Comparison of microcomputer programs for making population projections: an update

"There are many programs for making population projections now available for use with microcomputers. This article reviews six of approximately 15 microcomputer population projection programs. Each program is compared to a standard set of criteria relating to such items as hardware and software requirements, input data requirements and specification of assumptions, methodology and documentation, and summary output indicators. Numerical results from projections of six test data sets reflecting different assumptions about mortality, fertility, and migration are compared. Qualitative comments are included for describing special features and for making an overall assessment of each program." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Comparison of microcomputer programs for making population projections: An update

There are many programs for making population projections now available for use with microcomputers. This article reviews six of approximately 15 microcomputer population projection programs. Each program is compared to a standard set of criteria relating to such items as hardware and software requirements, input data requirements and specification of assumptions, methodology and documentation, and summary output indicators. Numerical results from projections of six test data sets reflecting different assumptions about mortality, fertility, and migration are compared. Qualitative comments are included for describing special features and for making an overall assessment of each program.     

The relations between male and female nuptiality in a stable population

Both male and female nuptiality conditions can be calculated from any given population. Generally these conditions will be inconsistent in the sense that if applied continuously with given mortality and fertility conditions they would produce different sets of marriages, both in total numbers and in age distribution of bridegrooms and brides. It is shown that, given, say, male nuptiality, female nuptiality conditions consistent in the sense that both male and female conditions could hold in a stable population can be deduced. These consistent conditions depend on the ultimately stable rate of growth of the population. The mathematical formulae for the relations connecting various characteristics of the two consistent sets of nuptiality conditions are worked out (e.g. net probability of marrying, mean ages at marriage, marriage-rates at particular ages, etc.), the magnitudes of the parameters in the relations estimated and the relations are translated into numerical terms, showing the effects of changes in the level of the stable rate of growth on the. consistent nuptiality conditions.     

Fertility transition in a rural,Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880-1910

The decline of human fertility that occurred in Europe and North America in the nineteenth century, and elsewhere in the twentieth, remains a topic of debate largely because there is no accepted explanation for the event. This paper uses district-level data from Bavaria to study the correlates of the decline of fertility in that German kingdom in the nineteenth century. Bavaria's fertility transition was later and less dramatic than in other parts of Germany. Our results for Bavaria indicate that the European Fertility Project was right about the role of religion and secularization, but missed an important role for the economic and structural effects stressed by economic historians.     

The size and structure of residential families, Guatemala City, 1964

Abstract In a review of census data for the periods 1945-54 and 1955-63, Burch discloses an increasing tendency for average household sizes to cluster at five to six members for developing nations, compared to three to four for developed nations.(1) Also, among developing nations he finds less than 50% of the population living in households containing three to six persons. This apparently contradicts Levy's general rule which prompted his study, that 'for well over 50% of the members of ... all known societies in world history' actual family size and composition have varied much less than would be expected, given ideal rules of residence which can vary from the classical extended family of Asian renown and European history to the small 'isolated' nuclear family of the modernized West.(2).     

The Philippine population program: a stocktaking

Summarizes findings of the Special Committee to Review the Philippine Population Program, created by the Commission on Population to evaluate population related programs and recommend program directions for the future. The Committee conducted a 2 part study: an indepth review and analysis of existing policies and programs, evaluation of their effectiveness, and identification of organizational, statistical and policy or program related gaps and bottlenecks; and recommendations on policy and program thrusts for the next 5 years. Along with specific recommendations on program operations, service delivery, and research, the Committee made a number of important policy recommendations. Chief among these were a call for the development of a broader popultion policy, not focused only on growth but encompassing demographic, manpower, and welfare components; recognition of the need for the program to advocate an ideal family size and a desirable age for marriage; and redesign of the program on a broad scale to integrate it fully with national development plans.     

The dynamics of the population sex ratio in India, 1971-96

This paper reconstructs the trend in the population sex ratio in India between 1971 ad 1996 from available information on changes in sex differentials in mortality in the country since the beginning of the century. It is estimated that, although the mortality of females relative to that of males in India has improved since 1968, the population sex ratio increased between 1971 and 1981, stayed constant between 1981 and 1991, and started to decrease only after 1991. This implies that the recorded decrease and increase in the periods 1971-81 and 1981-91 respectively were both spurious and were the results of undercounts of females in 1971 and 1991. Another implication of this finding is that, owing to the lagged effect of past mortality on current trends in the population sex ratio, this ratio is a bad proxy for use in the study of changes in differential mortality by sex.     

贵州女性文化素质状况与人口的可持续发展

本文根据几次人口普查和人口抽样调查资料 ,对贵州女性文化素质状况进行初步分析 ,探索其特点和存在的一些基本问题 ,从可持续发展的战略高度来阐明提高贵州女性文化素质的必要性     

The roads of immanence: infrastructural change in southern Chile

In southern Chile, the building of roads has triggered profound socio-material transformation in indigenous worlds. In this article, we attempt to comprehend and conceptualize the capacities of roads to reconstitute radically a relationally constituted world, a world that is therefore in itself contingent. We suggest that the material alteration of indigenous worlds produce uncertain results, including possibly its own destruction. The arguments raised in this article indicate that the analytical and political problem of ontological self-determination can be advanced once reshaped in infrastructural terms.     

The female aging body: A systematic review of female perspectives on aging,health, and body image

While most body image research has focused on young female populations, evidence has shown that as few as 12% of older women are satisfied with their body size. Recent studies have also highlighted how anti-aging discourses are promoting unrealistic body norms, which have shown to contribute to poor body image and altered health behaviors. A systematic review of empirical studies focused on older women’s perspectives of health, body image, and the aging body is presented. Findings support that body image is a persistent, lifelong issue for women and should be considered when implementing healthy aging policies and practices.     

