Agricultural development and emigration: rhetoric and reality

"The untested premise of trade liberalizing U.S. development programs such as the Caribbean Basin Initiative is that commodity trade can substitute for international labor migration. Analysis of U.S. tomato producing regions in Sinaloa, Mexico and Florida suggests that the effect of trade liberalization on international labor migration is uncertain." The emphasis is on how such development projects might affect the flow of illegal migrants to the United States.     

Chicano return migration to the Southwest: an integrated human capital approach

"This study uses an integrated human capital framework to examine the relationship between human capital, employment and ethnic factors and return migration to the Southwest [United States] among Chicanos. The sample used in the study is derived from the 1980 Public Use Microdata Samples and contains 1,926 Chicano householders between the ages of 25 and 64 who were born in one of five southwest states, lived outside of this region in 1975, and worked in the civilian labor force at any time between 1975 and 1980. The results suggest that various human capital, employment and ethnic composition variables are important predictors of Chicano return migration."     

The rural exodus in Mexico and Mexican migration to the United States

"During the 1950s, labor conditions in the United States attracted Mexican migrants, mostly from rural areas, in sharply fluctuating patterns of active recruitment, laissez-faire or repatriation. Because [the rural exodus and migration to the United States] have varied simultaneously and because they are interrelated, it has been assumed that the rural exodus in Mexico generally explains the flow of migrants across the border to the United States. This article argues that they must be analyzed instead as two distinct movements. Data presented show that most of the migrants created by the prevailing conditions in Mexican rural villages settle within Mexico and that only specific types of migrants are attracted over the border."     

When immigrants are not migrants: counting arrivals of the foreign born using the U.S. census

"This paper compares characteristics of recent immigrant arrivals in the United States using two measures from the decennial U.S. census: the came-to-stay question and the migration question.... Among recent arrivals, defined as those who reported they came to stay in the quinquennium preceding the census, a large number were resident in the United States five years before the census date. Furthermore, the proportion of recent arrivals present in the United States five years before the census increased between 1975-1980 and 1985-1990.... Generally, in both the 1975-1980 and 1985-1990 cohorts, those resident in the United States five years before the census have significantly less schooling and lower incomes than those who were abroad."     

Determinants of 1980 to 1990 Net Migration in Texas Counties: The Role of Sustenance Specialization and Dominance in International Ecosystems

Abstract Patterns of 1980–1990 migration differ markedly from those of the 1970s but they have received little conceptual or empirical analysis because of limited data and because their diversity has resisted theoretical generalization. An expanded human ecological perspective incorporating international dimensions is hypothesized to explain differentials in migration during the 1980s. Counties with key functions which operate in international ecosystems in which the United States is dominant are hypothesized to control more resources and to have the highest net inmigration. Hypotheses are tested using regression analyses of 1980–1990 net migration for Texas' 254 counties. The results generally confirm that key functional activities were related to migration but less so in nonmetropolitan areas. Implications for rural development and for further research are discussed.     

The migratory impact of minimum wage legislation: Puerto Rico, 1970-1987

"This study examines the impact of minimum wage setting on labor migration. A multiple time series framework is applied to monthly data for Puerto Rico from 1970-1987. The results show that net emigration from Puerto Rico to the United States fell in response to significant changes in the manner in which minimum wage policy was conducted, particularly after 1974. The extent of commuter type labor migration between Puerto Rico and the United States is influenced by minimum wage policy, with potentially important consequences for human capital investment and long-term standards of living."     

Undocumented residents in the United States in 1990: issues of uncertainty in quantification

"Uncertainties are abundant about the measurement of net undocumented migration [to the United States] and change over the past two decades. This analysis presents possible upper and lower boundaries on components for estimating legal migration in 1980-1989 and on the foreign-born population in 1990. Positing ranges for net undocumented immigration, between 2 million and 4 million undocumented residents may have been counted in the 1990 census. The total number of undocumented residents may have been as high as 6 million."     

Current trends and patterns of female migration: evidence from Mexico

"This study uses a new source of data to assess trends and patterns of female migration from Mexico. Data were collected from migrants interviewed in ten Mexican communities from 1987 through 1990, as well as from outmigrants from those communities who were later located in the United States. The first part of the analysis examines changes in migrant behavior throughout the 1980s by estimating trends in the probability of first-time and repeat migration and by assessing the impact of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) on these trends.... The study then considers the determinants of female Mexican-U.S. migration by examining whether and how women's recent moves reflect their personal characteristics, the resources in their households, or a process of family reunification." This paper was originally presented at the 1992 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

The uncertain connection: free trade and rural Mexican migration to the United States

"Will a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) decrease Mexican migration to the United States, as the U.S. and Mexican governments assert, or increase migration beyond the movement that would otherwise occur, as NAFTA critics allege? This article argues that it is easy to overestimate the additional emigration from rural Mexico owing to NAFTA-related economic restructuring in Mexico. The available evidence suggests four major reasons why Mexican emigration may not increase massively, despite extensive restructuring and displacement from traditional agriculture....NAFTA-related economic displacement in Mexico may yield an initial wave of migration to test the U.S. labor market, but this migration should soon diminish if the jobs that these migrants seek shift to Mexico."     

