论国民经济核算体系的理论基础

国民经济核算体系是宏观经济管理的重要工具,它在经济研究的领域中正受到世界各国越来越多的注意。国民经济核算体系首先是经济理论与经济统计相结合的产物,正确地理解核算体系的理论基础,对于核算体系的研究是十分重要的。     

On the experience of projecting the family composition of the population of the USSR

The joint efforts in the USSR by the Central Planning Commission and the State Statistical Commission to develop projections of family characteristics of the Soviet population are described. The projections, based on official data for the rural and urban populations in 1987, are for the years 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006.     

经济体制改革与统计工作改革

党的十二届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于经济体制改革的决定》,正确地总结了历史和现实的经验教训,提出和阐明了经济体制改革的一系列重大理论和方针政策。它对指导我国以城市为重点的整个经济体制改革,对指导我国统计工作改革,都具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。     

Estimation of the parameter in the problem of the nile

Estimation of the parameter in the problem of the Nile is treated as a decision problem with squared error loss, It is shown that the minimum risk scale equivariant estimator dominates the incomplete sufficient unbiased estimators considered by Iwase and Seto, Sharper bounds for the equivariant estimator are derived which may be used to obtain the values of the same from the sample with sufficient accuracy.     

加快商业统计改革的步伐

党的十一届三中全会以来,各级人民政府根据计划经济为主、市场调节为辅的原则和对外开放,对内搞活经济的政策,在流通领域实行了一系列的改革,市场上出现了多条流通渠道、多种经济形式、多种经营方式、多种交易价格的新情况,城乡商品交流呈现出日益活跃的新气象。为了适应客观情况的变化,几年来对商业统计制度逐步进行了改革。但经济体制和流通体制的改革在不断深入发展,继续调整商业所有制结构,恢复供销合作社的集体经济性质,发展集体和个体商业、饮食业,鼓励农民进入流通领域,吸引农民从事商品交换,建立城市贸易中心,冲破“条条”分割和地区封锁,减少工业品与农产品计划购销品种,扩大自由购销范围,一个以国营商业为主导、开放式的“三多,一少”的商品流通体制正在形成。这些变化给商业统计工作带来了许多新问题,提出了很多新任务。     

On the Computation of the Distribution for the Analysis of Means

Abstract

We discuss the accuracy of the computation and present a fortran program to compute the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the analysis of means (ANOM).     

回归分析法在家庭消费分析中的应用探讨

家庭消费的分析,是整个消费经济研究的一个重要组成部分。它不但有助于揭示家庭消费变化的趋势,而且可以为消费品生产结构的调整提供依据,本文结合浙江省农民家庭消费的实际,对回归分析方法在农民家庭消费分析中的应用作一初步探讨。 一、农民家庭消费收入弹性的回归分析 农民家庭消费支出的变化,是受多方面因素影响的。但一般来说,收入水平的变化对其影响较大。德国统计学家恩格尔(E·Engel)曾在研究有关家庭收入与消费支出相互关系的基础上,提出了著名的恩格尔定律。尽管恩格尔定律在我国农民家庭消费分析中的适用性问题     

西部开发:政策涵义与发展体系构建问题研究

中国经济能否保持稳定、持续的长波增长 ,一个关键因素是能否在比较短的时间内解决好中国西部地区的发展问题。如果说沿海和中部地区的问题更多的是如何解决好与国际规则接轨以及从数量型经济增长转变为集约型经济增长 ,那么西部地区则同时面临着生存、改善、提高和进步的一系列问题。如果不能找到西部地区发展的特有模式 ,而简单地套用发达国家或东部地区曾经使用过的发展模式 ,可能导致的后果将不是开发西部 ,而是破坏西部 ,从而进一步扩大西部与东、中部地区的差距。中国西部的落后不是哪个单一要素的短缺 ,而是体现为整个系统的低效——…     

以假"打假"为假作伥

统计打假本是一件十分严谨、辛苦甚至冒风险的事情。打假者既要掌握数字不实的确凿证据 ，要了解造成不实数字的真实原因，要听取被检查者的陈词申诉，还要严格遵循统计执法的法定程序，有时还要因数据背后的利害得失承受种种或软或硬的压力。统计法规检查人员就是这样认真、不懈地处理着一桩桩数字不实问题。 然而对有些人来说，统计打假却似乎成了一件很时尚、很轻松、很随意的事情。他们可以不负责任的“论证”假数，可以不加核实地“披露”假数，可以对查处假数的情况注水、掺假。全国统计执法大检查中，某地的查处结果是假数问题占…     

On the robustness of the power function of the one-sample test for the negative exponential distribution

The robustness of the power function of the standard one-sample parametric test for the mean of the negative exponential distribution is examined. The main form of departure from the exponential assumption is a mixture of negative exponential components although an alternative Gamma distribution is also examined. It is found that the test is sensitive to these departures although the effect of mixtures with short tails is less dramatic than those with long tails.     

