阿拉伯国家社会转型中经济发展面临的挑战

能源在阿拉伯世界经济社会发展中具有举足轻重的地位和作用,影响并形成了阿拉伯国家独特的经济社会结构和发展道路。然而,阿拉伯世界以能源为主的社会经济发展模式凸显了资源导向增长的经典困境,阿拉伯产油国经济和社会发展高度依赖石油和天然气,工业和经济结构单一,经济多元化水平低下。石油财富未能从根本上改变阿拉伯国家社会经济发展成就的有限性,社会经济发展滞后,贫困、失业和社会不公三大问题,凸显了阿拉伯世界以能源为主的社会经济发展模式的弊端和深层危机。“阿拉伯之春”对社会经济包容性增长的强烈要求,对以能源为主的阿拉伯国家社会经济发展模式提出了严重挑战。阿拉伯世界的社会稳定将是一个长期和艰难的过程,最终取决于阿拉伯国家的社会经济发展水平。     

Determinants of the Egyptian labour migration

The objective is to summarize the pattern of Egyptian migration to Arab oil-producing countries (AOPC), to review some factors that are important determinants of labor movement based on theory, and to empirically model the migration rate to AOPC and to Saudi Arabia. Factors are differentiated as to their relative importance. Push factors are the low wages, high inflation rate, and high population density in Egypt; pull factors are higher wages. It is predicted that an increase in income from destination countries has a significant positive impact on the migration rate. An increase in population density stimulates migration. An increase in inflation acts to increase out-migration with a 2-year lag, which accommodates departure preparation. Egypt's experience with labor migration is described for the pre-oil boom, and the post-oil boom. Several estimates of labor migration are given. Government policy toward migration is positive. Theory postulates migration to be determined by differences in the availability of labor, labor rewards between destination and origin, and the cost of migration. In the empirical model, push factors are population density, the current inflation rate, and the ratio of income/capita in AOPC to Egypt. The results indicate that the ratio of income/capita had a strong pull impact and population density had a strong push impact. The inflation rate has a positive impact with a lag estimated at 2 years. Prior to the Camp David Accord, there was a significant decrease in the number of Egyptian migrants due to political tension. The findings support the classical theory of factor mobility. The consequences of migration on the Egyptian economy have been adverse. Future models should disaggregate data because chronic shortages exist in some parts of the labor market. Manpower needs assessment would be helpful for policy makers.     

中产阶级与埃及政局变化

本文认为,2011年埃及变局主要归因于中产阶级的民生问题。萨达特—穆巴拉克的政策以及各种外力导致了埃及社会结构的扭曲,引发中产阶级的政治地位下降、经济能力减弱、生活困难加剧,使中产阶级由社会的引领者变为政权的抗争者,最终颠覆了穆巴拉克政权。本文分析了中产阶级与这一社会变化之间的逻辑关系后强调,2011年埃及变局将有利于中产阶级的重新崛起与社会结构的合理发展。     

Psychology in the Arab World: Past, Present, and Future

In this article, we present a broad-based view of psychology in the Arab countries. We begin by casting light on the relevant contributions by ancient Arab scholars in the Middle Ages. Given that systematic scientific investigation of this legacy has been minuscule, we argue that in the future, scholars seeking to provide a more balanced and comprehensive history of Arab psychology should reanalyze these works. We point out that in the early decades of the modern twentieth century, Western psychology was introduced in the Arab countries, especially in Egypt—the gateway through which such psychology was introduced and practiced. By the early 1960s, a number of universities had been established in some Arab countries, and Egyptian academicians, including psychologists, were invited to perform teaching, research, and administration tasks. Their legacy was a discipline bearing most of the strengths and weaknesses of Egyptian psychology, although in spite of such commonalties, there exist also some interesting differences characterizing psychology in the various Arab countries. The final section of the article summarizes some key aspects endemic to psychology in the Arab countries.     

