Growth versus Distribution: Does the Pattern of Growth Matter?

Despite the fashion for pro‐poor growth, there remains no consensus as to its meaning. This article proposes three possible definitions, and examines the pattern of growth over time and in different world regions. The growth of the poor's income can be broken down into a growth effect and a distribution effect. In 143 growth episodes, it is found that the growth effect dominates. However, in over a quarter of cases changes in distribution played a stronger role than overall growth in increasing income for the poor. Econometric analysis of growth regressions for each population quintile supports the idea that openness benefits everyone, but indicates a robust perverse relationship with governance. There is also evidence of a trade‐off between growth and distribution, suggesting that attention to distribution will be better for the poor than going for growth.     

Why employment matters: Reviving growth and reducing inequality

The global economic crisis has led to a sharp slowdown in growth and an even greater slowdown in employment creation. The resulting deterioration in the quality of employment has exacerbated the longer‐term trend of rising inequality. Jobless growth has dampened output growth through a worsening income distribution. Wages are costs on the supply side but are also incomes on the demand side, so that profit‐led growth and wage‐led growth are complements, not substitutes. Thus, growth can create jobs, while added jobs can drive growth. More employment and better jobs can also mitigate rising inequality. If macroeconomic policies focus on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth, rather than on price stability and balanced budgets, employment would revive growth and reduce inequality.     

Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?

Inflation has been low when productivity growth has been high. This occurs because the Federal Reserve has not adjusted nominal income growth in response to changes in productivity growth, implying that an acceleration in trend productivity growth leads to a deceleration in inflation. The model's predictions are confirmed: (1) Inflation should fall when trend productivity growth rises, and (2) nominal income and wage growth should not change with trend productivity. The model also implies that productivity growth enters a Phillips curve relationship as a proxy for inflation expectations. Thus, estimates of the NAIRU should fall when productivity growth accelerates.     

Growth Patterns in the CIS-8: A Political Economy Approach

On the whole GDP growth is usually considered robust in the CIS-8. However, there are remarkable differences in the quality of growth performances between the countries in the region. These differences cast doubts on the sustainability of the recent growth performance in some Caspian/Caucasian countries. This paper tries to develop a basic understanding of the different qualities of growth performance other than GDP growth rates. Therefore, we distinguish between volume-driven and efficiency-driven growth. Taking into account different resource endowments, we identify different patterns of physical capital accumulation and development of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. The results of our fixed effects model indicate that governance has a significant positive effect on TFP and GDP per capita growth, whereas our results for regime type indicate a non-linear relationship. Therefore, we conclude that institutional quality seems to be the major determinant causing efficiency-driven growth and is thus of major importance when assessing the sustainability of growth paths in the region.     

包容性增长：中国经济从量变向质变切换

“包容性增长”概念的提出,正当其时。包容性增长最基本的含义是公平合理地分享经济增长。中国经济、社会需要科学发展,需要“包容性增长”,就当下及未来一段时间而言,关键是如何将这一概念融入经济、社会发展的政策与实践中。倡导包容性增长须去经济增长的GDP化;践行包容性增长必须优先开发人力资本;强化包容性增长需要加快实现基本公共服务均等化;实现包容性增长需要着力推进城乡发展一体化;推进包容性增长需要深化收入分配制度改革;加快包容性增长需要始终追求社会公平正义。     

Uganda: No More Pro‐poor Growth?

This article explores changing growth regimes in Uganda, from pro‐poor growth in the 1990s to growth without poverty reduction, actually even with a slight increase in poverty, after 2000. Not surprisingly, it finds that good agricultural performance is the key determinant of direct pro‐poor growth in the 1990s, while lower agricultural growth is the root cause of the recent increase in poverty. At the same time, after 2000 low agricultural growth appears to have induced important employment shifts out of agriculture, which have dampened the increase in poverty. The article also assesses the indirect form of pro‐poor growth by analysing the incidence of public spending and the tax system, and finds that indirect pro‐poor growth has been achieved to only a limited extent.     

Negotiating With the Growth Machine: Community Benefits Agreements and Value‐Conscious Growth

Scholars have extended, challenged, and molded growth machine theory to examine growth—in terms of population, basic industry, labor force participation, commerce, financial activity, and land development—in a variety of contexts. The theory's core, however, has remained the same: cities are conceptualized as growth machines, which consist of unified and powerful growth coalitions. These coalitions pursue a pro‐growth agenda, seeking to enhance the exchange value of local land and property. They often face opposition from local residents, who are more oriented toward use values of land. Resident opposition, however, tends to be unsuccessful in the face of large‐scale commercial development. Aware of this, communities across the country are pursuing new strategies to address development projects in their backyards. In particular, some have formed coalitions to negotiate for benefits from developers through legally binding community benefits agreements (CBAs). Drawing from a case study of Pittsburgh's first CBA, this article analyzes the implications of CBAs for pro‐growth agendas. Pittsburgh's CBA surrounded the construction of a professional sports facility, a development project that presents an ideal example of growth processes in today's cities. Ultimately, CBAs can achieve “value‐conscious” growth, but they do not fundamentally alter dominant standards of growth or growth machine processes.     

