Statistical materials: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data on the population of the USSR by sex and Union republic as of January 1, 1982, are presented. Data are included on population by sex; birth, death, and natural growth rates, 1980 and 1981; distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month, 1981; distribution of births by birth order, 1981; age-specific birth rates for rural and urban areas, 1980 and 1981; mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer, 1980 and 1981; marriages by age of bride and groom, 1981; and divorces by duration of marriage and age of husband and wife, 1981.     

Higher female than male mortality in some countries of South Asia: a digest

A statistical study was made of sex ratios and mortality in Ceylon, Pakistan, and India. Contrary to general expectations, female mortality was higher than male mortality. A greater divergence in the sex ratio was found with increased age. Female emigration and abnormal sex ratios at birth are discounted as explanations of the phenomenon. It is considered that underenumeration of females in the census and higher female mortality rates, especially during the reproductive years and childhood, are responsible for the inverted sex ratio. The projected sex ratios for these countries are not reflected in the model life tables derived from international experience.     

Statistical materials: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data are included on the population of the USSR by sex and Union Republic as of January 1, 1981; birth, death, and natural growth rates for 1979 and 1980; distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month, 1980; distribution of births by birth order; age distribution of birth rates in urban and rural areas and by Union Republic; death rates from cardiovascular disease and cancer, 1979 and 1980; age at first marriage and marriages by age of bride and groom, 1980; and divorces by duration of marriage and age of spouses, 1980.     

Statistical materials,Part 1: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data are presented on the population of the USSR by sex and Union Republic as of January 1, 1983. Data are included on birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate, 1981 and 1982; distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month, 1982; distribution of births by birth order, 1982; age-specific birth rates by rural or urban area and Union Republic, 1981 and 1982; mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer, 1981 and 1982; marriages by age of bride and groom, 1982; and number of divorces by duration of marriage and age of husband and wife, 1982.     

Statistical materials

Official population data for the USSR are presented for 1985 and 1986. Part 1 (pp. 65-72) contains data on capitals of union republics and cities with over one million inhabitants, including population estimates for 1986 and vital statistics for 1985. Part 2 (p. 72) presents population estimates by sex and union republic, 1986. Part 3 (pp. 73-6) presents data on population growth, including birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1984-1985; seasonal distribution of births and deaths; birth order; age-specific birth rates in urban and rural areas and by union republic; marriages; age at marriage; and divorces.     

Statistical materials. Part 2: natural population increase in the USSR

Selected vital statistics for the USSR for 1984 are presented. Data are included on birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1983-1984; the distribution of births, deaths, and marriages by month; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban areas; age-specific birth rates by union republics; distribution of marriages by age and sex; distribution of married couples by age of husband and wife; and divorces by length of marriage and age of husband and wife.     

Statistical materials. Part 4: natural increase of population in the USSR

Data are presented on the natural increase of the population in the USSR. Data for 1982-1983 are included on birth, death, and natural increase rates; births, deaths, and marriages by month; age-specific birth rates by urban or rural area and by Union Republic; deaths due to circulatory disease or cancer; marriage by age; and divorces by marriage duration and age of husband and wife.     

THE CASE FOR PARITY AND BIRTH-ORDER STATISTICS

Parity refers to the number of (live) births that a woman (or man) has had. Birth order refers to whether a birth is the first, second, third or higher‐order birth of the parent. In the context of low and shifting fertility, parity and birth‐order statistics are becoming increasingly important for understanding fertility trends and patterns, for policy, and for carrying out projections of future fertility. In Australia, the main sources of demographic data are birth, death and marriage registers, and the five‐yearly national census. Both the birth registers and the census are ideally placed to collect data required to calculate parity and birth‐order statistics. However not all Australian states and territories collect or code the necessary information in the birth registers, and the parity question ‘For each female, how many babies has she ever had?’ is only asked every second census; that is, once every 10 years. In this paper, we outline the importance and uses of parity and birth‐order statistics. We discuss the Australian data available at present and their gaps and shortcomings. We then describe the ‘gold standard’ of parity and birth‐order statistics and how Australia can achieve this standard through some minor changes to the data collection process.     

A note on a transient queuing system of a linear birth–immigration process in presence of twin births

In this article, we consider a simple transient queuing system, i.e., a linear birth process with immigration in the presence of twin births. We find the differential-difference equation and also the probability-generating function (p.g.f.) for this process. Again, we generalize it into a linear birth process with immigration in the presence of both single birth or twin births and again for the case of multiple births. From the p.g.f. of linear birth process with immigration in the presence of twin births, we find some particular transient queuing processes like linear birth process with twin births and simple immigration process. Direct derivations of mean and variance of these processes are also discussed without using the generating functions.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.     

The population of the USSR

Official population data for the USSR for 1986 and 1987 are presented. Tables are included on age and sex distribution; rural and urban population; birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1970-1986; fertility and mortality by sex, 1970-1986; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban area and Union republic; age-specific death rates, 1970-1986; infant mortality, 1970-1986; life expectancy, 1926-1986; life tables; marriage and age at marriage; and divorce.     

The analysis of seasonality in births and deaths

"Monthly data on live births and stillbirths and quarterly data on mortality and infant mortality in Poland are analyzed for the period 1983-1985. The aim is to evaluate and compare seasonal fluctuations in these variables in Katowice voivodship and in Poland as a whole. Effects of seasonal factors are estimated separately for males and females and urban-rural areas via a regression model. For births, effects of seasonality are similar in Katowice and Poland, while for deaths significant differences are observed.     

