Adolescent sexuality in Asia: new focus for population policy

As the age at marriage continues to rise in East and Southeast Asia, the fertility behavior of unmarried teenagers is receiving more attention from population policymakers. In addition to fertility reduction through family planning, Asian societies today consider population planning strategies in relation to national needs and social goals, including such matters as the population's growth rate, age structure, educational quality and skills. The number of single youth in Asia is growing much more rapidly than the total youth population. By the year 2010, for example, India is projected to have nearly 70 million single teenagers, aged 15-19, 188% more than in 1980. In many developing countries today, such as the Philippines and Korea, the rising age at marriage has combined with rapid urbanization, improved status for women, and more educational opportunity to alter both the behavioral norms of young people and the traditional means of social control over youth. Studies of contemporary adolescent sexuality have been conducted in 4 Asian countries. In the Philippines an overt independent youth homosexual culture was found to exist in urban and to some extent rural areas. In Thailand research revealed little conservative resistance to family planning or to contraceptives for young unmarried people. Surveys in Taiwan indicate that behavior related to dating and choice of spouse has become more liberal, and a survey in Hong Kong revealed a higher level of premarital sex and use of prostitutes among Chinese men than expected. Population policy perspectives that need to be considered in these changing times include: 1) issues of access to family planning services by unmarried people below the legal age of maturity; 2) the development of social institutions, such as exist in Thailand and the Philippines, to guide adolescents' behavior; 3) more extensive study of adolescent sexuality; 4) establishment of the scope of family policy.     

Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia

Although 10 countries and two of China’s special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia’s total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate. These conclusions are then buttressed for each country by the findings of anthropological demographic research programs in which the authors were involved. The predictions are that all three countries will attain a total fertility rate of 2.1 within the next 30 years and that the UN2000 Revision of the medium population projection is plausible in that regard. However, the authors part company with the UN projection in their assessment that the nature of these societies means that they will all subsequently fall to still lower fertility levels.     

On allocating resources for fertility reduction in developing countries

Summary Substantial resources are currently being devoted in attempts to reduce fertility in developing countries. Can their allocation be made more efficient, i.e. more effective per unit of investment? This is an exploratory attempt to apply benefit-cost analysis to various realistic interventions, as judged by knowledgeable experts in the absence of sound empirical information on such impacts. (Such judgements appear to represent essentially the same sort of judgements as are made by policy-makers in the field). The paper concentrates on the methods by which several such analyses are made and illustrates the difficulties and problems encountered, but it also presents certain findings and conclusions of substance that show what results can be derived.     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

Prospects for fertility reduction and projections for future population growth in Kenya

In 1979 Kenya's annual rate of natural population growth was 3.8%. Data from the1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey indicate that significant decreases in fertility levels were experienced during the 1980s. Factors associated with conditions supportive of high fertility in Kenya are discussed, and progress toward attaining significant fertility reduction thresholds during the 1980s is assessed. Findings from recent fertility surveys are presented, and 1969–1989 national level family planning data are evaluated. Four population projections for 1985–2025 are presented and analyzed. One projection is based on official government growth targets; two are based on estimates provided by the United Nations and the Population Reference Bureau, and a fourth projection is based on the assumption that Kenya will attain an annual natural population growth rate of less than 1% by the year 2025. Each projection assumes that fertility declines will be experienced. Kenya's prospects for reducing the annual population growth rate to 1% within the next sixty years and a cost-sharing development policy are addressed briefly in the concluding section. Recent data suggest that Kenya will probably not complete the demographic transition before the year 2050, but Kenya should continue to move through the transition stage.     

The economic commission for Asia and the Far East program to assist fertility control

Demography - In conclusion, the ECAFE program to assist fertility control is vigorous and expanding. For demographers, this program, and especially the meetings of the technical groups, should have...     

