Quantitative aspects of marriage,fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America: Another application of the coale specifications

This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.     

Politics and fertility: a new approach to population policy analysis

This paper aims to explain why divergentpopulation policies and programs arise in otherwisesimilar countries and to clarify how such policiesrelate to fertility decline. An analysis wasundertaken of demographic and policy change over a 30year period in four pairs of developing countries: Algeria and Tunisia; Bangladesh and Pakistan; thePhilippines and Thailand; and Zambia and Zimbabwe. Insome countries, popular demand for family planningfacilitated changing policy. In others, independentfactors, such as economic crisis or internationalpressure, pushed policy makers into action onpopulation policy, often in the absence of populardemand. In these countries, governments whichidentified a coherent rationale, usually economic, forreducing population growth, tended to develop moresuccessful policies. Strong and financially securecoalitions of policy elites were important in sharingthe political risk associated with such policies. Analysis of these processes has lessons for policymakers and researchers interested in expeditingimplementation of new approaches to population andreproductive health.     

Regional differences in marital fertility in the Netherlands in the second half of the nineteenth century

Abstract In the Netherlands, as in other countries, substantial regional differences in the birth rate have always been the rule rather than the exception. Of course, differences in crude birth rates may be attributed to a number of possible reasons, not all of them of primary demographic interest. For instance, according to the census of 31st December 1899, the number of women per 1,000 men in the province of Drenthe was only 924; in the province of Zuidholland the corresponding number was 1,073. It is clear that, ceteris paribus, the crude birth rate in Zuidholland would be about 7% higher than in Drenthe at that time. In such a case, the difference could reflect differences in economic development or job opportunities, factors not devoid of demographic significance, but only indirectly so.     

Frustrated fertility: a population paradox

This Bulletin examines the causes of subfecundity -- the diminished ability to reproduce -- and its effect today and in the past on the fertility, or actual reproductive performance, of individuals and, hence, populations. By definition, all real populations are subfecund since all experience some degree of involuntary biological factors affecting coitus, conception, or the ability to carry a conceptus to live birth which reduces their fecundity below the estimated biological population maximum of 15 children per woman. Affecting both men and women, these factors fall into 5 categories: genetic factors such as blood group incompatibilities and inherited sickle cell anemia or diabetes; psychopathology, including psychic stress and behavioral disorders (e.g., drug and alcohol abuse); infectious diseases such as gonorrhea, malaria, tuberculosis, and postabortion infection; malnutrrition, including the chronic undernutrition of the 3rd World and the overnutrition of developed societies; and hazards posed by increasing amounts of radiation and toxic chemicals in the environment. Reducing subfecundity requires improved living conditions, avoidance of or protection from known hazards, and adoption of medical advances which now can help 40 to 60% of subfecund couples. But even in the U.S. fertility would certainly rise among the 15% of couples now estimated to be involuntarily childless and the 10% who have fewer children than they want, and among disadvantaged groups, and teenagers.     

Hunger and migration in a rural-traditional area in the nineteenth century

The factors that influenced migration decisions in a nineteenth century rural-traditional area of the Netherlands are assessed. This is done in a micro-setting. Applying a new data set with individual characteristics of both migrants and non-migrants a logit-model is estimated. The analysis supports the revisionist and relatively positive picture of the standard of living in pre-modern rural-traditional areas. Instead of hunger driving the masses away from these areas, it seems to have tied rationally acting people to a socio-economic system that contained buffer mechanisms to cope with short run stresses. Received: 28 April 1998/Received: 26 April 1999     

African-American and white inequality in the nineteenth century American South: a biological comparison

The use of height data to measure living standards is now a well-established method in economic history. By using a new source of nineteenth century Texas state prison records, the present study contrasts the heights of comparable blacks and whites between the Civil War and Reconstruction in the American South. White stature exceeded black stature. Between 1850 and 1870, black stature declined by more than 1 cm but recovered toward the end of the nineteenth century. Postbellum white stature declined by more than 1 1/2 cm over the same period yet never recovered.

New estimates of the vital rates of the United States black population during the nineteenth century

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations studyThe Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000m (0)) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end.     

Birth limitation, late marriage and decline in the natural increase rate of the population]

Birth limitation and late marriage are two major factors which contribute to the reduction of population growth rate. These two factors should be used as the fundamental method for effectively controlling China's population growth. Facts have proved that birth limitation and late marriage are complimentary to each other and should match each other closely. Since late marriage cannot be delayed indefinitely, the average fertility rate for females under the age of 25 in their first marriage may still reach 5-6 children, provided that birth control measures are not taken. Because of this situation, at the same time that late marriage is encouraged, birth control should also be promoted positively. All married couples should be advised to have only one child. In order to ensure the everlasting practice of these two methods, certain policies concerning family planning and birth control should be formulated according to China's current economic situation. These policies include enforcement of an ideological education and social insurance practice in order to solve the problem of the high population growth rate in the countryside and effectively reach the goal of controlling China's population growth.     

