Belief elicitation in the presence of na?ve respondents: An experimental study

It is often of interest to elicit beliefs from populations that may include na?ve participants. Unfortunately, elicitation mechanisms are typically assessed by assuming optimal responses to incentives. Using laboratory experiments with a population that potentially includes na?ve participants, we compare the performance of two elicitation mechanisms proposed by Karni (Econometrica 77(2):603-606, 2009). These mechanisms, denoted as “declarative” and “clock,” are valuable because their incentive compatibility does not require strong assumptions such as risk neutrality or expected utility maximization. We show that, theoretically and empirically, with a sufficient fraction of na?ve participants, the clock mechanism elicits beliefs more accurately than the declarative. The source of this accuracy advantage is twofold: the clock censors na?ve responses, and participants are more likely to employ dominant strategies under the clock. Our findings hold practical value to anyone interested in eliciting beliefs from representative populations, a goal of increasing importance when conducting large-scale surveys or field experiments.     

Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory

This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.

Do we need a theory of demographic transition?

The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.     

Why do people prefer randomisation? An experimental investigation

Theory and Decision - Increasingly, experimental economists, when eliciting risk preferences using a set of pairwise-choice problems (between two risky lotteries A and B), have given subjects a...     

How would you like your gain in life expectancy to be provided? An experimental approach

This paper reports the results of an empirical study investigating people’s preferences over three different types of perturbation to their survival function, each perturbation generating the same gain in life expectancy. Preferences over the three different perturbations were found to be distributed more or less evenly across the subject pool. Use of a novel experimental methodology generated economically consistent and intuitively plausible responses to (necessarily) hypothetical questions concerning improvements in life expectancy by first allowing respondents to gain experience while making similar choices in an incentivized setting involving financial risk. The results demonstrate the potential for economic experiments to contribute to the development of more robust methods for policy evaluation in domains where physical risk is an important factor.     

How to support families of children with disabilities? An exploratory study of social support services

Support services to families of children with disabilities have previously been documented. While the effectiveness and consequences of some support strategies have been defined, their comparison remains problematic primarily because of the diversified existing definitions. The present study aimed to elaborate and validate a typology to describe different types of support that can be offered to families of children with disabilities. A review of literature highlighted a variety of support services and allowed a categorical grouping. Content analysis ensured that each category was defined distinctively. Afterwards, a panel of experts and representatives of organizations from seven developed countries (Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Sweden and Switzerland) validated the typology. A database of services offered in these countries was created. The resulting typology was divided into four categories related to the family needs: support, respite, child minding and emergency support. Each type of support can be illustrated within organizations in the database. As such, social workers can use the defined typology to identify the needs of families of children with disabilities and suggest alternatives when services are not available. Overall, the described typology should facilitate discussion between stakeholders and families by providing a common communication system.     

Do young generations save for retirement? Ensuring financial security of Gen Z and Gen Y

Concerns about the population aging and global trends to shift more responsibility for future retirement from the state to the individual need policy planning to increase youth's savings for retirement. The study aims to identify behavioral, financial, demographic, and educational determinants of savings for retirement in two groups of young adults with reference to people aged 50–60. The binary logit model and pairwise comparison results showed that the probability of saving for retirement increases with age and responsibility fosters saving behavior among young adults. The observed differences allow the formulation of policy recommendations adapted to the preferences of generations Z and Y.     

Do the regulatory standards require religious literacy of U.K. health and social care professionals?

Health and social care professionals need sufficient religious literacy in order to handle the complexities of religious beliefs and practices, including the growing numbers who identify with other belief systems and those who claim to identify with no religion. The extent to which the need for religious literacy has been formalized was examined in an analysis of regulatory frameworks for health and social care professionals in the United Kingdom. Although all but one of the regulators make some reference to religion and beliefs, they are silent on the question as to what is meant by religion and beliefs. Some standards include a requirement not to impose one's own beliefs on others, but there is very little requirement to develop a reflective and self‐critical awareness of one's own stance. Likewise, some standards refer to knowledge and skills required, but greater specificity is required for these to be meaningful.     

Probability weighting and the ‘level’ and ‘spacing’ of outcomes: An experimental study over losses

The main goal of the experimental study described in this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of probability weighting to the payoff structure of the gambling situation—namely the level of consequences at stake and the spacing between them—in the loss domain. For that purpose, three kinds of gambles are introduced: two kinds of homogeneous gambles (involving either small or large losses), and heterogeneous gambles involving both large and small losses. The findings suggest that at least for moderate/high probability of loss do both ‘level’ and ‘spacing’ effects reach significance, with the impact of ‘spacing’ being both opposite to and stronger than the impact of ‘level’. As compared to small-loss gambles, large-loss gambles appear to enhance probabilistic optimism, while heterogeneous gambles tend to increase pessimism.

