香港地区家庭住户结构变迁的探讨

过去几十年,香港家庭住户结构发生了很大变化,其主要特征为小规模的核心家庭化趋向。这些变化与生育、死亡、迁移以及婚姻行为等人口因素的变动息息相关。文章采用人口学的方法对香港家庭住户的结构变迁以及相应的人口过程进行了探讨,分析人口因素在香港家庭住户变迁中所发挥的作用。     

人口生育政策变迁与初婚风险——基于CFPS2010年调查数据

本文运用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)2010年数据,建立Cox比例风险模型,分析自新中国成立以来我国生育政策变迁对人口初婚模式的影响。研究发现,20世纪七八十年代的生育政策变迁对当期个体的初婚风险具有重要影响且存在着年龄差异与性别差异,在剔除队列效应后,影响依然存在。在我国,初婚年龄并非"直线"上升的,而是伴随着生育政策的调整发生波动。国家权力和国家政策的介入深刻地影响了我国人口的初婚行为。     

孩子质量数量替代与持续低生育率

人口的生育行为和生育率主要取决于两个方面，即宏观社会经济条件和微观家庭生育决策与生育行为。前者对生育率的变化起着决定性、根本性的影响，后者则是生育率波动的微观基础。与此同时，这两个方面存在着相互联系、相互作用的密切关系。首先，宏观社会经济条件决定家庭...     

中国的婚居模式与生育行为

本文使用1993、1997和2000年“中国健康与营养调查”纵向追踪数据,探讨在社会转型、经济转轨、人口转变的社会环境下,婚姻居住模式或家庭结构与生育行为之间的关系。运用事件史分析技术(event history analysis),采用离散时间事件模型(discrete time hazard model),我们发现,居住模式影响妇女的生育行为,但其影响因孩次和居住制度而异:对二孩递进的作用大于对一孩递进的影响;从妻居对生育行为的影响不同于从夫居。家庭结构与生育行为的关系反映了代际之间的互动和影响,也反映了不同居住制度下妇女在家庭、家族中的地位和家庭权力结构关系。     

农村家庭功能对人口生育率增长的作用

<正> 家庭是社会的细胞。家庭人口的变化,直接影响着社会人口的变化。而家庭人口的变化,又主要受家庭功能变化作用的影响。因此,要全面了解和掌握人口过程的社会规律,就必须了解和掌握家庭功能对人口生育率变动的影响作用。一、农村家庭的生产功能对人口生育率增长的作用所谓家庭的生产功能,是指在家庭范围内组织并创造物质财富的功能。农村实行“双包”责任制后,家庭在管理形式上成为一个独立的经济单位,农业生产中的一切活     

理性与非理性的家庭生育行为

人口控制的关键是对家庭生育行为的控制。家庭生育行为控制除了受社会、经济、文化、节育技术等因素的支配和影响外,同时也取决于家庭夫妇双方对计划生育政策的接受程度,对各种生育因素影响作用的反映弹性和行为态度。在接受程度、反     

中国农民家庭收支变动与生育行为分析

<正> 农民家庭收支的变动是家庭经济变动的主要内容,它影响着农民的消费追求,改变着农民的生活方式和子女的价值观。随着农民家庭收入的增加,消费从传统模式向现代模式的转变,农民从追求消费数量转向追求生活质量,从而引起价值观和生育观的变化,促进了农村人口生育行为的转变。一、农民家庭收入和生活消费支出与生育行为在家庭收入不断增加的过程中,对人口生育行为有促进和抑制两种截然相反的作用。在家庭收入从某一贫困的低水平开始增加阶段,收入的增加改善了农民家庭基本生活条件,温饱逐步得到基本解决。一方面,由于营养和健康状况的改善、妇女的生育能力也将有所提高,育龄期也会有所延长,另一方面,人均收入的提高则会削弱对维持温饱商品的限制,既增强了家庭的抚养能力,又刺激了家庭增加劳动力的要求进而达到提高收入的愿望。因此,当家庭收入处于从某一低水平增加的初级阶段往往会刺激农民家     

乡村—城镇人口迁移对人口自然变动的影响及估测

<正> 农村人口向城镇地区集聚的过程,不仅影响着城乡两地的社会经济发展,也影响着两地人口的变动。就其对人口变动的影响而言,乡村——城镇人口迁移不仅直接影响到城乡两地的人口增长速度和人口空间的再分布过程,也影响着城乡人口年龄、性別等构成的变动。更为重要的是,迁移还直接影响迁移人口的生育观念和生育行为,从而更进一步地影响到妇女生育水平的变化和总人口的变动。随着乡村——城镇人口迁移规模的扩大,它对人口变动的影响也日趋显著,本文仅就乡村城镇人口迁移影响妇女生育水平,进而影响总人口变动这一方面,进行分析探讨。     

