[The situation of China's urban and rural population].]

The accuracy of measurements of the ratio of urban to rural population in China is critically assessed, using data from the 1953, 1964, and 1982 censuses. As explanations for the inaccuracies, the author points to political conditions and to the use of different measurements at different points in time.     

On the situation and tasks of current birth planning work]

This is the text of the closing speech delivered by the author at the 2nd Chinese National Symposium on Population Theories held on December 13, 1979. The meeting had been successful for several reasons, including the concern, support, and leadership of the State Council, provincial, and revolutionary committees. Under the leadership of the State Council, targets of natural population growth rates were established for 1980 and 1981. Financial rewards for couples producing only 1 child had been planned. Contraception, adequate child care, and eugenics were stressed. Attendants were urged to learn from Sichuan's successful experience. During 1979, a policy was established that advocates 1 child/couple and penalizes couples producing 3 children. Agreements were signed with the UN whereby China would receive US $50 million during 1980-1983 for equipment upgrading, education, and other related purposes. The goal for a 1% growth rate could not be achieved in 1979; the actual rate was probably about 1.2%. The major reasons for this failure could be attributed to traditional feudal concepts still prevalent among many Chinese as well as to organizational problems among birth planning units and technical problems in birth control. With goals of population growth set for 1980, and 1985 and zero growth at 2000, China would encounter tremendous difficulties in its efforts to achieve them. However, under the determination and leadership of the central government coupled with valuable experience over the past 30 years, these goals would be attainable.     

New problems for China's population control

Increases in both marriages and divorces in China have created challenges for China's efforts to curb population growth. In 1987, 8.80 million marriages were registered in China--an increase of 530,000 over 1986. This trend is a result of 2 factors: increases in the numbers of people in the marriageable age group and a decline in the average age at 1st marriage. In addition, China's divorce rate has just surpassed the 1/1000 level; 890,000 couples were divorced in 1987. Given the recent alarming increase in China's birth rate, it is recommended that firm measures be taken to reduce the number of early births that result from early marriages and unplanned births from illegal marriages and to promote more widespread use of effective family planning.     

A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

The population situation in Africa]

The population growth rate in Africa has been the highest in the world since 1970--about 2.7% annually. A lower mortality rate because of better health conditions, their tradition of early marriage and polygamy, and the predominantly agricultural economy are the main reasons. The lack of coordination of such rapid population growth with the slow economic development and backward industrial and agricultural conditions have caused a very serious unemployment problem and inhibit increases in the living standard. The vast areas of desert and equatorial forest are sparsely inhabited. The coastline, Nile delta, and the plateaus are the most densely populated areas of the world. The abnormally developed cities cause expansion of the urban population and serious problems in employment, housing, traffic, health, and education. Many leaders of African countries have begun to realize the seriousness of the rapid population growth, and a few have begun family planning programs. Most countries have no official policies concerning population control and a few even encourage population growth.     

新时期北京市人口老龄化的趋势、特征和面临的压力

本文通过五普公布的有关北京市人口老龄化的数据,结合历次普查与相关调查的结果,分析了新时期北京市人口老龄化的现状、特征与发展趋势。并结合分析北京市老年人口的主要特征,揭示了现阶段北京市人口老龄化所面临的压力与问题。     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

A new study of China's population control during the past ten years

This paper summarizes the control of population in China in the past 10 years and the changes that are occurring. Recently, an increase in the number of family members has directly influenced socioeconomic status by increasing family income and improving living conditions. Rural families have no incentives to control the number of children born. The cyclic effect of the 1962-73 baby boom is also causing a recent surge in population. China has studied these problems and has taken the following measures: new family planning systems have been established; population has been controlled macroscopically and flexibility is allowed at an individual level; governmental family planning organizations have been set up and financed; family planning education has been increased; family planning services have been enforced; incentives and restrictions have been implemented. China must work as a whole to enact and enforce these policies. Families must show restraint in childbearing. The only way for this to be accomplished is by decreasing the socioeconomic incentives to have children. Finally, reforms should be in tune with changing situations.     

