组织外部环境不确定性的研究述评

环境不确定性对组织的影响遵循2种逻辑,即效率机制与合法性机制。在总结已有文献对环境不确定性的定义和测量维度的基础上,以及在明确了环境不确定性的概念之后,对有关环境不确定性如何影响组织的文献进行了述评。研究结果表明,不确定性对组织的影响主要体现在制度层、战略和结构3个方面,这些影响有的遵循效率逻辑,有的遵循合法性逻辑。最后,对未来的有关研究提出了建议,即如何对客观环境不确定性进行测量;应继续关注制度环境;尝试用组织社会学中的制度理论解释中国的公司治理实践。     

不确定性环境中组织结构设计

针对现代组织的高度不确定性环境特征 ,从组织决策角度探讨组织结构设计问题 .建立了不确定性环境中组织决策模型 .引入组织结构价值概念 ,采用定性与定量相结合的方法 ,推导出组织环境、组织决策与组织结构三者之间关系的数学表达式 ,给出对不确定性环境中组织结构设计有意义的一些结论 .特定的组织结构设计取决于多种因素 ,最后对这些因素及其对组织结构设计的影响进行了初步研究 .     

管理中的不确定性:一个整合性的多维概念体系

基于现有研究,从哲学层面和类型2个维度将不确定性发展为一个多维的概念体系。从不同层面对不确定性进行了讨论:在哲学本体论层面,不确定性的核心内涵是随机性和无规律性;在认识论层面,不确定性的核心内涵是不可预测性。对不同类型的不确定性进行了分析:状态不确定性侧重于描述环境要素的状态;作用不确定性侧重于描述环境要素之间的关系;回应不确定性侧重于描述应对环境的管理回应。认识论层面不确定性受本体论层面不确定性等环境特征、感知过程和感知者的影响。     

不确定性环境对建设工程项目决策的影响机理研究

大型建设工程项目是维护社会生产和生活的基础,对经济社会的可持续发展,促进和谐社会构建起着重要作用,然而,环境的不确定性和复杂性加剧了大型建设工程项目决策的难度,影响其总体建设目标和预期效益的实现。通过对大型建设工程的决策环境、决策主体进行理论分析,本文构建了不确定性环境对决策和决策效果的影响机理概念模型,并实证分析定量研究了决策环境不确定性对决策效果的影响关系。研究表明,决策环境不确定性对决策效果有直接或间接影响,其中决策信息、社会环境和决策组织对决策效果的影响最为显著,研究结论为我国大型建设工程项目的决策重点考虑因素提供了参考。     

CAS视角下的商业模式设计与组织适应性

基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论的“有序”、“混沌边缘”等概念,引入组织适应性作为结果变量,重新思考了效率型和创新型两类商业模式设计对企业影响的差异.结果表明,企业进行效率型商业模式设计会形成对环境的简单适应性,进行创新型商业模式设计会形成对环境的复杂适应性.进而借鉴“必要多样性定律”和“系统复杂性与环境复杂性匹配观”探讨了组织复杂性和环境不确定性的调节作用,并指出企业进行商业模式设计的选择应以是否与组织复杂性及环境不确定性匹配为依据.当组织结构简单、战略和目标单一的企业处于简单稳定环境时,适合设计效率型商业模式;当组织结构复杂、战略和目标多元化的企业处于复杂动态环境时,适合设计创新型商业模式.     

开放系统视角下组织与环境关系的思考

系统理论发展至今,组织与环境都已发生了变化。组织的结构变得越来越复杂,环境的不确定性也在加强。正是由于环境复杂性的提高,我们在进行组织的讨论时,就很难将环境这一重要因素进行排除。所以本文在开放系统视角下,将组织与环境的关系进行探讨,研究在开放系统视角下组织如何实现自我的发展及壮大。     

领导者真能起到榜样作用吗?——一项基于公共品博弈实验的研究

在政府和非政府组织当中,领导者的榜样真能够起作用吗?本文在公共品博弈中引入了环境不确定性和信息反馈这两个变量对这个问题进行了研究。实验结果发现,领导者榜样所发挥的作用是有限的。领导者榜样失效的原因在于好的领导者遇到了坏的追随者,而好的追随者则遇到了坏的领导者。策略不确定性估计在领导者和追随者的决策过程中扮演着重要的角色,但领导者与追随者的行为存在着系统性的差异,领导者是超完美条件合作者,而追随者是非完美条件合作者。对环境不确定性的高估是普遍存在的,但环境不确定性估计并不总是能够影响决策。信息的过度封锁与过度披露都不利于领导者榜样发挥作用。     

