Rural development and urban migration: can we keep them down on the farm?

This study tests the hypothesis that rural development projects and programs reduce rural-urban migration. The author presents various factors in the social theories of migration, including those relating to origin and destination, intervening obstacles such as distance, and personal factors. 3 economic models of migration are the human capital or cost-benefit approach, the expected income model, and the intersectoral linkage model. Empirical studies of migration indicate that: 1) rural areas with high rates of out-migration tend to have high population densities or high ratios of labor to arable land, 2) distance inhibits migration, 3) rural-urban migration is positively correlated with family income level, and 4) selectivity differences in socioeconomic status between migrants and nonmigrants often are grouped into development packages which might include irrigation, new varieties of seed, subsidized credit, increased extension, and improved marketing arrangements. The migration impacts of some of these efforts are described: 1) land reform usually is expected to slow rural out-migration because it normally increases labor utilization in rural areas, but this is a limited effect, 2) migration effects of the Green Revolution technology are mainly in rural-rural migration, and 3) agricultural mechanization may stimulate rural-urban migration in the long run. Development of rural social services migh have various effects on rural-urban migration. Better rural education, which improves the chances of urban employment, will stimulate rural-urban migration, while successful rural family planning programs will have a negative effect in the long run as there will be reduced population pressure on arable land. Better rural health services might reduce the incentive for rural-urban migration as well. It is suggested that governments reconsider policies which rely on rural development to curb rural-urban migration and alleviate problems of urban poverty and underemployment.     

Labor force participation and fertility: a study of married women in Bangladesh

Most researchers support the notion that a direct negative relationship exists between married women's labor force participation and fertility behavior, yet female employment shows no consistent, general relationship with declining fertility at individual and societal levels. Specific conditions under which employment lowers fertility are therefore explored for the case of Bangladesh. The economic, sociological, and world-system theoretical approaches to the relationship and empirical studies in developing countries including Bangladesh are reviewed. 1975-76 Bangladesh Fertility Survey data on births, deaths, nuptiality, and family planning knowledge and practice for 5772 currently married women of 6513 ever married women under 50 sampled are subjected to multivariate analysis for the study. Analysis revealed that women's modern and traditional occupation as well as higher and secondary education significantly lower their fertility, and that higher age, Islamic religion, use of modern contraceptives, and husband's occupation in transitional and modern sectors have significant positive effects on fertility. The correlation between higher fertility and contraceptive use may be due to women's delay in practicing family planning until reaching desired parity and/or high infant mortality driving women to cease practice in order to replace lost offspring. Future research should be conducted with larger samples and also consider occupations of both husbands and wives. Societal attitudes about women's education should be reformed in support of opening rural schools for women. With 90% of women residing in rural areas and women with traditional occupations having lower fertility, more traditional sector opportunities for women in cottage industry and agriculture production are also recommended, and would help balance skewed urban growth and hypertrophication of the tertiary sector. Finally, motivational efforts should be focused upon encouraging younger instead of older married couples to limit fertility.     

Socio-economic fertility theories and their relevance to population policy

A theory of fertility is necessary to assess the justification for family planning and to understand the effectiveness of the programs. 3 possibilities for uses of a theory of fertility are discussed: 1) assessment of population projections, 2) indications of what can be expected from family planning, and 3) assessment of population control projects. Birthrates are high, but fertility rates in developing countries are between 40% and 60% below the maximum possible. Social and cultural elements and economic incentives and constraints play a role in keeping the birthrates high. Economic development is frequently accompanied by a drop in fertility, but economic development implies other simultaneous changes which influence fertility rates. Gary Becker's fertility theory holds that with higher income people would purchase more children, the people behaving as they would in purchasing consumer durables. However, higher income groups frequently have fewer children. Becker says that higher income families want high-quality children who are more expensive. A pure economic theory does not explain all of the fertility variations; it is necessary to take account of the socioeconomic processes that result from economic development. Family planning policies that influence people's motivations should be developed.     