人口与生育政策变动对代际关系的影响

人口与生育政策直接影响着人们的生育需求和生育观念 ,不同的政策有不同的生育动机 ,所追求的孩子数量、质量也不一样 ,从而导致父母与子女之间的代际关系各异。本文以 1 973年为界论述了我国 1 973年前后的人口与生育政策变化及生育观念的转变对代际关系的影响     

婚姻质量对多孩生育意向及生育二孩打算的影响北大核心CSSCI

婚姻质量指人们婚姻关系的状况,是人们对婚姻中获得的满足感和生活福利的评价。婚姻质量对人们生育意愿和生育行为产生影响。婚姻质量较高的人口具有更高的平均期望生育数量。在已经生育了一孩的家庭中,婚姻质量对多孩生育意向有积极影响,特别是对女性、年龄为35岁以下、城镇户籍、东部地区、教育程度较高的人口具有影响。婚姻质量影响多孩生育意向的实现,有助于将多孩生育意向转化为具体的生育行为。对于那些已经生育了一孩且具有二孩及以上的多孩生育意向的人口,婚姻质量越高,其生育二孩可能性越大。这在不同性别、不同年龄段、不同地区的人口群体中具有普遍性,并在城镇户籍人口、教育程度较高人口中表现出影响。区别于多数研究从成本收益的理性计算分析人口的生育,本研究表明作为婚姻质量重要指标的"爱情"会影响人口的生育意愿和生育行为。人类的生育不仅包含着功利性的理性计算,还受到感情的影响。良好的婚姻家庭生活有助于提高多孩生育的意向,也能够促进多孩生育意向转化为生育二孩的行为。     

人口素质的家庭影响因素分析

家庭是个体社会化的重要场所。家庭背景、家庭结构、家庭关系以及家庭教育等方面对人口素质有着不容忽视的影响 ,在当前家庭发生巨大变革的背景下 ,家庭变迁与人口素质呈动态关系 ,优化家庭因素对提高人口素质具有实践意义。     

深圳流动育龄妇女生育子女数的影响因素分析

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据,设计了4个模型,分别从不同角度对生育子女数、初婚初育、初婚二孩生育和初婚三孩生育的影响因素进行了多因素分析。研究结果表明,早婚和多育之间有正相关关系,它和生育意愿有一定的关联。生育意愿对生育行为的影响是非线性的,它对三孩生育的影响最强。经济收入水平对生育行为的影响很复杂,收入水平提高产生的短期效果可能是促进生育率增长。     

The impact of changes in the marital status on return migration of family migrants

Many migrants have non-labour motives to migrate, and they differ substantially from labour migrants in their migration behaviour. For family migrants, the decision to return is highly influenced by changes in their marital status. Using administrative panel data on the entire population of recent family immigrants to the Netherlands, we estimate the effect of a divorce and remarriage on the hazard of leaving the Netherlands using a ‘timing of events’ model. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across the migration, the divorce and remarriage processes. The family migrants are divided into five groups based on the Human Development Index (HDI) of their country of birth. We find that both divorce and remarriage increase return of family migrants from less-developed countries. Remarriage of family migrants from developed countries makes them more prone to stay. Young migrants are influenced most by a divorce. The impact of the timing of a divorce and remarriage on return is quantified graphically.     

出生人口性别比失衡的社会因素分析

由于生育政策对生育子女数量的规定,多生和早生受到了限制。因此,在我国传统生育意愿的作用下,它强化了个体生育者的性别选择意识,其行为结果表现为出生人口性别比的失衡;同时,由于农村和城镇在经济医疗条件上的差别,使得两者在计划生育管理和服务上也出现了差异。这些差异对出生子女性别比的影响通过其地区差异、孩次差异、城乡差异表现出来。     

