On some optimal fractional 2m factorial designs of resolution V

This paper presents the trace of the covariance matrix of the estimates of effects based on a fractional 2^m factorial (2^m-FF) design T of resolution V for the following two cases: One is the case where T is constructed by adding some restricted assemblies to an orthogonal array. The other is one where T is constructed by removing some restricted assemblies from an orthogonal array of index unity. In the class of 2^m-FF designs of resolution V considered here, optimal designs with respect to the trace criterion, i.e. A-optimal, are presented for m = 4, 5, and 6 and for a range of practical values of N (the total number of assemblies). Some of them are better than the corresponding A-optimal designs in the class of balanced fractional 2^m factorial designs of resolution V obtained by Srivastava and Chopra (1971b) in such a sense that the trace of the covariance matrix of the estimates is small.     

Families of Hadamard group divisible designs

By a family of designs we mean a set of designs whose parameters can be represented as functions of an auxiliary variable t where the design will exist for infinitely many values of t. The best known family is probably the family of finite projective planes with υ = b = t² + t + 1, r = k = t + 1, and λ = 1. In some instances, notably coding theory, the existence of families is essential to provide the degree of precision required which can well vary from one coding problem to another. A natural vehicle for developing binary codes is the class of Hadamard matrices. Bush (1977) introduced the idea of constructing semi-regular designs using Hadamard matrices whereas the present study is concerned mostly with construction of regular designs using Hadamard matrices. While codes constructed from these designs are not optimal in the usual sense, it is possible that they may still have substantial value since, with different values of λ₁ and λ₂, there are different error correcting capabilities.     

Robust Linear Calibration

We regard the simple linear calibration problem where only the response y of the regression line y = β₀ + β₁ t is observed with errors. The experimental conditions t are observed without error. For the errors of the observations y we assume that there may be some gross errors providing outlying observations. This situation can be modeled by a conditionally contaminated regression model. In this model the classical calibration estimator based on the least squares estimator has an unbounded asymptotic bias. Therefore we introduce calibration estimators based on robust one-step-M-estimators which have a bounded asymptotic bias. For this class of estimators we discuss two problems: The optimal estimators and their corresponding optimal designs. We derive the locally optimal solutions and show that the maximin efficient designs for non-robust estimation and robust estimation coincide.     

D-minimax Second-order Designs Over Hypercubes for Extrapolation and Restricted Interpolation Regions

The D-minimax criterion for estimating slopes of a response surface involving k factors is considered for situations where the experimental region χ and the region of interest ? are co-centered cubes but not necessarily identical. Taking χ = [ ? 1, 1]^k and ? = [ ? R, R]^k, optimal designs under the criterion for the full second-order model are derived for various values of R and their relative performances investigated. The asymptotically optimal design as R → ∞ is also derived and investigated. In addition, the optimal designs within the class of product designs are obtained. In the asymptotic case it is found that the optimal product design is given by a solution of a cubic equation that reduces to a quadratic equation for k = 3?and?6. Relative performances of various designs obtained are examined. In particular, the optimal asymptotic product design and the traditional D-optimal design are compared and it is found that the former performs very well.     

Optimal designs for approximating the path of a stochastic process

We consider a centered stochastic process {X(t):t ∈ T} with known and continuous covariance function. On the basis of observations X(t₁), …, X(t_n) we approximate the whole path by orthogonal projection and measure the performance of the chosen design d = (t₁, …, t_n)′ by the corresponding mean squared L²-distance. For covariance functions on T² = [0, 1]², which satisfy a generalized Sacks-Ylvisaker regularity condition of order zero, we construct asymptotically optimal sequences of designs. Moreover, we characterize the achievement of a lower error bound, given by Micchelli and Wahba (1981), and study the question of whether this bound can be attained.     

Minimax regression designs for approximately linear models with autocorrelated errors

We study the construction of regression designs, when the random errors are autocorrelated. Our model of dependence assumes that the spectral density g(ω) of the error process is of the form g(ω) = (1 − α)g₀(ω) + αg₁(ω), where g₀(ω) is uniform (corresponding to uncorrelated errors), α ϵ [0, 1) is fixed, and g₁(ω) is arbitrary. We consider regression responses which are exactly, or only approximately, linear in the parameters. Our main results are that a design which is asymptotically (minimax) optimal for uncorrelated errors retains its optimality under autocorrelation if the design points are a random sample, or a random permutation, of points from this distribution. Our results are then a partial extension of those of Wu (Ann. Statist. 9 (1981), 1168–1177), on the robustness of randomized experimental designs, to the field of regression design.     

Designs for weighted least squares regression, with estimated weights

We study designs, optimal up to and including terms that are O(n ^?1), for weighted least squares regression, when the weights are intended to be inversely proportional to the variances but are estimated with random error. We take a finite, but arbitrarily large, design space from which the support points are to be chosen, and obtain the optimal proportions of observations to be assigned to each point. Specific examples of D- and I-optimal design for polynomial responses are studied. In some cases the same designs that are optimal under homoscedasticity remain so for a range of variance functions; in others there tend to be more support points than are required in the homoscedastic case. We also exhibit minimax designs, that minimize the maximum, over finite classes of variance functions, value of the loss. These also tend to have more support points, often resulting from the breaking down of replicates into clusters.     

