On the Contingent Valuation of Safety and the Safety of Contingent Valuation: Part 1-Caveat Investigator

This article reports the results of two studies aimed at testing and refining a procedure for estimating willingness-to-pay based monetary values of safety using the contingent valuation method. In spite of the fact that respondents were given the opportunity to discuss various safety issues and key concepts in focus group meetings held in advance of individual interviews, and were also given ample opportunity to revise their responses in the light of the overall pattern of these responses, the results show clear evidence of extensive and persistent insensitivity to the scale and scope of the safety improvements that were specified in the contingent valuation questions, as well as vulnerability to framing effects. This clearly casts serious doubt on the reliability and validity of willingness-to-pay based monetary values of safety estimated using conventional contingent valuation procedures.     

Valuing Mortality-Risk Reduction: Using Visual Aids to Improve the Validity of Contingent Valuation

We investigate the validity of contingent valuation (CV) estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL). We test for sensitivity of estimated willingness to pay (WTP) to the magnitude of mortality-risk reduction and for the theoretically predicted proportionality of WTP to risk reduction using alternative visual aids to communicate risk. We find that WTP is sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction for independent subsamples of respondents presented with each of three alternative visual aids, but not for the subsample presented with no visual aid. Estimated WTP is consistent with proportionality to risk reduction for the subsamples presented with a logarithmic scale or an array of 25,000 dots, but not for the subsample receiving a linear scale. These results suggest that CV can provide valid estimates of WTP for mortality-risk reduction if appropriate methods are used to communicate the risk change to respondents.     

Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents

We present the results of a contingent valuation survey eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions. The survey was self-administered using a computer by 930 persons in Hamilton Ontario aged 40 to 75. Visual and audio aides were used to enhance risk comprehension. Mean WTP figures for a contemporaneous risk reduction imply a value of a statistical life of approximately C$l.2 to C$3.8 million (1999 C$). Mean WTP is constant with age up to 70 years, and is about 30 percent lower for persons aged 70 and older. WTP is unaffected by physical health status, but is affected by mental health.     

The Value of a Statistical Life in Transport: Findings from a New Contingent Valuation Study in Sweden

This article presents the results of a contingent valuation study from Sweden aimed at estimating the value of a statistical life (VOSL) in road traffic safety. Data on respondents' own subjective risk was collected by use of visual aids presented in a mail questionnaire. The relationship between willingness-to-pay (WTP) and absolute risk reduction was estimated by using a non-linear, least absolute deviation estimation method. This study generated an income-adjusted VOSL of SEK22.3 million (US$2.6 million). Analysis of WTP's sensitivity to probability variation indicates that in future studies, valuing risk reductions in road traffic, the magnitude of absolute risk and relative risk reductions to consider should be in perceptible range. On addition it should also be possible for respondents to compare the magnitudes of different risk reductions.     

Is Transport Safety More Valuable in the Air?

Using a contingent valuation survey, people's willingness to pay for a given risk reduction is found to be much larger, consistently more than two times as large, when traveling by air compared to by taxi. Follow-up questions revealed that an important reason for this discrepancy is that many experience a higher mental suffering from flying, and that they are willing to pay to reduce this suffering. It was also consistently found that people are willing to pay more for a certain risk reduction if the original price was higher. Policy implications are discussed.     

Social Objects, Causality and Contingent Realism

This paper is a realist argument for the existence of "social objects". Social objects, I argue, are the outcome states of a contingent causal process and in turn posses causal properties. This argument has consequences for what we can mean by realism and consequences for the development of a realist methodology. Realism should abandon the notion of natural necessity in favour of a view that the "real" nature of the social world is contingent and necessity is only revealed in outcome states. This, I argue, has both theoretical and methodological implications and I develop my argument through two case studies, of homelessness and ethnicity.     