Demographic and socioeconomic determinants of female rural to urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa

Data from the 1986-90 Demographic and Health Surveys of Burundi, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda were used to examine the impact of fertility, child mortality, and socioeconomic and demographic factors on female rural-urban migration of six months or more duration. Several principles appear to direct the migration of high fertility women. High parity women are free from the male demands for more children. Rural areas lack basic amenities such as schools, health services, and modern housing. Additional children may strain family resources and require additional income from other sources. Husband and kin may have already moved. All data are nationally representative, with the exception of Uganda with an 80% sample. Women living in rural areas two years prior to the survey were included in the sample. Fertility and mortality data pertain to children aged under five years in the period two to seven years before the survey year. Multinomial logit analysis was based on an analytical model developed by Goldstein and Goldstein. High fertility was found to deter female migration to either urban or rural areas. Women, who had one surviving child aged under five years, were significantly less likely to move to urban areas only in Nigeria and Senegal and to other villages in Burundi compared to women without a recent birth. Women with two or more surviving children were significantly less likely (by 43-75%) to move to urban areas in five out of seven countries. Moves to rural areas were less likely by 36-61% in six out of eight countries. The evidence does not suggest that the reason for moves is to advance the children's material or physical well-being. The number of births, particularly in Kenya where fertility is very high in rural areas, acts as a deterrent to migration. Child mortality only constrains moves to urban areas. Unmarried women, single women, better educated women, and adults in their 20s are more likely to move to urban areas.     

The impact of international migration on fertility: an econometric population model

The authors develop an econometric model to examine the impact of migration on fertility in Greece in the period 1968-1986. In the model, the fertility equation is considered within a simultaneous equation system, and international migration is included as an explanatory factor of both fertility and per capita income. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

THE EFFECT OF HOUSE PRICE ON FERTILITY: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG

This article extends a standard Beckerian model of fertility behavior to formulate the effect of house price (HP) on fertility. The simple model predicts a negative effect of HP on the number of children for a representative household not only through the income effect but also through the compensated substitution effect. The prediction is confirmed by a cointegration analysis applied to the annual data at the aggregate level covering the period from 1971 to 2005 in Hong Kong. It is found that a 1% increase in HP is significantly related to a 0.45% decrease in total fertility rates (TFRs), which is robust in sensitivity tests with an alternative model specification and alternative measures of TFRs. This implies that high HP inflation can account for about 65% of the fertility decrease in Hong Kong in the past four decades. (JEL J13, J11, C32)     

Migratory movements and their effects on family structure: the Latin American case

The main causes of population mobility in Latin America have been 1) dissolution of the traditional rural societies, 2) expansion of the agro-industrial economy, and 3) consolidation of an urban economic and cultural model. Disparities in wages and exchange rates and inequality in development between different countries have led to emigration to countries at higher levels of economic development and to the industrialized Western countries. More recently, political instability and institutionalized violence in Central America have induced population movements to other countries in the region. 6 basic types of migration in Latin America are 1) seasonal migration of small farmers to urban areas or the rural areas in other countries, 2) migration by young rural people to cities or urban areas of other countries, 3) rural-urban and international migration by the whole family group, 4) international urban-urban migration by individuals or by the whole family group, 5) migration for family reunification, and 6) return migration. The predominant type of mobility has been from the countryside to the cities. Both men and women migrate, although the proportion of migrant women is increasing and women occasionally outnumber males. Migrant women generally find less skilled jobs which are less well paid. Migrant workers frequently have access only to less skilled and poorly paid jobs or enter the informal sector of the urban economy. The impact of migration on the structure and functioning of the family unit in the sending society is determined by the number, sex, and role of the family members who migrate. Other economic and social factors such as assistance received by the migrant, the work found, the level of income, and the specific characteristics of the receiving society determine the success of the venture, the capacity to some or all of the remaining family members. Family members who stay in the sending society must adjust their behavior in ways determined by the number, sex, and age of the family members concerned and the type of economic activities by the family. For the migrating family, settlement in the receiving society requires the development of new functions and specialized domestic activities by each of its members. Survival possibilities will be largely determined by assistance networks, the reorganization of the structure and functioning of the family group, and the adoption of new organizational patterns.     

