Statistical inference on difference or ratio of means from heteroscedastic normal populations

In this paper, we propose a two-stage sampling method (Stein, 1945) for making inferences on the means of two normal populations with heteroscedastic variances which is usually referred to as the Behrens–Fisher problem (6 and 7). The two-stage method can be used to control Type-II error and the length of confidence interval conditional on a specified Type-I error or confidence level. Simulation results show that the two-stage method improves the powers of the tests and its performance exhibits superior robustness properties over the existing single-stage methods. Moreover, our method can be easily extended to compare multiple populations.     

Exact confidence limits for the probability of response in two-stage designs

In addition to point estimate for the probability of response in a two-stage design (e.g. Simon's two-stage design for binary endpoints), confidence limits should be computed and reported. The current method of inverting the p-value function to compute the confidence interval does not guarantee coverage probability in a two-stage setting. The existing exact approach to calculate one-sided limits is based on the overall number of responses to order the sample space. This approach could be conservative because many sample points have the same limits. We propose a new exact one-sided interval based on p-value for the sample space ordering. Exact intervals are computed by using binomial distributions directly, instead of a normal approximation. Both exact intervals preserve the nominal confidence level. The proposed exact interval based on the p-value generally performs better than the other exact interval with regard to expected length and simple average length of confidence intervals.     

New one-stage multiple comparison procedures with the average for exponential location parameters under heteroscedasticity

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we present new one-stage multiple comparison procedures with the average for location parameters of two-parameter exponential distributions under heteroscedasticity by modifying the existing one proposed by Wu [One stage multiple comparisons with the average for exponential location parameters under heteroscedasticity. Comput Stat Data Anal. 2013;68:352–360] with unequal sample sizes. A simulation study is done and the results show that the proposed procedures have shorter confidence length with coverage probabilities closer to the nominal ones. At last, an example of comparing the survival days of patients for four categories of lung cancer is given to demonstrate the proposed procedures.     

A Two-stage minimax procedure with screening for selecting the largest normal mean

The problem of selecting the normal population with the largest population mean when the populations have a common known variance is considered. A two-stage procedure is proposed which guarantees the same probability requirement using the indifference-zone approach as does the single-stage procedure of Bechhofer (1954). The two-stage procedure has the highly desirable property that the expected total number of observations required by the procedure is always less than the total number of observations required by the corresponding single-stage procedure, regardless of the configuration of the population means. The saving in expected total number of observations can be substantial, particularly when the configuration of the population means is favorable to the experimenter. The saving is accomplished by screening out “non-contending” populations in the first stage, and concentrating sampling only on “contending” populations in the second stage.

The two-stage procedure can be regarded as a composite one which uses a screening subset-type approach (Gupta (1956), (1965)) in the first stage, and an indifference-zone approach (Bechhofer (1954)) applied to all populations retained in the selected sub-set in the second stage. Constants to implement the procedure for various k and P? are provided, as are calculations giving the saving in expected total sample size if the two-stage procedure is used in place of the corresponding single-stage procedure.     

A method of unconstrained multiple comparisons with the best

There are three types of multiple comparisons: all-pairwise multiple comparisons (MCA), multiple comparisons with the best (MCB), and multiple comparisons with a control (MCC). There are also three levels of multiple comparisons inference: confidence sets, subset comparisons, test of homogeneity. In current practice, MCA procedures dominate. In correct attempts at more efficient comparisons, in the form of employing lower level MCA procedures for higher level inference, account for the most frequent abuses in multiple comparisons. A better strategy is to choose the correct type of inference at the level of inference desired. In particular, very often the simulataneous comparisons of each treatment with the best of the other treatments (MCB) suffice. Hsu (1984b) gave simultaneous confidence intervals for θ_i ? max_j≠iθ_j having the simple form [? (Y_i ?max_j≠i Y_j ? C) (Y_i?max_j≠i Y_j + C)⁺]. Those intervals were constrained, sothat even if a treatment is inferred to be the best, no positive bound on how much it is better thatn the rest is given, a somewhat undesirable property. In this article it is shown that by employing a slightly larger critical value, the nonpositivity constraint on the lower bound is removed.     

Constant width simultaneous confidence bands in multiple linear regression with predictor variables constrained in intervals

In the last fifty years, a great deal of research effort has been made on the construction of simultaneous confidence bands for a linear regression function. Two most frequently quoted confidence bands in the statistics literature are the Scheffé type and constant width bands over a given rectangular region of the predictor variables. For the constant width bands, a method is given by Gafarian [Gafarian, A.V., 1964, Confidence bands in straight line regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 59, 182–213.] for the calculation of critical constants only for the special case of one predictor variable. In this article, a method is proposed to construct constant width bands when there are any number of predictor variables. A new criterion for assessing a confidence band is also proposed; it is the probability that a confidence band excludes a false regression function and can be viewed as the power function of a test associated, naturally, with a confidence band. Under this criterion, a numerical comparison between the Scheffé type and constant width bands is then carried out. It emerges from this comparison that the constant width bands can be better than the Scheffé type bands for certain designs.     