农民工养老保险的现状与对策

长期以来,农民工作为城市中的一个边缘群体,一直被排除在城市养老保障体系之外,同时也游离于农村养老保障体系之外。但随着农民工数量的增加,我国城市化进程的加快,以及我国的城市养老保险改革的展开,将农民工纳入养老保障体系已成为必然。本文对农民工养老保险的现状及存在的问题进行了描述,并提出了对策性的建议。     

The historical development of China's population and its characteristics]

Population developments in China from 2100 B.C. up to 1949 are described. Fluctuations due to alternating periods of prosperity and decline are noted. In particular, the author discusses the rapid population increase that occurred from the mid-1700s to the modern era as a result of changes in taxation, the development of cultivated land, and stable economic and social conditions. Estimates are provided for all the dynasties and for selected reigns.     

Retrospect and prospect of China's population

This discussion of the population of China covers the reproductive pattern and fertility rate, the death pattern and mortality, age-sex structure of the population, population and employment, urbanization, migration, and the aging of the population. During the 1949-83 period, China almost doubled her population with an annual natural growth rate of 19/1000. China's reproductive pattern developed from early childbearing, short birth spacing and many births to later childbearing, longer birth spacing and fewer births. China's total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.8 in 1950 and 2.1 in 1983 with an annual decrease of 3%. The annual national income grew at a rate of 7.1%, while the annual growth rate of population 1.9% from 1950-82. Consequently, the national income per capita increased from 50 yuan in 1950 to 338 yuan in 1982. The major factor responsible for the changes is the remarkable decline in the rural fertility rate. The crude death rate dropped from 27.1/1000 in 1963 to 7.1 in 1983 and the infant mortality rate from 179.4/1000 live births in 1936 to 36.6 in 1981. There was also a significant change in the causes of death. Population aged 0-14 in China account for 33.6%, 15-49 for 51.3%, and 50 and over for 15.1% of the total population. China is in the process of transition from an expansive to a stationary population. The age-dependency ratio declined from 68.6% in 1953 and 79.4% in 1964 to 62.6% in 1982. Sex ratios recorded in the 3 population censuses are 105.99 in 1953, 105.45 in 1964, and 105.46 in 1982. Employment in both collective and individual economies did not expand until 1978. Sectoral, occupational, and industrial structures of population started to change rationally with the adjustment and reform of economic management system in 1978. The strategic stress on the employment of China's economically active population should be shifted from farming to diversified economy and urban industry and commerce, from sectors of industrial-agricultural production to those of non-material production, and from expansion of employment to the rise of employment efficiency. The proportion of urban population in China accounted for 20.8% in 1982 with an annual growth rate of 4% during the 1949-82 period. The 1982 population census reveals that 94.4% of China's population resides on the southeast side of Aihui-Tengchong Line. Compared with the statistics in 1953, there was no notable change of the unbalanced population distribution on each side of the Line over the last 50 years. China is comparatively young in its population age structure. 1982 census data show that there were 49.29 million people at age 65 and over in 1982, representing 4.91% of the whole population. It is estimated from the age composition of 1982 and age-specific mortality rate of 1981 that there will be 88 million elderly persons by 2000, 150 million by 2020, and about 300 million as a maximum around 2040.     

台湾人口的现状分析

经过20世纪90年代成功转型,我国台湾人口的增长势头有所减缓,但其他人口问题随之出现。了解台湾人口数量、年龄构成、地域分布的现状、特征和成因,有助于进一步探究这一时期台湾人口变化的规律和特点,对预测台湾未来人口发展,制定大陆人口发展战略均有着重要的意义。     

