Bulletin of major figures from manual tabulation of the national sample survey on fertility and birth control of China

The State Council, the State Family Planning Commission, the State Statistical Bureau, the State Planning Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Public Security of China together carried out a national sample survey on fertility and birth control in China in 1988. The survey was carried out in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The Tibetan Autonomous Region and the Hainan Province were surveyed for the 1st time, but the results from Tibet were not collected in time for this publication. The main respondents were the married women at age 15-57, with 2,114,591 people surveyed and a sampling proportion of 1.98/1000. This article describes the survey and its results according to birth rate, parity composition, and rural-urban fertility differences. Birth rates, mortality rates, and natural increase rates from high to low orders were tabulated for: urban areas, farms, towns, rural townships, and suburban townships. With the first 1/2 of 1988 birth rates tabulated, it was estimated that the total number of births in China will be less than in 1987. In 1987, the rate of 3rd or higher parity birth was below 5% in 6 provinces and municipalities, but 10 provinces and autonomous regions were over 20%. Fertility rates showed considerable disparity depending on the locational demographics (e.g. birth rates in urban areas were 14.3/1000 yet birth rates were 24.3/1000 in suburban townships).     

A survey of China's birth control among women of child-bearing age

To further implement China's family planning policy of "prevention first, birth control first," a study of the current family planning situation was conducted. A survey of the birth control methods employed by women of childbearing age and by men was based on a nationwide randomized sampling of 1/1000. In the different age groups, ranging from 15-49 years old, IUD users accounted for over 50%, tubal sterilization 25%, and vasectomy 10%. The main IUD users were women in the 20-24 age group. Tubal sterilization was more prevalent among the women in the 35-39 age group. The use of oral contraceptives (OCs) was more common among younger women but accounted for less than 10% of the total. The survey was based on the replies to questionnaires from 172,788 married women of childbearing age; 120,022 of them practiced contraceptive methods for a birth control rate of 69.46%. The breakdown was as follows: IUD, 34.84%; tubal sterilization, 17.63%; vasectomy, 6.94%; OCs, 5.86%; condom users, 1.39%; and other methods (including chemical suppositories, rhythm, or safe period method and withdrawal before ejaculation), 2.78%. There was a higher percentage of OC users in urban areas, and a marked preference for IUDs in the rural communities. The rural birth control rate was 68.58%; the urban rate was 74.17%. The use of the IUD has priority in all the areas; its percentage approaches the national average level. The use of vasectomy as a birth control method varies considerably according to area as does the use of OCs, condom, and tubal sterilization. Rural minority groups prefer the IUD and OCs; tubal sterilization, the condom, and vasectomy are preferred by the Han nationality. The birth control rate differed according to the different occoupation groups: 77.85%, workers; 76.01%, farmers; 85.15%, cadres; 59.52%, housewives; and 66.67%, others. The birth control rate was higher among those who received a college education than the illiterates, but statistics did not show a significant difference in the rate of those with a high school education and the illiterates. Mothers of 0-1 children generally preferred OCs; tubal sterilization was preferred by mothers with 2-3 children. The nonusers of contraception accounted for 30.54% among married women of childbearing age. A breakdown gives the following figures: menopause and infertility, 6.17%; divorced and widowed, 1.64%; planned parenthood, 10.51%; nonusers who should have practiced contraception, 12.22%. On a national level, the estimated number of nonusers of contraception among those who should be practicing contraception comes to about 20,000,000 women.     

Effect on unwanted fertility of extending physician-administered birth control in the United States

A goal of publicly subsidized family planning programs in the United States is to prevent unwanted births, and the primary means being used to achieve this goal is to increase coverage with physician-administered contraception, with priority being given to persons from low-income families. We analyzed data from families living in low-income neighborhoods to determine whether that means would contribute to that goal, and if so, how much unwanted fertility might be decreased through increased coverage with physician-administered methods.The results indicate that increased coverage with those methods would decrease unwanted fertility by 80 percent (79 percent among blacks, 83 percent among whites). Increasing the ratio of sterilization to pill and IUD makes the effect of the increased coverage even more dramatic.     

Nuptiality and fertility of birth cohorts

The impact of changes in age patterns of nuptiality on the net reproduction rate is examined using life table techniques and assuming that age-specific fertility within marriage and fertility outside of marriage are fixed. In the second section, a standardization technique is used to investigate the impact of changes in nuptiality on age-cumulative measures of marital fertility. Examples using data for selected generations of Australian women demonstrate the extent to which recent changes in average completed family size in Australia were affected by changing nuptiality patterns.     

China's birth control action programme, 1956-1964

Abstract Drawing upon available information this article throws light on China's birth control action programme, focusing on (1) its organizational set up, (2) the modes of communication, persuasion and pressure employed, (3) products and services provided, and (4) strategies resorted to. The Chinese approach to the birth control campaign has been characterized by two distinct and related strategies: (1) 'tien hsien mien hou' strategy, and (2) 'mass campaign' strategy. According to the first strategy - literally 'point first space later' - the organized efforts are to be concentrated initially on the upper socio-economic strata and major urban areas, then gradually extended to cover lower strata and lesser cities, and eventually expanded to encompass the entire rural areas. This strategy also means that at the regional level a pilot project should be undertaken first, and the experience subsequently employed to tackle a larger area. The 'mass campaign' strategy means conducting crash, intensive, extensive and intermittent publicity campaigns, involving all means of communication at the regime's disposal.     

