人口预测在PADIS-INT软件中的应用——MORTPAK、Spectrum和PADIS-INT比较分析北大核心CSSCI

队列要素方法目前在人口预测实践中应用极为广泛,而在人口预测软件中对其加以具体运用时,由于涉及算法设定、程序编制上的诸多细节问题,预测结果的精准程度可能会受到影响。文章选定主流的人口预测软件,使用瑞典的实际人口数据,开展对比性人口预测试验,考察不同软件对队列要素方法的实现状况。研究发现,MORTPAK、Spectrum和PADIS-INT人口预测软件由5岁组起始人口插分出的单岁组结果具有一致性、是相近的,根据预测结果推算出的存活比差别甚微,出生人口的预测结果也没有显示很大差异。PADIS-INT已经达到国际主流人口预测软件所应具有的预测水准,而考虑到其功能设置更加丰富、参数导入更加灵活、结果呈现更加细致的优势,它目前更加适用于具有应用性质的详细人口预测。     

城市规划中人口规模预测方法评析

基于目前城市规划中人口规模预测的重要性,对人口预测方法进行全面综合的评析,总结方法特点,初步提出这些方法的使用范围。     

城南规划中人口规模预测评析

基于目前城市规划中人口规模预测的重要性。对人口预测方法进行全面综合的评析，总结方法特点，初步提出这些方法的使用范围。     

开放区域的人口分组要素组合预测

随着经济发展和区域开放程度的提高,传统的区域人口预测方法已不合时宜。本文依据人口平衡方程,运用人口分要素组合预测法,阐述了开放区域人口预测的基本方法和步骤,从而为具体的人口预测工作提供思路借鉴。     

关于生育模式的探讨

目前在国内,已有多种利用生育模式进行人口预测的方法,而生育模式的构造则是各式各样的,其中,较为普遍使用的是分胎次生育模式。为使人口预测工作和计划生育工作更密切地结合,本文将着重讨论该生育模式的构造问题,并考虑计划生育工作的特点,提出以胎次率作为生育控制指标进行生育率预测的方法。     

人口预测参数选择的初步探讨

目前世界各国政府和人口学者都十分重视人口预测工作,现代电子计算机的应用和各种人口预测数学模型之改进,为较准确地进行人口预测提供了有利条件。利用各种人口预测的数学模型都需一组参数,越是复杂的数学模型需要的参数越多,因此准确地研究和选定参数,是人口预测成果能否符合预测地区未来人口实际状况的关键。本文是今年进行的广东省人口预测工作中选择参数的一些体会,抛砖引玉,期望得到指教。     

广泛生育模式构造方法探索

随着我国计划生育工作的深入发展,对人口预测精度的要求不断提高.人口预测离不开正确选择所使用的数学模型和参数预测模型.参数预测模型主要包括生育、死亡以及迁移预测模型,这些预测模型都必须是在精确拟合初始数据的基础上。使拟合模型动态化,达到人口预测的目的.因此,本文根据甘肃省1990年10%提前抽样汇总资料中的不同地区层次和不同孩次的育龄妇女年龄生育率变化加以探讨,以期达到对当前育龄妇女年龄别     

社会动态人口承载力的预测--以云南省澜沧江区域人口为例

结合传统人口预测方法，本研究提出了结合人口与经济的新人口预测方法，并应用这一方法实证研究了云南省澜沧江区域的人口。这种方法有助于定量说明人口再生产和物质资料再生产的辩证关系。     

人口预测中生育率水平参数的确定

一、概述 人口发展的内在规律性是人口预测的客观基础。到目前为止,国内外学者已经提出了多种人口预测方法。尽管各种方法的具体作法不同,但它们的基本思想却是一致的。即构造预测模型,确定预测参数的初始值以及估计各种预测参数的未来变化趋势。如果可以构造出有效的预测模型,并且能够确定出精确的初始参数,那么人口预测也就成了对参数趋势的预测     

我国人口发展前景的预测

1975年,我们学习了江苏、河北等地人口预测的先进经验,对北京市城乡育龄妇女的结婚生育规律,进行了调查研究。由此探索晚、稀、少要求下的人口预测方法,即后来称作标准生育率的人口预测法。运用这种方法,我们对北京市以至全国的人口趋势,进行过百年预测。随着我们对人口再生产规律认识的深化,人口预测应反复进行。当前我国人口政策的重点是降低出生率,并提出一对夫妇生一个孩子作为控制人口的重大战略性措施。贯彻这一措施,将会出现怎样的人口形势,已引起普遍关注。为此,我们必须对未来人口发展进行重新预测,而且预测人口还有多种意义。     

The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure

Current population-forecasting efforts generally adopt minor variants of the cohort-survival projection method. This technique focuses on a population disaggregated into cohorts, a group of people having one or more common characteristics at a point in time and, by subjecting each cohort to class-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and net migration, generates a distribution of survivors and descendants of the original population, at successive intervals of time.Although cohort-survival methods take on a large number of variations, they all are essentially trend-based, dynamic, aspatial models of growth. The temporal element is introduced by a recursive structure which operates over a sequence of unit time intervals. The spatial dimension, when it is included at all, typically is accommodated by replicating the analysis over as many areal units as comprise the study area. Realistically, however, time and space need to be considered jointly in population-forecasting models. The need for interregional models which systematically introduce place-to-place movements and simultaneously consider the spatial as well as the temporal character of interrelated population processes is becoming increasingly apparent.Recently several demographers have taken advantage of the conceptual elegance and computational simplicity of matrix methods of population analysis. Their models, however, assume a "closed" population which is subject only to the processes of fertility and mortality. These, therefore, are not directly applicable to interregional "open" systems in which migration is frequently a much more variable and important contributor to population change than births or deaths. However, a natural extension of the demographer's matrix model allows one to incorporate place-to-place migration and provides an integrated interregional population-forecasting model which easily may be programmed for any of the current generation of digital computers. Such a model is outlined in this paper.     

