Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality

This paper considers the modelling of mortality rates classified by age, time, and small area with a view to developing life table parameters relevant to assessing trends in inequalities in life chances. In particular, using a fully Bayes perspective, one may assess the stochastic variation in small area life table parameters, such as life expectancies, and also formally assess whether trends in indices of inequality in mortality are significant. Modelling questions include choice between random walk priors for age and time effects as against non-linear regression functions, questions of identifiability when several random effects are present in the death rates model, and the choice of model when both within and out-of-sample performance may be important. A case study application involves 44 small areas in North East London and mortality in five sub-periods (1986-88, 1989-91, 1992-94, 1995-97, 1998-2000) between 1986 and 2000, with the final period used for assessing out-of-sample performance.     

Excess mortality among men in Poland

Trends in mortality among males in Poland for the period 1950-1986 are examined. Factors contributing to the excess mortality of males are discussed.     

Disaggregation problems in demographic projecting

Methodological aspects of population projections using disaggregation by age, sex, and place of residence are examined. The concepts discussed are illustrated using Polish data for the period 1976-1985.     

Estimation of the degree of dependence in the temperatures in the northern hemisphere using semi-parametric techniques

We are concerned in this article with the estimation of the degree of dependence between the observations of the monthly temperatures in the northern hemisphere from 1854 to 1989 by means of using fractionally integrated semi-parametric techniques. We use several estimation procedures proposed by P. M. Robinson in a number of papers, and the results indicate that the order of integration of the series is around 0.37, implying that the time series is stationary but with long memory behaviour. Separating the data in two subsamples (1854-1921 and 1922-89), the results show that there has been an increase in the degree of dependence across time by about 0.05-0.10, the order of integration oscillating around 0.3 (0.35) for the time period 1854-1921, and around 0.35 (0.40) for the period 1922-89.     

Multivariate Kendall's tau for change‐point detection in copulas

Statistical procedures for the detection of a change in the dependence structure of a series of multivariate observations are studied in this work. The test statistics that are proposed are $L_1$ , $L_2$ , and $L_{\infty }$ distances computed from vectors of differences of Kendall's tau; two multivariate extensions of Kendall's measure of association are used. Since the distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis of no change depend on the unknown underlying copula of the vectors, a procedure based on the multiplier central limit theorem is used for the computation of p‐values; the method is shown to be valid both asymptotically and for moderate sample sizes. Alternative versions of the tests that take into account possible breakpoints in the marginal distributions are also investigated. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests are powerful under many scenarios of change‐point. In addition, two estimators of the time of change are proposed and their efficiency is carefully studied. The methodologies are illustrated on simulated series from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 65–82; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Estimation of population coverage in the 1990 United States census based on demographic analysis

"This article presents estimates of net coverage of the national population in the 1990 [U.S.] census, based on the method of demographic analysis. The general techniques of demographic analysis as an analytic tool for coverage measurement are discussed, including use of the demographic accounting equation, data components, and strengths and limitations of the method. Patterns of coverage displayed by the 1990 estimates are described, along with similarities or differences from comparable demographic estimates for previous censuses....A final section presents the results of the first statistical assessment of the uncertainty in the demographic coverage estimates for 1990." Comments by Clifford C. Clogg and Christine L. Himes (pp. 1,072-4) and Jeffrey S. Passel (pp. 1,074-7) and a rejoinder by the authors (pp. 1,077-9) are included.     

Tree-based modeling of time-varying coefficients in discrete time-to-event models

Lifetime Data Analysis - Hazard models are popular tools for the modeling of discrete time-to-event data. In particular two approaches for modeling time dependent effects are in common use. The...     

Efficient design of experiments in the Monod model

Summary. Estimation and experimental design in a non-linear regression model that is used in microbiology are studied. The Monod model is defined implicitly by a differential equation and has numerous applications in microbial growth kinetics, water research, pharmacokinetics and plant physiology. It is proved that least squares estimates are asymptotically unbiased and normally distributed. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is the basis for the construction of efficient designs of experiments. In particular locally D -, E - and c -optimal designs are determined and their properties are studied theoretically and by simulation. If certain intervals for the non-linear parameters can be specified, locally optimal designs can be constructed which are robust with respect to a misspecification of the initial parameters and which allow efficient parameter estimation. Parameter variances can be decreased by a factor of 2 by simply sampling at optimal times during the experiment.     

Education of women and changes in the family model in Poland

Trends in women's education in Poland for the period 1960-1986 are reviewed, with a focus on the status of women and the allocation of women's time. The author concludes that the rapid changes in women's educational status that have occurred are not matched by equally rapid changes in family behavior.     

