Robust confidence regions for multinomial probabilities

Generally, confidence regions for the probabilities of a multinomial population are constructed based on the Pearson χ² statistic. Morales et al. (Bootstrap confidence regions in multinomial sampling. Appl Math Comput. 2004;155:295–315) considered the bootstrap and asymptotic confidence regions based on a broader family of test statistics known as power-divergence test statistics. In this study, we extend their work and propose penalized power-divergence test statistics-based confidence regions. We only consider small sample sizes where asymptotic properties fail and alternative methods are needed. Both bootstrap and asymptotic confidence regions are constructed. We consider the percentile and the bias corrected and accelerated bootstrap confidence regions. The latter confidence region has not been studied previously for the power-divergence statistics much less for the penalized ones. Designed simulation studies are carried out to calculate average coverage probabilities. Mean absolute deviation between actual and nominal coverage probabilities is used to compare the proposed confidence regions.     

Group-sequential logrank methods for trial designs using bivariate non-competing event-time outcomes

We discuss the multivariate (2L-variate) correlation structure and the asymptotic distribution for the group-sequential weighted logrank statistics formulated when monitoring two correlated event-time outcomes in clinical trials. The asymptotic distribution and the variance–covariance for the 2L-variate weighted logrank statistic are derived as available in various group-sequential trial designs. These methods are used to determine a group-sequential testing procedure based on calendar times or information fractions. We apply the theoretical results to a group-sequential method for monitoring a clinical trial with early stopping for efficacy when the trial is designed to evaluate the joint effect on two correlated event-time outcomes. We illustrate the method with application to a clinical trial and describe how to calculate the required sample sizes and numbers of events.

     

On the sample size of curtailed tests

Formulas are given for the asymptotic distribution, mean, and variance of m^-1N_m,where NN_m is the random sample size of the curtailed version of a fixed-sample most powerful test based on sample size m. The adequacy of the formulas is numerically investigated in some important applications where exact formulas can also be derived     

Three Bartlett-type corrections for score statistics in symmetric nonlinear regression models

We present simple matrix formulae for corrected score statistics in symmetric nonlinear regression models. The corrected score statistics follow more closely a χ ² distribution than the classical score statistic. Our simulation results indicate that the corrected score tests display smaller size distortions than the original score test. We also compare the sizes and the powers of the corrected score tests with bootstrap-based score tests.     

Analyzing Mean Profiles of Nonnormal Populations

We consider testing whether the mean vectors of two or more populations have parallel, coincident, or flat profiles when the validity of normality is not known, and the sample sizes are moderate. Using some properties of multivariate moments and matrix manipulations, we obtain the asymptotic expansions for the null distribution of the Lawley–Hotelling statistics. We also derive the corresponding results in the situation where interest lies in coincidence and flatness alone. Accuracy of all the asymptotic expansions in approximating the exact null distributions is examined via simulation. Profile analysis of SO₄ concentrations from a forestry experiment is used to illustrate the methods.     

Small-sample comparisons for powerdivergence goodness-of-fit statistics for symmetric and skewed simple null hypotheses

Power-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics have asymptotically a chi-squared distribution. Asymptotic results may not apply in small-sample situations, and the exact significance of a goodness-of-fit statistic may potentially be over- or under-stated by the asymptotic distribution. Several correction terms have been proposed to improve the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution, but their performance has only been studied for the equiprobable case. We extend that research to skewed hypotheses. Results are presented for one-way multinomials involving k = 2 to 6 cells with sample sizes N = 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 and nominal test sizes f = 0.1, 0.05, 0.01 and 0.001. Six power-divergence goodness-of-fit statistics were investigated, and five correction terms were included in the study. Our results show that skewness itself does not affect the accuracy of the asymptotic approximation, which depends only on the magnitude of the smallest expected frequency (whether this comes from a small sample with the equiprobable hypothesis or a large sample with a skewed hypothesis). Throughout the conditions of the study, the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution seems to be optimal for Pearson's X² statistic (the power-divergence statistic of index u = 1) when k > 3 and the smallest expected frequency is as low as between 0.1 and 1.5 (depending on the particular k, N and nominal test size), but a computationally inexpensive improvement can be obtained in these cases by using a moment-corrected h² distribution. If the smallest expected frequency is even smaller, a normal correction yields accurate tests through the log-likelihood-ratio statistic G² (the power-divergence statistic of index u = 0).     