Growth hormone,somatomedins and men's health

According to current basic science as well as the clinical literature, human growth hormone has become an important topic in the field of anti-aging medicine. It is well known that the administration of human growth hormone compensates for the dwarfism syndrome in growth hormone-deficient children and growth hormone is also established as a substitution therapy for adults with pituitary deficiency. The effects mediated by growth hormone comprise an increase in muscle mass, a decrease in body fat, improved physical condition, oxygen consumption and overall quality of life, an improvement of the ratio of high-density lipoprotein to low-density lipoprotein, as well as an increase in bone density. Due to the insulin antagonistic effect of growth hormone as well as its insulin-like growth factor-1-mediated mitogenic effect, there is reason to doubt the safety of administering growth hormone outside the framework of approved indications. In an ongoing study, we are evaluating whether growth hormone and somatomedins might be of importance in the regulation of male sexual performance, including penile erection.     

GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH

Using a simple stochastic growth model that nests both exogenous and endogenous growth, this paper shows that the growth rate should be mean stationary if growth is exogenous and difference stationary if growth is endogenous and any variable affecting investment is difference stationary. Permanent changes in the share of output devoted to government consumption should permanently affect the growth rate if and only if, growth is endogenous. I test these implications and find no evidence that growth is endogenous. Furthermore, even if growth is endogenous, the evidence indicates that its degree of endogeneity is likely to be small.     

An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth

Economists and political scientists have long maintained that there exists a one-way relationship between the size of government and economic growth. That is, it is hypothesized that economic growth is the cause of government expenditure growth and not the other way around. New research, based on the Keynesian paradigm, suggests that the causality runs from growth in government spending to growth in GDP. Concern with causality has spawned a growing body of new research by Landau (1983 and 1986), Kormendi and McGuire (1985), Singh and Sahni (1984), Marsden (1984), Conte and Darrat (1988), and Ram (1986). While some of these studies support the Keynesian paradigm, others find contrary evidence.In this study, we use Korean data to conduct causality tests of Wagner's law. Further, we develop a model consisting of a government growth equation and a GDP growth equation. Again, using Korean data, we estimate these equations and compare the results with those of Wagnerian causality tests. We conclude that the Korean government expenditures have not contributed to economic growth.     

Growth and Inflation Disparities in Corridor V

The paper offers a brief discussion about the role of transport infrastructure in the current growth strategy followed by the European Union. As a corridor is the locus where transport infrastructure and growth should interact more effectively, the central part of the Corridor V is considered as an interesting case study. A growth scenario for eight countries is provided to show that wide growth disparities are to be expected during the next decade. The final part of the paper speculates about inflation differentials that are likely to emerge when growth differentials tend to persist inside a monetary union. As the Euro zone will be enlarged to host fast-growers in Corridor V such as Slovenia (maybe as soon as 2007), Hungary, and the Slovak Republic, growth differentials and the single monetary policy could make it difficult to deliver a common monetary environment.     

Race differences in depressive symptoms: a dynamic perspective on stress exposure and vulnerability

The existence, nature, and strength of race differences in mental health remain unclear after several decades of research. In this research, we examine black-white differences in the relationship between acute stressors and depressive symptoms. We reframe the stress exposure and differential vulnerability hypotheses in the context of long-term trajectories of stress and depression, and we hypothesize that trajectories of stress growth will be associated with trajectories of depressive symptom growth. Using latent growth curve analysis of a sample of 1,972 older persons interviewed three times at three-year intervals, we test the hypotheses that (1) growth in exposure to loss-related events will predict growth in depressive symptoms, and (2) African Americans will experience greater stress growth than whites. Results support the hypotheses. Stress growth exhibited a linear increase for blacks but not for whites, and predicted depression growth for both races, but explained more variance for blacks than for whites.     