Communique of the State Family Planning Commission on a nationwide fertility sampling survey of every person per thousand

In 1982, the Chinese State Family Planning Commission conducted a nationwide fertility survey of 1 person/1000 in 28 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. 815 sample units were selected and 310,462 women aged 15-67 were interviewed, 99.9% of those identified. 252,094 (24.77%) were of childbearing age (15-49) with 24.76% 15-19 years old. Among women of fertile age, 31.46% were unmarried, 64.53% were married to their 1st husbands, 2.89% were remarried, .19% were divorced, and .94% were widowed. Average age of 1st marriage increased from 18.4 in the 1940s to 22.8 in 1981. Total fertility rate dropped from 5.44 in the 1940s to 2.63 in 1981. In 1981, the birth rate was 85/1000 women of fertile age. Fertility was much higher among minority nationalities. 118 million of China's 170 million married couples of reproductive age (69.46%) use birth control at present; 50.2% use the IUD, 25.4% tubal ligation, 10.0% vasectomy, 8.2% oral contraceptives, and 2.0% condoms. About 21 million married women should have begun using contraception but have not. 14 million or 42.3% of 33 million 1 child couples have pledged to have only 1 child. If the fertility level of 1981 is maintained and the average woman continues to have 2.63 children, 2.91 in rural areas, China's population will reach 1.2 billion by 1993 and will exceed 1.3 billion by 2000. The Central Committee has a target population of 1.2 billion by 2000.     

Socioeconomic determinants of China's urban fertility

This paper examines socioeconomic forces other than population policies and family planning programs that have affected the fertility transition in urban China. The authors argue that before and since the intensification of population planning activities, the government influenced fertility directly and indirectly through socialization of the economy, the transformation of the Chinese family, and the provision of education, employment, health, medical, welfare, cultural, and related services in urban areas. The various social institutions and subsystems of society have greatly weakened the motivation for large families. The byproducts of the slow urbanization process in urban China including housing shortages, unemployment, rising living standards, changes in the cost of raising a child, and urban-rural downward mobility have affected the social and economic costs of childbearing, which in turn have affected the postponement of childbearing. Thus, our considerations of urban China's fertility transition must be broadened to include the issues of social development strategy in Chinese urban experience.     

A new method for estimating the level of natural fertility in populations practicing birth control

The natural fertility schedule of a population is the schedule of age-specific marital fertility we would observe if no birth control were being practiced. In natural fertility (no birth control) populations we can observe the natural fertility schedule directly, but in populations practicing birth control the natural fertility schedule is disguised by the marital fertility rates in those age intervals in which control is exercised, the marital fertility rates being below the natural rates. This paper elaborates a method for estimating the natural fertility schedules of populations practicing birth control. Two alternative models are presented, one nonlinear and one linear. The use of these models is then illustrated with reference to the Old Order Amish population of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. It is shown that for Amish women born between 1860 and 1900 both the nonlinear and linear models yield an estimate of .843 as the ratio between Amish and Hutterite natural fertility schedules.     

On some characteristics of China's population--analysis of the ten percent sampling tabulation of the 1982 third national population census

Advance results from the 1982 census of China are presented based on a 10 percent sample. Sections are included on age distribution, centenarians, marriage patterns, educational status, and the labor force. Several characteristics of China's population are described in this article, based on a 10% sampling tabulation of the production teams and resident groups of the whole country. Data are included for 100,380,000 people. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 is 33.60%, which marks a decline from figures in the 1964 census (40%). This decline is attributed to family planning and population control efforts. The median age is 22.91 years, which is 2.71 years older than that in the 1964 census. The % of the population aged 15-64 rose from 55.7% in 1964 to 61.5%. The dependency ratio dropped from 79.4% (1964) to 62.6%. There were 3,765 centenarians as of July, 1982; the overwhelming majority live in villages, and most (94.77%) are illiterate or semiliterate. The number of female centenarians is 2.4 times that of males. Marriages are comparatively stable in China. 63.6% of the population aged 15 and over are married, and .59% are divorced. The % of the population remaining single after age 50 is .21% for females, 2.97% for males. The average 1st marriage age is 22.80 years for females and 25.49 years for males. 60.35% of the people have had primary education or above; .44% are college graduates. In 1964, 33.58% of the population illiterate or semiliterate. At present, among people aged 12 and over, 31.90% are illiterate or semiliterate. The rural illiteracy rate is more than twice the urban rate. 51.94% of the total population is employed. Of these, 92.08% are engaged in manual labor. Males exceed females in all professions and occupations. The median age of the employed population is 30.84 years. The level of education among the employed is relatively low: 28.26% are illiterate or semiliterate, and 34.35% have had primary education only.     