A Bayesian adaptive design for two-stage clinical trials with survival data

A randomized two-stage adaptive Bayesian design is proposed and studied for allocation and comparison in a phase III clinical trial with survival time as treatment response. Several exact and limiting properties of the design and the follow-up inference are studied, both numerically and theoretically, and are compared with a single-stage randomized procedure. The applicability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by using some real data.     

A two-stage sequential design and analysis for comparing binomial rates with possibly random dropouts

Many clinical trials involve two-stage sequential designs with one interim analysis (Elashoff and Reedy, 1984, Biometrics 41, 791-795.) In this paper we present a situation where events are counted only at two fixed calendar time points and some patients may dropout during the time intervals. In the two-stage case, naive application of Tsiatis’s (1984, JASA 77, 855-861) logrank and Wilcoxon tests, which are for continuous survival time, is shown to lead to conservative type-I error rates and lower power. The two-stage sequential boundaries can also be calculated directly, rather than by simulation as was done by DeMets and Gail (1985, Biometrics 41, 1039-1044) with the assumption of some survival models, and are shown to be more flexible than the Pocock (1977, Biometrika 64, 191-199) and O’Brien-Fleming (1983, Biometrics 35, 549-556) boundaries since the former do not require an assumption on the correlation of the test statistics for the two stages. Repeated confidence intervals are also discussed. The design and approach are motivated by clinical trials studying treatment effects on vertebral fracture rates in elderly osteoporotic women. An example (Tilyard, et al. New England Journal of Medicine, 1992) is given to illustrate the method.     

Improved confidence intervals for the exponential mean via tail functions

Abstract

The method of tail functions is applied to confidence estimation of the exponential mean in the presence of prior information. It is shown how the “ordinary” confidence interval can be generalized using a class of tail functions and then engineered for optimality, in the sense of minimizing prior expected length over that class, whilst preserving frequentist coverage. It is also shown how to derive the globally optimal interval, and how to improve on this using tail functions when criteria other than length are taken into consideration. Probabilities of false coverage are reported for some of the intervals under study, and the theory is illustrated by application to confidence estimation of a reliability coefficient based on some survival data.     

Empirical likelihood dimension reduction inference for partially non-linear error-in-responses models with validation data

ABSTRACT

In this article, partially non linear models when the response variable is measured with error and explanatory variables are measured exactly are considered. Without specifying any error structure equation, a semiparametric dimension reduction technique is employed. Two estimators of unknown parameter in non linear function are obtained and asymptotic normality is proved. In addition, empirical likelihood method for parameter vector is provided. It is shown that the estimated empirical log-likelihood ratio has asymptotic Chi-square distribution. A simulation study indicates that, compared with normal approximation method, empirical likelihood method performs better in terms of coverage probabilities and average length of the confidence intervals.     

Estimating Process Capability Index C PM Using a Bootstrap Sequential Sampling Procedure

Construction of a confidence interval for process capability index C _PM is often based on a normal approximation with fixed sample size. In this article, we describe a different approach in constructing a fixed-width confidence interval for process capability index C _PM with a preassigned accuracy by using a combination of bootstrap and sequential sampling schemes. The optimal sample size required to achieve a preassigned confidence level is obtained using both two-stage and modified two-stage sequential procedures. The procedure developed is also validated using an extensive simulation study.     

A Bayesian test of independence in a two-way contingency table using surrogate sampling

We consider a Bayesian approach to the study of independence in a two-way contingency table which has been obtained from a two-stage cluster sampling design. If a procedure based on single-stage simple random sampling (rather than the appropriate cluster sampling) is used to test for independence, the p-value may be too small, resulting in a conclusion that the null hypothesis is false when it is, in fact, true. For many large complex surveys the Rao–Scott corrections to the standard chi-squared (or likelihood ratio) statistic provide appropriate inference. For smaller surveys, though, the Rao–Scott corrections may not be accurate, partly because the chi-squared test is inaccurate. In this paper, we use a hierarchical Bayesian model to convert the observed cluster samples to simple random samples. This provides surrogate samples which can be used to derive the distribution of the Bayes factor. We demonstrate the utility of our procedure using an example and also provide a simulation study which establishes our methodology as a viable alternative to the Rao–Scott approximations for relatively small two-stage cluster samples. We also show the additional insight gained by displaying the distribution of the Bayes factor rather than simply relying on a summary of the distribution.     

Multiple comparisons with the average for exponential location parameters based on doubly censored sample under heteroscedasticity

In this paper, a one-stage multiple comparison procedures with the average for exponential location parameters based on the doubly censored sample under heteroscedasticity is proposed. These intervals can be used to identify a subset which includes all no-worse-than-the-average treatments in an experimental design and to identify better-than-the-average, worse-than-the-average and not-much-different-from-the-average products in agriculture, emerging market, pharmaceutical industries. The critical values are tabulated in a table for practical use. A simulation study on the confidence length and coverage probabilities is done. At last, an example of comparing four drugs in the treatment of leukemia is given to demonstrate the proposed procedures.     

