Patterns of family location

Theoretical propositions from human ecology are used to develop a model that explains the centralization or decentralization of various types of families, such as married couples with children, in the Cleveland, Ohio, Metropolitan Area. The model shows how proximity to the Central Business District affects neighborhoods in terms of three characteristics: Age or period of development, both internal and external housing Space, and Site features such as industrial and recreational activity. These structural characteristics are seen, in turn, as the causes of the location of families in relationship to the center of Cleveland. Of the three characteristics, Space generally plays the most important and Site the least important role in determining the location of types of families. However, the location of most types of families is affected by a variety of interrelation-ships among neighborhood characteristics.     

Shopping center location and retail store mix in metropolitan areas

Retail sales in 1963 in 116 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) are related to SMSA size in 1960. Nucleated sales occur in the Central Business District (CBD) and in Major Retail Centers (MRC’s). As SMSA’s grow, the proportion of sales in MRC’s increases and that in the CBD decreases. The ratio of nucleated sales to dispersed sales remains constant. The laws of economic location operate to place shopping goods primarily in the CBD and in MRC’s whereas convenience and other types of stores disperse throughout the SMSA. Plotting the straight line distance of every MRC relative to the CBD and computing the mix of trade types in MRC’s reveals that, with some modifications, most MRC’s have a mix of store types similar to the CBD. Convenience stores are somewhat more important and all other stores less so than they are in the CBD. The findings support the Harris-Ullman multiple nuclei hypothesis.     

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Blue laws: Impact on regional retail activity

Diametrically opposite conclusions about the impact of blue laws on regional retail activity can be found in both the popular press and the economics literature. Most of these conclusions are based either on anecdotal evidence or on data from particular types of retail stores in a very limited geographical area.This study is based on a nation-wide analysis of the retail sector as a whole and ten subsectors in all regions of the U.S. with and without blue laws. The results suggest that Sunday closing laws do not affect the overall level of retail activity in a region in a significant manner. However, blue laws are shown to significantly affect the distribution of retail activity among certain subsectors of retail trade in a region.     

‘Agricultural Poverty’ and the Expansion of Artisanal Mining in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences from Southwest Mali and Southeast Ghana

Why do people engage in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)—labour-intensive mineral extraction and processing activity—across sub-Saharan Africa? This paper argues that ‘agricultural poverty’, or hardship induced by an over-dependency on farming for survival, has fuelled the recent rapid expansion of ASM operations throughout the region. The diminished viability of smallholder farming in an era of globalization and overreliance on rain-fed crop production restricted by seasonality has led hundreds of thousands of rural African families to ‘branch out’ into ASM, a move made to secure supplementary incomes. Experiences from Komana West in Southwest Mali and East Akim District in Southeast Ghana are drawn upon to illustrate how a movement into the ASM economy has impacted farm families, economically, in many rural stretches of sub-Saharan Africa.     

Population and development redux

The effects of population growth on long-term economic development are obviously important. This paper introduces new predictions from a general Malthus-Boserup model of population growth and ideas-based technological change. It also tests these predictions using numerous data sources, empirical specifications, and sample periods. Time series tests reveal that the empirical associations that hold true in the modern era are completely reversed in pre-modern samples. Inferences drawn from the pre-modern population growth of geographically isolated populations are also reversed when relevant controls are taken into account. While there is a clear break with Malthusian theory, in general, and especially outside of the modern era, there is no unequivocal evidence supporting Boserupian views. An alternative model consistent with transitional demographic patterns is briefly discussed.     

Population and Upland Crop Production in Nang Rong,Thailand

This paper estimates village-level models of the effects of population variables on the area devoted to upland crop production in Nang Rong district, Thailand. The expansion of upland crops is part of the growth of market agriculture in Nang Rong, and a correlate of deforestation in this setting, The results show that population density (measured as density of village settlement) negatively affects area in upland crops while population growth has a positive effect. Changes in land use associated with population change appear to radiate outward from nuclear village centers. As cash economies are established in rural settings, household formation requires a source of income as well as a subsistence stake. Growth in the population of households is a stronger predictor of the area in upland crops than growth in the number of persons.     

空间相互作用与城市经济增长--来自长三角的证据

基于以往研究对空间相互作用方向性考虑不足的事实,文章以长三角133个县市为例,构建了融合新经济地理学与中心地理论的理论框架,将表征空间需求关联的总体市场潜能细分为来自同层级、高等级、低等级三个方向,利用空间计量模型估计了总体及不同方向的空间相互作用对长三角地区人均GDP增长与人口增长的效应。结果显示：在控制空间依赖导致的间接溢出效应等因素后,并未发现存在要素价格绝对调整或要素数量绝对调整的证据,总体市场潜能的提高同时促进了城市人均GDP增长与人口增长;就不同方向的空间相互作用而言,大城市的自身发展有利于中等城市的人均GDP增长,大城市之间、大城市对下级城市、小城市对上级城市形成了人口增长的良性互动格局,而中等城市之间以及中等城市对大城市的人口增长则表现为回流效应。     

