Research on international migration and census data co-operation in Latin America

Population censuses in Latin America have generally recorded the place of birth of all persons enumerated. The use of those data for the study of international migration has been less common because international movements were judged to be a relatively weak factor determining demographic change in the majority of Latin American countries and because the data gathered were generally not tabulated with sufficient detail. During the 1970s, the UN Latin American Demographic Center (CELADE) realized that international migration was not necessarily a minor factor in their evolution and launched a program to improve the quality and availability of census information on the foreign-born population enumerated by each country. The program on International Migration in Latin America (IMILA) has therefore been in operation for more than 10 years and has been successful in eliciting the in-depth tabulation and exploitation of census information in the majority of Latin American countries and in the 2 main receivers in the Americas: Canada and the US. As part of the IMILA project, CELADE has become the depository of magnetic tapes with census information on the foreign-born population, thus gaining greater flexibility in the exploitation of the data available. On the basis of the information gathered, CELADE has published twice in the past decade a compilation of tabulations of the foreign-born population by country of enumeration, country of birth, age, and sex. Although census data on place of birth are not free from problems, particularly in countries where illegal migrants may not be adequately enumerated by a census, they are a valuable source of reasonably comparable information on the overall impact of migration in receiving countries and are often the only source of information on emigration from the sending countries.     

The Canada-United States joint immigration study: issues in data comparability

The Canada-US immigration project is an attempt to assess carefully the flows, trends, and characteristics of immigrants between the 2 countries. The primary focus for data is the census information derived from the 1980 US and 1981 Canadian censuses. Some observations of the comparison follow. 1) US-born immigrants tend to migrate later. 2) Immigrants have an older age structure than the total population. 3) The sex ratio pattern is similar with older migrants having lower ratios. 4) Immigration of elderly/retired is not a common pattern. 5) Changes in regional destinations is a basic feature of immigration flows. The destination of US immigrants shifted over time from northern states to southern states. Destinations of Canadian immigrants shifted over time from Quebec and prairie provinces to Ontario and British Columbia. 6) A higher proportion of US immigrants ever married and were widowed; higher proportions of Canadian immigrants divorced, and lower proportions separated. These aspects reflect age structure. 7) US immigrants' fertility is similar to the US population in general; Canadian immigrants' fertility is similar to the Canadian population in general. 8) US immigrants born in Canada have a considerably higher attainment. 9) Males aged 16-64 among US immigrants born in Canada have a consistently higher labor force participation rate. 10) Professional specialty occupations increase in importance in the 1975-1980 period in both countries. 11) Incomes of recent immigrants who were full-time, year-round workers from Canada or the US were well above the incomes of the native populations of either country. Comparability had to be examined in light of the variations built into the 2 censuses. Some of these issues are: 1) differences in sampling and collection methods, 2) differences in under/over-enumeration, 3) misreporting of country of birth, 4) differences in questions used, 5) different editing and imputation procedures applied, 6) variations in residence rules, and 7) the exclusion or inclusion of certain groups in the national census counts.     

Census data on non-profit organisations

This paper describes how the Bureau of the Census collects and publishes data on non-profit organisations in its economic censuses programme. The paper provides a brief history of the economic censuses and describes in more detail the census of service industries component. The progressive expansion of the industry coverage of the census is explained and related to the non-profit sector. The paper further describes concepts and methodologies that are used in collecting and publishing data for non-profit organisations. Definitions, methods of enumeration, and basic data measures are explained and contrasted to concepts used in covering the for-profit sector. Finally, the paper describes how census data can be used to better understand the non-profit sector and identifies some possibilities for improving information from the economic censuses and other statistical programmes which cover non-profit organisations.     