埃及过渡政府的外交政策之调整

埃及过渡政府成立以来,已在外交政策方面做出多方面调整:对中东和周边的以色列、伊朗、尼罗河流域国家等,过渡政府的外交政策调整以转向和改变为主,且调整幅度较大;对以美国为首的欧美大国,采取了延续基础上的调整;对包括中国在内的传统友好国家,则继续维持与深化与这些国家的关系.过渡政府对外交政策作出调整的原因主要包括:国内群众的诉求、重塑阿拉伯世界的领导形象以及革命后埃及“本土化”意识的兴起.埃及在外交方面的调整涉及美国、伊朗、以色列、海湾国家、非洲各国等,无疑对地区安全与合作产生了重要影响.     

Emigration dynamics in the Arab region. IOM / UNFPA workshop, 7-8 October 1996, Geneva,Switzerland

This paper describes the four research monographs on emigration that were presented at the December 1995 Regional Workshop in the Arab Region. The workshop was an exchange of views and discussion of policy implications of emigration. Monographs were presented by Dr. Mayar Farrag on emigration in Egypt, Professor Nadji Safir on migration in the Maghreb, Dr. Setenay Shami on emigration dynamics in Jordan, and Dr. Lynn Evans on behalf of Dr. Ivy Papps on migration in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Dr. Farrag identified three periods of migration. During the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, migrants were officially encouraged by Egypt to fill education positions. During the 1970s, many migrants left for the oil-producing countries on a temporary basis. Since the mid-1980s, the influences on Egyptian migration have been the economic recession and oil prices in the Gulf states, the completion of infrastructure projects in most Gulf states, and the replacement of foreign labor with nationals. Dr. Farrag recommended improving the migrants' skills in English and technology in order to maintain a dominant flow of temporary migrants to the Gulf region. Professor Safir reported that persons from the Maghreb region (Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco) migrated to France before independence and subsequently to West Germany and the Benelux countries. Algeria had the highest migration potential, and Morocco had the highest migration. Morocco had established networks in destination countries, high population growth rates, and high unemployment. Maghreb countries are receiving migrants from the south. Professor Safir recommended regional integration. Dr. Shami separated step migration from stepwise migration, which complicates push-pull theories. Dr. Papps argued that use of foreign labor may not be the best option for development, and that sending countries should be more aware of skill needs in GCC countries.     

The Image of the City in Modern Arab Painting: Artists Recreate Their Own Cities

The subject of the city in Arab art, as far as I know, has never been studied by art critics and historians. This has apparently not happened because of the strong influence of western modernism and its theories. This article uncovers the importance of the city in early and later modern Arab painting. Examples from the late 1930s and 1940s reflect the less developed cities in terms of their social and structural aspects. This is very obvious in the two paintings by Said (Alexandria, Egyptian) and Nazar (Baghdad, Iraqi). The Arab paintings from the second half of the twentieth century present a different mode of expression as the political and social circumstances of Arab countries are reflected in them. Paintings from this period by Arab artists presenting images of their cities such as those of Haddad and Jabbour (Beirut, Lebanese), Idrees (Jeddah, Saudi), Shammout (Alled, Palestinian), Talib and Al‐Attar (Baghdad, Iraqis), and Alhamzah (Utopia, Jordanian), are very expressive and loaded with meaning. It appears that the relationship between the artist and the city is so intimate, that the artist’s life intersects with the city’s life. The paintings discussed show that the Arab artists’ cities in most cases are not realized as hoped so they tried alternative ones. The artist sees her/himself as a savior by criticizing the state of the beloved city calling for a better one. In this sense the image of the city becomes a representation of the painter’s own artistic reservoir as a form of offerings.     

The frustrated generation youth exclusion in Arab Mediterranean societies

In Arab Mediterranean countries (AMCs), insecurities and a lack of opportunities have continuously kept young people from becoming independent and being full, active, and integrated members of society; a process commonly referred to as social exclusion. This paper explores the driving factors of youth exclusion in Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia. It is argued that not only the extent but also the structure of social exclusion varies across countries. Based on the social exclusion framework developed by the UNDP [2011. Beyond Transition – Towards Inclusive Societies. Bratislava: United Nations Development Programme], we construct a social exclusion index that takes economic, social, and political factors into account. The results obtained indicate that the share of young people suffering from social exclusion is highest in Tunisia (46.7%), followed by Algeria (43.4%), Egypt (42.1%), and Lebanon (33.2%). In contrast to the prevailing assumptions on social exclusion, we find that economic exclusion does in fact play a minor role. The strongest driver of youth exclusion in all Arab Mediterranean countries is the exclusion from social and political life.     