The internal migration and spatial redistribution of the foreign-born population in the United States: 1965-70 and 1975-80

"This article examines the importance of place of birth [for] the internal migration and spatial redistribution patterns of the foreign-born population in the United States during the 1965-70 and the 1975-80 periods, relying principally on the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files for our input data. The diverse nationalities are aggregated into eight different regions of origin: Mexico, Puerto Rico, Rest of South and Central America, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania, Canada and the Rest of the World. First, the regional distribution of these eight groups at the 1970 and 1980 censuses are examined. Next, the spatial redistribution of the foreign-born population and its changes over time are studied...." This paper was originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

World and regional labour force trends and prospects

Changes in fertility during 1970-1985 will not have any effect on the composition of the world work force until 1985 because the people who will be of working age at that time have already been born. However, fertility for this period will directly influence the size of the age group 15-30 in the year 2000. Moreover, fertility trends for this period will have an indirect effect on participation of women in the labor force. The number of people in the labor force has proportionately followed total population. Just as total population is projected to increase in the single decade 1970-1980 by an amount equal to its size in 1750, so the labor force will increase by 360 million during the 1980's (its original size in 1750). By the end of the present century the world labor force may well number some 2,6000 million, reaching 3,000 million by the year 2010; 4,000 million by 2030; 5,000 million by 2070; and stabilizing at about 5,200 million by the end of the 21st century. There will be great regional variations. Increases will range from 20-35% in Europe and the U.S.S.R. to 100-120% in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. For East Asia and North America the increases may amount to 60% by the year 2000 and 100% by 2050. In 1970 less developed regions had 2/3 the world's labor force; by 2000 they will have 3/4. In 1970 about 20% of the labor force in more developed regions were working in agriculture while in less developed regions 2/3 were so engaged. In other terms, in more developed regions 10 farmers supported 108 persons while in less developed regions 10 farmers supported only 38. According to Food and Agriculture Organization projections, by 2000 only 3.5% of the labor force in developed regions and 43.5% in less developed regions will be in agriculture. Differences in gross national product between regions is striking. In 1970 the less developed regions contained 70% of world population, 67% of the world labor force, 87% of the world agricultural labor, and produced 15% of its wealth. There are also sharp contrasts in participation in the labor force. In less developed countries more youths and older persons are in the labor force while in developed countries more women work. By the year 2000 female activity rates in more developed regions will increase for ages 20-64 and decrease for those under 20 and over 64. This will raise female participation in the labor force to 35%. In less developed regions female participation is expected to decline. The proportion of young workers is expected to increase in less developed and decline in more developed regions; the same will be true for older workers. The dependency burden will be concentrated among the young in less developed nations; in more devel oped regions there will be larger numbers of older dependents.     

Mexico-United States labor migration flows

"International migration from Mexico to the United Sates is viewed very differently depending on from which side of the border this phenomenon is observed and evaluated....[It is] imperative to begin a process of ?demythifying' migration as a necessary and sufficient condition that would allow both countries to come together within the context of bilateral relations and find ways to act jointly to address the impacts of the issue. Such a demythifying effort must begin with scientific research which can help develop a diagnosis of the costs and benefits that labor migration from Mexico to the United States brings to the two countries."     

Inside the Sending State: The Politics of Mexican Emigration Control1

The social science of international migration has generally ignored labor emigration control policies. In the critical case of Mexico, however, the central government consistently tried to control the volume, duration, skills, and geographic origin of emigrants from 1900 to the early 1970s. A neopluralist approach to policy development and implementation shows that the failure of emigration control and the current abandonment of serious emigration restrictions are explained by a combination of external constraints, imposed by a highly asymmetrical interdependence with the United States, and internal constraints, imposed by actors within the balkanized Mexican state who recurrently undermined federal emigration policy through contradictory local practices.     

International adoptions: the quiet migration

This study is concerned with the adoption of foreign children by persons in developed countries since World War II. Data from the United States and Sweden are used to illustrate the changes in countries of origin that have occurred over time. "In the 1940s most foreign children who were adopted came from Europe. During the next two decades a shift to adopting from Asia occurred, and in the 1970s Latin America became a major source area." The contribution of foreign adoption to international migration flows is considered.     