Migration and fertility in Malaysia: a tale of two hypotheses

2 hypotheses that are prevalent in the migration and fertility literature, are tested using data from the 1966-67 West Malaysian Family Survey. Particular attention is paid to conceptual and methodological frameworks of research and study of sociodemographic trends in Malaysia. Noting that confusion exists in previous studies of migration and fertility, especially in regards to comparing migrants and nonmigrants with residence background and migration experience, the 2 hypotheses are discussed: 1) the assimilation hypothesis in which a) place of childrearing (origin) is an important influence on fertility behavior (e.g. geographical differentials of fertility norms, family size preference), b) residence during childbearing period (destination) is a residential status that may be related to fertility (e.g. values, expectation, economic opportunities, contraceptive availability), and c) the assimilitation process can be expressed as a weighted combination of specific influences of either place of childrearing or childbearing; 2) the migration hypothesis in which a) there is something intrinsic to geographical shifts that cannot be accounted for by mere knowledge of the place of origin or destination, b) individuals are selected by age, education, ethnicity, and motivation, and c) the impact of migration is selected on specific fertility-related characteristics, e.g. the postponment of childbearing. The data in the study are drawn from a KAP-style national survey which utilized a stratified (size of place) probability sampling frame of 5457 married Malaysian women between 15 and 45 years of age. In view of the hypothesis, the identification of area of early socialization and adult experience measures the area of greatest influence on individual fertility behavior. Measures of migration are advantageous to approximating the true timing of migration and fertility in a causal ordering. To conclude, Bach suggests that fertility levels of migrants can be accounted for through the assimilation model, while migration is considered to have only a unique and small effect. The acceptance of the assimilation model also suggests that migration is related to fertility through exposing individuals to two divergent environments. Rural to urban and urban to small town migrants, however, require use of both the assimilation and migration models.     

Modernization and the demographic transition: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of a revised model

Problems associated with past research on the fertility-development issue are identified in this article, and a model of the macro-level determinants of fertility -- a model informed by the revised theory of fertility transition -- is specified. This model is estimated both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. In addition, a model is specified that assesses the importance of a family planning program effort on fertility change in less developed countries. The effects on fertility change of other variables is controlled. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, the model is operationalized and the revised model is applied to 1974 rates. A longitudinal model of 1955-1959 to 1974 change in rates is then tested. The final model for 81 less developed countries from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning effort. Results support the view that high levels of modernization increase motivation to control fertility, but they also show that excessive reliance on developmental change in less developed countries to bring about fetility declines would prolong unnecessarily the current period of rapid population growth. The dominant role of modernization in the models that lack data on family planning programs only facilitates understanding of the past. Modernization is not the only road to future lower fertility. Modernization, abortion, and family planning programs are explicit policy relevant variables. It was found that legalized abortion has a large and independent impact on lowering birth rates and that family planning programs also reduce unwanted births in less developed countries. These programs were the most important factor related to change in 1955-1959 to 1974 crude birth rate.     

Modernization and the Demographic Transition: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of a Revised Model

Abstract

We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Selectivity,adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on the effects of migration on fertility: the case of Brazil

This study, based on Brazilian data from 1976, compared the fertility of migrants and stayers at both origin and destination areas. Observed patterns of fertility differentials were then analyzed in terms of 4 hypotheses of fertility behavior focused on processes of socialization, adaptation, selectivity, and disruption. In the study sample, 31% of migrants moved from rural to urban areas, 45% of moves were between urban areas, and 20% of moves were between rural areas. Among rural-to-urban migrants, only 1/3 moved from traditional to modern regions. To uncover the main patterns of migrant and stayer fertility differentials in the study population, the major flows of migrants by origin and destination were disaggregated by recency of migration, education, and age. The overall conclusions were as follows: 1) rural-urban migration flows need to be disaggregated into various modern/traditional cross-classifications (e.g., modern-rural, traditional-urban, frontier-urban) and greater emphasis needs to be placed on rural-urban, urban-urban, and rural-rural flows; 2) no robust quantitative measures of migrant-stayer fertility differentials held across migrant groups, implying that migrants differing in terms of age, education, origin, and destination are likely to behave in significantly variable fashion with regard to stayer standards of fertility behavior; 3) migrant groups with overall lower fertility levels, such as the young and better educated, are less likely to experience significant fertility reduction to bridge the origin/destination fertility gap; 4) rural-to-rural migrants do not appear to experience any lasting fertility reduction even when they move to areas with lower overall fertility rates; 5) urban-to-rural migrants tend to bridge a larger fraction of the uphill fertility gap than rural-to-urban migrants; and 6) there was evidence of partial adaptation for most migrant categories once disruption effects disappear and evidence consistent with the socialization hypothesis (no fertility reduction for at least 1 generation) was apparent for migrants originating in the least developed parts of Brazil, the frontier region, and the traditional-rural region.     

