On the relationship between population growth and economic development]

People are producers as well as consumers. If we look at only one side and ignore the other, we will be unable to reach impartial conclusions concerning the population problem. An obvious and close relationship exists between population growth and national economic development. If the two do not match each other, there will be numerous contradictory problems. For example, if the population grows too fast, serious social and economic problems will be created, such as a rise in the demand for living resources, an oversupply of the labor force, unemployment, and an insufficient availability of arable land, a shortage of public housing, more demand for health care and public transportation, and cultural and educational enterprises. In addition, a rapid population growth may cause more problems for the natural environment. As a result of overpopulation, the pressure on natural resources will be intensified and may therefore cause damage to the environment and create an ecological imbalance. All the above may bring very serious difficulties and obstacles to the advancement of socialism and modernized constructions. To avoid this, we must try to solve the population problem thoroughly and maintain a balanced relationship between the population growth and economic development.     

从大连来看中国大城市人口老龄化的特点和趋势

以大连市为个案,通过对近十几年来大连人口老龄化特点及其未来十几年人口老龄化发展趋势的分析,讨论了中国大城市在人口老龄化过程中所面临的问题及表现出来的特征。像大连一样,随着工业化的进一步推进、人口控制政策持续发挥作用以及大城市人口平均预期寿命的继续延长,中国大城市将会更加普遍地面临大连市目前已经遇到及今后将要遇到的问题,对此,中央及各大城市政府有关部门须引起高度重视,尽早研究相应的应对措施。     

Population and employment in China]

The unequal distribution of farmlands in rural areas and the extremely low productivity in the cities were the fundamental causes of unemployment and population problems in old China. Tremendous progress was made after 1949. The serious economic disturbances caused by Lin-piao and the "Gang of Four" caused great unemployment again. The slow development of China's productivity, poor business management, the involvement of women in social activities, the morality rate decrease, and the population growth rate increase are the main reasons for China's unemployment problem. The fundamental solution is to respect the objective laws of nature and economics and to develop social productivity. In the country we should implement the total development of agricultue, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. In towns and cities service occupations and handicraft industries should be developed, education and humanities need to be improved, and transportation, communications, and many other industries are still backward. There is high potential for development and vast opportunities for additional labor. We should constantly cultivate our high quality workforce to meet the demand of modernization. Population control is important because the higher the population growth rate the slower the accumulation of wealth. Instead of being a producer for the society the additional labor can be a burden. The vital factor in achieving the "Four Modernizations" is not the quantity of labor but the increase in productivity.     

Population problems in the areas where the relatives of overseas Chinese reside]

In the areas where relatives of overseas Chinese (huaqiao) reside, the population density is normally high. For example, in Jinjiang county of Fujian Province, where there is such population, the population density is six times that of Fujian Province in general. The main reason for this situation is that the local economy has improved greatly since 1949 and the living standard in the local area has been elevated as a result of improved medical care and a sharply reduced death rate. Financial resources sent back by the overseas Chinese to their relatives at home have also contributed to the local economic development. The traditional belief favoring more children to carry on the family line is still popular among the general public. All these factors have contributed to a rapid population growth, and the problem of over-population is becoming increasingly serious. At the present time, an understanding has to be reached that population control is in the best interest of both the local people and their relatives overseas. In addition to a control of the population growth, the quality of the population should also be improved. Some advantageous conditions in the areas inhabited by the relatives of overseas Chinese are helpful to reach the goal of family planning: (1) More advanced development in business and industry, (2) more schools established with financial support sent in from overseas, and (3) a general higher cultural and educational level of the local people. Because of these conditions, population control should be achieved more easily than in other places.     

资源型城市人口生存与发展问题分析及对策选择

在资源型城市所面临的诸多问题中,人口生存与发展问题是最基本的问题。资源型城市的失业率高,社会保障程度低,教育落后,生态环境污染严重,这些问题直接影响着社会的稳定。这些问题的出现,既与国家过去资源开发的政策有关,也与资源型城市中人口自身的原因有关。因此,要解决这些问题,资源型城市自身要努力转型,同时也离不开国家的救援机制。     

The demographic situation in the ESCAP region viewed in terms of social welfare. (Abstracted information from Committee on Population,Second Session,Bangkok, Thailand,December 13-19, 1978.)

The combined population of the ESCAP region is estimated to be growing by an annual increment of 50 million people, and is expected to reach an estimated 2936 million in 1990, when it will constitute 55.4% of the total world population. Continued population growth implies a demand for food, and the majority of the ESCAP countries have to depend on imports to meet their food requirements. Main problems are to improve the capability to produce more food, to adequately provide for health services, housing, and educational facilities for a fast expanding school-age population. With the continuing high rate of population growth the labor force will continue to increase and result in a high rate of unemployment. Population planning must be made an integral part of the over-all plans for socioeconomic development of the entire region.     