不确定环境下基于Bertrand竞争的企业创新模式比较研究

将技术不确定性与市场不确定性所组成的不确定性概念引入创新过程;在Bertrand竞争市场中,运用战略实物期权、动态博弈等工具对企业创新过程建立了一个两阶段动态博弈模型,得出了创新企业的价值函数,考察了不确定性参数对投资门槛值与破产临界值的影响;最后在技术投入溢出与互补度、创新产品互补度以及合作诚信度等四个参数的综合交互作用下,分析了独立研发、竞争RJV、合作RJV三种典型模式在均衡研发产出、公司利润、行业利润及社会福利方面的差异,得出了模式动态选择的适用条件。已有文献多在静态环境下考虑技术投入溢出参数在企业创新模式选择中的作用,本文研究旨在弥补此不足,同时为企业在不确定环境下进行适宜的创新组织选择提供决策参考。     

网络组织的稳定性与治理机制研究

随着企业外部经营环境竞争加剧、不确定性程度加大,网络组织这种新型的产业组织形态应运而生。网络组织改变了企业之间的短期竞争行为,使成员企业能从中获得协同效应。但由于企业之间复杂的依赖和博弈关系,网络组织会出现不稳定现象,从而使企业达不到预期的合作效果。因此研究网络组织的稳定性具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先对网络组织理论进行阐述,进而分析网络组织稳定性的优点及其影响因素,在此基础上对网络组织的治理机制进行分析研究。     

本土领导者在应对不确定性中的作用——基于王石案例的扎根分析

运用建构主义扎根理论的方法,基于王石领导活动的质性数据,分析了本土领导者面临的不确定性管理挑战,以及领导者在应对不确定性挑战中发挥的作用,提出了一个本土领导者应对不确定性的作用模型.研究结果表明,在应对环境、组织和领导者个人3个方面不确定性挑战时,本土领导者分别发挥了不同作用,即寻找机遇、把握机遇,关注与响应政策变化、应对竞争环境变化;推动组织进化,调动资源危机处理;收放职位权力,形成领导权威,积累管理经验,开展组织外学习.研究结论对本土企业的管理实践具有一定的启示作用.     

企业家创新投资决策的进化博弈分析

本文创建了从单阶段创新投资决策到多阶段创新投资决策的进化博弈均衡模型,将处于相同境况的企业家视为一个群体,将企业家个体的决策置身于企业家群体决策中,则个体企业家选择某种策略从企业家群体角度来看就是以一定的概率选择该种策略。面对高收益与高风险并存的创新投资,企业家进化稳定均衡策略形成不但取决于企业自身的特性,而且依赖于其竞争对手的决策。创新投资具有正的外部性,政府应该建立创新激励制度。     

Imitate Others? Not if We Have the Chance: Competitive Differentiation in Medical Malpractice Insurers' Pricing Decisions under Uncertainty

Several perspectives assert that organizations facing uncertainty tend to imitate other organizations' actions. While one might therefore expect to see great homogeneity across fields characterized by uncertainty, it is surprising that this homogeneity has not been observed more frequently in practice. Research investigating this puzzle has typically focused on the role played by organizational characteristics or the information organizations possess about their environments. Instead, this study turns attention to the information others possess about the organization. To that end, I disaggregate organizational uncertainty into the uncertainty facing decision makers and the uncertainty faced by others about what those decision makers might ultimately do, providing a more fine grained analysis of uncertainty and its impact on competitive action than typically offered in this literature. I suggest that uncertainty in competitors' evaluations of the organization provides an opportunity for the organization to differentiate itself rather than imitate others. I also suggest that this effect is stronger than the effects of the uncertainty facing the decision makers themselves. Related hypotheses are tested on a panel of medical malpractice insurance providers. The study's perspective generates unique predictions regarding imitation and differentiation in this industry and across other contexts featuring both uncertainty and competition.     

网络组织的效率 ———泊松流市场的模型分析

对不确定情况下的服务业网络组织进行研究. 售后服务行业在我国东部大城市已经悄 然出现了一种网络式组织形式,然而其业务量是不确定的,就其面对的市场特点建立了泊松流 模型,用模型对网络组织进行分析,得出网络组织的效率改进主要体现在资产和管理的规模经 济及不确定条件下人员的互补效应.     

