follow custom"). A third of the provisions of the New Marriage Law concern family planning, of which the first 3 clauses are the most important: 1) To set guidelines for the relationship between marriage and family: the New Marriage Law is concerned with not just the family, but also marriage and birth and expects all citizens to comply with and protect these standards. 2) To implement freedom in marriage--equality for men and women; to protect the rights of women, children, and the aged; to implement planned birth. 3) To prohibit any action that prevents freedom of marriage, such as marriage on a mercenary basis and to prohibit financial profit from marriages. Other clauses include: 1) direct blood relations and victims of leprosy or other diseases determined unmarriageable by the medical profession are prohibited from marriage; 2) after marriage registration and with the mutual agreement of both parties, either partner can become a member of the other's family; children can take either parent's surname; both partners have mutual rights of inheritance, as do parents and children. In Heilungjiang Province, data from September 1980 show that 87.5% of its fertile women used contraceptives. From January to September 1980 85.6% married late; the rate of applications for One Child Certificates was 80%. By 1979 the rate of natural population increase was 10.14/1000.     

Changing patterns of family growth: The value of linked vital records as a source of data

Abstract Marriage and birth registrations for the Canadian province of British Colombia have been 'linked' by computer into family groupings to provide reproductive histories of married couples. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by a comparison of the early productivities of marriages contracted in 1961 and in 1951, taking into account the age of the bride, the duration of the marriage, and the religions of the groom, bride and officiating clergyman. Older Catholic brides are shown to run counter to the otherwise general trend towards increasing productivity in the early years of marriage.     

Fertility survey in the rural areas of Hubei Province]

In July, 1981, the staff of the Population Research Section of the Economics Department of Wuhan University and family planning personnel at the local level conducted a survey on fertility in the rural areas of Hubei Province. The survey was conducted in the forms of public opinion polls and individual conversations with the local people. The results of this survey can be summarized as follows: (1) Marriage Question -- the average age for first marriage is 22.54. The marriage rate is 5.3/1,000 for age 18, 35.5/1,000 for age 19, 54.2/1,000 for age 20, 171.9/1,000 for age 21, 393.5/1,000 for age 22, 717.8/1,000 for age 23, 886.3/1,000 for age 24, and 965.3/1,000 for age 25. (2) Birth Question -- average time between first marriage and first child is two years. Women between the ages of 25 and 29 average 2 children; women between the ages 20 and 24 average 1.3 children. Figures show that an unlimited population growth is already under restraint, and the fertility rate shows some obvious decline. (3) Ideological Question -- traditional beliefs favoring more children and favoring boys to girls are still strong in the minds of the people. In general, young males and females still contemplate an early marriage and wish to have two children. In order to correct the people's ideology and match it with national population policy, more work is needed in family planning.     

An analysis of the change of marriage pattern of Beijing women]

Changes in marriage patterns occur primarily in changes in the age at marriage. During a study of fertility among Beijing, China, women in 1981, another study was undertaken of the marriage situation of 8299 women who were born in 1914, 1920, 1930, 1940, and 1946. Data show that the rate of unmarried women was close to zero, which is one reason for the high birth rate in the past. A majority of the urban and rural women born in 1914, 1920, and 1930 married before the age of 15 years, indicating that the economic, social, and marriage customs for those decades changed very little. The 1940 cohort, however, showed no urban marriages prior to the age of 15 years and less than 1% in the villages, the reason being that these women were of marriageable age in the mid-to-late 1950s when China underwent major social and economic changes that raised the status of women and permitted them to join the work force or go to school. Very few urban women in the 1946 cohort married before 20 years of age, and the number of rural women who married before they were 18 years old declined noticeably. Findings also show that for both urban and rural women, the average age at marriage was 1-3 years later than the modal age at marriage. Beginning with the 1940 cohort the age at marriage was older by 2 1/2 years, signaling major changes. Except for the 1914 cohort, the median age at marriage for all others gradually became higher. 70% of the 1946 cohort voluntarily married after turning 23 years old, reflecting the effectiveness of the late marriage, late birth policy. Although close to 59% of rural women born in 1946 married before 23 years of age, nearly double the rate for urban women, it is nevertheless a major change from the 1930 cohort where 95% of the women married before turning 23 years old.     