Some fundamental problems concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development]

The population growth rate is closely related to the quality of economic life, available funds for individual and social consumption, national income to be used for reproduction, and the labor employment situation. Since liberation, socialism has not been able to show its superiority, mainly because of China's large population figure, low economic productivity, low national income, and poor management in the relationship between consumption and accumulation. In order to solve these problems, we need to adequately control the pace of the population growth and match the rate of population growth with the pace of economic development. A way to increase national income is through saving and avoiding unnecessary waste. Social expenditures on education, culture, science, health and medical care, social welfare, and investment in the promotion of people's wisdom should all be increased. Meanwhile, the living standard of the people needs to be raised, and capital accumulation should also be managed so that funds will be available for industrial and economic enterprises. Existing inefficient production enterprises should be properly reorganized so that full employment may be achieved. In this way, the national economy will have more prosperity, and the people will benefit more from the Socialist policy.     

Some understandings about the population development of the minorities in China]

China is a Socialist country which is composed of numerous ethnic groups. In addition to the Han people, there are 55 minorities in various parts of China. Since liberation (1949), the lives of the minorities have improved greatly. There has also been reasonable advancement in their local economic situation, cultural and educational establishments, and health care, and the population growth among ethnic minorities has also increased rapidly. At the present time, the rate of population growth among the minorities is extremely high, and the age structure of the minority population is young. The custom of early marriage and having children at a young age is still popular. The levels of economic development, cultural and educational establishments and medical and health care are still too low to satisfy current needs of the local people. Within a short period of time, population growth among the minorities may reach among climax, and the problem of overpopulation may become more serious. This new trend is not encouraging for the economic and cultural development of the minority people. In order to protect the economic situation of the minority population, various rules and regulations should be established according to local situations, and work in family planning and birth control is also urgently needed for the minorities.     

The integration and coordination of strategies for population growth and economic development]

Strategies on population growth are the guiding principles for population reproduction and activity. A strategy for economic development is the fundamental policy directing all the economic activities of the nation. These 2 strategies are closely related and support each other. They share some common grounds: 1) with a large population and a high percentage of the population being peasant, the labor productivity remains rather low, and population pressure on the economy is intense; 2) when a country has large territory and rich natural resources, the average arable land for each individual is still not much, and some available resources for each individual are also limited; and 3) the distribution of the population is out of balance. The areas with a higher population density receive more pressure on their economy. This situation explains the need to improve the population distribution. Labor resources should match reasonable with natural resources in order to reduce the pressure on areas with a high population density. Because of the labor's low level professional skill and poor management, modernized constructions have met with serious troubles. Moreover, the traditional view on population and population growth also needs correction. In order to integrate and coordinate these 2 strategies, one needs to understand correctly the connection between the two, and also understand the effects of the economy on the population. In the 2nd step, we need to pay attention to how to control the size of population and improve quality in order to match modernized production patterns. The balance between the two should be achieved with constant efforts. In population growth strategy, efforts are needed to limit quantity, improve quality, adjust the population structure, and redesign the geographical distribution of the population. In the economic development strategy, efforts are needed to promote economic effectiveness, a balanced development and a sustained growth for the national economy, in order to increase industrial and agricultural production and provide more income for each individual.     

托达罗人口迁移模型与中国城乡综合就业发展战略

美国经济学家托达罗认为,农村劳动力向城市流动的结果不仅使城市失业人口大量增加,而且导致农村劳动力严重不足,因此应控制农村劳动力向城市迁移。我国当前存在着大量的农村剩余劳动力,城市就业形势又相当严峻,要全面解决中国的就业问题,应借鉴托达罗人口迁移理论,实现城乡综合就业。     

Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities]

In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.     

From the situation of our country, the stress in population control should be put on the rural areas]

The population problem exists around the world and each country shows some special characteristics. Of the 1 billion population of China, about 800 million people belong to the rural population. This number is very large and is increasing rapidly. The average age of the Chinese rural population is comparatively young and early marriage is widespread. A traditional Chinese belief in having many children is still popular. In addition, households with more children get more grain supplies according to the existing rationing system, and the concept of birth control is not popular because of the low educational and cultural levels. As a result, the growth rate of the rural population has remained high for a long time. In order to reach the goals of economic development and control of population growth by the end of this century, priority efforts have to be made to curb the increasing rural population. Ideological education for peasants should be strengthened in order to elevate their scientific and cultural levels and improve the overall quality of the rural population. Adequate birth control measures and health care should be popularized in rural areas. Cooperation between the peasants and the government will bring down the fast growing rate of increase in the rural population.     