Population science serves human happiness]

4 areas are covered in this speech delivered on January 10, 1983. 1) Looking back on China's post-Liberation population problems: as early as the 1950s, the Party and scholars such as Ma Yinchu recognized the need to control population growth. For instance, a 1952 directive instructed the Public Health Bureau to encourage the use of condoms and diaphrams. When Ma Yinchu's studies showing alarming population increases were made known to Mao Zedong and published in the People's Daily in 1957, the "new population theory" was formed, which advocated population control. But before this idea gained currency, Ma suffered criticism in 1958 and population studies was virtually halted. Between 1958-61, as China entered difficult times, the birthrate declined. By 1962 the rate increased, leading the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to issue a directive to control population. Again in 1971 the Central Government set population goals and incorporated population policies into national economic planning. When the wrongs of the Cultural Revolution were redressed, Ma Yinchu regained favor and demography entered a new era. 2) The responsibility of demographic studies: one of the most important tasks of demography is to solve the problem of confining the birthrate to 16-17/1000 annually, so that by 2000 the total population would be 1,200,000,000. This can only be done by advocating 1 child per couple, closely con trolling a 2nd birth and discouraging all 3rd births. 3) The contents of demographic studies: both immediate and future problems must be addressed. Areas of study can include sex ratio, marriage, family, population and land distribution, fertility, or an aging society. 4) Science research must embody a scientific attitude: it is best to follow the example set by Ma Yinchu, whose work was based on actual investigations in the field. Any development and production of scientific theory must stem from practical experience.     

Social Structure and Child Poverty

Child poverty, as a critical indicator of the QOL, is intricately related to the social structure of the community. This hypothesis is explored for the 159 counties of Georgia for the year 2000. The influence of demographic, economic, family and health factors upon child poverty are explored through models of total, black and white child poverty. Factor analyses of factors uncovered by the models identify the social-structural features of counties in relation to child poverty. Counties considered “Deprived/rural” harbor child poverty, while counties described as “Business/money” and “Progressive/urban” bear a negative relationship to child poverty. Positively associated with child poverty are residential stability, unemployment, low educational achievement, youth and age dependency, single-parent female household heads with children, grandparent child care, and health disability of child, elders and of working-age persons. Structural factors militating against child poverty are persons with greater education, higher population density, out migration, larger married population, higher retail sales, larger middle class families, higher weekly wages, and other structural features of the county.     

A welcome family planning service center

The Family Planning Service Center of Luohu District was organized by the Family Planning Committee of the district to help couples of child bearing age and 1-child families to overcome their difficulties. The services provided by the center include: distributing contraceptives, and providing consultation on birth control, contraception, healthy births and better upbringing, and maternal and child care. A peculiar feature of the center is that one sees many young and middle-aged people of both sexes going in and out of the place at all hours of the day and night. Workers from the center even go to offices and factories to provide services and distribute contraceptives. In close cooperation with neighborhood family planning centers, the center has also set up offices to distribute contraceptives and give advice. It is estimated that in Luohu District, at present, 90% of the couples of childbearing age are current users of contraceptives. In the city, the proportion of 1-child families is quite large. As a rule in China, preschool children are looked after by their grandparents. Living separately from their parents, however, many couples in the city find it difficult to find someone to care for their children. The center also provides assistance in finding child care help. The center has also invited experts and medical personnel to give 10 lectures on child nutriology, child psychology, birth control, contraception and pregnancy health.     

Carrying out the number seven directive of C.C.C.C.P., spreading comprehensive measures of birth control]

This report examines how the Yi Yang District of Hunan Province carried out the Central Commitee of the Chinese Communist Party's No. 7 Directive, i.e., the directive requiring the people of the county to take comrehensive measures, as opposed to single methods, to promote birth control. Yi Yang District officials in charge of Family Planning established a new and comprehensive program promoting birth control, stressing 4 major points: 1) a voluntary policy, 2) suitability of the birth control method, 3) safety, and 4) convenience. Under the voluntary policy they emphasize that people must be free to choose their own means of birth control based upon physical considerations and personal beliefs because compulsory measures are generally resisted. Secondly, the method of birth control must be suitable to the individuals involved. Local family planning agencies have been very effective in helping couples establish medical records and in providing them with practical advice. The third concern of the Yi Yang District officials is with assuring people of the safety of the birth control method chosen in order to eliminate unnecessary fears and anxieties about possible side effects. Finally, they stress that family planning assistance should be made available to people at any time. These family planning measures have proved to be very successful and bring about lasting results.     