Age at marriage and timing of the first birth

Summary An attempt has been made to measure the effect of age at marriage of brides on the timing of the first birth. In Australian vital statistics, first nuptial confinements have been tabulated by age of mothers and by single years of marriage duration in single months for the first two years and by single years for all other durations since 1916. A simple technique has been used to link such data with marriage cohorts. The study briefly reviews the prevailing patterns of the timing of first births by mothers' age at marriage and changes in this pattern since the marriages of the 1925/9 period. The analysis shows that after a period of relative stability of family formation patterns in the 1950s and early 1960s, women married in the late 1960s started postponing the first birth beyond the first two years of marriage. It is suggested that a fraction of the decline in total births recorded in Australia since 1972 can be attributed to the postponement of first nuptial confinements by women married in the late 1960s and early 1970s.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

A preliminary analysis of negative population growth in Taicang County]

This report attempts to analyze the negative population growth and its significance in Tai-Cang County, China. Based on population data provided by local Tai-Cang authorities, family planning effectively lowered the birth rate from 11.9% between 1960-1969 to 3.0% between 1979-1983. The rate of single-child families grew enormously while the number of 2-child families reached a record low. Families with more than 2 children virtually vanished by 1983. Moreover, while a younger marriage age in 1981 and 1982 contributed to a slight increase in the birth rate, new marriage laws in 1983 caused an older marriage age and acted to lower the birth rate due to the fact that mothers were bearing children at an older age. A change in population components also influenced this low birth rate: the county population below the age of 14 is 21.2% compared with 33.6% nationally; however, the percentage of the population in this county over the age of 65 is 8.5% while the national figure is 4.9%. Finally, the marriagable population of females (i.e., 23 years old) was slightly lower between 1982-1984 due to the low birth rate seen from 1959-1961. The findings indicate that family planning is effective in lowering birth rates along with late marriages and older childbearing ages. The negative population growth in Tai-Cang County, however, is a temporary phenomenon. The indications are that the problems and shortcomings of family planning must be overcome, regional population planning must be improved, and the study of eugenics and optimum population reinforced. The report also notes that the population trend is toward aging.     

New household projections for the united states

This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued by the Bureau of the Census and examines the effect on the resulting number of households of the assumptions made about future marriages and future proportions of household heads in the population.One population projection series was used, since all series are identical for the adult population. Marriage assumptions were generated by assuming various outcomes of the marriage squeeze (defined as the excess of females relative to the number of males in the main ages at marriage in the next few years). Assumptions about proportions of household heads were generated by assuming, in varying degrees, continuation of recent trends in these proportions.Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure of the adult population. Varying the assumed proportions of household heads produces greater differences in the projected total number of households than does varying the marriage assumptions used here. Nevertheless, the various possible outcomes of the marriage squeeze, as represented by the assumptions used, produce significantly different projections of increases in the number of young husband-wife households.The most striking finding is that by 1985, proportions of household heads among the population not "married, spouse present" may well rise to such a level that over the long term, the smaller the number of persons who marry, the larger will be the number of households.     

Marriage Patterns And Cumulative Fertility In West Malaysia: 1966–1967

Differentials in age at first marriage and being married more than once are discussed for a probability sample of West Malaysian currently married women 15-44 years of age. Both marriage ages and the incidence of multiple marriages vary greatly by race, place of current residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation; and the marriage variables are shown to have significant effects on the cumulative fertility of West Malaysian women. Early marriage leads to higher cumulative fertility and multiple marriages lead to lower cumulative fertility. Since the social groups with the highest proportions of early marriages are also those with the highest incidence of multiple marriages, the marriage variables explain some but not all of the variance in cumulative fertility for West Malaysian social groups. After adjustment for the effects of the marriage variables, rural Indian or Pakistani women still have the highest cumulative fertility and urban Chinese women with more than five years of schooling still have the lowest cumulative fertility.     