透视城市拾荒者

以进城中青年农民为主力军的城市拾荒者是集弱势与边缘于一身的社会弱势群体,他们是伴随着中国现代化进程中城市垃圾处理能力滞后而产生的。城市拾荒者在为循环型城市社会的发展做出贡献的同时,也给城市管理带来了一系列的社会问题。我们应加强对城市拾荒者的规范化管理,以发挥他们对城市社会发展所产生的正功能,减少或避免这一群体对社会的负面效应。     

城市化后的村庄改建模式研究

科学的规划能使城市合理发展 ,城市空间的拓展势必导致周边村庄的融入和日后民房的改造。换言之 ,城市规划是当今城市中村庄改造的缘由 ,今后必定也是缓解日益加大的城、村矛盾的重要途径之一。为此 ,本文在阐述当前城市普遍存在的农村改造问题之后 ,对城市中农村的类型和基本特征进行了分析 ,并从规划层面上 ,对今后城市中的村庄改造模式作了探索。     

论女性就业形态多元化的利弊——广东省四城市妇女就业状况调查报告

本文基于作者 2 0 0 1年对广东省广州市、深圳市、肇庆市、清远市四地妇女就业状况的调查 ,深入分析了当前妇女就业中出现的新特点和新现象 ,特别是多元化的就业方式在保障妇女就业权利和提供就业机会等方面产生的利与弊     

Growth of small and intermediate cities in Korea, 1975-1980

"This paper examines the urban growth of 33 small and intermediate Korean cities during 1975-1980 from the ecological perspective. Using the multiple regression analysis, population growth of a city is measured by variables such as industrial structure, distance from a metropolitan city, and educational level of residents in a corresponding city. At the present development stage in Korea, those cities whose industrial structure is more specialized in the transformative sector rather than other sectors have grown more rapidly. The closeness to a metropolitan city and the educational level of residents for each city strongly influence urban growth of small cities."     

Quality of the urban environment as perceived by residents of slow and fast growth cities

Through the vehicle of the Winnipeg and Edmonton Area Surveys of 1981 this paper compares perceptions of the city by its residents in two cities of dramatically different growth rates, holding constant the region of the country, the size of the city, the time of the analysis and the methodology used. The growth rate did influence the evaluations of the attributes of the city by its residents. However, this evaluation of growth was not a significant contributer to overall satisfaction with the city. While levels of satisfaction with the city were similar in the two cities, the contributing variables differed somewhat.     

珠海市老年人生活质量研究

利用2010年珠海市的抽样调查资料,研究珠海市老年人的生活质量。研究结果表明,珠海市老年人的生活质量主要受老年人健康状况、经济收入、精神生活、医疗保险以及社区服务的影响。珠海市的8个城区中,高栏港的因子综合得分排名第一,香洲南屏排名第八。从5个因子的排名看,不同的城区有不同的特点,因此需要采取不同的措施提高老年人的生活质量。     

城市新移民贫困救助和社会保障机制研究

城市新移民是城市化过程中的一个新兴事物,通过对我国城市贫困救助及社会保障制度现状的考察,重新构建了城市新移民的贫困救助和社会保障机制。对于不同类别的城市新移民,社会保障机制的目标不同,对于长期在城市工作,已经有了相对固定住所和工作的城市新移民,社会保障机制的作用应该是通过规范的、系统的制度来保障他们与城市居民一样享受正常的社会保障。对于短期务工、常年流动的城市新移民,社会保障机制的作用是进行贫困救助,帮助他们在没有收入、没有工作、发生意外伤害的时候得到援助。     

Transit boundaries: race and the paradox of immobility within mobile systems

ABSTRACT

The central city is once again hot. Many city areas where poor minorities were left behind during the decades-long suburban growth are experiencing a revival. New high-rise condominiums and other developments are drawing tens of thousands back to city spaces that were once considered undesirable. These ‘return to the city’ trends are supported in part by growth machine engines, such as Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and TIF (Tax Increment Financing) districts, often to the detriment of lower-income minority residents, who still find themselves trapped within the boundaries of spatial inequalities in the city. Drawing on six years of ethnographic fieldwork in Chicago, I show how public transportation is used to buttress the city’s growth machine, while simultaneously maintaining the boundaries of spatial and other types of inequalities. In doing so, I highlight how public transit is used to create and support growth along race (and class) lines. Specifically, I show how mobility and growth for Whites and predominantly White spaces in the city are proactively shaped through favorable new public transit development and revitalization initiatives such as TOD and TIF. At the same time, in predominantly Black and Latinx spaces, where intracommunity public transportation usage is high, new transit related development is below sparse or completely lacking, further fortifying transit and other spatial boundaries.     

成渝都市群城市体系规模分布的实证研究

本文依据分形理论,采用1990—2008年成渝都市群各等级城市非农业人口时间序列样本数据,研究了成渝都市群城市体系规模分布的分形特征。经验分析表明,成渝都市群城市体系规模分布基本满足城市＂位序—规模＂分布规律并具有分形特征,首位城市垄断地位不强,特大城市断层,大城市数量不足,中小城市发育程度较高。最后,本文据此提出了发展和完善成渝都市群城市体系的对策。