E-optimal designs for polynomial regression without intercept

We give all E-optimal designs for the mean parameter vector in polynomial regression of degree d without intercept in one real variable. The derivation is based on interplays between E-optimal design problems in the present and in certain heteroscedastic polynomial setups with intercept. Thereby the optimal supports are found to be related to the alternation points of the Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind, but the structure of optimal designs essentially depends on the regression degree being odd or even. In the former case the E-optimal designs are precisely the (infinitely many) scalar optimal designs, where the scalar parameter system refers to the Chebyshev coefficients, while for even d there is exactly one optimal design. In both cases explicit formulae for the corresponding optimal weights are obtained. Remarks on extending the results to E-optimality for subparameters of the mean vector (in heteroscdastic setups) are also given.     

Robust designs for nearly linear regression

In this paper we seek designs and estimators which are optimal in some sense for multivariate linear regression on cubes and simplexes when the true regression function is unknown. More precisely, we assume that the unknown true regression function is the sum of a linear part plus some contamination orthogonal to the set of all linear functions in the L₂ norm with respect to Lebesgue measure. The contamination is assumed bounded in absolute value and it is shown that the usual designs for multivariate linear regression on cubes and simplices and the usual least squares estimators minimize the supremum over all possible contaminations of the expected mean square error. Additional results for extrapolation and interpolation, among other things, are discussed. For suitable loss functions optimal designs are found to have support on the extreme points of our design space.     

The generalized maximum Tsallis entropy estimators and applications to the Portland cement dataset

Tsallis entropy is a generalized form of entropy and tends to be Shannon entropy when q → 1. Using Tsallis entropy, an alternative estimation methodology (generalized maximum Tsallis entropy) is introduced and used to estimate the parameters in a linear regression model when the basic data are ill-conditioned. We describe the generalized maximum Tsallis entropy and for q = 2 we call that GMET2 estimator. We apply the GMET2 estimator for estimating the linear regression model Y = Xβ + e where the design matrix X is subject to severe multicollinearity. We compared the GMET2, generalized maximum entropy (GME), ordinary least-square (OLS), and inequality restricted least-square (IRLS) estimators on the analyzed dataset on Portland cement.     

A-optimal design measures for one-way layouts with additive regression

For linear models with one discrete factor and additive general regression term the problem of characterizing A-optimal design measures for inference on (i) treatment effects, (ii) the regression parameters and (iii) all parameters will be considered. In any of these problems product designs can be found which are optimal among all designs, and equal weigth 1/J may be given to each of the J levels of the discrete factor. For problem (i) and (ii) the allocation of the continuous factors for the regression term should follow a suitable optimal design for the corresponding pure regression model, whereas for problem (iii) this would not give an A-optimal product design. For this problem an equivalence theorem for A-optimal product designs will be given. An example will illustrate these results. Finally, by analyzing a model with two discrete factors it will be shown that for enlarged models the best product designs may not be A-optimal.     

D-optimal designs for combined polynomial and trigonometric regression on a partial circle

Consider the D-optimal designs for a combined polynomial and trigonometric regression on a partial circle. It is shown that the optimal design is equally supported and the structure of the optimal design depends only on the length of the design interval and the support points are analytic functions of this parameter. Moreover, the Taylor expansion of the optimal support points can be determined efficiently by a recursive procedure. Examples are presented to illustrate the procedures for computing the optimal designs.     

E-optimal designs for regression models with quantitative factors— a reasonable choice?

For regression models with quantitative factors it is illustrated that the E-optimal design can be extremely inefficient in the sense that it degenerates to a design which takes all observations at only one point. This phenomenon is caused by the different size of the elements in the covariance matrix of the least-squares estimator for the unknown parameters. For these reasons we propose to replace the E-criterion by a corresponding standardized version. The advantage of this approach is demonstrated for the polynomial regression on a nonnegative interval, where the classical and standardized E-optimal designs can be found explicitly. The described phenomena are not restricted to the E-criterion but appear for nearly all optimality criteria proposed in the literature. Therefore standardization is recommended for optimal experimental design in regression models with quantitative factors. The optimal designs with respect to the new standardized criteria satisfy a similar invariance property as the famous D-optimal designs, which allows an easy calculation of standardized optimal designs on many linearly transformed design spaces.     