A new ranked set sampling protocol for the signed rank test

In this paper, we construct a new ranked set sampling protocol that maximizes the Pitman asymptotic efficiency of the signed rank test. The new sampling design is a function of the set size and independent order statistics. If the set size is odd and the underlying distribution is symmetric and unimodal, then the new sampling protocol quantifies only the middle observation. On the other hand, if the set size is even, the new sampling design quantifies the two middle observations. This data collection procedure for use in the signed rank test outperforms the data collection procedure in the standard ranked set sample. We show that the exact null distribution of the signed rank statistic W_RSS⁺ based on a data set generated by the new ranked set sample design for odd set sizes is the same as the null distribution of the simple random sample signed rank statistic W_SRS⁺ based on the same number of measured observations. For even set sizes, the exact null distribution of W_RSS⁺ is simulated.     

Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.     

Improved Score Tests in Symmetric Linear Regression Models

The class of symmetric linear regression models has the normal linear regression model as a special case and includes several models that assume that the errors follow a symmetric distribution with longer-than-normal tails. An important member of this class is the t linear regression model, which is commonly used as an alternative to the usual normal regression model when the data contain extreme or outlying observations. In this article, we develop second-order asymptotic theory for score tests in this class of models. We obtain Bartlett-corrected score statistics for testing hypotheses on the regression and the dispersion parameters. The corrected statistics have chi-squared distributions with errors of order O(n ^?3/2), n being the sample size. The corrections represent an improvement over the corresponding original Rao's score statistics, which are chi-squared distributed up to errors of order O(n ^?1). Simulation results show that the corrected score tests perform much better than their uncorrected counterparts in samples of small or moderate size.     

Identifying rational distributed lag models using a joint test applied to the corner table

Often a distributed lag response pattern can be usefully represented in rational polynomial form. When the impulse response function decays, the corner table may be useful for model identification if appropriate statistical tests may be done. One or more joint tests are called for since use of the corner table involves studying groups of its elements. We consider an asymptotic x2 statistic that permits joint tests. We report simulation results showing that the distribution of this statistic follows the x ² distribution, for certain sample sizes and degrees of freedom, well enough to be useful in practice. With two data sets we illustrate how this statistic can be a useful aid when using the corner table.     

Necessary sample sizes for categorial data

This paper deals with the problem how to determine the necessary sample size for the estimation of the parameter π=(π1,...,πk) (πj ≥ 0, Σjπj=1) based on the vector f=(f1,...,fk) of relative frequencies with sample size n. The vector n-f has a multinomial distribution. For a given precision c, 0≤c≤1, and a given confidence number β, 0≤β≤1, there exists a smallest positive integer N⁰=N⁰(β, c, k) with P{|fj−πj|≤c; j=1, ...,k}≥β for all sample sizes n≥N⁰ and for all π. As results are given in this paper exact upper bounds for N⁰ and an improved asymptotical upper bound for N⁰ which is derived from the asymptotical multinormal approximation for the distribution of f.     

Constrained nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimation for mixture models

A nonparametric mixture model specifies that observations arise from a mixture distribution, ∫ f(x, θ) dG(θ), where the mixing distribution G is completely unspecified. A number of algorithms have been developed to obtain unconstrained maximum-likelihood estimates of G, but none of these algorithms lead to estimates when functional constraints are present. In many cases, there is a natural interest in functional ?(G), such as the mean and variance, of the mixing distribution, and profile likelihoods and confidence intervals for ?(G) are desired. In this paper we develop a penalized generalization of the ISDM algorithm of Kalbfleisch and Lesperance (1992) that can be used to solve the problem of constrained estimation. We also discuss its use in various different applications. Convergence results and numerical examples are given for the generalized ISDM algorithm, and asymptotic results are developed for the likelihood-ratio test statistics in the multinomial case.     

First‐order bias correction for fractionally integrated time series

Most of the long memory estimators for stationary fractionally integrated time series models are known to experience non‐negligible bias in small and finite samples. Simple moment estimators are also vulnerable to such bias, but can easily be corrected. In this article, the authors propose bias reduction methods for a lag‐one sample autocorrelation‐based moment estimator. In order to reduce the bias of the moment estimator, the authors explicitly obtain the exact bias of lag‐one sample autocorrelation up to the order n⁻¹. An example where the exact first‐order bias can be noticeably more accurate than its asymptotic counterpart, even for large samples, is presented. The authors show via a simulation study that the proposed methods are promising and effective in reducing the bias of the moment estimator with minimal variance inflation. The proposed methods are applied to the northern hemisphere data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 476–493; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Rényi statistics for testing composite hypotheses in general exponential models

We introduce a family of Rényi statistics of orders r?∈?R for testing composite hypotheses in general exponential models, as alternatives to the previously considered generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistic and generalized Wald statistic. If appropriately normalized exponential models converge in a specific sense when the sample size (observation window) tends to infinity, and if the hypothesis is regular, then these statistics are shown to be χ²-distributed under the hypothesis. The corresponding Rényi tests are shown to be consistent. The exact sizes and powers of asymptotically α-size Rényi, GLR and generalized Wald tests are evaluated for a concrete hypothesis about a bivariate Lévy process and moderate observation windows. In this concrete situation the exact sizes of the Rényi test of the order r?=?2 practically coincide with those of the GLR and generalized Wald tests but the exact powers of the Rényi test are on average somewhat better.     