Decline and fall: Unemployment among Britain's non-white ethnic communities 1960–1999

The declining employment fortunes of Britain's non-white communities, relative to whites, are explained. To achieve this comparison, some historical official sources of unemployment data are reviewed. The earliest known official time series on unemployment of non-whites dates back to 1960. This historical context is explored, especially the reluctance to make the early data more widely known. An unemployment series for non-white males and females from 1970 to 1999 is derived in two separate ways by splicing together official sources. These series are compared with unemployment of whites to demonstrate a relative increase in unemployment of non-whites.     

New information from the State Committee on Statistics of the USSR

Selected data concerning the USSR are presented. They concern vital statistics by republic for 1989 for rural and urban areas, birth order, life expectancy by sex, and population change and vital statistics for cities with a population over one million.     

Mark-resighting analysis of a California gull population

California gulls ( Larus californicus ) of known age and sex were censused on their breeding colony in 1979, 1980 and 1984 through 1993. Ages of 235 males and 196 females ranged from 4 to 27 years. Age classes used in the analysis were limited to 17, 4 through 19, and 20 or more as a final age category because data on gulls over 20 were sparse. Survival declined with age in a way that was parsimoniously modelled with a quadratic function. Other factors, sex and time, did not explain any variation in survival. Resighting depended on age, sex and time. Younger adults skipped breeding more frequently than did older adults, and females skipped breeding more frequently than did males. There was also good evidence for time dependence in resighting probability, but its inclusion in the model occurred at the expense of interpretability and precision. In a data set such as this, resighting probability may assume more importance than a mere 'nuisance parameter'. In this study, resighting history measured attendance at the breeding ground. In turn, attendance rates may be a manifestation of reproductive strategy, which can also have consequences for survival. In this situation, there may be heterogeneity in both survival and resighting probability that is unexplained by the model. While such complexity may well be a nuisance to deal with, it can also point to important biological questions.     

Seasonal patterns of fertility measures: theory and data

The distribution of births by month exhibits a seasonal pattern in most populations. The monthly marital fertility rate for an area of Bangladesh provides a good example of the seasonal periodicity. Seasonal patterns of measures of reproduction in a population of married women are considered. Equations are developed that predict the seasonal patterns of these alternative measures under the assumption that the fertility rate (R) follows a trigonometric curve. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the measures in a Bangladesh population that has a pronounced seasonal fertility. The investigation is intended both to validate the theoretical framework developed in the 1st part of the paper as well as to determine whether seasonal variation in actual populations is sufficiently large to affect the alternative measures significantly. 4 measures are considered: pregnancy prevalence (PP)--the proportion of married women who are pregnant at the survey date; mean open birth interval (MOI)--the time from the last live birth to the date of the survey for parous women and from the time of marriage to the date of the survey for nulliparous women; mean closed interval-birth (MCIB)--the mean interval between the last 2 live births for married women who have a birth in the period immediately preceding the survey date; and mean closed interval-woman (MCIW)--the mean interval between the last 2 live births for women who have had at least 2 children by the time of the survey. It is assumed that the seasonal pattern of the fertility rate of a population follows a cosine curve and that there is no trend in annual fertility from year to year. The lag and relative variability of the other measures are considered in comparison with the fertility rate curve. The predictions from this theoretical effort, when compared with observed patterns and trigonometric regression results for each measure in data from Bangladesh, are shown to be quite accurate. The figure and regression results show that R, PP, and MOI have definite seasonal periodicity, but MCIB and MCIW do not display any seasonal patterns. If there is a secular trend in fertility in addition to seasonality, these relationships between the seasonal patterns of the measures may no longer hold. There is a disadvantage to using closed interval measures, for they are unable to detect effects of limiting of childbearing in a population since they are based only on information from women who have births.     

Using information from demographic analysis in post-enumeration survey estimation

"Population estimates from the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), used to measure decennial census undercount, were obtained from dual system estimates (DSE's) that assumed independence within strata defined by age-race-sex-geography and other variables. We make this independence assumption for females, but develop methods to avoid the independence assumption for males within strata by using national level sex ratios from demographic analysis (DA).... We consider several...alternative DSE's, and use DA results for 1990 to apply them to data from the 1990 U.S. census and PES."     

Factors influencing Soay sheep survival

We present a survival analysis of Soay sheep mark recapture and recovery data. Unlike previous conditional analyses, it is not necessary to assume equality of recovery and recapture probabilities; instead these are estimated by maximum likelihood. Male and female sheep are treated separately, with the higher numbers and survival probabilities of the females resulting in a more complex model than that used for the males. In both cases, however, age and time aspects need to be included and there is a strong indication of a reduction in survival for sheep aged 7 years or more. Time variation in survival is related to the size of the population and selected weather variables, by using logistic regression. The size of the population significantly affects the survival probabilities of male and female lambs, and of female sheep aged 7 or more years. March rainfall and a measure of the North Atlantic oscillation are found to influence survival significantly for all age groups considered, for both males and females. Either of these weather variables can be used in a model. Several phenotypic and genotypic individual covariates are also fitted. The only covariate which is found to influence survival significantly is the type of horn of first-year female sheep. There is a substantial variation in the recovery probabilities over time, reflecting in part the increased effort when a population crash was expected. The goodness of fit of the model is checked by using graphical procedures.     

Diet Revealed?: Semiparametric Estimation of Nutrient Intake–Age Relationships

Smoothed estimates of the complex relationships between age and intakes of energy, fat, calcium and vitamin C are obtained for males and females from British National Food Survey data covering the period 1974–94. Since the data record household food acquisitions during a survey week, not food consumption by individuals, a model is constructed in which average nutrient intakes by sex at each completed year of age are parameters which are estimated by roughness penalized least squares. Income per head and region of residence are controlled for in a non-linear extension of the model. The sensitivity of the estimates to variations in eating out and the incidence of visitors is examined. Age- and sex-specific estimates of the proportion of energy from fat, a key health indicator, are derived and compared across a 21-year period.