New Patterns of Internal Migration in Emigrant‐Sending Communities: the Case of China

Despite the large number of migrants at both international and internal scales in developing countries, literature on building the links between the two migration processes is still lacking. Using survey data from China's Fujian Province, we elaborate a novel link between international and internal migration processes by examining the response of internal migration to international migration in the migrant origins. Our findings suggest that emigration of one individual initially deterred the internal migration of other family members. Yet, over time individuals from emigrant‐related households had an increasing propensity to migrate internally. During the internal migration process, emigrants’ family members received greater financial returns and had reached farther destinations than other internal migrants. Those emigrant‐related internal migrants with enhanced economic profiles would benefit their domestic destinations in a variety of ways. These benefits support a more optimistic view on the impact of international migration on the development of migrant‐sending countries.     

阿拉伯国家在巴以问题上的民族主义

阿拉伯国家在摆脱殖民压迫，建立独立国家后，国家主权意识不断加强，大多数阿拉伯国家在处理巴以问题时，逐渐把本国的国家利益放在了首位。二战后，阿拉伯国家在意识形态领域经历了从阿拉伯民族主义到国家民族主义的演变过程。这一过程也是阿拉伯国家承认以色列、与以色列和解的过程。没有阿拉伯国家在思想领域的这一变化，就不会有中东和平进程。     

Reframing the Discourse on Social Work in the Arab World: Considerations for the Accreditation of Social Work in the UAE

Drawing on the author's experience of teaching social work in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), this paper will interrogate the pervasive question, significant within academic circles and the wider public discourse, on the issue of values and how they are framed or not by their relevant cultural contexts. This is a critical period in the history of the development of social work in the UAE where the International Association of Schools of Social Work subjected the first professional social work education and training programme offered to the rigour of a review process. Currently most social work programmes are evaluated against Western social work accreditation frameworks and quality assurance processes. While this practice may be appropriate in certain contexts, in others, such as in the Arab world, a more authentic frame of reference is required. To this end, the frame of reference lies in the Islamic prophetic traditions and culture, uniquely characteristic of the Arab world in the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC). It not only provides the backdrop to the ideological context for practice and education but also for quality assurance purposes as in the case of accreditation. A quick perusal of global accreditations of social work programmes reveals intense scholarly debates about what should constitute a dynamic curricula, necessary resources, ideology, administrative needs, processes and structure of social work programmes. Given that all of these criteria satisfy the conditions for accreditation, there is still ample opportunity within the different socio-cultural contexts for variations in the curricula of social work programmes being offered universally.

There is little doubt, despite the recent debates on the accreditation processes, that the primary goal is to ensure quality programmes and competent preparation for social work practice. In this paper the author will argue that while subscribing to this academic rigour, a paradigm shift is imperative to understand what constitutes culturally sensitive social work education and training. This paper will demonstrate that the values and ethics rooted in the ideology of the Arab world should determine and influence academic and practice paradigms.     

论当前中东剧变的国内因素及其国际影响

从2010年12月17日突尼斯失业青年布瓦吉吉自焚开始,一场席卷突尼斯全国的政治变革大潮迅速蔓延至中东几乎所有阿拉伯国家。这一突如其来的变化,预示着更为复杂的政治变革进程已经开始。从目前情况来看,各国表面上貌似群龙无首、组织松散的街头抗议,实质都是围绕着"变革"这一主题展开,大量失业青年成为这一"变革"的主要参与力量,而网络新媒体则扮演了推波助澜的角色。变革、青年和网络是中东各国目前政治剧变的三个关键因素,进一步认清三者的互动关系及其作用和影响,不仅可以更好地了解中东当前的政治发展进程,也对维护我国的国家安全和社会稳定,有着十分重要的现实意义。     