Estimation of International Migration in Post‐Soviet Republics

When annual migration data lack reliability, scholars apply alternative methods for estimating international migration. Yet, researchers note that alternative approaches have primarily been tested on developed countries, rather than developing countries that usually have dramatic migration shifts. I close this research gap. I use the example of 15 former Soviet republics to demonstrate several conclusions. First, I show that such alternative approaches as immigration‐by‐origin data of receiving countries do not result in reliable and valid estimates of post‐Soviet migration, given the large variation that exists in how former Soviet republics define “migrant”. Second, I demonstrate that population censuses, while a more superior alternative, fail to capture temporary migrants. In developing countries, the international emigration is mainly due to temporary (undocumented labour) migration. Third, I suggest that scholars and policy‐makers should apply household surveys as a possible alternative. However, while this method seems promising, given the limited use of household surveys in migration measurement in the post‐Soviet republics, future research by both scholars and applied researchers should explore the advantages and limitations of household surveys as an alternative source for estimation of migration. Finally, I outline methodological guidelines that researchers and scholars can advance on migration issues in the post‐Soviet region.     

International migration statistics in Mexico

During the past decade, Mexico has experienced both large-scale emigration directly, mostly to the US, and the mass immigration of Central American refugees. The implementation of the US Immigration and Control Act of 1986 and the possible escalation of armed conflicts in Central America may result in expanded inflows either of returning citizens or of new refugee waves. To develop appropriate policy responses, Mexico needs reliable information on international migration flows. This research note reviews available sources of that information--arrival and departure statistics, population censuses, refugee censuses, and survey data--and concludes that most of them are relatively weak. Currently, the published data on entries and departures provide little information on the demographic impact of legal migration, although they suggest that the inflow of foreigners is small. The census corroborates such findings, but it yields inadequate demographic detail. The movement of Mexican nationals, on the other hand, is poorly reflected by both sources. The void they leave has been palliated somewhat by surveys, but the only nationally representative survey on emigration was carried out in the late 1970s and might be a less than ideal basis for current policy formulation. It is hoped that as the relevance of international migration becomes more evident, steps towards the improvement of existing statistical systems may be undertaken. In the absence of such measures, policy-makers and researchers will have to continue relying on ad hoc surveys to answer the most pressing questions on the subject.     

Using national recording systems for the measurement and analysis of immigration to the United States

This article considers the kinds of data required to increase scientific knowledge about US immigration and, in light of those requirements, assesses the principal currently available data sets and makes recommendations for improving the data environment. Study of US immigration phenomena requires data with 3 properties: 1) that they cover immigrants, sponsors, and nation-states; 2) that they measure and link the migration-relevant attributes of the immigrants, sponsors, and nation-states, including the visa histories of both immigrants and sponsors; and 3) that they capture the migration-relevant attributes in a longitudinal manner. The 2 principal data sources currently available for studying immigration--the US decennial censuses and the administrative records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service--fall far short of the data requirements dictated by current reasoning and models about the migration process. Current data sources do not permit, except under stringent assumptions, the estimation of models of such phenomena as earnings, language acquisition, marital behavior, and fertility behavior. The authors propose both a new data-collection effort and a set of enhancements to existing data sources. Perhaps the most efficient way to learn more about immigration would be to design and implement a new data-collection effort with great success. In the meantime, proposed enhancements to existing data sources could help fill some gaps in present knowledge.     

Using census data to study elderly migration: problems and possibilities

Although the elderly are the fastest growing of all age groups in developed countries, their migration remains little studied. Elderly migration differs in several fundamental ways from that of other age groups, but many of the data collection and analysis procedures, as well as basic concepts used in censuses, have been developed with the working population in mind and are of limited utility in studying elderly migration. This article discusses some of the problems using census data to identify movers among the elderly population, and to analyze the characteristics of movers and the causes of migration. The author concludes that it is clear that what is needed with respect to census data on elderly migration is not necessarily new questions to be included. Instead, more appropriate decisions need to be made at the stages of deciding what variables to code and what categories are to be included. In addition, at the stage of determining tabulation programs there needs to be greater sensitivity to finer age breakdowns among elderly migrants and to the selection of cross-tabulation variables which are more relevant to issues and problems of the aged. Hugo suggests that an authoritative agency convene a working group to establish guidelines which address the following issues. 1) What are appropriate age breakdowns? 2) What are appropriate variables for detailed cross-tabulations? 3) Exactly what is an appropriate form for migration data to be prepared for multi-regional analysis? 4) What is the most appropriate way of formatting public use sample tapes to make analyses for assisting in the study of elderly migration? 5) How should the institutional population among the aged be dealt with? Another recommendation which arises out of the issues raised here is that, analysts should give a clear indication of what movers are actually missed by census data and which types of movers are included. Awareness of the limitations of particular data sources is of critical significance to meaningful interpretation of results if one is seeking a better understanding of the causes and consequences of important social phenomena.     