China's population policy successful

Survey data collected in 1985 from birth histories of women in 2 provinces, Shaanxi and Hebei, and 1 city, Shanghai, show remarkable success for China's population policy. The total fertility rate fell from 1.9 to 1.1 in Shanghai, and from 5.0 and 4.6 to 2.5 and 2.2 in the provinces in the last 15 years. The infant mortality rate fell 73% in Shanghai and 50 and 59% in the provinces during the period. The proportion of babies delivered in hospitals or clinics rose; the proportion of those delivered by health professionals increased; the proportion of prenatal check-ups rose; and the immunization rate increased 49 to 96%. The mean birth weights of newborns was 3350, 3250 and 3150g in these provinces and in Shanghai. Length of lactation stood at 20.2 and 20.4 months in the provinces with no decline. Lactation lasted mean 12.4 months in Shanghai, a decline of 3 months in 10 years. Women interviewed expressed a desire for 2 or fewer children: proportionally more wanted only 1 child at younger ages. Most stated that their reasons were to curb population growth, although 10-20% believed that small families protect maternal and child health. These data show that broad masses of rural and urban residents support the government's population policy.     

我国老年弱势群体的现状及救助对策分析

在社会转型期过程中,经济的增长和社会的发展出现了一种断裂,弱势群体已经成为社会的一种大规模的、全局性的和深度性问题,再加上现今老龄化的日益严重使得此问题在弱势群体中显得更加突出。本文拟通过对老年弱势群体状况的分析,从法律、社会政策、社会网络以及人文关怀几个方面对老年弱势群体救助对策提出几点建议。     

Implementation of China's population policy

On July 1, 1982 China's 3rd national population census reported the population of the 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions on the mainland at 1,008,175,288, showing a net increase of 460,000,000 or 84% over the 548,000,000 recorded at the end of 1949. At this time China's population is about 1/4 of the world. Its population policy must conform to her national conditions and will be successful only to the extent that it does so. Discussion focuses on the main features of China's population policy. In 1953 the State Council instructed the Ministry of Health to support birth control by providing contraceptives. It also ratified provisions concerning contraception and induced abortions. In 1962 the State Council issued "Instructions on Conscientious Advocacy of Family Planning." China not only advocates and publicized family planning but also takes specific measures. Special administrative organizations were established in 1964 to oversee scientific research, production, and supply of contraceptives and to provide couples of childbearing age with free contraceptives. An all round attack on family planning work in 1966 led to unchecked childbirth resulting in rapid population growth. In 1971 Premier Zhou Enlai reiterated the importance of population control in 1971 and asked that it be incorporated into the 4th Five Year Plan for the development of the national economy. Family planning was incorporated into the Constitution in 1978. China's 20 years of experiences with family planning suggest that a country's population policy becomes effective only with repeated efforts. The 10-year period of turmoil undermined the enforcement of the population policy. Recently the State Family Planning Commission organized a nationwide fertility survey which indicated tremendous successes for China's population control drive. The total fertility rate dropped from 5.29 in the 1950s to 2.63 in the 1980s. The population census shows that the momentum of China's population growth cannot be checked without strict measures because the population is characterized by a huge base figure, a young age composition, and a fertility rate much higher than a population replacement level. China's population policy is formulated in line with her national conditions. Specific provisions for family planning reflect different ways to deal with different people.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

中国当前经济发展下的教育结构改良刍议——基于比较优势理论视角

在用比较优势理论解释现阶大学生高失业率的原因的基础上,做出中国当前经济发展需要的是大量技术工人,而非大量高技毕业生的论断,并进一步提出教育结构改良的策略,应该在调整职业教育和普通教育比例、建立多层次性的职业教育体系、探索灵活多样的职业教育发展形式、发展高等职业教育和开展农民职业教育上下功夫。     

宁夏银川市流动人口现状暨对策研究

本文在考察宁夏银川市流动人口动因、构成特征、职业状况等方面的基础上,研究与探讨流动人口对宁夏银川市在城市化进程与经济发展以及构建和谐社会方面的影响,试图在此基础上,提出关于对银川市流动人口发展与管理的对策。     

The center of gravity of China's population and its moving locus]

The concept of and methods of estimating the center of gravity of the population of China are described. Changes in its locus over the period 1912 to 1978 are examined. It is noted that the center of population has moved back and forth between East and West over this period, although the main center has remained in the East and South of the country.