中国省会城市人口密度对人才集聚的影响研究

随着城市人口规模的扩大和人口密度的提高,城市的经济集聚效应和拥挤效应日益增大。虽然新增人才与普通劳动力产生的拥挤效应相同,但人才具有更高的人力资本和劳动生产率,对城市经济长远发展和在未来城市体系中的位置具有决定性作用,吸引人才集聚成为城市竞争的新焦点。除了拥挤效应外,城市人口密度提升有利于城市内部的知识溢出和工资增长,满足人才的发展需求和预期收入需求,从而促进人才向城市集聚。考虑直辖市和省会城市是全国和区域人口集聚的中心,存在着经济集聚效应和拥挤效应,以中国2003年至2015年30个省会城市(含直辖市)为样本进行实证检验。静态和动态面板数据模型实证结果均表明城市人口密度对人才集聚具有显著的正向促进作用,这意味着当前中国主要城市的经济集聚效应大于拥挤效应,城市的人口密度并未过度稠密,进一步提高城市人口密度有利于人才向城市流动集聚。考虑人才对城市的知识溢出和工资比拥挤效应更加敏感,不同的知识溢出和工资水平条件下,城市人口密度对人才集聚存在着影响差异,门限面板数据模型实证结果显示存在三个区制,分别对应于城市发展的起飞、爬坡和成熟三个阶段,受城市经济集聚效应与拥挤效应相对动态变化的影响,城市...     

Business visits,knowledge diffusion and productivity

We investigate whether labor mobility can be a distinct source of growth by studying the productivity impact of business visits (BVs), vis-à-vis that of other well-known drivers of productivity enhancement. Our analysis uses an unbalanced panel—covering on average 16 sectors per year in ten countries during the period 1998–2011—which combines unique and novel data on BVs sourced from the US National Business Travel Association with Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data on R&D and capital formation. We find that mobility through BVs is an effective mechanism to improve productivity, being about half that obtained by investing in R&D. This relevant finding invites viewing short-term mobility as a strategic mechanism and prospective policy tool to overcome productivity slowdowns and foster economic growth.     

社会保障支出、经济增长与居民消费的区域差异研究

基于扩展的杜森贝利消费函数,以区域差异的视角对东、中、西部地区1997～2009年的社会保障、经济增长与居民消费之间的长短期效应进行实证研究。结果显示,我国社会保障支出、经济增长与居民消费存在长期的协整关系,居民消费水平与社会保障支出呈显著正相关,西部地区社会保障支出对居民消费的拉动作用最大,中部次之,东部最小。其政策含义是:应加大中西部地区在社会保障领域的支持力度,促进地区间公共服务均等化,降低人们的不确定性预期,实现居民消费的稳定性和经济健康发展。     

Immigration and product diversity

We study the effects of immigration on the diversity of consumption choices. Data from California in the 1990s indicate that immigration is associated with fewer stand-alone retail stores and a greater number of large and in particular big-box retailers—evidence that likely contradicts a diversity-enhancing effect of immigration. In contrast, focusing on the restaurant sector for which we can better identify the types of products consumed by customers, we find that immigration is associated with increased ethnic diversity of restaurants. This latter effect appears to come in part from the comparative advantage of immigrants in the production of ethnic goods.     

The business of demographics

The emergence of "demographics" in the past 15 years is a vital tool for American business research and planning. Tracing demographic trends became important for businesses when traditional consumer markets splintered with the enormous changes since the 1960s in US population growth, age structure, geographic distribution, income, education, living arrangements, and life-styles. The mass of reliable, small-area demographic data needed for market estimates and projections became available with the electronic census--public release of Census Bureau census and survey data on computer tape, beginning with the 1970 census. Census Bureau tapes as well as printed reports and microfiche are now widely accessible at low cost through summary tape processing centers designated by the bureau and its 12 regional offices and State Data Center Program. Data accessibility, plummeting computer costs, and businessess' unfamiliarity with demographics spawned the private data industry. By 1984, 70 private companies were offering demographic services to business clients--customized information repackaged from public data or drawn from proprietary data bases created from such data. Critics protest the for-profit use of public data by companies able to afford expensive mainframe computer technology. Business people defend their rights to public data as taxpaying ceitzens, but they must ensure that the data are indeed used for the public good. They must also question the quality of demographic data generated by private companies. Business' demographic expertise will improve when business schools offer training in demography, as few now do, though 40 of 88 graduate-level demographic programs now include business-oriented courses. Lower cost, easier access to business demographics is growing as more census data become available on microcomputer diskettes and through on-line linkages with large data bases--from private data companies and the Census Bureau itself. A directory of private and public demographic resources is appended, including forecasting, consulting and research services available.     

Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

人口老龄化的经济效应研究综述

面对高速而来的老龄化时代，国内外学者分别从社会经济各个方面研究了人口老龄化的影响，其中关于人口老龄化对经济增长的影响尤为显著。本文以经济增长中各要素贡献度的大小为依据，从储蓄、劳动生产率、人力资本等几个方面入手。对这一领域的研究进展进行概括，并总结了其中的焦点与分歧问题。     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.