The organization of the one percent National Sample Survey of Fertility and its findings]

In September of 1982, a national sample survey of fertility was conducted. A total of 70,000 professional personnel in family planning and manpower in related fields were engaged in this survey. They conducted a comprehensive survey at 815 sample points in 28 different provinces, cities, and autonomous regions all over the country. Their findings can be summarized as follows: (1) A more advanced understanding of the rules of China's population reproduction, (2) supplemental information on births and marital status which was not collected fully in the national census, (3) scientific analysis of the results in family planning during the past 10 or more years, and indication of a correct way for scientific management in family planning work from now on, and (4) a large number of professsional cadres were trained and developed in this sample survey to function effectively in the field of family planning in the future.     

Statistical Communique on National Education Development in 2009 （Excerpt）

Compulsory Education
By the end of 2009, 3, 052 counties （cities/districts） （including 207 other administrative districts at county level） had passed the inspections on the accomplishment of generally popularizing the Nine-Year Compulsory Education and generally eliminating illiteracy among young and middle-aged people. The accomplishment rate for the two goals reached 99.5% of all the counties across China. And the population coverage rate reached 99.7%.     

The present task of family planning as suggested by the findings of the National Sample Survey of Fertility]

Results from the 1982 census show great progress has been made in the field of family planning because of close cooperation between the people and the government. Under the influence of the high birth rate in the 1950s and 1960s, a large number of youths are reaching the age for marriage each year, and they are bringing heavy pressure on the population growth. As a result of this situation, family planning work is still urgently needed. A great difference exists between cities and rural areas in family planning work. Economic conditions, cultural and educational levels, occupational characteristics, living environments, and concepts of population growth have contributed to this difference. Henceforth, special emphasis should be placed on family planning work in rural areas, so that the large scale population groth in the countryside may be brought under control. In areas of scientific management, propaganda and education, and technical measures for family planning, modern and and progressive methods should be used in order to reach the national goal of controlling population growth.     

生育政策调整对生育意愿影响研究——基于2015年追踪调查数据的发现

文章利用2015年生育意愿追踪调查数据,分析"单独两孩"政策出台后我国居民的生育意愿变化情况,单独一孩家庭打算生育二孩的比例为39.5%,普通一孩家庭为32.2%,较以前有所下降.前续调查对于是否生育二孩表示"说不好"的人群中,追踪调查显示大约60%倾向于不打算生育,政策目标人群由"打算生"到"不打算生"是生育意愿转变的主要趋势,经济压力大是影响生育二孩的首要原因,政策敏感人群所占比重在地区间存在差异,政策落地对优生筛查、孕产服务、幼教等方面提出更高要求,需要做好各项公共政策衔接,确保实施效果.     

Statistical Communique on National Economic and Social Development in 2003

Following are main excerpts of the StatisticalCommunique onDevelopment inNational Economic and Social2003 released by the NationalBureau of Statistics on February 26, 2004. -- Editor     

Bridewealth and Birth Control: Low Fertility in the Indonesian Archipelago, 1500–1900

Before the onset of the present demographic transition, population growth in Indonesia had reached unprecedentedly high levels. This article demonstrates that such high levels were a recent phenomenon. Prior to 1900 rates of natural population increase were low to very low in most areas in Indonesia. This runs counter to expectations based on Hajnal's “Eastern marriage pattern,” which could imply high growth levels in extended family areas, such as most Indonesian regions outside Java in the past. Usually, the low population growth rates in Southeast Asia are attributed to high mortality owing to high levels of violent conflict. It is argued that other factors contributing to such high levels of mortality should receive more attention. In this article it is also argued that low fertility rates, too, played a role in generating low rates of natural increase. The article discusses the influence of marriage patterns, household structure, methods of birth control, adoption, and slavery on fertility.     

Communique on China Health Care Development Statistics in 2011(Excerpt)

Health Care Resources Total Number of Medical and Health Institutions At the end of 2011,the number of medical and health institutions totaled 954,389,an increase of 17,462 compared with that of last year.Of which,there were 21,979 hospitals,918,003 grassroots healthcare institutions and 11,926 specialized public health institutions.Compared with last year,the number of hospital increased by 1,061,that of grassroots healthcare institutions increased by 16,294;and that of specialized public health institutions increased by 91(see Table 1). Among the hospitals,13,542 were public hospitals and 8,437 were private hospitals.Categorized by classes,there were 1,399 first-class hospitals "of which,881 were upper first-class hospitals",6,468 second-class hospitals,5,636 third- class hospitals and 8,476 unclassified hospitals.Categorized by the number of beds a hospital possessed,there were 13,136     

论青年女性流动人口初育间隔与人口控制——来自厦门流动人口家庭问卷调查的启示

青年女性流动人口实际生育行为的控制对于人口规模与结构的控制,起着至关重要的作用。而生育时间的选择作为影响流动人口生育实践的一个重要因素,体现在对各孩次生育间隔的控制上。本文在描述分析的基础上,应用Cox比例风险模型,主要对厦门市青年女性流动人口初育间隔的影响因素进行估计和检验,并在总结分析的基础上对流动人口控制问题提出几点对策思考。     

