Foreign-Born Emigration From The United States: 1960 To 1970

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.     

Provisional evaluation of the 1970 census count of American Indians

Estimates of the American Indian population under 20 years of age on April I, 1970, based on birth and death statistics for a 20-year period, show a possible net undercount of 6.9 percent for this age group in the 1970 census. However, for some particular ages the estimates indicate net overcounts in the census. Likewise, the net increase of the entire American Indian population as measured by the difference between the 1960 and 1970 censuses is 67,000 greater than the natural increase for the decade. Detailed analysis of cohort data with respect to the possible causes of the differences between the estimates and the census figures indicate that a portion of the estimated net overcounts can be attributed to classification, as well as coverage, problems. The estimated net overcounts offer support for the hypothesis that many individuals who were registered as white at birth and who were counted as white in the 1960 census shifted their racial self-identification from white to American Indian during the 1960s.     

New midyear age-sex-color-specific estimates of the U.S. population for the 1940s and 1950s: including a revision of coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses

This paper describes new midyear (July 1) estimates of the "true" population of the United States by age, sex, and color (white, nonwhite) for the 1940s and 1950s. It also presents the corresponding implied coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses. The new population estimates are calculated by combining the most recent figures on the 1960 population with estimates of the demographic components of change for the 1950s and 1940s in an iterative reverse cohort-component projection algorithm. Among the principal findings of the new estimates are: (a) existing midyear estimates of the "true" population in the 1950s are 450,000 to 500,000 too high; (b) existing age-specific estimates for the 1950s tend to underestimate the population at the older ages (55 years and over) and overestimate the population in the young and middle adult years (15 to 54 years); (c) estimates of the "true" population in the 1940s were too low except for nonwhites at ages 65 and over; (d) existing estimates of percentage net undercount and underenumeration for the 1950 and 1940 censuses tend to be too high, substantially so for nonwhites in the 1940 Census; and (e) nonwhites were more completely enumerated in 1940 than in 1950. Thus, in addition to being methodologically and temporally consistent with post-1960 estimates, the new population estimates described here imply some substantial revisions in demographic, social, and economic statistics for the two decades prior to 1960.     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.     

Residential Segregation in the Mid-Sixties

Special censuses conducted by the Bureau of the Census at the request and expense of local governments provide current statistics for many large cities which are compared with corresponding data from the1960 Census. An analysis was made of the changes in the racial composition of the cities, and of the areas within the cities (defined by census tracts) which had a high concentration of Negro population in 1960 for ten cities of 100,000 or more population at mid-decade.As in the 1950-60 period, Negroes continue to move into the central cities of metropolitan areas while white persons continue to move out to the suburbs at a faster rate, and this results in net declines in the populations of the cities. The proportion of nonwhite persons living in areas of high Negro concentration has remained about the same or increased slightly in a majority of the cities, while in a few (such as Cleveland, Rochester, and Raleigh) this proportion has declined; that is, relatively more Negroes in these cities now live outside the ghetto neighborhoods. When the racial composition of the ghettos is examined, however, a higher proportion of the residents are now Negro when compared to 1960 in each of the ten cities.Thus, the concentration of Negroes in ghetto areas has shown little change, but the trend of white persons moving away from the Negro neighborhoods, either to other parts of the cities or to the suburbs, has increased sharply, and this has tended to polarize the Negro and white populations within large cities.     

Evaluation of estimates of underenumeration in the census and the age pattern of mortality,philadelphia, 1880

The schedule of mortality by age for Philadelphia's 1880 population classified by sex and race showed aberrations from Coale and Demeny West, South, and North model life tables. Deviations from standard age patterns of mortality were especially pronounced for the black population. The question addressed in this paper is whether the alternative age patterns of mortality are produced by underenumeration in the 1880 census or by actual variations in the age-specific mortality experience. The conclusion was reached that the underenumeration of the urban population, especially the blacks, exceeds estimates for the national population. In addition, the results indicated that the black population faced risks of dying that genuinely differed from standard age patterns. An attempt to use a Brass logit model to generalize the black mortality experience met with success for females but not for males.     

Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence

Data from the 1975 Current Population Survey confirm that, during 1970–1975, there was a reversal of the traditional net migration stream between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. During this period, there was net in-migration of 1,600,000 persons to nonmetropolitan areas, in contrast to net out-migration of 350,000 persons from these areas in 1965–1970. Reversal was caused by a 12 percent decrease in the number of nonmetropolitan out-migrants and a 23 percent increase in the number of SMSA residents moving to nonmetropolitan territory over 1965–1970 levels. While some changes in the size of migration streams were due to changes in age structures and population bases in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, they were caused primarily by real shifts in outmigration propensities at practically all ages in both areas.     

Is Nonmetropolitan America being repopulated? The evidence from Pennsylvania’s minor civil divisions

We analyze population change and net migration, by age and sex, from 1940 to 1970, for 1,834 Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania Minor Civil Divisions (MCD's) classified by residence, population potential, socioeconomic status, and distance from metropolitan centers. Our analysis indicates, as expected, reconcentration of residents from both urban and remoter nonmetropolitan localities into exurban peripheries 25 to 35 miles for metropolitan centers. Since 1960, however, a "turnaround" appears in many truly rural tracts, which have been experiencing an influx or retention of persons 35 years of age and older. Statistical explanations are strongest for males in poor, isolated places, weakest for more accessible, socioeconomically advanced places and their female inhabitants. Throughout the study period and area, nonurban MCD's register more positively than the rural.     

What is the annual net flow of undocumented mexican immigrants to the united states?

Senior government officials have claimed that in recent years an average of 1.4 million illegal aliens have entered the United States annually without apprehension. This conjectural figure does not take into account the fact that the net flow of immigrants is always less than the gross flow. In this paper, seven estimates are made concerning the net flow of undocumented Mexican immigrants to the United States in the period 1970--1975. These estimates are based on the growth of the population of Mexican origin according to the Current Population Survey. According to these estimates the annual net flow ranged from 82,300 to 232,400 persons.     

Estimating the approximate size of the illegal alien population in the united states by the comparative trend analysis of age-specific death rates

This paper presents the results of an attempt to determine, through the use of demographic analysis, the approximate magnitude of the resident illegal alien population in the United States. The method described is the comparative analysis of trends in age-specific death rates in the United States and selected States, 1950 to 1975. The procedure depends on two assumptions: (a) that few or no illegal aliens are included in decennial census counts or current population estimates; and (b) that the reported statistics on deaths include deaths to all or nearly all illegal aliens. If the illegal alien population has increased by several million since 1970, then death rates in geographic areas where illegal aliens are most concentrated should show substantial excesses over the rates for the remainder of the country. A roughly similar downward trend in the death rates of all age groups since 1970 in all areas of the United States is apparent and hence does not support the view that many millions of illegal residents (perhaps over 6 million) are living here. However, the finding of a persistent deviation in the death rate trend for 10 selected States since 1960 for whites males, ages 20 to 44, and for no other group, suggests that the deaths of illegal aliens are being recorded in our vital statistics system. A range of estimates of the illegal alien population based on this analysis is presented and compared with the results of other studies.     

components of change in the number of households: 1970–1980

There was an increase from 62.8 to 79.1 million households in the United States during the 1970s. The number of households increased much more rapidly than the population. This paper decomposes this growth in the number of households into components associated with changing age and marital status composition and changing age by marital status-specific propensities to form households. About one-third of the increase in the number of households was due to increased age by marital status propensity to form households, and two-thirds was due to shifts in the age by marital status distribution and population growth. The increased propensity to form households had its major impact at ages under 35, and primarily among never-married persons. The composition component had its primary impact at ages 25–44 as a result of the baby boom, and also because of the increased fractions never married and separated and divorced.     

Transfer programs and aggregate household formations

The number of households in the United States increased by over fifty percent in the 1960s and 1970s, nearly double the rate of population growth. Part of the increase is explained by the movement of large cohort groups of the population into prime household-forming age categories, but higher headship rates also contribute. Age-specific headship rate increases result from non-demographic factors, and this paper focuses on the role of government transfer payment programs. Specifically considered are Social Security, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, and Food Stamps. These programs are found to have accounted for as many as 4 million net household formations between 1961 and 1984. The findings have implications for expected households formations in the 1990s.     

Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages

Mortality data for 30 mostly developed countries available in the Kannisto–Thatcher Database on Old‐Age Mortality (KTDB) are drawn on to assess the pace of decline in death rates at ages 80 years and above. As of 2004 this database recorded 37 million persons at these ages, including 130,000 centenarians (more than double the number in 1990). For men, the probability of surviving from age 80 to age 90 has risen from 12 percent in 1950 to 26 percent in 2002; for women, the increase has been from 16 percent to 38 percent. In the lowest‐mortality country, Japan, life expectancy at age 80 in 2006 is estimated to be 6.5 years for men and 11.3 years for women. For selected countries, average annual percent declines in age‐specific death rates over the preceding ten years are calculated for single‐year age groups 80 to 99 and the years 1970 to 2004. The results are presented in Lexis maps showing the patterns of change in old‐age mortality by cohort and period, and separately for men and women. The trends are not favorable in all countries: for example, old‐age mortality in the United States has stagnated since 1980. But countries with exceptionally low mortality, like Japan and France, do not show a deceleration in death rate declines. It is argued that life expectancy at advanced ages may continue to increase at the same pace as in the past.     

Plans for the 1970 census of population and housing

The Nineteenth Decennial Census of the United States, covering both population and housing, will be conducted as of April 1, 1970. Planning, testing, and preparatory activities have been underway since early in the decade. Extensive discussions with users of census data led to relatively minor changes in subject content as compared to 1960, but a major increase in the amount of statistics to be tabulated, especially for small geographic areas. For about 60 to 65 percent of the population, the information will be collected through a new mail-out/mail-back system. The rest of the country will be covered by house-to-house canvass. Special efforts to alleviate the serious problem of underenumeration are being undertaken, particularly in the hard-to-enumerate portions of the big cities. The geographic program includes an “address coding guide” through which location identification in most urban areas can be made to specific side of block; this will permit tabulations for new types of small areas. Processing of the data will be performed with the Census Bureau’s Fosdic equipment and advanced computers. Dissemination of the census results will be in the traditional type of printed reports but also, in substantially greater subject and area detail, through magnetic tape, special printouts, etc. To help users exploit the potentialities of the latter material, the Bureau has instituted a “data access” informational program. As in previous censuses, there will be a number of studies to evaluate the 1970 procedures and results.     

The completeness of enumeration in the 1973 census of the population of Colombia

The effort is made to determine the true size and distribution by age and sex of the population of the Republic of Colombia in October 1973. After initially arriving at estimates of the levels of fertility and mortality during the intercensal period and then correcting the 1964 census population for age misreporting and selective undernumeration of males, a hypothetical populaiton corresponding to October 1973 is constructed. Comparing the constructed population with the population observed in the census yelds an estimate of completeness of enumeration in 1973 that is relative to the enumeration of females in 1964. This estimate is obtained under the assumption that net international migration during the period was of negligible importance. As there is reason to believe that this is not a valid assumption and upon examining the limited amount of evidence available, speculaitons are made concerning the amount of net out-migration to have occurred during the 1964-1973 period and the size of the coresponding modificaiton in the estimate of completeness of enumeration. After adjusting for underenumeration of males in 1964 and neglecting the impact of international migration, a theoretical 1973 census population of 23,201,000 was estimated. Apart from the total number of people enumerated, the information that was analyzed from the advance sample appears to be of good quality, at least in relation to prior censuses. The estimates of fertility and mortality reveal an important decline in Colombian fertility. By coming up with separate estimates of infant and childhood and adult mortality, it has been possible to shed new light on the shape and the level of mortality in Colombia. The new Brass method for estimating adult mortality provides reliable results even when mortality has been declining, and there are recognizable distortions in the distribution of the population by age.     