Optimal designs based on exact confidence regions for parameter estimation of a nonlinear regression model

This paper is concerned with the proposal of optimality criteria, referred to as X  - and X^′$X^{\prime }$-optimality criteria, and the construction of X  - and X^′$X^{\prime }$-optimal designs, for nonlinear regression models. These optimal designs aim at improving the estimation of parameters of this class of models. The principle of these criteria is the minimization, with respect to the design, of the expected volume of a particular exact parametric confidence region. In this paper we give detailed definitions, properties, and computation methods of X  - and X^′$X^{\prime }$-optimal designs. We also compare these designs with the classic local D-optimal designs, with regard to robustness and efficiency, for two very well-known academic models (Box–Lucas and Michaelis–Menten models).     

Implications of survey design for generalized regression estimation of linear functions

The paper presents a general randomization theory approach to point and interval estimation of Q linear functions T_q = Σ^N₁c_kqY_k(q = 1,…,Q), where Y₁,…,Y_N are values of a variable of interest Y in a finite population. Such linear functions include population and domain means and totals, population regression coefficients, etc. We assume that some auxiliary information can be exploited. This suggests the generalized regression technique based on the fit of a linear model, whereby is created approximately design unbiased estimators T?_q. The paper focuses on estimation of the variance-covariance matrix of the T?_q for single stage and two stage designs. Two techniques based on Taylor expansions are compared. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments (not reported here) show that the coverage properties are good of normal-theory confidence intervals flowing from one or the other variance estimate.     

Identification of power distribution mixtures through regression of exponentials

Given two independent non-degenerate positive random variables X and Y, Lukacs (Ann Math Stat 26:319–324, 1955) proved that X/(X + Y) and X + Y are independent if and only if X and Y are gamma distributed with the same scale parameter. In this work, under the assumption X/U and U are independent, and X/U has a ${{\mathcal Be}(p,\,q)}$ distribution, we characterize the distribution of (U, X) by the condition E(h(U ? X)|X) = b, where h is allowed to be a linear combination of exponential functions. Since the assumption for X and U above is equivalent to X|U being ${\mathcal{B}e(p,\,1)}$ scaled by U, hence our results can be viewed as identification of a power distribution mixture.     

Cyclic designs for a covariate model

A linear model with one treatment at V levels and first order regression on K continuous covariates with values on a K-cube is considered. We restrict our attention to classes of designs d for which the number of observations N to be taken is a multiple of V, i.e. N = V × R with R ≥2, and each treatment level is observed R times. Among these designs, called here equireplicated, there is a subclass characterized by the following: the allocation matrix of each treatment level (for short, allocation matrix) is obtained through cyclic permutation of the columns of the allocation matrix of the first treatment level. We call these designs cyclic. Besides having easy representation, the most efficient cyclic designs are often D-optimal in the class of equireplicated designs. A known upper bound for the determinant of the information matrix M(d) of a design, in the class of equireplicated ones, depends on the congruences of N and V modulo 4. For some combinations of parameter moduli, we give here methods of constructing families of D-optimal cyclic designs. Moreover, for some sets of parameters (N, V,K = V), where the upper bound on ∣M(d)∣ (for that specific combination of moduli) is not attainable, it is also possible to construct highly D-efficient cyclic designs. Finally, for N≤24 and V≤6, computer search was used to determine the most efficient design in the class of cyclic ones. They are presented, together with their respective efficiency in the class of equireplicated designs.     

A new characterization of Elfving's method for high dimensional computation

We give a new characterization of Elfving's (1952) method for computing c-optimal designs in k dimensions which gives explicit formulae for the k unknown optimal weights and k unknown signs in Elfving's characterization. This eliminates the need to search over these parameters to compute c-optimal designs, and thus reduces the computational burden from solving a family of optimization problems to solving a single optimization problem for the optimal finite support set. We give two illustrative examples: a high dimensional polynomial regression model and a logistic regression model, the latter showing that the method can be used for locally optimal designs in nonlinear models as well.     

Nonparametric regression estimation in a null recurrent time series

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for a time series regression model Z_t=f(X_t)+W_t, where {X_t} and {Z_t} are observed nonstationary processes, and {W_t} is an unobserved stationary process. The class of nonstationary processes allowed for {X_t} is a subclass of the class of null recurrent Markov chains. This subclass contains the random walk, unit root processes and nonlinear processes. The process {W_t} is assumed to be linear and stationary.     

Dimension reduced kernel estimation for distribution function with incomplete data

This work focuses on the estimation of distribution functions with incomplete data, where the variable of interest Y has ignorable missingness but the covariate X is always observed. When X is high dimensional, parametric approaches to incorporate X—information is encumbered by the risk of model misspecification and nonparametric approaches by the curse of dimensionality. We propose a semiparametric approach, which is developed under a nonparametric kernel regression framework, but with a parametric working index to condense the high dimensional X—information for reduced dimension. This kernel dimension reduction estimator has double robustness to model misspecification and is most efficient if the working index adequately conveys the X—information about the distribution of Y. Numerical studies indicate better performance of the semiparametric estimator over its parametric and nonparametric counterparts. We apply the kernel dimension reduction estimation to an HIV study for the effect of antiretroviral therapy on HIV virologic suppression.