Valuation of Air Quality in Chile: The Life Satisfaction Approach

Social Indicators Research - Chile is one of the worst countries in Latin America in terms of urban air pollution. This situation negatively affects the health and well-being of Chileans. This...     

An estimate of a rare population group: The U.S. Jewish population

High, middle, and low estimates for a rare population group, the Jewish population of the United States, are presented together with their root mean square errors. These estimates are based upon a national sample whose essential survey design features are outlined. The features indicate that difficult-to-find populations can be sampled in adequate numbers if some sort of a list can be developed with a fair proportion of the population. To this list must be added an integrated area sampl     

The education effect on population health: a reassessment

Demographic research frequently reports consistent and significant associations between formal educational attainment and a range of health risks such as smoking, drug abuse, and accidents, as well as the contraction of many diseases, and health outcomes such as mortality—almost all indicating the same conclusion: better-educated individuals are healthier and live longer. Despite the substantial reporting of a robust education effect, there is inadequate appreciation of its independent influence and role as a causal agent. To address the effect of education on health in general, three contributions are provided: 1) a macro-level summary of the dimensions of the worldwide educational revolution and a reassessment of its causal role in the health of individuals and in the demographic health transition are carried out; 2) a meta-analysis of methodologically sophisticated studies of the effect of educational attainment on all-cause mortality is conducted to establish the independence and robustness of the education effect on health; and 3) a schooling-cognition hypothesis about the influence of education as a powerful determinant of health is developed in light of new multidisciplinary cognitive research.     

State population and household estimates,with age,sex, and components of change: 1981-87

This report contains provisional US state estimates of 1) the resident and civilian populations and of households for July 1, 1987, 2) revised annual population and household estimates for July 1, 1981-1986, and 3) components of population change for the 1980-1987 period. Also shown are annual age estimates and median age of the resident population of states, 1981-1987, by sex for 10-year age groups and selected broad age groups. Florida passed Pennsylvania to become the 4th most populous state in 1987, ranking behind California, New York, and Texas. Alaska and Louisiana both registered population losses for the 1st time this decade, while West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Wyoming again had population declines. Several agriculture-based states--Iowa, North Dakota, and Nebraska--marked another year of population declines. California and Florida each gained more than 2 million persons through net immigration since 1980, and Texas over 1.2 million. The 25-44 year-olds are the most rapidly growing age group in the 1980s, increasing by 23.8%. This age group now constitutes almost 1/3 (31.9%) of the US population. US median age continues to climb upward, increasing from 30 years in 1980 to 32.1 years in 1987. The Northeast continues as the region with the highest median age (33.7) and the highest proportion of elderly (13.5% aged 65 and over). Largely because of changes in the age structure, households increased faster than the total population from 1980-1987 (12% versus 7.4%). The 4 states that lost population between 1980 and 1987--Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and West Virginia--all had increases in households during the same period. While the Northeast and Midwest together accounted for only 10.8% of national population growth in the 1980-1987 period, they accounted for 26.9% of the national increase in households. California, Texas, and Florida accounted for 52.4% of national population growth from 1980 to 1987, but only for 36.5% of household growth.     

A note on the population of Iran, 1900-1966

Abstract The first national census of Iran was held in November 1956, and the second in November 1966. Prior to 1956 the only official population records that existed were figures for an urban headcount (held between June 1939 and August 1941) and the statistics of the Civil Registration Office (C.R.O.), which started operations in 1928.     

A Multidimensional Approach to Measuring Economic Insecurity: The Case of Chile

Social Indicators Research - This paper proposes a strategy to measure economic insecurity in countries in the Global South. It builds a 'Multidimensional Economic Insecurity Index' (MEII)...     

The report of the royal commission on population: a review

In this review, the author surveys the Report of the Royal Commission on Population, and assesses the significance of the Commission's findings in the field of demographic analysis and policy.     

Criteria for selecting a suitable method for producing post-2000 county population estimates: A case study of population estimates in Illinois

We compared 2000 county population estimates for Illinois against 2000 census counts. Administrative records (ADREC) and ratio correlation (Ratio-CORR) methods were used to produce two sets of controlled county estimates for 2000; a third set represented an average of the estimates reached using these methods. Another set using the ADREC method was not controlled to any estimate. Also, the 2000 estimates were adjusted for undercount in the 1990 census. We compared performance of these methods with the performance of two naive models: (i) do nothing and (ii) constant growth rate. ADREC estimates were more accurate than estimates from the Ratio-CORR or Average method in terms of Mean Absolute Percent (MAPE) or weighted MAPE. Undercount adjustment in general improved the accuracy of the estimates for all three methods. A top-down or bottom-up approach worked equally well. As a single method, ADREC performed best.     

The asymmetric environmental consequences of population change: an exploratory county-level study of land development in the USA, 2001-2011

In this exploratory study, we decompose population growth and decline into their constituent elements to examine how demographic change drives environmental change. Using the example of land development, the analysis integrates county-level measures of births, deaths, in-migration, and out-migration with data on built-up land area from the National Land Cover Database for the years 2001–2006 and then 2006–2011. Drawing from human ecology and environmental demography, we hypothesize that the components of population change will have asymmetric impacts on the construction of the built environment as a form of land development. Results from spatial error models, with a contemporaneous and a temporarily lagged dependent variable, show conditional support for these hypotheses. While each component of demographic change has a unique effect on the dependent variable, the rate at which births increase built-up land area is significantly greater than the rate at which deaths slow this process down.