State population and household estimates,with age,sex, and components of change: 1981-87

This report contains provisional US state estimates of 1) the resident and civilian populations and of households for July 1, 1987, 2) revised annual population and household estimates for July 1, 1981-1986, and 3) components of population change for the 1980-1987 period. Also shown are annual age estimates and median age of the resident population of states, 1981-1987, by sex for 10-year age groups and selected broad age groups. Florida passed Pennsylvania to become the 4th most populous state in 1987, ranking behind California, New York, and Texas. Alaska and Louisiana both registered population losses for the 1st time this decade, while West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Wyoming again had population declines. Several agriculture-based states--Iowa, North Dakota, and Nebraska--marked another year of population declines. California and Florida each gained more than 2 million persons through net immigration since 1980, and Texas over 1.2 million. The 25-44 year-olds are the most rapidly growing age group in the 1980s, increasing by 23.8%. This age group now constitutes almost 1/3 (31.9%) of the US population. US median age continues to climb upward, increasing from 30 years in 1980 to 32.1 years in 1987. The Northeast continues as the region with the highest median age (33.7) and the highest proportion of elderly (13.5% aged 65 and over). Largely because of changes in the age structure, households increased faster than the total population from 1980-1987 (12% versus 7.4%). The 4 states that lost population between 1980 and 1987--Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and West Virginia--all had increases in households during the same period. While the Northeast and Midwest together accounted for only 10.8% of national population growth in the 1980-1987 period, they accounted for 26.9% of the national increase in households. California, Texas, and Florida accounted for 52.4% of national population growth from 1980 to 1987, but only for 36.5% of household growth.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.     

Demographics and housing in America

Family-building needs of the "nesting" generation and its offspring, the baby boomers born 1947-1964, dominated post-World War 2 housing demand and production to 1970. Centered on tract-house suburbia, annual housing starts averaged 1.5 million a year in the 1950s and 1960s. With growing real median family incomes, the average size of new dwellings increased and 63% of households owned their homes by 1970, compared to 44% in 1940. The baby boomers' arrival at the ages of household formation sparked the "Golden Housing Age" of the 1970s. Net household increase averaged a record 1.7 million a year and 19 million year-round dwellings were added to the national inventory compared to 11 million in the 1950s and 1960s, despite a plunge in housing starts during the 1974-75 recession. Real median family income declined after 1973 and inflation escalated housing costs but at the same time fueled demand for housing as an investment hedge against inflation. The singles and "mingles" life styles of youthful baby boomers boosted rental housing, condominiums, and compact townhouses. Married-couple households dropped from 74% of the total in 1960 to 58% in 1975. Household formation and housing starts dropped drastically with the 1980-82 recession but bounced back as the economy recovered in 1983-85 and restrained inflation braked housing cost rises. Projections show overall household increases reduced to barely a million a year in 1990-95, with renter household gains at just 175,000, compared to 1/2 a million a year in the 1970s, as the household-formation ages of 18-34 are taken over by the baby bust generation. This will be offset by the baby boomers' maturing into middle age. By 1995 most of the giant generation will be in the peak-earning, high-homeownership ages of 35-54. Married-couple households in this age bracket will account for 56% of the household gain from 1983 to 1995, boosting national affluence and the demand for upscale housing, likely to be located in the suburbs.     

The effect of undercount on the accuracy of small-area population estimates: Implications for the use of administrative data for improving population enumeration

The effects of underenumeration on the accuracy of alternative methods of population estimation have not been sufficiently analyzed. Although the US Bureau of the Census has decided not to adjust either the counts or its estimates for underenumeration in 1990, the extent to which local population estimates may account for underenumeration is of importance both for those who may wish to adjust existing estimates and in anticipation of future census adjustments. This paper examines the accuracy of small-area population estimation methods with and without adjustment. Mean Percent Errors, Mean Absolute Percent Errors, and Mean Percent Absolute Differences between local estimates for 1990 and 1990 adjusted and unadjusted census counts are computed. Population estimates for 1990 made using housing unit, ratio correlation, and component methods are compared for 451 counties and 2,633 places in the states of California, Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin. An analysis of the data for counties shows little indication that local estimates more accurately estimate the adjusted than the unadjusted population counts. The results for places show clear improvements in accuracy for places in Florida and Texas. Implications of the findings for issues related to undercount adjustment and local population estimates are discussed.