Do ‘child‐friendly’ countries contribute to child satisfaction? A comparative study of OECD countries

Child‐friendliness is a new concept in the research literature. Derived from the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, it assesses different nations’ commitment to the aspects of children’s rights: both self‐determination and nurturance and care. Since the concept is still in its infancy, there is a need to study the associations between child‐friendliness and the subjective well‐being of children in a comparative perspective. Accordingly, the present study compares country rankings in the Child‐Friendliness Index (CFI) with country scores in the Global Domain Satisfaction Index (GDSI) in a sample of ten OECD countries. Results show that there is no association between the adapted GDSI score and the CFI. However, the self‐determination sub‐index and specifically participation in the personal domain are found correlated with GDSI domains. Moreover, countries can be grouped into different clusters: Nordic, Mediterranean, European, Asian. Key Practitioner Message: ? There was no apparent association between the adapted GDSI score and the Child‐Friendliness Index (CFI) rank; ? The CFI self‐determination sub‐index and participation in the personal domain specifically were found to be correlated with GDSI domains; ? Countries may be grouped into different clusters when looking at their GDSI score and CFI rank: Nordic, Mediterranean, European, Asian.     

Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland

This paper provides empirical evidence of the role of the euro in the genesis of the recent Irish financial-economic crisis. By using a Taylor rule we measure the appropriateness of the ECB’s one-size-fits-all policy rate for the Irish economy. A counterfactual analysis suggests that the Irish interest rate should have been on average 6.5% higher. Using a BVAR and multivariate housing model, we provide econometric evidence that under an alternative sovereign monetary policy, the average house price would have been 25–30% lower just before the housing bust. In addition, it shows that a monetary policy tailored to the needs of the member state prevents housing prices from dramatically increasing.     

Do political instability,financial instability and environmental degradation undermine growth? Evidence from belt and road initiative countries

This study investigates the extent to which political instability (PI), financial instability (FI), and environmental degradation undermine economic complexity (EC). EC is more predictive of future growth and development patterns and correlates with the increased ability to create and export a wide variety of sophisticated (high productivity) items. Using data from up to 56 BRI nations, I routinely obtain precise estimates of the negative effect of PI and FI on EC. Further, we examined the indirect effect of PI and FI through the channel of human capital (HC). These findings confirm the core premise that institutional stability largely influences economic complexity by encouraging creative entrepreneurship, HC accumulation, and allocating human resources to productive activities. Moreover, we examined the indirect effect of PI and FI through the channel of CO₂ emissions. These findings support the idea that countries with stable institutions can reduce pollution and protect the environment. It could increase economic complexity while reducing environmental degradation. The main findings support the creation of a pro-development institutional framework that enhance environmental sustainability and reduces poverty by increasing economic complexity.     

Do healthy diets in Europe matter to the environment? A quantitative analysis

Final consumption of food products figures amongst the strongest contributors to negative environmental impacts in Europe, with the production of beef and pork at agricultural level being the main responsible part of the food supply chain. This article analyses quantitatively the environmental impact of changing European diets. The environmental impact of European consumption is determined with an environmental extended input-output analysis, supplemented by a partial equilibrium model reflecting changes of the agricultural sector to modified diets. It results that agricultural production does not decrease significantly in reaction to reduced food consumption, due to a changed trade balance and substitution effects.     

Why Do the Privileged Resort to Oppression? A Look at Some Intragroup Factors

This article shows that (intergroup) oppression can be strategically motivated by (intragroup) processes. It is often assumed that high-status groups oppress when their social position is declining (relative deprivation). Counterintuitively, research shows that oppression also occurs when their position is improving (gratification): a curvilinear relationship referred to as "the v-curve effect." We test the hypothesis that this relationship is due to intragroup processes within the high-status group: individuals respond strategically to elite norms. Two experiments manipulated participants' future prospects: to join the nation's elite in future (relative gratification), social stasis, or status decline (relative deprivation, Study 2). Elite norms toward immigrants (positive, negative) were manipulated independently. The curvilinear relationship was only found when norms were negative. In other words, those who anticipate joining the elite tailor their actions to the norms of their prospective in-group.     

Commitment of Private and Public Agency Workers to Child Welfare: How Long Do They Plan to Stay?

ABSTRACT

Method: Child welfare professionals completing training to work in foster care were asked about reasons for taking their child welfare position, commitment to their agencies, and commitment to child welfare. Analyses compared responses from new public agency foster care workers (N = 100), public agency workers making lateral transfers to foster care (N = 64), and new private foster care workers (N = 105).

Results: Private agency foster care workers were less committed to their agencies and to child welfare and more likely to have taken the position because it was the only one available.

Conclusions: The practice by public child welfare of outsourcing foster care services to private agencies needs to be evaluated. This practice may not benefit children in care and may create organizational problems for agencies.