Age-parity-specific birth rates and birth probabilities from census or survey data on own children

The ‘own-children’ method is a census- or survey-based reverse-survival technique for estimating age-specific birth rates for years previous to enumeration. In this paper it is extended to estimate birth rates and birth probabilities by parity as well as by age. The refined method is tested for accuracy by comparing ‘own-children’ estimates of age-parity-specific birth probabilities for the United States in 1969 with parallel estimates obtained by the method used in Vital Statistics of the United States. The ‘own-children’ estimates give relatively lower values at ages 15-19 and higher values at ages above 40, but compare well in between. The discrepancies are probably due mainly to adoption of illegitimate children of young mothers by older women. The ‘own-children’ estimate of the total fertility rate is very close to the published vital statistics estimate.     

Assessing the effects of intermediate variables on birth interval-specific measures of fertility

This paper proposes a technique to simultaneously assess the effect of selected intermediate variables on the dynamics of birth intervals and to aggregate such effects across births of different order. The essentials, virtues and limitations of other approaches are 1st summarized. A method to link measures of birth interval dynamics to aggregated measures of fertility such as the age-specific fertility rates and total fertility is explained. A set of operations is suggested, required to translate estimates of birth interval-specific effects of intermediate variables into aggregate effects (e.g., effects at the level of fertility rates). These operations effectively permit the synthesis of results from multivariate procedures and those of techniques aimed at decomposing the effects of intermediate variables. Discussed are estimation and measurement procedures to deal with deal available from retrospective interviews carried out as part of the World Fertility Survey (WFS) program. The effects of marriage pattern are not considered. The effects of lactation are measured by using a dichotomous variable with a value of 1 if the preceding child was breast fed for at least as long as 9 months less than the beginning of the segment of interest and 0 otherwise. Following the assignment of a measure of effectiveness, 3 groups are distinguished in measuring contraceptive use: non-contraceptors, those using an ineffective method, and effective contraceptors. With respect to measuring the effects of induced abortion and spontaneous fetal losses, a variable is created indicating whether or not a birth leading to a fetal loss or the fetal loss itself had occurred within the segment being examined. 2 indicators, 1 a binary variable and the other aimed at measuring gradations of sterility are introduced to measure exposure to intercourse and sterility. Logit regression coefficients for selected intermediate variables are presented for Peru. The tables reveal the power of the variables measuring contraception. The evidence offers strong indications to support the contention that some form of birth control makes a difference as it does to confirm a priori expectations about success of different types of users. The inhibiting effects of breast feeding are generally in the direction expected but they are not always statistically significant. They appear to be stronger at higher parities and more intense in the earlier parts of the birth intervals. The effects of the variable representing continuity of marital union are surprisingly strong and significant for all segments of 10 months of width and for all births of order higher than 1.     

Immigration,below-replacement fertility,and long-term national population trends

The long-term demographic effects of immigration on a population experiencing below-replacement fertility are studied by assuming that the size and age composition of the immigrant population do not change over time. The size of the first-generation immigrant population becomes stationary within a time period not greater than the human life span. Thereafter, the number dying equals the number entering over any given time interval. The stationarity of the native population, among which deaths exceed births, is maintained by the compensating number of births to the immigrant population. The limiting age distribution of the country's population, although stationary, may not decline monotonically with age and may look like a camel's back, with one or two humps.     

中国西部民族地区的人口生育与死亡状况浅析

西部民族地区包括中国少数民族人口最集中的8个省区,少数民族人口占全国少数民族人口的63.41%。受到这些地区本身历史的、自然的、民族的、以及社会经济发展水平等多种因素影响,其人口状况也表现为与中国中、东部很大的不同,具有自身显著的独特性。本文通过对历次人口普查资料和有关统计数据的分析,对中国西部民族地区的人口变动以及自然增长状况进行了系统地分析,得出了一些有意义的结论。     

The effects of gender control on fertility and children's consumption

Effects of sex preference on investments in children‘s human capital, bequests and fertility are studied, with and without sex selection, in a model based on parental altruism. Both pure sex preference, a feature of the parental utility function, and indirect preference, which arises from gender-related differences in earnings opportunities, are examined. When there is no gender control the impact of pure sex preference is seen in smaller consumption for daughters than for sons. However, when gender control is exerted, sex preference raises the sex ratio and it is possible that sisters may, on average, consume no less than their more numerous brothers. In an example of the model with specific functional forms, parents who practise gender control have larger families than if sex selection techniques were unavailable. The effect is magnified if sons‘ earnings opportunities are better than daughters‘. JEL classification: D11, J13, J16 Received August 31, 1995 / Accepted May 2, 1996     

Notes on abortion and birth control in Germany

In this paper the author discusses the legislation regarding abortion and contraception which applies in the western zones of Germany to-day. He states that a number of regulations made under the National Socialist regime are still enforced and discusses the consequences of this state of affairs.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

低生育水平下中国人口规模与年龄结构的变化

本文借助一些机构对21世纪中叶中国人口变化的预测 ,就未来50年低生育水平对中国人口规模和年龄结构的影响进行了初步的分析