From natural fertility to family limitation: The onset of fertility transition in a sample of German villages

Utilizing data from a sample of German village genealogies, it is possible to document the changes in reproductive patterns on the family level that started to take place in Germany during the nineteenth century and formed the basis for the secular decline in fertility which eventually encompassed the entire country. One striking finding from this study was the substantial diversity among the small sample of villages in terms of the timing of the emergence of family limitation. While couples in all villages who married during the last half of the eighteenth century appeared to be characterized predominantly by natural fertility the emergence of family limitation began as early as the turn of the nineteenth century in some places and as late as the end of the nineteenth century in others. Occupational differentials with respect to family limitation were also examined. There is little evidence that changes in birth spacing played an important part in the initial phase of the fertility trnsition. Rather, the underlying process appears to involve a change from fertility patterns that were characterized by the absence of parity-dependent control to one in which attempts to terminate childbearing in response to the number of children already born becomes widespread.     

Birth spacing dynamics in China: The cases of Hebei and Shaanxi provinces

Even as fertility has declined in China in the last several decades, the first and second birth intervals have become shorter over time and the probability of having a second child has increased since the late 1970s. This increase in the probability of conception seems to be contradictory to the Chinese government's birth planning strategy which explicitly stresses timing and parity. Using retrospective survey reports from 1985 in Hebei and Shaanxi provinces, the study explored this paradox. The study revealed several findings: (1) government intervention, especially the one-child policy of the late 1970s, had a strong, unexpected influence on early conception in China; (2) the timing and probability of having a first birth were associated with macrosocial forces and familial relationships; and (3) the timing and probability of having a second birth were associated with biosocial, familial as well as macro-social characteristics.Abbreviations CBR crude birth rate - DPSB Department of Population Statistics, State Statistical Bureau, China - TFR total fertility rate This article is based on a paper presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC, 21–23 March 1991.     

生育文明与我国未来生育率控制

我国的生育率变化一直以来都与生育文明的发展有着密切的关系。深厚的传统生育文化支持着我国农业社会的高生育水平,这在历史上起到过一定的积极作用,但是庞大的人口数量越来越成为我国经济社会发展的包袱。我国现阶段生育率已经在计划生育政策的控制下,达到了一个较低的标准。但是,这种低生育水平还很不稳定,也不可避免的带来了一些社会问题。随着我国经济发展和社会转型,推进生育文明的发展将成为稳定低生育水平,实现适度人口规模的最好方法。     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

Family size and expectations about housing in the later nineteenth century: three Yorkshire towns

This article illustrates how cultural history can deepen the understanding of demographic change, presenting evidence about ways in which rising working-class expectations about appropriate living standards may have created additional pressures on the perceived costs of child-rearing. Among the key areas of family consumption, housing costs are selected for examination. It is shown that higher expectations about appropriate housing quality put pressure on family budgets, augmented by the rising cost of like-for-like housing. The discussion considers expectations about the size of the dwelling and attitudes to furnishing the home, and suggests that these rising expectations helped encourage family limitation. Existing accounts of the fertility decline which stress the role of rising expectations are often too generalised: this article illustrates what can be gained by adding detail and geographical variation.     

Environmental quality and fertility: the effects of plant density,species richness,and plant diversity on fertility limitation

The relationship between the environment and population has been of concern for centuries, and climate change is making this an even more pressing area of study. In poor rural areas, declining environmental conditions may elicit changes in family-related behaviors. This paper explores this relationship in rural Nepal looking specifically at how plant density, species richness, and plant diversity are related to women’s fertility limitation behavior. Taking advantage of a unique data set with detailed micro-level environmental measures and individual fertility behavior, I link geographically weighted measures of flora at one point in time to women’s later contraceptive use as a way to examine this complex relationship. I find a significant, positive relationship between plant density, species richness, and plant diversity and the timing of contraceptive use. Women in poor environmental conditions are less likely to terminate childbearing, or do so later, and therefore more likely to have larger families.     