Seeking Social Security: An Alternative Motivation for Mexico-US Migration

In this analysis we investigate the degree to which the absence of effective pension systems may generate motivations for international migration as a means of self-financing retirement. Using ethnosurvey data gathered in selected Mexican communities and US destination areas, we estimate models to predict the odds of US migration from indicators of relative wages and whether or not jobs in Mexico were covered by that country's social security system. We find that by holding constant the binational differential in expected wages, the odds of out-migration were much higher for male household heads working in jobs that were not covered by social security compared with those working in jobs that enjoyed such coverage. Subsequent analyses showed that the odds of receiving a pension in old age were systematically higher for former US migrants, and that the likelihood of pension receipt rose steadily as the number of US trips and amount of US experience accumulated.     

Migration and the population census in Asia and the Pacific: issues,questions and debate

Skeldon discusses the main issues to be resolved when designing questions and strategies to collect migration-related data. The strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches are assessed in the light of the data collected by countries in the Asia-Pacific region during the 1980 round of Censuses. Each country has its own particular needs and must devise its questions accordingly. However, there are a few general principles that are likely to improve the quality of the basic data collected. Some of these principles follow. 1) Detailed information on migration can only be collected through specialized surveys. The census data must be able to provide information on the basic spatial and temporal structures of migration and only upon these can detailed subsequent work proceed. 2) De facto enumeration will not only provide a better quality of information, but will also capture a higher proportion of total human mobility than de jure enumeration. A question of last previous residence and a finely coded duration of residence question are likely to generate the most useful migration data. For reasons of simplicity, continuity, and utility, the question on birthplace is a fundamental census question. 3) In order not to overload census questionnaires, additional information on migration is best collected either through specialized census sample modules or through separate sample surveys.     

Census Undercount: An Historical and Contemporary Sociological Issue*

As the public policy uses of U. S. census data have expanded in recent decades, census undercount has become a contentious public issue. Concern centers on the fact that persons that are economically and socially disadvantaged are omitted at higher rates than others. In this paper we outline some of the contributions which sociologists can make to the undercount debate. First, the uses of census data are reviewed, with emphasis on how coverage errors affect social science research. Next, a conceptual model of the census enumeration process is offered, and its social system and census process components are described.     

The indirect estimation of migration: a critical review

Indirect estimation techniques for measuring emigration were first proposed by members of the IUSSP Working Group for the Study of International Migration, as a complement to methods based on more traditional types of data such as place of birth, place and duration of residence, and date of arrival. 2 approaches were suggested: 1, based on obtaining information from mothers on the place of residence of their children, was proposed by Somoza; the other, which requires all respondents to furnish information about the place of residence of their brothers and sisters, was developed by Hill. The aim of both methods is to obtain an estimate of the total number, and distribution by age and sex, of persons born in 1 country, but residing in another. The residence of children method has now been tried in at least 10 different censuses and surveys, mainly in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the analysis of these data allows assessment of the methods' strengths and weaknesses with some confidence. The residence of sibling technique has not been used as widely, so that, in spite of its theoretical attractions, its performance in the field cannot be evaluated to the same extent. This article seeks to summarize the methodology and to examine some recent theoretical developments. In particular, an assessment is presented of biases in the estimates of emigration obtained by the indirect methods. 3 main sources of error have been identified: reporting errors arising during fieldwork, estimation errors arising in the course of analysis through the use of biased inputs, and errors due to the use of age distributions of relatives derived from model stable populations.     