The dynamics of contraceptive adoption in Bohol,Philippines: 1976-1978

A researcher analyzed 1976 and 1978 data on 414 rural women who had never used a family planning method to prevent pregnancy and lived in the predominantly Catholic island province of Bohol in the Philippines to look at the influence certain aspects of the family planning program, begun in 1976, as predictors of changes in contraceptive behavior. 34.5% accepted contraception between 1976-1978. The researchers learned that couple traits (e.g., age, income, education, and religiosity) had only an indirect effect on change in contraceptive behavior. A desire to stop, limit, or space births (motivation) was a strong predictor of family planning method acceptance (p.001). Further couples who clinic providers contacted the most often or who had received more family planning services (services) were much more likely to use contraceptives (p.001). Indeed a significant relationship existed between motivation and services (p.001). Moreover couples who were truly motivated to use family planning methods did not let distance to family planning services prevent them from seeking these services (p.001). On the other hand, couples who confronted personal obstacles to family planning including social, psychological, and other subjective costs (cost index) tended not to accept family planning methods (p.001). A negative association existed between services and location of households vis a vis the intervention program (p.001) which indicated that the program did have an effect in the area of the province where it was located. In conclusion, the strongest predictors of change in contraceptive behavior included motivation, services, and cost index. Services and cost index indicated the great importance of interpersonal and/or client staff contact, especially since they were more important in influencing behavior change than distance and family planning site.     

Preliminary achievements of China's national economy development and family planning]

A preliminary view of the population control policies of the People's Republic of China is the subject of this report. The report maintains that population control policies are closely linked to economic growth and indicates that criticism by the West of these policies is unfounded. According to an investigation of 1000 married women of child-bearing age carried out in 1981, 19.1% of them have 1 child, 21.4% of them have 2, 49.5% have 3 and only 9.9% of them have no children. This would seem to refute the West's idea of the "1 child only" policy as strict and clear-cut. The report maintains that economic growth and family planning are functions of one another. Although China has made marked progress in population control, its population problem is still far from being resolved as population growth is still relatively high compared to productivity. The marriageable population is extremely high and increase in population create a burden on education, employment, transportation, welfare, housing and medicine each year. The trend in rural areas (which make up 80% of China's population) to have larger families to produce more labor must be reversed in order to make population control objectives feasible. Thus, the need for China to continue its efforts to promote rural economy and family planning must continue. The needs for improvement in promotion and family planning education as well as for improved medical conditions are also evident.     

关于地方性流动人口计划生育管理法规的几点探讨

中国的流动人口计划生育法规的制定是地方性法规先行,全国性的法规在后。在法规建设中各地方法规之间存在一些需要协调的问题,地方性法规在可操作性上也存在一些问题,对流动人口计划生育管理工作和相关法规建设提出以下建议:一是对流动人口给出一个比较合理的定义;二是注意与当前的户籍管理体制改革相配套;三是实行以居住地计划生育政策为主要标准的管理模式。     

Interrelationships Between Childbearing and Housing Transitions in the Family Life Course

Research has examined the effect of family changes on housing transitions and childbearing patterns within various housing types. Although most research has investigated how an event in one domain of family life depends on the current state in another domain, the interplay between them has been little studied. This study examines the interrelationships between childbearing decisions and housing transitions. We use rich longitudinal register data from Finland and apply multilevel event history analysis to allow for multiple births and housing changes over the life course. We investigate the timing of fertility decisions and housing choices with respect to each other. We model childbearing and housing transitions jointly to control for time-invariant unobserved characteristics of women, which may simultaneously influence their fertility behavior and housing choices, and we show how joint modeling leads to a deeper understanding of the interplay between the two domains of family life.     

农村出生性别比升高的分析——社区生育文化的视角

本文通过在海南省海口市近郊农村的实地调查指出,农村宗族现象的存在、社会保险制度的不健全、家庭老年人的压力和社区控制的失灵既使传统社区生育文化得以存在和延续,又强化了村民们的传统生育意愿与行为,而传统社区生育文化与村民生育意愿、行为相互建构、相互支持,从而导致社区出生性别比失调.应发挥农村社区熟人社会的优势,将社区作为控制出生性别比升高的一个重要平台,大力提高女性地位,营造两性平等的社区氛围,通过各种措施重塑新的社区生育文化,从根本上解决出生性别比问题.     

Early Childbearing Patterns and Women's Labor Force Behavior in Later Life

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the consequences of early childbearing decisions for women's labor force activity in later life. Within a life course framework, women's early child-bearing activities may be linked to later life decisions. Women between ages 55 and 64 are evaluated from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Two measures of early family roles are considered: total fertility (number of children ever born) and timing of first-birth (childless, prior to age 30, and 30+). Results provide some limited support that early childbearing roles do in fact have a long-term impact on the employment decisions of women. Women who delay childbearing are somewhat more likely to remain in the labor force during their later years whereas women who remain childless are more likely to have exited the labor force.