Changes in fertility patterns can improve child survival in Southeast Asia

This analysis of 1988 Philippine Demographic Survey data provides information on the direct and indirect effects of several major determinants of childhood mortality in the Philippines. Data are compared to rates in Indonesia and Thailand. The odds of infant mortality in the Philippines are reduced by 39% by spacing children more than two years apart. This finding is significant because infant mortality rates have not declined over the past 20 years. Child survival is related to the number of children in the family, the spacing of the children, the mother's age and education, and the risks of malnutrition and infection. Directs effects on child survival are related to infant survival status of the preceding child and the length of the preceding birth interval, while key indirect or background variables are maternal age and education, birth order, and place of residence. The two-stage causation model is tested with data on 13,716 ever married women aged 15-49 years and 20,015 index children born between January 1977 and February 1987. Results in the Philippine confirm that maternal age, birth order, mortality of the previous child, and maternal education are directly related to birth interval, while mortality of the previous child, birth order, and maternal educational status are directly related to infant mortality. Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines all show similar explanatory factors that directly influence infant mortality. The survival status of the preceding child is the most important predictor in all three countries and is particularly strong in Thailand. This factor acts through the limited time interval for rejuvenation of mother's body, nutritional deficiencies, and transmission of infectious disease among siblings. The conclusion is that poor environmental conditions increase vulnerability to illness and death. There are 133% greater odds of having a short birth interval among young urban women than among older rural women. There is a 29% increase in odds for second parity births compared to third or higher order parities. Maternal education is a strong predictor of infant survival only in the Philippines and Indonesia. Adolescent pregnancy is a risk only in Indonesia. Socioeconomic factors are not as important as birth interval, birth order, and maternal education in determining survival status.     

Economic fortunes, ethnic divides, and marriage and fertility in Central Asia: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan compared

Declining marriage and fertility rates following the collapse of state socialism have been the subject of numerous studies in Central and Eastern Europe. More recent literature has focused on marriage and fertility dynamics in the period of post-crisis political stabilization and economic growth. However, relatively little research on marriage and fertility has dealt with the Central Asian part of the post-socialist world. We use survey and published data from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two multiethnic countries with differing paths of post-crisis recovery, to examine overall and ethnic-specific trends in entry into marriage and fertility. We find that in both countries rates of entry into marriage continued to decline throughout post-crisis years. By contrast, fertility rose, and this rise was greater in the more prosperous Kazakhstan. However, we also detect considerable ethnic variations in fertility trends which we situate within the ethnopolitical and ethnodemographic contexts of both countries.     

政府管理中的公共政策分析--人口政策知识应用层面的探讨

长久以来,人口研究在人口政策的制定方面的应用情形并不十分理想.公共政策的制定需以各类知识为基础.政策分析的本质是理智思考与社会互动的结果,科学实证与价值规范相存,以及理论与专业并重.本文试图以公共政策分析为线索,介绍政策知识应用的概念、类型及相关理论,进而提出人口政策知识应用的建议,期望人口学界和政府在人口政策制定过程中能加强合作,提升人口政策的质量.     

Adolescent fertility: worldwide concerns

There is growing concern over the adverse health, social, economic, and demographic effects of adolescent fertility. Morbidity and mortality rates ar significantly higher for teenage mothers and their infants, and early initiation of childbearing generally means truncated education, lower future family income, and larger completed family size. Adolescent fertility rates, which largely reflect marriage patterns, range from 4/1000 in Mauritania; in sub-Saharan Africa, virtually all rates are over 100. In most countries, adolescent fertility rates are declining due to rising age at marriage, increased educational and economic opportunities for young women, changes in social customs, increased use of contraception, and access to abortion. However, even if fertility rates were to decline dramatically among adolescent women in developing countries, their sheer numbers imply that their fertility will have a major impact on world population growth in the years ahead. The number of women in the world ages 15-19 years is expected to increase from 245 million in 1985 to over 320 million in the years 2020; 82% of these women live in developing countries. As a result of more and earlier premarital sexual activity, fostered by the lengthening gap between puberty and marriage, diminished parental and social controls, and increasing peer and media pressure to be sexually active, abortion and out-of-wedlock childbearing are increasing among teenagers in many developed and rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Laws and policies regarding sex education in the schools and access to family planning services by adolescents can either inhibit or support efforts to reduce adolescent fertility. Since contraceptive use is often sporadic and ineffective among adolescents, family planning services are crucial. Such programs should aim to reduce adolescents' dependence on abortion through preventive measures and increase awareness of the benefits of delayed sexual activity. Similarly, sex education should seek to provide a basis for intelligent, informed decision making. Programs tailored to reach teenagers in schools, recreational centers, and the workplace have particular potential.     