Demographic responses and socioeconomic structure: Population processes in England and Wales in the nineteenth century

This paper explores some theoretical and empirical aspects related to the theory of change and multiple response. The empirical analysis focuses on 600 relatively small and homogeneous geographical units of England and Wales for the period 1851-1910. These units are classified into six identifiable socioeconomic types and the analysis is male for each of them. Two interrelated tissues are studied. First, a set of explanatory variables, connected either with strain or with factors relieving strain, is constructed. The effects of these explanatory variables on nuptiality, marital fertility, and migration responses are examined for each socioeconomic type, with respect to their significance, intensity, and direction. The patterns of these effects show general consistency with multiphasic response considerations for all socioeconomic types. A significant finding in this part is that migration affects very strongly the intensity of the marital fertility decline response. The second issue deals with theoretically expected patterns of interrelationships among responses in terms of substitutability and complementarity. The theoretical interrelationships are compared with the empirical for each socioeconomic type; and in general, consistency is established. Moreover, these interrelationships can be interpreted for each socioeconomic type in a way that appears to be consistent with multiphasic response considerations. An important finding in this part is that emigration and marital fertility decline are substitute responses in agricultural-based districts. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

The evolution in China's fertility and an analysis of population development]

There have been numerous projections on China's population at the end of century. Their differences are due to different estimations on the effects of fertility determinants. 2 simulation models have been developed, both from micro and macro levels, to estimate the population at the end of the century on the basis of 6 different fertility patterns. 3 possible options for fertility patterns are discussed. 1.) The 1 child per family option means that every couple has 1 child by the year 1989, the population of China will be 1.2 billion in the year 2000. Even if this is a ideal situation, it would not be a feasible policy, as the pressure from the rural population to have more than 1 child has been increasing in recent years. Nevertheless, it is still possible for urban couples to accept having only 1 child. Therefore, encouraging more people to have 1 child should be held as a basic policy. 2.) Under the option of 2 children per family with 2 or 3 years of spacing, the total population in the year 2000 would be 1.2 - 1.4 billion, which is unacceptable in terms of the development situation. 3.) Following a differential fertility policy towards urban, rural, and minority populations would mean that urban couples would have 1 child, rural couples whose first child is a girl or those who are in special circumstance would have 2 children. Minorities would have 2 or 3 children. AMong the above options, number 3 is more likely to be achieved in view of current socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic factors.     

Posterity and population growth: fertility intention among a cohort of Nigerian adolescents

Population growth is probably the greatest global challenge of the twenty-first century and fertility is a central element of this growth. Fertility is a human attribute which depends almost entirely on social, economic, political, cultural and psychological frameworks, making fertility intention an element of what individuals learn from a very young age as part of their socialisation into society. The fundamental significance of socio-psychological, environmental and cultural factors in what adolescents are assimilating on fertility cannot be exaggerated, yet, relevant information is limited. Eight factors deduced from ecological model and theory of planned behaviour were used to predict fertility intention among a cohort of Nigerian adolescents, using cross-sectional design. Mean fertility intention was 4.06 ± 1.34. Age and religion had no effect, but gender did. Self esteem, perceived parental expectation of fertility, attitude towards fertility and peer-related subjective norm are significant predictors. Media and ethnic attitude are insignificant predictors of, but are significantly related to fertility intention. Attitude towards a four-child family and perceived behavioural control yielded insignificant relationships with, and also failed to predict fertility intention. Perceived parental expectation of fertility, an interpersonal factor of the ecological model is the single most important predictor (β = 0.707, R² = 0.506, r = 0.711, and partial r = 0.710). Fertility intention points towards fertility decline, though sluggish and diminutive, thereby failing to reflect the need of Nigeria’s population pyramid to thin out from the base.

     

Using nineteenth century census results: the Colombian censuses of 1835, 1843, and 1851

The author discusses three of the six national censuses taken during the ninteenth century in Colombia--those for 1835, 1843, and 1851. The focus is on the importance of macro patterns generated by the data, the methods recommended to overcome the problems of the censuses, and ways to make the information useful for historical demography.     

Environmental and socioeconomic determinants of neonatal mortality in a northern Italian city in the early nineteenth century

Population and Environment - The research explores the effects of the environment on neonatal mortality in the early nineteenth century, controlling for social and economic factors. Individual...     

Infant mortality and fertility in three Bavarian villages: An analysis of family histories from the 19th century

Abstract Family history data derived from the records of three parishes in Bavaria provide evidence for several important demographic questions when analysed in conjunction with information concerning the prevalent breast-feeding practices. The results suggest strongly that breast feeding can prolong birth intervals substantially. The evidence concerning the independent influence of infant deaths on subsequent birth intervals is inconclusive. It is clear, however, that even if such an influence did exist it was relatively small, compared to the effect of lactation. In addition the results do not lend support to the hypothesis that couples experiencing low child mortality practised family limitation more than couples experiencing high child mortality. In all three parishes, however, fertility appeared to influence infant mortality. Infants born after short intervals were subject to considerably higher mortality risks than infants following longer intervals.