贷款制下基建投资回收年限的计算

《统计研究》丛刊第七辑发表了马富泉同志的《怎样正确计算应用投资回收年限指标》一文(以下简称马文),读后很受启发。但也感到贷款制下投资回收年限的计算方法,还有一些问题值得进一步探讨。     

Demographic policy in the light of the resolutions of the Twenty-sixth Congress of the Communist Party

The USSR is moving from extensive to intensive type of population reproduction, not because of any governmental measures but as a reaction to objective circumstances. At present there is a reduction in the population cohort of working age. This has an adverse effect on production. And the number of the elderly is increasing; we must involve them more in the production process, in monitoring the service sphere, for instance. The infant mortality rate has declined sharply in the USSR, especially since World War II. The birthrate has also dropped, but it is still higher than in the US, France, or West Germany. Some authorities think that this (the ZPG) is a good idea, but this author thinks it is a bad idea, meaning a drop in society's productive forces. We need an active demographic policy, meaning one which ensures optimal reproduction of the population with an improvement in its health, culture, and living standard. The policy must be differentiated, as conditions vary from one part of the country to another. An example is the 1981 decree on assistance to families with children which provides for payments of 35-50 rubles/month to mothers who must stay home to look after children. The number of children per family to ensure reproduction must be 2.6 on the average. In the Central Asian republics family sizes of 4-5 children are anticipated, but in the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Baltic republics the anticipated size of families is rather low. Measures must be taken to alter this by providing assistance to families with children.     

在经济体制改革中加速统计工作的改革

沙市市统计局在经济体制改革中,提供了大量的统计资料和统计分析报告,发挥了一定的服务与监督作用,但对反映体制改革中出现的新情况、新问题,感到非常棘手。高度集中统一的统计制度方法,已经远远不能适应这种需要。 我国现行的统计指标体系,本来就不完整。对经济体制改革中出现的许多问题,如改组联合,经济承包,技术引进,利改税等,更是难以反映清楚。随着经济体制改革的深入发展,     

Calculating the mvue of the fraction nonconforming for the bivariate normal

The minimum variance unbiased estimator of the proportion lying outside an m-dimensional rectangle for multivariate normal populations was derived by Baillie (1987a, b). The estimator is a natural extension of a univariate estimator widely used in acceptance sampling. Computation of the multivariate estimator is nontrivial; one must integrate a multivariate density over the intersection of an m-dimensional ellipsoid and an m-dimensional rectangle. We propose an algorithm for the bivariate case which involves a one-dimensional numerical integration and calls to routines for either an incomplete beta function or a Student's t cumulative distribution function     

关于速度与基数关系探讨

任何速度指标的计算,都是以一定的基数为基础的,然而决定速度高低的因素是多方面的。速度与基数之间究竟存在怎样的数量关系以及如何进行统计分析,从理论上进一步探讨是必要的,对指导经济实践也具有现实意义。 一 物质生产的发展速度是报告期与基期的物质产品数量(实物量、价值量)对比的相对数。速度指标是以基数为基础的,但不能把速度的高低简单地、直接地与基数规模的大小相联系,甚至认为基数大了,速度必然就会低。     

关于投资效果系数的计算问题——与徐衡同志商榷

徐衡同志《没资效果计量中的几个问题》一文,对我的一篇他文中关于投资效果系数的计算方法,以及投资与国民收入增长速度之间关系的表述提出了不同意见。 他从剖析一个经济方程式入手,首先对波兰经济学家奥斯卡·兰格教授的下列方程式表     

Evaluating the power of the mann-whitney test using the bootstrap method

In this paper we evaluate the power of the Mann-Whitney test in the shift model G(x) = F (x+θ) for all x , where the distribution of G is obtained by shifting F by an amount of θ.

The bootstrap method was used to evaluate the power of the Mann-Whitney test . A comparison among the bootstrap power , the asymptotic power of the Mann-Whitney test and the t-test power proved that the bootstrap is a better technique , because , it does not require the assumption of normality.     

On the estimation of the parameters of the von mises distribution

The usual maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the von Mises distribution are shown to perform badly in small samples. In view of this and the fact that these estimators require a large amount of computation, alternative, simpler estimators are proposed. It is shown that these estimators are at least comparable to the traditional estimators and are, in many cases, superior to them. We also apply the procedure of jackknifing to the maximum likelihood estimator of the concentration parameter of the von Mises distribution and compare the properties of the jackknifed estimator with the other estimators considered in this paper.     

On the admissibility of the maximum-likelihood estimator of the binomial variance

This paper addresses the admissibility of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) of the variance of a binomial distribution with parameters n and p under squared-error loss. We show that the MLE is admissible for n ≤ 5 and inadmissible for n≥ 6.