Alternative estimates of the volume of emigration from Canada, 1961–71*

L'apport de l'immigration à l'accroissement de la population au Canada a souvent fait l'objet d'une attention toute particulière. Cependant, on est beaucoup moins bien renseigné sur l'impact qu'a pu avoir l'émigration, puisqu'il n'existe aucune donnée sur le nombre réel de personnes quittant le Canada. Cet exposé présente d'abord trois évaluations du nombre d'émigrants du Canada au cours de la période intercensitaire 1961–71, obtenues à partir de trois méthodes différentes, et on tente de déterminer quelle évaluation est la plus fiable. On montre que le processus d'élaboration des politiques canadiennes d'immigration se doit de tenir compte de l'émigration. The contribution of immigration to Canada's population growth has received considerable analytical attention. However, much less is known about the impact which emigration has had on the nation's population growth, particularly since actual data are not available on the number of persons emigrating from Canada. This paper presents three different emigration estimates for Canada for the 1961–71 intercensal period derived from different estimation procedures, endeavours to determine which estimate is the most reliable one, and demonstrates the importance of considering emigration in the continuing reformulation of Canada's immigration policies.     

Geographical and geodemographic connections between different types of small area as the origins and destinations of migrants to Mid-Wales

Exchanges of population between supposedly ‘urban’ and ‘rural’ spaces have occurred throughout history as people migrate between areas with relatively, densely and sparsely settled populations. However, comparatively little is known about whether the same small areas persistently contribute to the flow and what types of locality are involved. Recent counterurbanising migration represents both a re-location of the centres of population growth from urban to rural areas in many developed countries, and a refashioning of the characteristics and lifestyles of residents occupying the countryside. Mid-Wales classically exemplifies the changing demographic fortune of many rural areas having experienced a long period of population decline, followed by a general but locally fluctuating upturn since the 1970s. Using empirical information from recent British censuses on numbers of 1-year migrants and from a national geodemographic classification of small areas, this paper explores the geographical and socio-economic connections between the origins and destinations of those people who moved into Mid-Wales during the closing decades of the 20th century. It concludes that certain places and types of locality have stronger migratory links enduring beyond the period covered by a single census enumeration.     

The nature and scope of international migration data in Nigeria

Nigeria, the largest country in Western Africa, has been attracting migrants from neighboring countries for the past decade or so. Although most of the movement of African migrants has occurred outside the regulatory framework set up to control migration, it is important to know the main elements of the latter to understand the likely limitations of the data collection systems currently in operation. Sources of data on international migration include censuses, arrival and departure statistics, work and resident permits, and sample surveys. The author concludes that, with the exception of information on residence and work permits, the relationship between Nigeria's data sources and the laws regulating migration is weak. Arrival and departure statistics, in particular, are not designed to distinguish migrants from all other international travellers. Lacking the political will to modify the system in accordance with internationally accepted recommendations, the prospects for increasing the usefulness of available data are grim.     

English Language Proficiency Among the Foreign Born in the United States, 1980–2007: Duration,Age, Cohort Effects

This study employs pooled data from the 1980 through 2000 censuses and 2001 through 2007 American Community Survey data to study English language proficiency among foreign‐born in a dynamic framework. Our findings show continuing significance of duration of stay and age at migration and declining English language proficiency across successive cohorts. Additionally, analysis enabled by availability of single‐year data from 2000 to 2007 indicates acquisition of language proficiency as steepest during first 9 years upon arrival and for migrating age group 6–17. Further, we find significant differences by education, regions of origin, racial groups, and by regions of residence.     

Measuring Undocumented Migration

This article reviews standard sources of demographic data‐censuses, intercensal surveys, registration systems, and specialized surveys and describes their inability to provide accurate data on immigrants, particularly those without documents. We discern a need for data that can identify undocumented migrants and their characteristics, measure trends over time, support longitudinal research, compare the characteristics of migrants before and after they enter, provide sufficient sample sizes for detailed analyses, study transitions between different legal statuses and movements back and forth, and monitor the effects of policy changes on a timely basis. We suggest that the ethnosurvey design satisfies these criteria. We describe the theory, structure, and organization of the ethnosurvey and then describe its application in the Mexican Migration Project. We then highlight its application in other locations around the world and outline an agenda for future comparative research.     

Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach Beyond Gravity1

We quantified determinants of international migratory inflows to 17 Western countries and outflows from 13 of these countries between 1950 and 2007 in 77,658 observations from multiple sources using panel-data analysis techniques. To construct a quantitative model that could be useful for demographic projection, we analyzed the logarithm of the number of migrants (inflows and outflows separately) as dependent variables in relation to demographic, geographic, and social independent variables. The independent variables most influential on log inflows were demographic [log population of origin and destination and log infant mortality rate (IMR) of origin and destination] and geographic (log distance between capitals and log land area of the destination). Social and historical determinants were less influential. For log outflows from the 13 countries, the most influential independent variables were log population of origin and destination, log IMR of destination, and log distance between capitals. A young age structure in the destination was associated with lower inflows while a young age structure in the origin was associated with higher inflows. Urbanization in destination and origin increased international migration. IMR affected inflows and outflows significantly but oppositely. Being landlocked, having a common border, having the same official language, sharing a minority language, and colonial links also had statistically significant but quantitatively smaller effects on international migration. Comparisons of models with different assumed correlation structures of residuals indicated that independence was the best assumption, supporting the use of ordinary-least-squares estimation techniques to obtain point estimates of coefficients.     

Recent Trends of Emigration from China: 1982–2000

Using data from several Chinese censuses and surveys, we provide a new perspective for the study of international migration. Focusing on the trends of international migration from China and Fujian province between 1982 and 2000, several findings emerge. First, Fujian and Yunnan provinces became the leading immigrant‐sending provinces in China by 2000. Second, changes in socio‐economic selectivity among emigrants from Fujian province from 1990 to 1995 are also clearly revealed in our analysis. The shift from urbanites to rural peasants among the emigrant population is particularly noteworthy. Third, in the context of Fujian province, factors such as age, education, rural/urban status, and occupation (especially the service sector) are the most important predictors of emigration. The paper ends with a discussion of the prospects of assimilation of Fujianese immigrants in destination societies.     

Migration narratives in Northern Triangle,Mexican and US media from 1999 to 2019

This study conceptualizes the mediated discussions of migration in Central America as narratives, arguing for the need to examine the broader contours of policy-related migration reporting across time. Using machine learning and text mining analyses, combined with qualitative narrative analysis, the study examines 53,441 news articles from 17 US, Mexican and Northern Triangle media outlets from 1999 to 2019, tracing and critiquing the shifts in coverage. Findings suggest that all three media systems generally align in their depiction of the scene, key agents and acts regarding migration; however, US narratives increasingly diverge from Northern Triangle and Mexican narratives regarding the purpose and instruments by which migration occurs, with US value claims narrowing over time emphasizing border security. This narrative trajectory within US media ignores migrants' determination and underlining rationales for migration, pushing them to take increasingly dangerous means to migrate to the USA and exacerbating the situation for all parties.     

Social mobility among migrants between Mexico and the U.S. and within the U.S. labor market

This paper uses data collected in 4 Mexican communities (2 rural and 2 urban) in 1982 and 1983, using a sample of 200 households, plus an additional 25 households. This analysis supports these hypotheses: 1) a U-shaped pattern of occupational mobility exists among migrants to the US; 2) the reversal of the initial downward mobility is positively correlated with the accumulation of experience within the US; and 3) the relative steepness of both legs of the pattern vary across socioeconomic with rural origin, illegal, and poorly educated migrants experiencing the slowest reversal of fortune. The occupational mobility of Mexican migrants to the US has 2 distinct phases: 1) labor market entry and 2) that which occurs within the US labor market. Both phases are characterized by occupational immobility and by migrants' area of origin. Other important findings are 1) the slowness with which upward mobility occurs among migrants on their 1st trip, 2) the dominance of agriculture as an occupational group, and 3) an improvement in mobility prospects with increased US experience for repeat migrants. Immobility for 1st time entrants pervades all occupational categories and is exceptionally high for rural origin migrants in agriculture. Rural origin unskilled workers encounter greater mobility constraints, indicating a rural agricultural worker may accomplish an upward movement to the unskilled category, but the chances of further movement are remote. Upon entering the US, the probability of being employed in agriculture is over 25% for all groups except the unskilled. Adjusting successfully to US society is best accomplished by migrants whose Mexican occupation is professional, technical, skilled, or service or who have carefully timed their migration and have accumulated significant experience in the host society. It is only with exposure to the US society, either through a prolonged stay or many trips, that a migrant can overcome the debilitating effects of a disadvantaged socioeconomic background.