A brief analysis on the survey of the present population situation of the Miao nationality in Sichuan Province]

The Miao nationality is a minority in China which has a total population of 5.03 million. In Sichuan Province, the Miao population is about 130,000, representing approximately 4% of the entire Miao population. In 1981 and 1982, surveys were conducted to investigate the Miao population. Results from these surves are summarized as follows: (1) The age structure of the Miao nationality is young, and the percentage of young people is high. A large number of children who were born in the 1960s and 1970s have now reached the age for marriage, a new high point of births will be created soon, and family planning will become a very urgent problem; (2) Fertility is very high, about 5.05 children for each married woman; (3) Marriage between close relatives is rather popular and this custom is harmful to the next generation, and the rate for abnormal babies and deaths is rising; (4) A popular belief which exits among the Miao people is that more children represent good fortune for the parents. It is quite obvious that urgent work is needed in order to develop family planning in the areas inhabited by the Miao people. Both the quantity and quality of the Miao nationality should be adjusted in order to cope with a changing world.     

已婚流动妇女的性生活及其影响因素实证研究

基于"流动人口的婚姻家庭问题研究"课题组收集的数据,描述当代已婚流动妇女的性生活状况及其与从未外出打工已婚女性和已婚流动男性的性生活水平差异,通过建立多视角、多因素的综合解释模型,对已婚流动妇女性生活的影响因素进行估计和检验。多元分析结果表明,年龄、受教育程度、月收入、家庭经济支配权、与配偶居住情况、打工当地朋友数等是已婚流动妇女性生活质量的主要影响因素。     

Marriage Markets and Intermarriage: Exchange in First Marriages and Remarriages

Drawing on data from the American Community Survey, we compare patterns of assortative mating in first marriages, remarriages, and mixed-order marriages. We identify a number of ascribed and achieved characteristics that are viewed as resources available for exchange, both as complements and substitutes. We apply conditional logit models to show how patterns of assortative mating among never-married and previously married persons are subject to local marriage market opportunities and constraints. The results reveal that previously married individuals “cast a wider net”: spousal pairings are more heterogamous among remarriages than among first marriages. Marital heterogamy, however, is reflected in systematic evidence of trade-offs showing that marriage order (i.e., status of being never-married) is a valued trait for exchange. Never-married persons are better positioned than previously married persons to marry more attractive marital partners, variously measured (e.g., highly educated partners). Previously married persons—especially women—are disadvantaged in the marriage market, facing demographic shortages of potential partners to marry. Marriage market constraints take demographic expression in low remarriage rates and in heterogamous patterns of mate selection in which previously married partners often substitute other valued characteristics in marriage with never-married persons.     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

The conflicting effects of delayed marriage and declining divorce rates on cumulative fertility in Indonesia

The impact of nuptiality patterns on fertility in Indonesia is examined with multivariate analysis controlling for 8 socioeconomic variables. Data were obtained from the 1987 Indonesian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Marriage is usually universal by age 35, and in this study all women 30 years had been married at least once. 20% were married at 15 years and 45% married at 18 years. For those married more than once, prevalence of 1st marriage was 7% for women 15-24 years, 15% for 25-34 years, and 29% for 35-49 years. In 1976 and 1987, the age at 1st marriage and number of times married were both strongly and negatively correlated. The % never marrying between 15-49 years rose from 21.5% to 26.4% between 1980-87. Cumulative fertility w as related to both age at 1st marriage and number of times married. Muslim women, women in Java and Bali, and rural women all marry at younger ages. 27% of the variance in age at 1st marriage is explained by women aged 25-34, current residence, region, religion, language, education, and work or not before marriage. The number of times married is also associated with socioeconomic characteristics without control, i.e., Muslim women 25-34 years were 3 times more likely to have been married more than once than in other faiths. With controls for socioeconomic factors, only 13% of the variance is explained and being Muslim has no statistically significant effect. The important net effects were being interviewed in Balinese, age, and age at 1st marriage. In the analysis of cumulative fertility, age at 1st marriage consistently is related to cumulative fertility in almost every socioeconomic group when age and number of times married is controlled for. Women married more than once have lower fertility. 36% of the variance is explained by all the variables. Being married more than once leads to having 2.1 fewer children. A 5-year delay in marriage leads to .75-1.1 fewer children. When other variables are controlled for, neither educational level nor prior work experience has a statistically significant effect on cumulative fertility. In the contraception analysis, women married more than once used contraception less. Among women 35-49, those marrying later had higher contraceptive use, but in general contraceptive use declined with age. More information is needed on why marriage patterns are changing.     

Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts

Marital status life tables have provided a basis for describing the marriage, divorce, and mortality experience of U.S. cohorts born 1888-1950. In brief, marriage occurred earlier and became more universal from the earliest cohorts to those of the late 1930s. More recent cohorts show declines in the proportion ever marrying and increases in the mean age at marriage. Period data for 1980 and cumulative cohort data by age suggest the likelihood of a continuing retreat from first marriage. Divorce has been rising steadily, with the latest cohorts indicating that 46 percent of male marriages and 42 percent of female marriages will end in divorce. Period data for males in 1980 raise the possibility that levels of divorce may have reached a peak, but cumulative cohort data by age show no such pattern. The present results are consistent with the view that a fundamental change in the traditional concept of marriage is underway. Traditional marriage involved the husband providing the wife with economic support and protection in return for her companionship and maternal services. Strong social pressures urged men and women to marry, and made the coveted services married persons provided each other difficult to obtain elsewhere. Recent economic changes have undermined the social and economic forces that maintained the institution of marriage. The U.S. economy has grown to include a large service sector in its labor force, and that growth has produced a dramatic increase in female labor force opportunities (Oppenheimer, 1970). The resultant large scale participation of women in economic activity blurs the traditional division of labor by sex, and goes to the very heart of the traditional marriage "bargain." At the same time, economic changes have weakened family ties by encouraging lower fertility, stressing achieved as opposed to ascribed characteristics, and fostering geographical mobility (Goode, 1970). The "marital union" of the past may be giving way to the "marital partnership" of the future, which will accommodate informal as well as formal marriages, less dependence between spouses, greater egalitarianism, lower fertility, and higher levels of divorce.     

American families: trends and correlates

Discussion focused on the nature of the roles of the family, a review of the major demographic changes (marriage, cohabitation, nonfamily households, remarriage, fertility, teenage pregnancy, and female employment) affecting the American family in the past decades, and the nature of the impact on women, men, and children. There were four major trends identified: 1) increased proportions of children living in single-parent families due to high rates of divorce and increased childbearing outside of marriage; 2) increased proportions of adults in nontraditional living arrangements; 3) increased female labor force participation during all stages of the life cycle; and 4) decreased proportions of children and increased proportions of older people out of total population due to declining mortality and fertility rates. Family formation arises out of childbearing and childrearing roles, the need for companionship and emotional support, and the opportunities for specialization and trade, and the economies of scale. The costs of family living may include the potential for disagreement, conflict, loss of privacy, and time and money. There were a number of reasons identified for not maintaining traditional families consisting of a married couple with children. The trends were for later age at marriage: 24.4 years in 1992 for women, increased cohabitation (almost 50% cohabiting prior to first marriage in 1985-86), decreased number of married couple households, and increased number of adults in non-family households. The divorce rate has risen over the past 100 years with peaks in the 1970s; the reasons were identified as increased baby boomers and new marriages, increased labor participation of women, and changes in gender roles. The stabilization and slight decline in rates may be due to a natural leveling, the likelihood of greater stability within new marriages, and the aging of the baby boomers. An anticipated increase in divorce rates in the future was also justified. Remarriage rates varied by gender, age at separation/divorce, presence of children, race/ethnicity, and education. Fertility remained stable at 1.8 during the late 1970s and early 1980s and increased slightly to 2.0 in 1989. IN 1990, there were 25% out-of-wedlock births compared to 5% in 1960. About 12% of births in 1989 were to teenagers. There has been an increase in female-headed households, the median income of which in 1992 was $13,012, or 33% of married couple income.     