Distributed sensemaking in network risk analysis

This article responds to the call advancing risk science as an independent research field, by introducing a conceptual model for risk analysis based on distributed sensemaking. Significant advances in recent decades have expanded the use of risk analysis to almost every organization globally. Continued improvements have been made to our understanding of risk, placing a wide range of contexts under organizational control. This article argues that four dimensions are central in how organizations make sense of uncertainty in their context and hence do risk analysis: the activities the organization engages in, their sensory systems, the role and competence of individuals, and the ability to coordinate information through organizational structures. The structure enables insight into the decision-making process and the dimensions contributing to how organizations perceive risks and uncertainty in a given context. Three examples from the Arctic context illustrate the network risk analysis model's practical application and how it will expose weaknesses in these organizations’ risk analysis and decision-making processes. Finally, the article discusses sensemaking in network risk analysis and how such an approach supports organizations’ ability to perceive, collect, process, and decide on changes in context.     

网络组织的效率 ———泊松流市场的模型分析

对不确定情况下的服务业网络组织进行研究.售后服务行业在我国东部大城市已经悄然出现了一种网络式组织形式,然而其业务量是不确定的,就其面对的市场特点建立了泊松流模型,用模型对网络组织进行分析,得出网络组织的效率改进主要体现在资产和管理的规模经济及不确定条件下人员的互补效应.     

Flexibility, Hierarchy, Markets

The conclusion that organizations need to become more strategically flexible as a response to increasing environmental dynamism and uncertainty has been an important feature of recent contingency theories of organization design. In this literature organizations have been analysed from the perspective of the development of networks of organizations concentrating on their core competencies and contracting among themselves on a stable long-term basis. This model of inter-firm relationships provides an alternative mode of organizational structuring to that arising from vertical integration, which, by contrast, is seen as fostering strategic inflexibility. In the literature on corporate restructuring and changes in ownership form arising from the markets and hierarchies perspective, we see a similar emphasis on the dysfunctional consequences of large-scale bureaucratic organization. Changes in ownership form are seen as a major means of providing more effective managerial control. In this paper we argue that linking the literature on flexibility emanating from contingency theories of organizational design and the markets and hierarchies perspective provides important new insights into current and emerging forms of organization.     

动态能力演化的知识模型与一个中国企业的案例分析

本文提出了一个基于组织知识的动态能力演化模型。在建立了基于知识的企业能力模型,并提出企业能力改变的18种纬度的基础上,本文认为动态能力的演化主要是围绕变异、内部选择、传播和保持4个阶段循环进行。在这个过程中,组织的经营性惯例和学习性惯例都发挥了重要作用,并交织着企业的认知性努力与行为性努力。随后,本文结合湖北京山轻工机械股份有限公司进行了案例分析,并得出了有益的启示。     

The Limits of Flexibility: the Case of UK Television

The organization of the UK television industry has undergone radical change in the last ten years in response to a concerted programme of regulatory change and rapid technological development. It has been seen by some commentators as an exemplar of flexible specialization and of further evidence that mass production methods have become increasingly obsolescent. Vertically disintegrated, flexibly specialized forms of organization are, on this view, best placed to cope with increasing product diversity, competition and uncertainty. This paper argues that the experience of television in the UK bears little resemblance to the model of flexible specialization. Indeed, the response of firms to changing product market conditions has not been to embrace vertical disintegration but to re-establish traditional organizational structures. Transaction-costs analysis, while providing a number of useful insights into the development of organizational structures within television, also fails to take account of the complex web of forces determining the degree of horizontal and vertical integration in the sector.     

走向21世纪的管理学

旨在研究即将迈入21世纪的管理学的发展问题．出于对管理学内涵的不同理解,诸多管理学家对管理学的规定性及其混琅和构成也各持已见．本文则通过比较分析．得出管理学是研究和探讨组织及组织内资源配置的构造、方式及方法的学科,是一门应用性理论学科的结论;提出了自己对于管理学构成的看法,即认为管理学由组织、管理方式方法以及经营三大部分内容组成,并以此为标准对以往管理学的演进历程重新分类界定;在此基础上,分析预测21世纪的管理学发展方向将主要表现在以下3方面：夯实管理学理论体系,形成管理学的方法论以及深化管理学研究内容     

Forecasting in conditions of uncertainty

Has the business environment grown in uncertainty? In this paper the authors suggest that the root problem is not uncertainty but the malevolence of events these past few years. In turn, this has made uncertainty and the techniques developed to cope with its consequences all the more important to the firm. But while improved forecasting may take the difference between a potentially profitable project and corporate disaster, good forecasting by itself is not enough. Most firms would benefit from examining their forecasting performance in relation to strategic decisionmaking and the various options available. The authors conclude that only in an organization where integration between expert forecaster and forecast user has been achieved can the full benefits of improved forecasting be realized.