WHO QUITS NEXT? FIRM GROWTH IN GROWING ECONOMIES

We document novel facts about the relationship between aggregate growth and firm dynamics using a large set of countries. We argue that firm employment patterns are not necessarily informative about cross‐country differences in aggregate growth because they are induced by changes in the productivity of a firm relative to others. In contrast, aggregate growth is linked to average firm‐level productivity growth and firm age. We formalize this intuition through a tractable model of endogenous aggregate growth and firm dynamics where firms realize positive returns to investment with some probability. We find that cross‐country disparities in this probability can account for two‐thirds of the variation in aggregate growth. (JEL D21, D22, E23, O4)     

Healthy, educated and wealthy: A primer on the impact of public and private welfare expenditures on economic growth

In this paper, we provide first evidence of the impact of public and private expenditures in health and education on economic growth, via their influence on people's health, skills and knowledge. We consider a growth accounting framework in order to test whether countries that devote a larger amount of resources to the consumption of health and educational services experience higher growth rates. We also test whether the effects on economic growth of public expenditure in health and education differ from those of private expenditure. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel of 19 OECD countries observed between 1971 and 1998. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that health and education expenditure affects positively growth. The estimated impact is stronger for health than for education. More importantly, we find some evidence that public expenditure influences GDP growth more than private expenditure.     

Patterns of Growth in Welfare Bureaucracies*

This longitudinal study of the growth of forty-six state welfare departments takes as a point of departure a closed system model of organizational growth. The various components (central office size, managerial components, caseworker component, clerical component) are analyzed in terms of (1) the relationship between the initial size of a component and its growth rate; (2) a comparison of different rates of growth for different components; and (3) the influence of increased work load and environmental complexity on the growth of components. The findings indicate that, for the central office, managerial, and clerical components, the initial size and growth rate are negatively related. The casework component accounts for the greatest amount of total organizational growth and is directly affected by increased work load. Finally, the growth of the managerial component is directly influenced by both increased work load and environmental complexity (i.e., urbanization).     

POVERTY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TRICKLE DOWN PETERS OUT

Previous studies have found that economic growth tends to "trickle down" to poor families. This study investigates whether use of a relative definition of poverty eliminates the impact of economic growth on the incidence of poverty of various demographic groups and whether a decrease in the impact of growth has occurred since 1964. With the exception of families with male heads, economic growth no longer affects poverty irrespective of whether a relative or absolute definition of poverty is used. Our findings indicate that the contribution of growth has been overstated, that much of the past success has been illusory, and that poverty will be more intractable in the future.     

Why Agriculture Remains a Viable Means of Poverty Reduction in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Case of Ethiopia

Although there is much empirical evidence of the importance of agricultureled economic growth, there is a renewed emphasis in development circles on the industrial sector as the main driver of growth, even for the low‐income countries of sub‐Saharan Africa. This article applies a simplified model of agricultural growth linkages to illustrate the importance of agricultural growth for increasing employment and accelerating poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Achieving rapid agricultural growth, however, will require the engagement of small commercial farmers, large enough to adopt new technologies and produce significant marketed surpluses, but small and numerous enough to have spending patterns that drive a large, vibrant rural non‐farm sector.     

Does the sectoral composition of growth affect child stunting reductions?

This article uses a natural experiment based on random and exogenous variations in temperature to examine whether the sectoral composition of growth has an effect on child stunting reductions. Agricultural growth is central to food security strategies in developing countries, as it is often considered the most effective way to fight (child) undernutrition. The evidence base to support the putative superior role of agricultural growth is, however, relatively weak, possibly because studies have ignored growth faltering. Accounting for the latter, we find that while both agricultural and non‐agricultural growth decrease stunting, agricultural growth is significantly superior to non‐agricultural growth in this regard. The estimated impacts are large, in that a 10% increase in agricultural GDP per capita reduces child stunting by 9.6% (as opposed to 8.4% for non‐agricultural).     

FISCAL STRUCTURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

Our paper systematically examines the effects of fiscal structure on economic growth. We find that for developing countries, debt-financed increases in government expenditure retard growth and tax-financed increases stimulate growth, while for developed countries, debt-financed increases in government expenditure do not affect growth and tax-financed increases lower growth. We impose the government budget constraint on the regression equations so that the precise changes in fiscal policy can be identified (e.g., the effect of a debt-financed increase in health expenditure), employing a pooled cross-section, time-series sample and fixed- and random-effect methods. (JEL 04, E6)     

The Effect of Recessions on Gambling Expenditures

This article examines the influence of the business cycle on expenditures of three major types of legalized gambling activities: Casino gambling, lottery, and pari-mutuel wagering. Empirical results are obtained using monthly aggregated US per capita consumption time series for the period 1959.01–2010.08. Among the three gambling activities only lottery consumption appears to be recession-proof. This series is characterized by a vast and solid growth that exceeds the growth in income and the growth in other gambling sectors. Casino gambling expenditures show a positive growth during expansions and no growth during recessions. Hence, the loss in income during recessions affects casino gambling. However, income shocks which are not directly related to the business cycle do not influence casino gambling expenditures. Pari-mutuel wagering displays an overall negative trend and its average growth rate is smaller than the growth in income, especially during recessions. The findings of this article provide important implications for the gambling industry and for local governments.