Recent trends in Hispanic immigration to the United States

Recent patterns of Hispanic immigration to the United States are examined using data from the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. "From 1960 to 1978 Hispanic immigration increased significantly, reflecting the general acceleration in total immigration to the United States. Demographic trends reveal that Hispanic immigrants are increasingly working-age women. Their occupation composition is primarily blue collar, with operatives emerging as the predominant job category during the 1970s." The authors note that these immigrants settle primarily in a small number of urban centers of Hispanic population and culture in the United States, and thus the effects of immigration will be concentrated on the low-skill segment of particular urban labor markets that already contain large numbers of Hispanic workers.     

Variations in Fertility and Earning Patterns among Immigrants in the United States, 1970–1980: Assimilation or Disruption?*

"This paper examines the assimilation of immigrants in familial and economic fields.... Specific objectives are as follows: (1) to describe fertility and earning patterns among immigrants to the United States in 1970-1980, from several countries of origin, and (2) to describe some effects of assimilation, human capital, and the dual labor market perspectives on immigrant earnings." Findings vary in both fertility and economic categories for migrants depending on whether they are from developed or developing countries. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Economic integration and labor flows: stage migration in farm labor markets in Mexico and the United States

"This article examines the probable effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on migration from Mexico to the United States, disputing the view that expansion of jobs in Mexico could rapidly reduce undocumented migration. To the extent that NAFTA causes Mexican export agriculture to expand, migration to the United States will increase rather than decrease in the short run. Data collected in both California and the Mexican State of Baja California show that indigenous migrants from southern Mexico typically first undertake internal migration, which lowers the costs and risks of U.S. migration. Two features of employment in export agriculture were found to be specially significant in lowering the costs of U.S. migration: first, working in export agriculture exposes migrants to more diverse social networks and information about U.S. migration; second, agro-export employment in northern Mexico provides stable employment, albeit low-wage employment, for some members of the family close to the border (especially women and children) while allowing other members of the family to assume the risks of U.S. migration."     

Does Europe need immigrants? Population and work force projections

European countries defined as all Northern and Western Europe including the former East Germany had a population of 498.4 million in 1990. In 1990 Western Europe had 374.4 million people. The European Community (EC) makes u 92% of the total population. Projections forecast a peak of the EC population (excluding the former East Germany) in 2005 at 334.2 million compared with 327 million in 1989, then declining to 332.5 million in 2010, 329.0 million min 2015 and 324.5 million in 2020. In Europe outside the East, the 20-24 year old work force entrance age group will drop from 29,860,000 in 1990 to 26,400,000 in 1005 and 23,480,000 in 2000: decreasing by 6,380,000 or 21.3%. Fertility rose by 22% in Sweden between 1985 and 1990, the rise of negligible in France and Belgium, but 2% in the UK and Switzerland, 4% in the Netherlands, 13% in Norway, 16% in Denmark, and even 6% in Germany and Luxembourg. The Ec labor force was 145 million in 1990 (excluding East Germany); it is projected to peak at 146.9 million in 2000, decline slowly until 2010 and decline faster up to 2025 with the steepest decline occurring in Germany and Italy. Unemployment rates would change from the 1990 estimate of 15.7 million to 15.5 million in 1995. Net migration into the 12 EC countries was on average -4,800 from 1965 to 1969; 357,000 from 1970 to 1974; 164,400 from 1980 to 1984; and 533,000/year from 1985 to 1989 as a result of the rise of asylum applicants and migration of ethnic Germans into Germany. Increased immigration is not needed to satisfy work force shortages for the next 10-20 years in Western Europe or in the EC. Other issues addressed are the economic activity forecast, the hidden labor supply, skill shortages, Eastern Europe, and teenage shortage. High-level manpower movements, immigration of asylum seekers, and illegal immigration will continue, but in the long run the conditions of employment and welfare support have to be improved for the women of Europe.     

Aliens in irregular status in the United States: a review of their numbers,characteristics, and role in the U.S. labor market

A general review of international migration to the United States is first presented. The analysis then focuses on aliens in irregular status in the United States, including the size of the illegal alien population, the intention of migrants to stay or to return, migrant characteristics, and the role of migrants in the U.S. labor market. The main concern of the paper is with illegal migration from Mexico. (summary in FRE, SPA)     

Migration and international relations: cooperation and control in the European Community

"In this article I have developed a political-economic framework for understanding international migration in postwar Europe and the United States." The author begins by reviewing four theories of international relations and gives a short critique of their main assumptions. He "finds that international migration reveals a contradiction between the main economic purpose of the postwar international order--to promote exchange--and the national perquisites of sovereignty and citizenship."