The population situation and its relation to the economy in Turkey]

In southwest Asia, Turkey is a leading nation in collecting complete data on its population through the use of a modern census. Based on available information, the development of Turkey's population can be summarized as follows: 1) in the last 20 years, Turkey's population increase rate has been 2% annually, very high by world standards; 2) the average age is young, and the population's burden coefficient is above 80%; and 3) the geographical distribution of the population is uneven. The population density in central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country is low, while the coastal provinces near the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea have a high population density. In the last 50 years, the political situation in Turkey has remained stable. The national economy has developed rapidly, and the infant mortality rate has declined as a result of advancements in medicine and health care. Since Turkey is an Islamic country, birth control and abortion are not popular. The traditional early marriage for women and high illiteracy rate among women have contributed to a rapid population growth. In the past 20 years, however, the national economy has been overburdened by a rapid population growth. Problems of unemployment, a housing shortage in cities, inadequate public health facilities, a shortage of schools, a decline in farm land and inadequate food supplies have become increasingly obvious. Economically speaking, Turkey is much better than most developing nations. With its current foundation and rich natural resources, the country needs only to reduce the natural population increase rate slightly in order to achieve a balanced economic development.     

The population and economic problems of South Asia]

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

Some problems observed in the 1 percent sample survey of fertility in Shanghai]

From July to December of 1982, a sample survey of fertility was conducted of childbearing females between the ages of 15 and 49 in Shanghai. The results of this survey can be summarized by the following points: (1) The percentage of females of childbearing age is very high, and the situation in the suburbs is even more serious than that inside the city. This is the major reason for a large scale population increase in Shanghi. (2) The marriage rate is high, the divorce rate is low, and the people who remain single in their lifetime are few. This stable family and marriage situation provides a favorable condition for population growth. (3) The average marrying age for childbearing females has gradually risen in recent years, but this trend is now reversed. More and more people are getting married when they are young. (4) Fertility for childbearing aged females decreases according to the increase in their age. In the last two years, however, this downward trend has been reversed, and fertility is gradually increasing again. The above points show that family planning and birth control have entered the most crucial period in Shanghai. Efforts and enforcement should be strengthened in the area of family planning, and no relaxation should be allowed so that the goal of controlling rapid population growth may be achieved.     

On problems of population in minority nationalities (author's transl)]

China's large population is made up mostly of Han people, but there are more than 50 other ethnic groups. Population policies must be made taking into consideration the different historical and economic characteristics of each group. An example of the ill effects of high population growth is the Lin Xia autonomous state, inhabitated by the Hui ethnic group. In 1956 living conditions and food supply were still good for a population of 839,000. By 1978 the population had increased to 1,370,000, per capita income had dropped from 80 yuans to 40 yuans, and gross agricultural product could not meet the needed food supply. Although the number of schools had increased, by 1978 32% of elementary school children, 10% of elementary school graduates, and 60% of junior high school graduates were unable to enter school for lack of facilities. The standard of education decreased, and unemployment increased. In 1973 the birth control program was initiated in the province. Natural increase went from 28.7% in 1973 to 14.7%, and the total birth rate was 58,232 births less than expected; result was an increased school budget and better food and clothing for all. The opposite problem is presented by the Akesa autonomous state of Hasake ethnicity. In 1949 the population of this ethnicity was 1700 people and the standard of living was high; however, natural population increase was only 1.5/1000, not enough to provide needed labor to cope with economical development. In this area population increase should be encouraged through various means of health care. As for other minorities living in areas mainly inhabited by other ethnic groups, they should keep their customs and beliefs but follow the population policies of the majority of the people. Birth control is a communist idea; it serves to improve the health and welfare of the whole nation, and it will not interfere with the stable unity of the various ethnicities.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

Asia's demographic future: the next 20 years

Even with the decline of fertility rates in most of Asia, the problem of population growth is still very serious. It is important to stress to Asian leaders and Western researchers that the problem is by no means solved just because fertility rates have declined. In many countries the number of young people is quite substantial and when they increase their numbers, certain problems will develop. Over the next 20 years, urban areas will see a marked increase in population and the resultant problems. Unemployment, increased pollution, and overcrowding will greatly decrease the quality of life for millions of people. This will happen because of natural increases and from the migration of the rural communities. In the rural areas, because of high fertility rates, population will continue to grow in spite of the large numbers of peoples moving to the city. Asia has some of the most densely populated agricultural communities and as their numbers increase, poverty and its associated problem will follow. The solutions to these problems include continued efforts in family planning, maternal and child health, and the improvement of the status of women.     

老年照料问题的挑战与对策——老年照料产业初探

随着人口老龄化的加剧和社会的发展 ,老年生活照料问题日益突出 ,本文对这一问题的严峻性、对策谈一点看法