Scope insensitivity in health risk reduction studies: A comparison of choice experiments and the contingent valuation method for valuing safer food

Scope insensitivity and embedding are fundamental concerns in contingent valuation studies for health risk reductions. Recently, choice experiments have increasingly been used to obtain contingent willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. We juxtapose the WTP estimates of a choice experiment (CE) to those of the contingent valuation method (CVM) for different health risk reductions and compare them in the extent of scope insensitivity and embedding. WTP using CVM is scope sensitive for single health risks, but embedding is observed for multiple disease risks. In contrast, WTP based on the CE is highly scope sensitive and convex in risk reduction levels.

Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues

Participants in contingent valuation surveys and jurors setting punitive damages in civil trials provide answers denominated in dollars. These answers are better understood as expressions of attitudes than as indications of economic preferences. Well-established characteristics of attitudes and of the core process of affective valuation explain several robust features of dollar responses: high correlations with other measures of attractiveness or aversiveness, insensitivity to scope, preference reversals, and the high variability of dollar responses relative to other measures of the same attitude.     

On the validity of the estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We assess the reliability and validity of estimates of the Value per Statistical Life (VSL) from contingent valuation by administering the same contingent...     

Social Willingness to Pay,Mortality Risks and Contingent Valuation

The Willingness-to-Pay approach is the basic justification for the use of the Contingent Valuation method to evaluate public mortality risk reduction programs. However, aggregating unweighted willingness-to-pay is a valid method only when individuals have the same marginal value of money, an unrealistic assumption in the presence of heterogeneity. We show that heterogeneity on wealth and baseline risk (respectively on risk reduction) leads to systematically overestimate (respectively underestimate) the social value of a risk reduction program. Using a recently published Contingent Valuation analysis, we find this overestimation to be quite modest though, approximately 15% in an upper bound case.     

Performance Concern,Contingent Self‐worth,and Responses to Repeated Achievement Failure in Second Graders

Individual differences in emotion, cognitions, and task choice following achievement failure are found among four‐ to seven‐year‐olds. However, neither performance deterioration during failure nor generalization after failure—aspects of the helpless pattern in 10‐year‐olds—have been reliably demonstrated in this age group. In the present study, 78 second graders worked on a series of unsolvable and solvable puzzles and then on a figure‐matching task. We assessed levels of performance concern and performance‐contingent self‐worth, and their relations to performance during and after failure. As predicted, performance concern and performance‐contingent self‐worth were independent self‐regulatory processes. Performance concern was related to strategy use during and after failure and performance‐contingent self‐worth was related to postfailure performance. These results provide empirical support for Burhans and Dweck's model of the origins of individual differences in motivation. Similarities in behaviors and mechanisms of effect for children's and adults' responses to failure are discussed.     

国际资产评估体系及其差异融合的研究

目前,依照评估目的、评估内容等划分标准,国际资产评估业基本上可以划分为两大评估体系,即一是以英国为代表的不动产评估体系;二是以美国为代表的综合评估(尤其是企业价值评估)体系。我国在评估体系上,具有两大评估体系的特点,研究国际资产评估体系对我国评估理论建设有着积极的意义。     

Contingent Eclecticism

For more than a century, methodological diversity within the social sciences has been the source of recurrent paradigm wars, and no obvious winner seems to be in sight. The aim of this article is to explore the contingencies underlying this diversity. It is argued that the shared condition of complexity forces us to adopt a pragmatic perspective from which even relevant ontological and epistemological assumptions should be thought of as contextual rather than absolute. In particular, the extent to which social causality is perceived as stable and universal vs. dynamic and contextual and the extent to which research‐related reflexivity is an issue appear to set apart the different approaches. Towards the end of the article examples of methodological fit and misfit are provided to illustrate the relevancy of the “contingent eclecticism” observed in practice.     

The Role of Social Distrust in Risk-Benefit Analysis: A Study of the Siting of a Hazardous Waste Disposal Facility

Distrust of social institutions is becoming an important component of risk communication and policy analysis. To assess the impact of social distrust on decision making, we examine the role of distrust of information sources on the willingness to accept a hazardous waste disposal facility in one's neighborhood. Using a prospective-reference utility model, distrust of information sources is analyzed a possible influence on individual choice in a risk-benefit tradeoff. Using contingent valuation survey data on the siting of a hazardous waste disposal facility, we find that respondents are particularly distrustful of both governmental officials and waste disposal businesses. We find that social distrust increases the perceived risk of a facility and influences the likelihood of accepting a referendum to site a hazardous waste disposal facility. The level of compensation offered in the contingent valuation scenario also is found to influence a respondent's risk perception.     

Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: A study in the headline method

Respondents were shown brief statements (“headlines”) referring to various threats to the environment or to public health, and other public issues. An intervention to deal with each problem was also introduced by a single sentence. Some respondents were asked to indicate their willingness to pay for the interventions by voluntary contributions. Others indicated their opinion of the intervention on a conventional rating scale, rated the personal satisfaction of contributing to it, or rated the importance of the problem. Group averages of these response measures were obtained for a large set of issues. Computed over issues, the rank-order correlations between the different measures were very high, suggesting that group averages of WTP and of other opinion statements are measures of the same public attitudes. Observed preference reversals and violations of monotonicity in contributions are better explained by a concept of attitude than by the notion of economic value that underlies the contingent valuation method. Contributions and purchases do not follow the same logic. Possible implications for the contingent valuation method are discussed.     

价值评价的本质

评价性认识不同于知识性认识的特殊本质是通过其特殊对象、结构和结果等表现出来的。评价不仅是评价主体对客现存在的价值关系系统的反映和建构,而且同时表达了人们的态度和情感。因此,评价是一种主体性很强的观念活动。     

The value of improved road safety

We report the results of a contingent valuation study for finding a conservative estimate of the value-of-statistical-life in an urban road safety context in Sweden. We estimate the value of both a private-good device and a public-good safety program. The reduction of risk is communicated with a “community analogy” representation of the “Vision Zero” target of the national traffic-safety policy. According to this target, the road-traffic system should be designed so as to prevent accidents when they happen to lead to fatalities or severe injuries. We use the “certainty approach” for ex-post correction of results to remove or mitigate hypothetical bias of responses. As expected we find insensitivity of responses in the full sample to the size of the risk reduction being valued. By our approach we can compute a conservative estimate, based on answers from fully confident respondents, of the value of the largest possible safety enhancement (i.e. fulfilment of the “Vision Zero”). This lower bound estimate indicates a higher average willingness-to-pay for public safety-improving measures than currently assumed in benefit-cost assessments. We also find that the willingness to pay is considerably lower within a public-good than a private-good framework and a weak indication of sensitivity to scale among the most confident respondents. JEL Codes H43 · I18 · Q51     

The Role of Distributional Coalitions in Welfare Regimes: Chile, Costa Rica and El Salvador

Do social policies in Latin America promote or discourage distribution? And if they do promote distribution, are coalitions a prerequisite? Drawing from a typology of welfare regimes elaborated for 18 Latin American countries, this article explores responses to these questions by addressing three emblematic cases: Chile, Costa Rica and El Salvador – that is, countries where the management of social risks primarily revolves around markets, states and families, respectively. Although the article is exploratory, findings suggest that societal coalitions have been, and are likely to continue to be, weak in market welfare regimes, strong in state welfare regimes and contingent to policy sectors in familialistic welfare regimes.     

试论钱钟书"六法"失读说 --兼与"气韵生动"说商榷

关于谢赫论画有“六法”的标点问题 ,存有两种不同的意见。钱钟书“六法”失读说 ,并从多方面进行了梳理和阐释。对当前较为流行的“气韵生动”说 ,在提出质疑的同时进行了较为细致的辨正。指出“气韵”比“气韵生动”更准确、周延、规范 ,更符合谢赫的本意     

"语-图"互文之中叙述主体的生成及其特征

本文从语言和图像这两种叙述媒介的各自特征及其互文关系入手,重新全面而细致地分析了有关叙述主体的诸问题,尤其着重分析了"语-图"互文语境中叙述主体的生成特征及其所影响的中西不同的艺术风貌。这一研究不仅弥补了西方叙事学有关"叙述者"问题的研究缺失,也为我们进一步探究叙述美学拓展了一个新的视界。