Estimation of a finite population distribution function based on a linear model with unknown heteroscedastic errors

The authors consider a finite population ρ = {(Y_k, x_k), k = 1,…,N} conforming to a linear superpopulation model with unknown heteroscedastic errors, the variances of which are values of a smooth enough function of the auxiliary variable X for their nonparametric estimation. They describe a method of the Chambers‐Dunstan type for estimation of the distribution of {Y_k, k = 1,…, N} from a sample drawn from without replacement, and determine the asymptotic distribution of its estimation error. They also consider estimation of its mean squared error in particular cases, evaluating both the analytical estimator derived by “plugging‐in” the asymptotic variance, and a bootstrap approach that is also applicable to estimation of parameters other than mean squared error. These proposed methods are compared with some common competitors in simulation studies.     

Testing Serial Correlation in Partially Linear Single-Index Errors-in-Variables Models

In this article, we propose two test statistics for testing the underlying serial correlation in a partially linear single-index model Y = η(Z ^τα) + X ^τβ + ? when X is measured with additive error. The proposed test statistics are shown to have asymptotic normal or chi-squared distributions under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Monte Carlo experiments are also conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistics. The simulation results confirm that these statistics perform satisfactorily in both estimated sizes and powers.     

Nonparametric two-sample tests for dispersion differences based on placements

Two different two-sample tests for dispersion differences based on placement statistics are proposed. The means and variances of the test statistics are derived, and asymptotic normality is established for both. Variants of the proposed tests based on reversing the X and Y labels in the test statistic calculations are shown to have different small-sample properties; for both pairs of tests, one member of the pair will be resolving, the other nonresolving. The proposed tests are similar in spirit to the dispersion tests of both Mood and Hollander; comparative simulation results for these four tests are given. For small sample sizes, the powers of the proposed tests are approximately equal to the powers of the tests of both Mood and Hollander for samples from the normal, Cauchy and exponential distributions. The one-sample limiting distributions are also provided, yielding useful approximations to the exact tests when one sample is much larger than the other. A bootstrap test may alternatively be performed. The proposed test statistics may be used with lightly censored data by substituting Kaplan-Meier estimates for the empirical distribution functions.     

Testing identity of high-dimensional covariance matrix

Two new statistics are proposed for testing the identity of high-dimensional covariance matrix. Applying the large dimensional random matrix theory, we study the asymptotic distributions of our proposed statistics under the situation that the dimension p and the sample size n tend to infinity proportionally. The proposed tests can accommodate the situation that the data dimension is much larger than the sample size, and the situation that the population distribution is non-Gaussian. The numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed tests have good performance on the empirical powers for a wide range of dimensions and sample sizes.     

On the asymptotics of randomness statistics

Kiefer (1959) studied the asymptotics of q-sample Cramér-von Mises nonparametric statistics when q is fixed and the sample sizes tend to infinity. Here we prove the asymptotic normality of such statistics when the sample sizes stay fixed or small while the number of samples, q, becomes large.     

Exact and Monte Carlo calculations of integrated likelihoods for the latent class model

The latent class model or multivariate multinomial mixture is a powerful approach for clustering categorical data. It uses a conditional independence assumption given the latent class to which a statistical unit is belonging. In this paper, we exploit the fact that a fully Bayesian analysis with Jeffreys non-informative prior distributions does not involve technical difficulty to propose an exact expression of the integrated complete-data likelihood, which is known as being a meaningful model selection criterion in a clustering perspective. Similarly, a Monte Carlo approximation of the integrated observed-data likelihood can be obtained in two steps: an exact integration over the parameters is followed by an approximation of the sum over all possible partitions through an importance sampling strategy. Then, the exact and the approximate criteria experimentally compete, respectively, with their standard asymptotic BIC approximations for choosing the number of mixture components. Numerical experiments on simulated data and a biological example highlight that asymptotic criteria are usually dramatically more conservative than the non-asymptotic presented criteria, not only for moderate sample sizes as expected but also for quite large sample sizes. This research highlights that asymptotic standard criteria could often fail to select some interesting structures present in the data.