Some observations on the economic framework for fertility analysis

Abstract The economic framework for fertility analysis, first expounded in detail by Gary S. Becker(1), has attracted considerable attention among demographers. While some writers have enthusiastically endorsed the model, others have rejected it outright(3). A few attempts have also recently been made by some writers to modify or refine some of the concepts employed, and/or to change the modes of treatment of some of the factors in the original model. Unfortunately, several major objections levelled against the model still remain. It also remains to be examined whether the criticisms can be met without violating the principles and strategies espoused by economists. I believe (1) that most of the objections advanced against the model can be met by suitably modifying it, and (2) that the required modifications can be effected by employing strategies and conceptual schemes similar to those used in the demand analysis of consumer behaviour. The objective of this paper is to expound this belief. There is a strong possibility that after modification a healthy new theory will emerge which may prove useful in guiding research, as well as help to bring together different empirical findings in the literature, or to serve as a 'binder' for the theoretical speculations advanced by many research workers.     

Frustrated fertility: a population paradox

This Bulletin examines the causes of subfecundity -- the diminished ability to reproduce -- and its effect today and in the past on the fertility, or actual reproductive performance, of individuals and, hence, populations. By definition, all real populations are subfecund since all experience some degree of involuntary biological factors affecting coitus, conception, or the ability to carry a conceptus to live birth which reduces their fecundity below the estimated biological population maximum of 15 children per woman. Affecting both men and women, these factors fall into 5 categories: genetic factors such as blood group incompatibilities and inherited sickle cell anemia or diabetes; psychopathology, including psychic stress and behavioral disorders (e.g., drug and alcohol abuse); infectious diseases such as gonorrhea, malaria, tuberculosis, and postabortion infection; malnutrrition, including the chronic undernutrition of the 3rd World and the overnutrition of developed societies; and hazards posed by increasing amounts of radiation and toxic chemicals in the environment. Reducing subfecundity requires improved living conditions, avoidance of or protection from known hazards, and adoption of medical advances which now can help 40 to 60% of subfecund couples. But even in the U.S. fertility would certainly rise among the 15% of couples now estimated to be involuntarily childless and the 10% who have fewer children than they want, and among disadvantaged groups, and teenagers.     

Seasonality of fertility: New evidence

This paper presents evidence that the seasonal pattern of American fertility applies to nonwhites as well as whites. The patterns are also changing in the same way over time: the summer trough in births is shrinking in magnitude, and the spread of airconditioning, reducing the heat of summer, can explain this shrinkage. The summer hypothesis is further buttressed by evidence, for the total population, that summer temperature extremes can explain a significant portion of the variation around the seasonal trend, in both the North and South. These temperature-induced variations appear to be offset within seven months of their occurrence.This research was supported in part by a grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. Dennis Sullivan made a number of valuable critical comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Valuable research assistance was provided by Amy Powell and Robert Schoeni.     

Religion and fertility: A replication

Jones and Westoff (1979) reported a study offertility trends among white women in intact first marriages. They found that the fertility of white Catholic and non-Catholic wives was converging. The differential had all but disappeared, as had the differential by frequency of communion among Catholic wives. We replicated their study using data from the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth. We found that the fertility of the two religious groups was indeed converging, but the Catholic-non-Catholic differential was larger than that found by Jones and Westoff—how much larger depends on what measure is used. Moreover, we found that the differential by frequency of communion among Catholic wives was not converging. Possible explanations of the apparent differences in the findings are discussed.     

Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958-1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967-1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959-1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.     

Aboriginal fertility: Trends and prospects

Estimates of Aboriginal fertility compiled from an analysis of 1981 and 1986 Census data on children ever borne by Aboriginal women reveal age-specific fertility rates slightly higher than those of other Australian women at ages above 25, but very much higher rates for younger women. The result is a total fertility ratio more than 50 per cent higher than in the total Australian population, with no more than slight variation between States and Territories. A differential analysis using standardized indices shows considerable differences in levels of fertility of categories of young Aboriginal women classified by education, labour force status and income, and also differences between urban and rural areas. Analysis of prospects for Aboriginal fertility levels confirms the likelihood of continuation in the downward drift in levels of fertility that has been established during the past decade. Comparison of the estimates with another recent set of estimates obtained using the own-children method shows broad conformity in levels of total fertility ratios over time, except in the most recent period, the mid-1980s. Nevertheless, the own-children estimates distort the recent trend and also the age distribution of Aboriginal fertility.