Unsanctioned births in China

This study hypothesizes that "unsanctioned" births (beyond the limit authorized by the government) in China are more likely among couples who have strong traditional fertility norms and less likely among couples who adopt new family planning norms. The theoretical framework is based on cultural conflict theory as developed by Sellin. Data are obtained from 6654 ever married women aged under 49 years from the 1987 In-Depth Fertility Survey for Guangdong province. Over 30% of the sample were married before 20 years of age. 20% had 1 child, 26.7% had 2 children, about 23% had 3 children, 13.9% had 4 children, and under 10% had 5 or more children. The average number of living children was 2.5. Findings reveal that socioeconomic status was significantly related to unsanctioned births; they were more common in less developed areas and among women of lower socioeconomic status (SES). Persons living in areas with a high monetary contribution per person in family planning efforts at the county level were less likely to have unsanctioned births. Women who lived in urban areas, worked in state enterprises, and had parents with high educational status were less likely to have unsanctioned births. They were more likely among women who married at an early age, lived with parents after the marriage, had female living children, and had failed pregnancies. They were also more likely among women who had arranged marriages, a traditional desire for large family sizes, an early marriage ideal, and a preference for sons. Knowledge of family planning and greater use of abortion were related to a lower incidence of unsanctioned births. Women who talked with their husbands about their family size desires were less likely to have unsanctioned births. Parental educational attainment only had an influence among rural women. Variables impacted on fertility differently in urban and rural areas.     

The Decoupling of Marriage and Parenthood? Trends in the Timing of Marital First Births, 1945–2002

Family formation changed dramatically over the 20th century in the United States. The impact of these changes on childbearing has primarily been studied in terms of nonmarital fertility. However, changes in family formation behavior also have implications for fertility within marriage. The authors used data from 10 fertility surveys to describe changes in the timing of marital childbearing from the 1940s through the 21st century for non‐Hispanic White and non‐Hispanic Black women. Based on harmonized data from the Integrated Fertility Survey Series, the results suggest increasing divergence in fertility timing for White women. A growing proportion of marriages begin with a premarital conception; at the same time, an increasing proportion of White women are postponing fertility within marriage. For Black women, marital fertility is increasingly postponed beyond the early years of marriage. Evaluating the sequencing of marriage and parenthood over time is critical to understanding the changing meaning of marriage.     

Education and changing reproductive behavior in Ghana

It has recently been posited by several researchers that a fertility transition is under way in Ghana. Such fertility decline would be the first instance on the west coast of Africa. Data from the 1988 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey allows closer assessment of this earlier speculation. Review of the data suggests that earlier assertions of the existence of fertility transition were premature and hastily drawn from fragmented evidence. Little evidence exists to support any hypothesis of a fertility turnaround in ghana. The findings are, however, cautiously optimistic with some indication that continued increases in the proportion of women with some secondary education may yet induce a fertility transition in the country. The author notes the lack of individual motivation to reduce fertility in Ghana and questions the merit of continuing family planning programs in such an atmosphere. Measures to reach men in family planning messages and to expand the level of women's education are recommended. Success in reducing fertility in Kenya as a result of increasing women's education is noted.     

Doubling Up or Moving Out? The Effect of International Labor Migration on Household Size

We use household panel data from Tajikistan to explore the change in living arrangements as a response to income shifts related to international labour migration. In addition, we analyse the interaction between the effect of idiosyncratic income increase resulting from a completed migration episode, and the effect of an aggregate shock – the global financial crisis – and show how different households adjust their household size during times of financial hardship. The empirical evidence indicates that while current migration is associated with an increase in household size, a completed migration episode two years before the interview was followed by family members moving out. At the same time, our empirical analysis demonstrates that migrant families doubled up in response to a financial crisis to the same extent as non-migrant families, which suggests that labour migration in Tajikistan does not insure against economic shocks in the long run.     