Small Sample Confidence Intervals for the Odds Ratio

Abstract

Numerous methods—based on exact and asymptotic distributions—can be used to obtain confidence intervals for the odds ratio in 2 × 2 tables. We examine ten methods for generating these intervals based on coverage probability, closeness of coverage probability to target, and length of confidence intervals. Based on these criteria, Cornfield’s method, without the continuity correction, performed the best of the methods examined here. A drawback to use of this method is the significant possibility that the attained coverage probability will not meet the nominal confidence level. Use of a mid-P value greatly improves methods based on the “exact” distribution. When combined with the Wilson rule for selection of a rejection set, the resulting method is a procedure that performed very well. Crow’s method, with use of a mid-P, performed well, although it was only a slight improvement over the Wilson mid-P method. Its cumbersome calculations preclude its general acceptance. Woolf's (logit) method—with the Haldane–Anscombe correction— performed well, especially with regard to length of confidence intervals, and is recommended based on ease of computation.     

The effect of autocorrelation on the ewma maxmin tolerance limits

Amin et al. (1999) developed an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, based on the smallest and largest observations in each sample. The resulting plot of the extremes suggests that the MaxMin EWMA may also be viewed as smoothed tolerance limits. Tolerance limits are limits that include a specific proportion of the population at a given confidence level. In the context of process control, they are used to make sure that production will not be outside specifications. Amin and Li (2000) provided the coverages of the MaxMin EWMA tolerance limits for independent data. In this article, it is shown how autocorrelation affects the confidence level of MaxMin tolerance limits, for a specified level of coverage of the population, and modified smoothed tolerance limits are suggested for autocorrelated processes.     

Confidence intervals for the difference in paired Youden indices

Comparison of accuracy between two diagnostic tests can be implemented by investigating the difference in paired Youden indices. However, few literature articles have discussed the inferences for the difference in paired Youden indices. In this paper, we propose an exact confidence interval for the difference in paired Youden indices based on the generalized pivotal quantities. For comparison, the maximum likelihood estimate‐based interval and a bootstrap‐based interval are also included in the study for the difference in paired Youden indices. Abundant simulation studies are conducted to compare the relative performance of these intervals by evaluating the coverage probability and average interval length. Our simulation results demonstrate that the exact confidence interval outperforms the other two intervals even with small sample size when the underlying distributions are normal. A real application is also used to illustrate the proposed intervals. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interval Estimation for the Correlation Coefficient

ABSTRACT

The correlation coefficient (CC) is a standard measure of a possible linear association between two continuous random variables. The CC plays a significant role in many scientific disciplines. For a bivariate normal distribution, there are many types of confidence intervals for the CC, such as z-transformation and maximum likelihood-based intervals. However, when the underlying bivariate distribution is unknown, the construction of confidence intervals for the CC is not well-developed. In this paper, we discuss various interval estimation methods for the CC. We propose a generalized confidence interval for the CC when the underlying bivariate distribution is a normal distribution, and two empirical likelihood-based intervals for the CC when the underlying bivariate distribution is unknown. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the new intervals with existing intervals in terms of coverage probability and interval length. Finally, two real examples are used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Performance of Confidence Intervals in Regression Models with Unbalanced One-Fold Nested Error Structures

Abstract

In this article we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for a linear regression model with unbalanced nested error structure. A popular approach is the likelihood-based method employed by PROC MIXED of SAS. In this article, we examine the ability of MIXED to produce confidence intervals that maintain the stated confidence coefficient. Our results suggest that intervals for the regression coefficients work well, but intervals for the variance component associated with the primary level cannot be recommended. Accordingly, we propose alternative methods for constructing confidence intervals on the primary level variance component. Computer simulation is used to compare the proposed methods. A numerical example and SAS code are provided to demonstrate the methods.     

Distribution-free cumulative sum and exponentially weighted moving average control charts based on the Wilcoxon rank-sum statistic using ranked set sampling for monitoring mean shifts

ABSTRACT

Whenever a practitioner is not sure about the underlying process distribution, alternative monitoring schemes that may be used are called nonparametric charts. A nonparametric scheme mostly used to monitor the difference in the means of two samples is called the Wilcoxon rank-sum (WRS). In this paper, we propose nonparametric (or distribution-free) cumulative sum and exponentially weighted moving average charts based on the WRS using ranked set sampling. We thoroughly discuss the performance of the proposed control charts in terms of run-length properties through intensive simulations. Moreover, we conduct an overall performance comparison using the relative mean index and a variety of quality loss functions (for instance, the average extra quadratic loss, average ratio of the average run-length and performance comparison index). The newly proposed charts have very attractive run-length properties and they have better overall performance than their counterparts. An illustrative example is given, as well as an easy-to-use table with optimal design parameters to aid practical implementation.