阿拉伯经济的一体化

阿拉伯国家具有相似的政治和文化社会环境，其经济实现一体化的基础不亚于欧洲国家。阿拉伯国家在经济一体化发展道路上的机遇与挑战并存，在信息经济的背景之下，阿经济一体化有了更丰富的内涵和更广阔的发展空间。     

中东大规模动荡与我国的外交应对

中东剧变一年多以来,阿拉伯国家蒙受巨大冲击,引起了所有中东国家乃至国际社会的高度关注,而这首先与中东的重要位置有关.这次变局几乎波及所有阿拉伯国家,民众诉求涉及政治、经济、社会诸多方面.问题是长年积累下来的,2011年的动荡应是这种情绪的大爆发,虽会推动社会前进,但代价却是巨大的.叙利亚问题前景仍不明朗,目前只维持了脆弱的和平.中国以“不干涉内政”原则和“劝和促谈”的方针应对这次大动荡是正确的、主动的,不管外界有多少反对声音和暂时的不理解,都应坚定不移地走下去.     

阿拉伯国家转型及其走势

埃及军方推翻穆兄会政权,局势仍难以稳定;叙利亚化武危机化解,但政治解决步履艰难;巴、以重启和谈,取得突破仍困难重重;美、伊关系松动,伊核谈判取得阶段性成果;美国在中东地区的主导能力下降;阿拉伯国家转型之路漫长而艰难;伊斯兰势力崛起受挫。     

从《一千零一夜》看中世纪阿拉伯社会主流价值观

享誉世界文坛的中古时期的阿拉伯民间神话故事集《一千零一夜》,是一部反映中世纪阿拉伯社会最具代表性的惟一经典作品。其所反映的,是阿拉伯民族统一和民族精神的发展史,是了解和考察中世纪阿拉伯社会转型进程的一个缩影,是阿拉伯帝国处于上升发展并达到顶峰的时期,也是阿拉伯一伊斯兰文化走向繁荣并形成其主流价值观的历史过程。     

“泛阿拉伯主义”在美国媒体的“帝国”意象

20世纪上半叶,面对阿拉伯人的统一诉求,有相当一部分人通过美国媒体,结合西方世界对伊斯兰教的刻板印象,将“泛阿拉伯主义”附会到中世纪的“阿拉伯帝国”,进而视其为西方文明的对立面。纳赛尔掌权后,美国媒体出于对埃及亲苏外交的敌视,纷纷指责埃及政府试图仰仗苏联支持,建立“阿拉伯帝国”。随着埃及(阿联)与苏联之间矛盾的加剧,美国舆论界仍继续敌视纳赛尔的“泛阿拉伯主义”,认为纳赛尔建立“阿拉伯帝国”的“野心”虽然导致其与苏联的纷争,但仍是西方的威胁。美国人对纳赛尔的敌视,虽然伴有强烈的冷战心态,但他们频繁以“阿拉伯帝国”或“穆斯林帝国”的历史意象,比附纳赛尔的“泛阿拉伯主义”实践,实际上是对“东西对立”叙事模式的延续,反映出西方世界长久以来对“伊斯兰征服”的历史记忆,并连带着对中东地区整合倾向的担忧。     

The Impact of Ethnicity and Phase in Training on Israeli Social Work Students' Satisfaction with the Field Instruction

Students' evaluations of their satisfaction with their field instruction including their field instructors, agency, and learning opportunities have been the focus of earlier and more recent studies. However much less is known about students' satisfaction in non‐English speaking countries. Even rarer are studies on how satisfaction differs among diverse ethnic groups and phase of training. This study focuses on the impact of ethnicity (Jewish and Israeli Arabs), and phase of training (second or third years) on the satisfaction of Israeli social work students with their field instruction. Some 742 second and third year students reported their satisfaction on a self‐administered questionnaire. Third year students who had already completed two academic years of training were more satisfied with their field instruction than second year students. Arab students were significantly less satisfied with their field placement agencies. Second year Arab students were also less satisfied with their field instructors and their field instruction in general than second year Jewish students. The lower satisfaction might be true for other minority groups in Western countries and should be further investigated. We recommend increasing cultural sensitivity in the curriculum of social work education as well as preparatory workshops before the beginning of field practice.