中国女性初婚模式变动趋势研究

20世纪80年代以来我国女性的初婚模式发生了显著的变化。本文使用人口普查资料、全国1%人口抽样调查数据、人口变动情况抽样调查数据以及IPUMS数据,通过女性平均初婚年龄、曾婚比例、年龄别初婚概率、终身结婚期待率和预期单身寿命等指标探究我国女性自20世纪80年代以来的初婚模式变动情况。研究发现30多年来我国女性平均初婚年龄在波动中上升,到2017年女性平均初婚年龄已经达到25.60岁,而教育程度的提高会推迟女性进入婚姻的时间,接受过高等教育的女性平均初婚年龄明显高于未受过高等教育的女性;另外,通过对各教育程度平均初婚年龄标准化与分解看到随着时间的推移,教育对女性的平均初婚年龄影响作用增大;20-30岁年龄段女性婚姻推迟明显,曾婚比例不断降低,但女性终身未婚比例很低,其中受过高等教育的女性婚姻推迟现象最为明显,但其自身的结婚意愿并未降低,大部分女性只是推迟结婚时间,并不是不结婚。对净婚姻表各指标进行计算发现1982-2010年女性的年龄别初婚概率下降,尤其在20-30岁年龄段下降明显,初婚峰值年龄推迟,结婚年龄集中现象减弱。终身结婚期待率下降速度趋缓,随着女性初婚年龄的推迟,2010年27岁之后的终身结婚期待率要高于1990年与2000年,29-35岁女性的预期单身寿命也较前30年低,较大年龄未婚女性结婚等待时间缩短。     

Can the birth quantity be known one year earlier?]

In order to carry out the population control policy, efforts are needed to control pregancies and births. Studies show that 3 types of people may deliver babies next year: 1) those who are married at the end of the current year but have not become pregnant, 2) those who have 1 child at the present time and plan to have an additional child for special reasons, and 3) those who may get married during the 1st season of the coming year. Persons from the 1st 2 categories are easy to calculate or estimate. Persons from the 3rd category represent the core in predicting the birthrate for the coming year. Marriage ages and the distribution of dates for marriage are the 2 major sources of information for estimating the total number of persons who belong to the 3rd category. In the 1st step, we need to figure the ratio between the number of marriages in the 1st season and the total marriages for the whole year. Based upon available data for the past 3 years, a formula can be used to calculate this ratio. The marriage numbers for the 1st season of 1982 multiplied by the above percentage will be the possible number of marriages for 1982. Then, the possible number of births can be calculated by taking the birth ratio multiplied by possible marriages for 1982. Using the same method, the possible birth numbers for 1983 can be calculated. The above information shows that the total predicted births for 1983 includes 3 elements: 1) the number of those who aare married but not pregant and plan to give birth in 1983, 2) the number of those who received special permission to have a 2nd child in 1983, and 3) the number of those who may get married in 1982 and 1983 and who may give birth in 1983.     

New problems for China's population control

Increases in both marriages and divorces in China have created challenges for China's efforts to curb population growth. In 1987, 8.80 million marriages were registered in China--an increase of 530,000 over 1986. This trend is a result of 2 factors: increases in the numbers of people in the marriageable age group and a decline in the average age at 1st marriage. In addition, China's divorce rate has just surpassed the 1/1000 level; 890,000 couples were divorced in 1987. Given the recent alarming increase in China's birth rate, it is recommended that firm measures be taken to reduce the number of early births that result from early marriages and unplanned births from illegal marriages and to promote more widespread use of effective family planning.     

个体经济地位、婚前家庭经济差异与婚姻迁移

婚姻迁移是通过婚姻途径发生的并伴随户口变更的人口迁移。我国婚姻迁移人口的规模不断增长,婚姻迁移受性别、出生地、出生年代的影响,初婚年龄的队列差别对婚姻迁移同样存在影响。个人经济地位,即个人年收入越高,婚姻迁移的可能性越大。婚前男方家庭经济状况更好的婚姻迁移的可能性更高,女方家庭经济状况更好的婚姻迁移的可能性相对较低。