甘肃省居民生育意愿与生育目的的调查研究

文章利用2007年调查数据,分析研究了甘肃省居民的生育意愿和生育目的。调查发现．随着经济的发展和社会的进步,甘肃省居民的意愿生育数量不断减少,已经略低于更替生育水平,男孩偏好的意愿生育性别倾向仍然广泛存在,期望生育一儿一女是大部分甘肃居民最为普遍的愿望,意愿妇女初育年龄不断推迟．生育目的呈现出多元化趋势,但养老送终、传宗接代仍是目前最重要的生育目的。     

Fertility Level,Sex Preference and Sex Ratio at Birth

Measures for Slianghai Residence PeiTnit （Hereinafter referred tO as     

生育水平、性别偏好和出生性别比——兼论出生性别比的监测方法

本研究以马-冯-陈模型为定性基础,认为一定人口的出生性别比并非固定不变,而是受到生育水平的影响。当无性别偏好时,生育水平主要通过改变不同孩次占出生人口比例的方式影响出生性别比;当有性别偏好时,生育水平既影响不同孩次占总出生人口的比例,又影响不同孩次的出生性别比,从而对总出生性别比产生影响。对于没有性别偏好和性别选择行为的人口,生育水平变化是引起出生性别比波动的主要原因。有性别选择行为时,生育水平变化对出生性别比的影响较小,性别选择行为是出生性别比异常的主要原因。监测以"曾生子女孩次和性别次序"为条件划分的人群,可以有效而便捷地判断出生性别比变化趋势。     

山东省20世纪90年代生育水平估算与生育力差异分析

文章在对新中国成立以来山东省生育水平进行回顾性分析的基础上,利用统计数据对其20世纪90年代总和生育率进行了估算,估算结果显示,自90年代后半期起,山东省就进入总和生育率低于1.5或保持在1.5左右的低生育水平阶段。并利用COX回归分析方法,以第四、第五次人口普查数据为基础,以同龄妇女孩次生育发生比为因变量,对两次人口普查年份的生育力差异进行了分析,认为城市化及经济和社会发展等因素在降低生育水平方面有着不容忽视的作用。     

重新认识中国人口出生性别比失调与低生育水平的代价问题

迄今为止,一些涉及中国人口出生性别比问题的国内外相关文献,几乎都存在着涉及基本概念与理论方面的这样或那样问题。文章针对这些问题,不仅对出生性别比的基本概念、数理检测方法等做了进一步阐述与再认识,而且对出生性别比失调与近一个时期失调的初始时间做了界定。同时,对异常出生性别比的现状、变动态势进行了重新估计。指出在人为条件下的出生性别比失调,是导致20世纪80年代中后期以来生育水平下降的一个重要因素。     

The Relationship between Birth History and Current Fertility in Developing Countries

The aim of this research is to find a model of fertility in terms of ‘birth-history’ factors which is common to a diversity of developing countries. Data for nine WFS countries are analysed. The analysis is essentially a birth-interval life-table analysis with regression where factor effects are allowed to vary smoothly over time since previous birth. Strong evidence for a common model is found, with surprisingly similar patterns in the parameters emerging for each country. The main components of the model may be interpreted in terms of ‘tempo’ of previous reproduction, age-related infecundity, and birth-order-related fertility control.     

出生性别比变化对生育率的影响

本文应用孩次性别递进法,定义了达标生育率指标FRG和状态子空间及其基本运算规则;证明了历经概率“行列和”定理;分别导出了达标生育率对出生性别比和生育性别比的导数公式;给出了导数的计算方法和计算实例并对结果做了分析。     

生育政策调整对中国出生人口规模的影响——基于生育意愿与生育行为差异的视角

生育政策调整对中国出生人口规模的影响是本研究关注的主要问题。本文利用2013年中国家庭幸福感热点问题调查的原始数据,基于生育意愿与生育行为差异的视角,研究生育政策调整对中国出生人口规模可能产生的影响。研究发现:通过2011²013年的重复测量,中国目前意愿生育水平在1.86左右;育龄人群现行生育政策条件下的终身生育水平为1.59,生育政策完全放开后的终身生育水平也仅为1.68,都显著低于意愿生育水平;基于生育意愿与生育行为的差异,即使生育政策完全放开,中国20142013年的重复测量,中国目前意愿生育水平在1.86左右;育龄人群现行生育政策条件下的终身生育水平为1.59,生育政策完全放开后的终身生育水平也仅为1.68,都显著低于意愿生育水平;基于生育意愿与生育行为的差异,即使生育政策完全放开,中国2014²020年每年多出生人口规模也不超过324万。     

Fertility,gender preference,the Birth Planning Policy and life satisfaction in China

Using data from China Family Panel Studies 2010, we evaluate the role of the Birth Planning Policy (BPP) in altering decisions to have another child by birth parity, and the relationship of life satisfaction with the gender structure of the children of Chinese residents. We find strong positive effects of the BPP on the decision of having an additional child for Chinese residents, particularly if the previous children were girls. In spite of strong son preference in fertility behaviour, residents whose children are all daughters are found to be more satisfied with their lives than with other gender structures. The empirical findings support the view that daughters are more helpful in providing assistance to parents and in mitigating family conflicts hence increasing life satisfaction, while son preferences may be pursued reasons of lineage and hence do not result in more satisfied lives. We also find evidence that the BPP penalty might be a reason why having more sons could reduce life satisfaction.