The 1988 Nigerian population policy

The population of Nigeria is one of the fastest growing rates in the world at 2.5-3.5%/ year. The estimated population was 101.11 million in 1987 and by 2015 is projected to be 280 million. Nigeria was the 10th most populous country in 1985 and by 2025 it would be 4th. The average number of children for each woman is 6-7 and the death rate is 16/1000. A recent government policy has restricted women to 4 children. 47% of the population is under 15 years of age. Goals of the government include reducing the growth rate, improving the standard of living, and balancing the population distribution between urban and rural areas. To do this they will need to promote awareness of their population situation to all citizens, educate young people on family planning, and to enhance development in rural and urban areas by slowing the migration to the cities. Most Nigerians view this policy as discriminatory against women, and ineffective in curbing present growth in population. Religions including Catholicism, Islam and some Christian groups do not promote birth control. Although many groups oppose this policy, most realize that the country is over populated and that with the present economic situation, a reduction in growth is needed. A more acceptable policy would restrict Christians, who marry only 1 wife, to 4 children and Moslems, who can have up to 4 wives, could have only 1 child/wife or 4 children for the man, in each family. A better method would be to encourage 3 children/family because of the young age structure in the population. Even if the fertility would decline to 2 children/family there would be substantial growth for many years to come.     

FREEDOM, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, AND FERTILITY: BLACK AMERICANS, 1860–1910

Black fertility declined sharply following Reconstruction. Demographers argue that explanations of post-bellum white fertility behavior are inapplicable to blacks. This paper hypothesizes that the reduced fertility was due to economic factors. An economic model of fertility is developed and estimated econometrically; it is consistent with the fertility experience of both races. It is concluded that several products of emancipation, including urbanization, increased literacy levels, and a shift in the economic burden of child maintenance from the slave owner to the family, were instrumental in increasing the opportunity cost of black children to their parents.     

A BRAIN GAIN OR A BRAIN DRAIN? MIGRATION,ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY,AND HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION

This study develops an endogenous growth model of migration to analyze the impact of international migration on the economic growth of a source country. When making their fertility and education decisions, adults may have the option of migrating to a foreign country. We find that changes in the migration probability or the extent of migration costs will lead to a trade-off between the quality and the quantity of children. When a host country cannot differentiate between the abilities of migrants, an increase in migration probability will raise a source country's economic growth. When low- and high-skilled workers are faced with different migration probabilities, allowing more low-skilled workers to emigrate will cause a "brain gain" in both the short run and the long run. However, relaxation of restrictions on the emigration of high-skilled workers will damage economic growth in the long run, although a brain gain may occur in the short run. ( JEL F22, J24, O15)     

A trade unionist looks at population

Rapid and uncontrolled population growth in developing countries is of concern to workers and trade unionists because: 1) it directly affect s a country's prosperity and social infrastructure; and 2) it will swell the ranks of the unemployed unless remarkable efforts are made to increase employment opportunities. A brief review of population figures is given. As a result of these statistics a joint statement was issued by the heads of state of 30 countries calling for population control activities. The chief weapon is education. The problem is that educational needs vary from area to area. The educational system in many countries of Asia is still the same as when it was introduced perhaps a century ago. In these areas there is clear need for more liberal policies of general education with improved methods. The main job of population control and education lies with the government but tra de unions should: 1) integrate family planning education with regular labor educational programs; 2) broaden occupational health services to cover family planning activities; 3) cooperate with voluntary agencies and government clinics in disseminating information, arranging lectures, and providing medical advice; 4) urge employers to provide lecture halls and necessary eqiupment, to integrate family planning with other educational activities, and where possible to provide such instruction; 5) open up trade union newsletters, mass meetings, and such to family planning. More use should be made of such mass media as radio and television. All activities should be voluntary as too much coercion will result in predictably negative attitudes on the part of workers. F amily behavior is quite complex. In some areas improved housing lowers the birthrate, in others the increased privacy increases it. Much research is needed; a concentration of studies in areas of declining fertility might yield results of great value that could serve as guidelines.