Statistical materials: the family in the USSR

Statistical data are presented on the family in the USSR. Data from the 1979 census are included on number of families and their distribution by size; distribution of families by size and type, social class, and nationality; number of families including members of different nationalities, 1959-1979; number of marriages and divorces, 1960-1981; changes in age at marriage, 1960-1981; and distribution of births by age of mother, 1969-1970, 1974-1975, and 1980-1981.     

Control charts for monitoring the median in non-negative asymmetric data

Statistical Methods & Applications - Control charts are commonly used for monitoring the mean of processes. However, there are practical applications in which asymmetric data are the standard....     

Total error in PES estimates of population

"We describe a methodology for estimating the accuracy of dual systems estimates (DSE's) of population, census estimates of population, and estimates of undercount in the census. The DSE's are based on the census and a post-enumeration survey (PES). We apply the methodology to the 1988 dress rehearsal census of St. Louis and east-central Missouri and we discuss its applicability to the 1990 [U.S.] census and PES. The methodology is based on decompositions of the total (or net) error into components, such as sampling error, matching error, and other nonsampling errors. Limited information about the accuracy of certain components of error, notably failure of assumptions in the 'capture-recapture' model, but others as well, lead us to offer tentative estimates of the errors of the census, DSE, and undercount estimates for 1988. Improved estimates are anticipated for 1990." Comments are included by Eugene P. Ericksen and Joseph B. Kadane (pp. 855-7) and Kenneth W. Wachter and Terence P. Speed (pp. 858-61), as well as a rejoinder by Mulry and Spencer (pp. 861-3).     

Duration of marriages in Poland

Some estimates of future marriage duration in Poland are presented. The estimates are based on the assumption that marriages will end at the death of either spouse, and these deaths are projected using 1980-1981 official life tables by sex. The tables showing the probability of marriages ending in this way are provided for various five-year age groups and take into account differences in age between husband and wife.     

中国中西部地区科技竞争力评价与分析

科技竞争力是区域核心竞争力的关键性要素。运用正态变换下等权平均法及变异系数法等定量分析技术，对中国中西部省市科技竞争力综合水平和均衡度进行系统研究，客观全面地揭示了中西部地区科技发展呈现出显著的梯度差异及不均衡的状态，并提出一些相应的对策建议，希望能对中国中西部省市科技竞争力的提升具有参考价值。     

The analysis of seasonality in births and deaths

"Monthly data on live births and stillbirths and quarterly data on mortality and infant mortality in Poland are analyzed for the period 1983-1985. The aim is to evaluate and compare seasonal fluctuations in these variables in Katowice voivodship and in Poland as a whole. Effects of seasonal factors are estimated separately for males and females and urban-rural areas via a regression model. For births, effects of seasonality are similar in Katowice and Poland, while for deaths significant differences are observed.     

Trends in internal migration

Trends in internal migration in Poland are analyzed using official data for the period 1950-1984. The author notes that the volume of such migration has declined in the 1980s. Special consideration is given to rural-urban migration and its determinants.     

Estimating prediction error in microarray classification: Modifications of the 0.632+ bootstrap when ${\bf n} < {\bf p}$

We are interested in estimating prediction error for a classification model built on high dimensional genomic data when the number of genes (p) greatly exceeds the number of subjects (n). We examine a distance argument supporting the conventional 0.632+ bootstrap proposed for the $n > p$ scenario, modify it for the $n < p$ situation and develop learning curves to describe how the true prediction error varies with the number of subjects in the training set. The curves are then applied to define adjusted resampling estimates for the prediction error in order to achieve a balance in terms of bias and variability. The adjusted resampling methods are proposed as counterparts of the 0.632+ bootstrap when $n < p$ , and are found to improve on the 0.632+ bootstrap and other existing methods in the microarray study scenario when the sample size is small and there is some level of differential expression. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 133–150; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Firth adjusted score function for monotone likelihood in the mixture cure fraction model

Lifetime Data Analysis - Models for situations where some individuals are long-term survivors, immune or non-susceptible to the event of interest, are extensively studied in biomedical research....     

The analysis of putative environmental pollution gradients in spatially correlated epidemiological data

The analysis of putative sources of health hazard has recently received considerable attention. Most analyses, however, assume that the observations - such as counts in census tracts or exact locations of cases - are not spatially correlated. This assumption, if violated, could have serious consequences for inferences made from such data. This paper outlines a number of simple Monte Carlo test procedures for this situation.     

The analysis of putative environmental pollution gradients in spatially correlated epidemiological data

The analysis of putative sources of health hazard has recently received considerable attention. Most analyses, however, assume that the observations - such as counts in census tracts or exact locations of cases - are not spatially correlated. This assumption, if violated, could have serious consequences for inferences made from such data. This paper outlines a number of simple Monte Carlo test procedures for this situation.