Strategic Government Spending in South Korea and Taiwan: Lessons for Emergent Democracies*

Objectives. How is government spending used strategically in South Korea and Taiwan? As nations generally considered to have weathered democratization, government allocations in South Korea and Taiwan are instructive on how spending may be used strategically without undermining democratization. Methods. The similar sociocultural, historical, political, and economic experiences of the two nations underlie a most‐similar‐systems approach to study how their differences influence diversity in strategic spending and, correspondingly, political outcomes such as size of the government party in the legislature. This article evaluates defense and civilian expenditures for South Korea and Taiwan from 1975 to 2006. Results. Three results are interesting. First, different elections—legislative elections in South Korea, presidential elections in Taiwan—lead to increases in spending. Second, in both nations, defense spending increases in election years but not social spending; however, defense spending benefits the government‐party in the legislature in South Korea but not in Taiwan. Third, when the strategic uses of spending are accounted for, democratization does not directly affect allocations. Conclusions. These results explicate that government spending is a viable resource for party building in new democracies; however, the results also underscore that governing parties in new democracies benefit from spending only insofar as it is used to build the nation's or party's strengths—not undermine the opposition—under competitive elections.     

Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon*

Objectives. I test the impact of Oregon's vote‐by‐mail system on voter turnout. Methods. To determine the impact, I create a cross‐sectional time‐series regression model of state turnout in presidential elections from 1980 to 2004 and mid‐term elections from 1982 to 2006. Results. I find that Oregon's turnout increases by around 10 percentage points of registered voters in both presidential and mid‐term elections due to the voting‐by‐mail reform. Conclusions. These results suggest that one of the reasons that the United States has comparatively lower turnout is due to its more onerous voting procedures.     

State-level personality and presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections

Recent research has examined how variation across the states in the “Big Five” personality trait taxonomy helps explain the proportion of votes the presidential candidates receive in the states, concluding that state personality traits had a direct effect on presidential vote share in the 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential elections. The current study has three goals: First, to examine the influence of personality traits on Barack Obama's vote share in the 2008 and 2012 elections; second to test whether the influence of personality traits on vote share holds under stricter controls for political factors and white racial prejudice; and, third, to test for potential meditating effects of state-level political characteristics and white racial prejudice in linking state-level personality traits with Obama's vote share. The findings indicate that two state personality traits – conscientiousness and openness – had indirect effects on Obama's 2008 and 2012 vote share through their influence on state ideology, partisanship, and white racial prejudice.     

The New West in the context of extractive commodity theory: the case of bison-brucellosis in Yellowstone National Park

Extractive commodity theory suggests that rural communities’ transformation from “Old West” to “New West” economies should produce populations that are supportive of environmental initiatives and trusting of environmental groups. Using the Yellowstone-area bison-brucellosis conflict as a case, we explore this possibility as well as the influence of age, sex, percent of life lived in the community and perception of Montana’s economic composition on the New West’s support for environmental initiatives and trust of information sources. Surveys were sent to two New West communities in Montana that were embroiled in the 1996–1997 bison controversy. One hundred and twenty-four of 225 surveys were returned (55%). The results indicate that respondents were supportive of protecting bison, trusting of information sources associated with the ranching industry, and that only perception of the economic composition of Montana was consistently related to these variables. The theoretical implications of this study are explored.     

Red states,blue states: How well do the recent national election labels capture state political and policy differences?

The alleged polarization between the so-called red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states during the presidential elections has been examined using only voter surveys. Focusing on the recent thirteen national elections from 1964 to 2012, we examine social, political, institutional, and policy indicators of the 50 American states to (1) gauge the extent to which national election results reflect significant policy and political differences between the red and blue states and (2) to assess the explanatory power of the dichotomous red–blue label relative to a continuous variable of “redness” or “blueness” by the percentage of votes received. We find substantial political and some moderate social differences between red and blue states but fewer institutional and policy differences than one would expect if there were actually deep divisions between the states. We find that the red–blue state distinction performs well when compared to the explanatory power of the more precise redness or blueness of a state.     

The incredible shrinking president and the economy

This paper employs regression analysis to investigate alternative explanations of presidential approval ratings. Since perhaps the greatest determinant, actual performance, is not readily measurable, the analysis is restricted to the first and fourth month of each term, a period sufficiently short that performance might not be expected to be clearly established. Strong empirical evidence is found to support: (1) the importance of economic conditions, especially those projected for the upcoming quarter; (2) a handicap in approval ratings today of about 11 points when compared to 1948; (3) an advantage (of about 5 to 13 points) enjoyed by Republican Presidents; and (4) the existence of a honeymoon (of about 6 points) in the first month of a presidential term that dissipates by the fourth month. Perhaps most important, strong evidence is found to discount the value of one and four month approval ratings as an accurate reflection of public evaluation of a President’s abilities or performance. Instead, those ratings are almost entirely explained by factors outside the control of the individual Presidents.     

Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect*

Objective. In this research, the presidential election cycle hypothesis is evaluated within the context of the turn‐of‐the‐month effect found in stock returns. Methods. Returns from the daily Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, and the NASDAQ Composite index are grouped into turn‐of‐the month returns and non‐turn‐of‐the‐month returns. Statistical comparisons are conducted to evaluate the returns based on administration subperiod, temporal subperiod, and party affiliation. Results. The results provide evidence of higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms. The higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns account for most of the additional returns found in the second half of presidential terms evidenced in prior research. Conclusions. The persistent higher investment returns for stocks found in the second half of presidential terms can be linked to fiscal and administrative policies that increase household liquidity prior to elections. Incumbents attempt to influence voter choice and energize core constituencies by increasing household liquidity prior to elections through fiscal and administrative policies. These actions create higher turn‐of the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms, which generate additional overall investment returns for the period.     

Candidates and Competition: Variability in Ideological Voting in U.S. Senate Elections*

Objectives. In choosing candidates to support in congressional elections, voters consider both policy and nonpolicy factors. However, the relative importance of incumbency or presidential approval versus candidates' ideological platforms likely varies across elections. Specifically, stiffer electoral competition should encourage ideology‐based voting because candidate information is more plentiful. In contrast, incumbents' ability to garner votes simply by virtue of already holding office should depress proximity voting in elections with incumbents. Methods. Using data from the 1988–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study, I estimate logistic regression models of individual vote choice. Results. I find that open‐seat elections do promote the use of candidate ideological proximity in the voting calculus but that the effects of election competitiveness are less clear. Conclusions. The findings have important implications for normative democratic theory, for our constitutional framework, and for elite behavior and aggregate‐level electoral outcomes.     

Institutional and District‐Level Sources of Competition in State Legislative Elections*

Objectives. What are the sources of partisan competition in state legislative elections? Specifically, what impact do institutional features have relative to district‐level conditions on competition between party nominees? Methods. Using data from 30 states in 1994 and 1996, a range of factors are examined to determine their influence on both the likelihood that a race is contested and the degree of competition that results. Results. Multiple regression analyses indicate that a district's characteristics, measured as social and partisan diversity, have a strong and durable influence on elections. Contested elections are more likely and competition levels are higher in districts with heterogeneous populations. Institutional characteristics such as legislative professionalism also have a large influence, although the direction of their impact varies by stage of the electoral process examined. For example, professionalism increases the likelihood that an election is contested, but leads to a lower level of competition between opposing candidates. Conclusions. District‐level conditions have a large influence on competition; however, incentives created by institutional features are also critical for understanding the competitiveness of state legislative elections.     

Immigration in the 2008 Virginia presidential election: A cultural issue remains puissant despite an economic crisis

In 2006 and 2007, many analysts expected that immigration would be one of the top domestic issues in the 2008 campaign. However, in the 2008 presidential general election, immigration issues were never a major topic between candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. This was partially because McCain has more moderate views toward immigration reform than the passionate anti-immigration faction of the Republican Party. Prior research suggests that an issue in a presidential campaign can remain influential even when the media and campaigns are not discussing or addressing the issue, even when the candidates or parties do not differ greatly on the issue. In a survey of Virginia residents conducted just before the November election, immigration attitudes were a differential factor between McCain and Obama.     

The Timing of Presidential Cinema*

Objective. Researchers have examined the social meaning of political cinema; however, little research places film into its contemporary political and economic context. Therefore, I examine the timing of the production and release of presidential cinema. Methods. The data are comprised of major motion picture releases from the years 1953–2004 that include a U.S. president as a character. Regression analysis is used to determine how the temporal release of movies featuring a president corresponds to social realities. Results. I find that the release of presidential cinema is correlated with the party that controls the actual White House and with the number of consecutive terms that the same party has been in the White House. More films with presidents are released during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations and more films with presidents are released during first rather than second terms. This appears more acute during presidential election years. The state of the national economy affects the release of presidential cinema as well. Strong economies lead to the release of more films with presidents. Conclusions. This suggests that popular film content is affected not only by filmmaker whim and creativity, but also by measurable contemporary political and economic conditions. Future studies investigating film content should account for how national trends affect popular entertainment.     

The responsiveness of state legislatures and their agenda concerning gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender interests

Republicanism, as opposed to direct democracy, has been theorized to protect minority rights. Direct democracy with its majority rule is unlikely to serve the interests of minorities particularly if their interests are perceived to conflict with the majority's interests. However, Republican Institutions vary in features that affect their responsiveness to majoritarian preferences. This article examines whether specific legislative features associated with responsiveness (majoritarian participation, constituent ties and professionalism) affect the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) agenda in state legislatures. The findings suggest that the importance of these features is dependent on the ideological leanings of the state. The findings also suggest that some features expand both pro- and anti-GLBT agendas, and the effects of professionalism are ambiguous.     

Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries*

Objectives. The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries in both the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted a reconsideration of the role of delegate‐selection rules in influencing the strategic behavior of presidential candidates. Using advertising and candidate state‐visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns, we reexamine the strategies presidential candidates use when competing for the nomination of their party. Methods. Using the Wisconsin Advertising Project Data from 2004 and 2008, we estimate several multiple regressions designed to analyze the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising. Results. We find that, to a large extent, the rules of the game help predict where candidates allocate their political advertising and campaign stops; candidates consider whether a contest is a primary or caucus, they pay attention to how many delegates are at stake, and they consider whether a state's delegate‐allocation method is largely proportional or winner take all. Yet we also find some differences in how the rules influence frontrunners and long‐shot candidates, and we discover how other factors, including a candidate's access to financial resources, influence the allocation of ads and visits. Conclusion. Our findings offer some of the first empirical evidence for the idea that a state's delegate‐allocation method influences candidates' resource‐allocation behavior. That these rules matter at all is somewhat of a surprise given that the delegate‐allocation methods used by states have become more homogenous within each party.     

All Politics is Not Local: National Forces in State Abortion Initiatives

Objective. Although research suggests that national forces can play a role in local and state elections, most of this work has only recently begun to examine the potential role of national forces in state or local ballot initiative or referenda elections. Methods. Our research addresses this gap in the literature by exploring the influence of national forces, such as the timing of elections, Supreme Court rulings, the activities of interest groups, and public opinion, on state direct legislation elections. We incorporate national forces into the morality politics framework and derive specific hypotheses. We then test these hypotheses by conducting a multivariate analysis of county–level voting patterns across 16 abortion–related direct legislation elections. Results. Our results confirm most of the hypotheses derived from the morality politics framework, including those concerning the role of national forces. Conclusions. Voting patterns on abortion tend to be influenced by the presence of presidential elections, Supreme Court rulings, interest–group activity, public opinion, partisanship, college education, and conservative religious forces. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on elections, abortion policy, and morality politics.     

In Praise of Community Organizers

Community organizing was an issue of discussion during the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign. Rather than celebrate its rich history of advocating for labor reform and community revitalization, noted opponents of former community organizer Barack Obama, including Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, decided to make grassroots community organizing the target of their ridicule and scorn. Given group work's close association with community organizing, in this article in the Social Work with Groups journal, the author aims to set the record straight.     

The rising influence of evangelicalism in American political behavior, 1980–2004

Connections between evangelicalism and political behavior are explored using National Election Study (NES) data from 1980 to 2004. Our findings suggest that although white evangelical support for Republican presidential candidates has increased, the independent effect of evangelicalism on voting has weakened. We argue that this reflects an increasing convergence between evangelicalism and Republican Party identification. Beginning in the 1990s, as more and more evangelicals identified as Republicans, the independent effect of their religious commitment on voting weakened. We also find strengthening correlations between evangelicalism and policy preferences, especially on non-social issues, and enhanced Republican mobilization of evangelical voters in recent campaigns. We conclude with the suggestion that changes in evangelical political behavior over a 24-year period support the notion of an electoral realignment in American politics.     

Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944–2004*

Objective. Perennial questions in electoral studies are what constitutes realignment, and when and where do realignments occur? Using the concepts of critical and secular realignments as a framework, we model change in the end product of realignment, election outcomes. We test for secular and critical changes in partisan strength across six geographic regions of the United States, focusing on office‐holding data at both the federal and state legislative level. Methods. Using an interrupted time‐series model, we examine evidence for secular realignment and posit five critical interventions that have affected American politics since World War II. Results. Our findings suggest that there are elements of both critical and secular realignments at work with different patterns in each region, and that different regions have been affected by a variety of elections associated with critical events since 1944. Conclusions. The collapse of Republican hegemony in the Northeast and Pacific West has gone largely unnoticed, buried in the intense examination of the growth of the Republican Party in the American South. The 1994 election is the most prominent in terms of its impact on seat holding by the parties at both the state and national level, and constitutes a realigning election.     

Strategic voting in the 1984 democratic presidential primaries

When casting their ballots in primary elections, voters usually vote in a straight-forward manner for the candidate of their preference. But sometimes sophisticated voters vote for a second or third choice who has a better chance of winning in the general election or even cross over to the opposition party to vote for a candidate who will be easier to defeat in the general election. This article assesses the amount and importance of such strategic voting in Democratic presidential primaries in 1984 using discriminate analysis.     

The roll-off effect in judicial retention elections

Because of the absence of powerful traditional voting cues and the unusual nature and format of uncontested judicial retention elections, a large number of voters deliberately fail to cost ballots in retention elections. Filling a void in the study of retention elections, this study empirically examines the voter roll-off in 1,864 retention elections for major trial court judges for the period 1964–1984. The mean roll-off for these elections was 36.2%. Voter roll-off was found to be positively related to district size and number of counties in a judicial district. These trial court retention elections exhibit mixed relationships for different types of elections. Although in presidential and nonpresidential elections there is clear surge and decline in voter turnout, there is no corresponding surge and decline in roll-off. However, close retention elections have less roll-off than nonclose elections.