Conditional density estimation using the local Gaussian correlation

Let \(\mathbf {X} = (X_1,\ldots ,X_p)\) be a stochastic vector having joint density function \(f_{\mathbf {X}}(\mathbf {x})\) with partitions \(\mathbf {X}_1 = (X_1,\ldots ,X_k)\) and \(\mathbf {X}_2 = (X_{k+1},\ldots ,X_p)\). A new method for estimating the conditional density function of \(\mathbf {X}_1\) given \(\mathbf {X}_2\) is presented. It is based on locally Gaussian approximations, but simplified in order to tackle the curse of dimensionality in multivariate applications, where both response and explanatory variables can be vectors. We compare our method to some available competitors, and the error of approximation is shown to be small in a series of examples using real and simulated data, and the estimator is shown to be particularly robust against noise caused by independent variables. We also present examples of practical applications of our conditional density estimator in the analysis of time series. Typical values for k in our examples are 1 and 2, and we include simulation experiments with values of p up to 6. Large sample theory is established under a strong mixing condition.     

Hypotheses testing about the drift parameter in linear stochastic differential equation driven by stable processes

In this paper, we consider the problem of hypotheses testing about the drift parameter \(\theta \) in the process \(\text {d}Y^{\delta }_{t} = \theta \dot{f}(t)Y^{\delta }_{t}\text {d}t + b(t)\text {d}L^{\delta }_{t}\) driven by symmetric \(\delta \)-stable Lévy process \(L^{\delta }_{t}\) with \(\dot{f}(t)\) being the derivative of a known increasing function f(t) and b(t) being known as well. We consider the hypotheses testing \(H_{0}: \theta \le 0\) and \(K_{0}: \theta =0\) against the alternatives \(H_{1}: \theta >0\) and \(K_{1}: \theta \ne 0\), respectively. For these hypotheses, we propose inverse methods, which are motivated by sequential approach, based on the first hitting time of the observed process (or its absolute value) to a pre-specified boundary or two boundaries until some given time. The applicability of these methods is illustrated. For the case \(Y^{\delta }_{0}=0\), we are able to calculate the values of boundaries and finite observed times more directly. We are able to show the consistencies of proposed tests for \(Y^{\delta }_{0}\ge 0\) with \(\delta \in (1,2]\) and for \(Y^{\delta }_{0}=0\) with \(\delta \in (0,2]\) under quite mild conditions.     

A discrepancy bound for deterministic acceptance-rejection samplers beyond $$N^{-1/2}$$ in dimension 1

In this paper we consider an acceptance-rejection (AR) sampler based on deterministic driver sequences. We prove that the discrepancy of an N element sample set generated in this way is bounded by \(\mathcal {O} (N^{-2/3}\log N)\), provided that the target density is twice continuously differentiable with non-vanishing curvature and the AR sampler uses the driver sequence \(\mathcal {K}_M= \{( j \alpha , j \beta ) ~~ mod~~1 \mid j = 1,\ldots ,M\},\) where \(\alpha ,\beta \) are real algebraic numbers such that \(1,\alpha ,\beta \) is a basis of a number field over \(\mathbb {Q}\) of degree 3. For the driver sequence \(\mathcal {F}_k= \{ ({j}/{F_k}, \{{jF_{k-1}}/{F_k}\} ) \mid j=1,\ldots , F_k\},\) where \(F_k\) is the k-th Fibonacci number and \(\{x\}=x-\lfloor x \rfloor \) is the fractional part of a non-negative real number x, we can remove the \(\log \) factor to improve the convergence rate to \(\mathcal {O}(N^{-2/3})\), where again N is the number of samples we accepted. We also introduce a criterion for measuring the goodness of driver sequences. The proposed approach is numerically tested by calculating the star-discrepancy of samples generated for some target densities using \(\mathcal {K}_M\) and \(\mathcal {F}_k\) as driver sequences. These results confirm that achieving a convergence rate beyond \(N^{-1/2}\) is possible in practice using \(\mathcal {K}_M\) and \(\mathcal {F}_k\) as driver sequences in the acceptance-rejection sampler.     

Rate of uniform consistency for a class of mode regression on functional stationary ergodic data

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic properties of a class of kernel conditional mode estimates whenever functional stationary ergodic data are considered. To be more precise on the matter, in the ergodic data setting, we consider a random elements (X, Z) taking values in some semi-metric abstract space \(E\times F\). For a real function \(\varphi \) defined on the space F and \(x\in E\), we consider the conditional mode of the real random variable \(\varphi (Z)\) given the event “\(X=x\)”. While estimating the conditional mode function, say \(\theta _\varphi (x)\), using the well-known kernel estimator, we establish the strong consistency with rate of this estimate uniformly over Vapnik–Chervonenkis classes of functions \(\varphi \). Notice that the ergodic setting offers a more general framework than the usual mixing structure. Two applications to energy data are provided to illustrate some examples of the proposed approach in time series forecasting framework. The first one consists in forecasting the daily peak of electricity demand in France (measured in Giga-Watt). Whereas the second one deals with the short-term forecasting of the electrical energy (measured in Giga-Watt per Hour) that may be consumed over some time intervals that cover the peak demand.     

Random projections for Bayesian regression

This article deals with random projections applied as a data reduction technique for Bayesian regression analysis. We show sufficient conditions under which the entire d-dimensional distribution is approximately preserved under random projections by reducing the number of data points from n to \(k\in O({\text {poly}}(d/\varepsilon ))\) in the case \(n\gg d\). Under mild assumptions, we prove that evaluating a Gaussian likelihood function based on the projected data instead of the original data yields a \((1+O(\varepsilon ))\)-approximation in terms of the \(\ell _2\) Wasserstein distance. Our main result shows that the posterior distribution of Bayesian linear regression is approximated up to a small error depending on only an \(\varepsilon \)-fraction of its defining parameters. This holds when using arbitrary Gaussian priors or the degenerate case of uniform distributions over \(\mathbb {R}^d\) for \(\beta \). Our empirical evaluations involve different simulated settings of Bayesian linear regression. Our experiments underline that the proposed method is able to recover the regression model up to small error while considerably reducing the total running time.     

On comparison of dispersion matrices of estimators under a constrained linear model

We introduce some new mathematical tools in the analysis of dispersion matrices of the two well-known OLSEs and BLUEs under general linear models with parameter restrictions. We first establish some formulas for calculating the ranks and inertias of the differences of OLSEs’ and BLUEs’ dispersion matrices of parametric functions under the general linear model \({\mathscr {M}}= \{\mathbf{y}, \ \mathbf{X }\pmb {\beta }, \ \pmb {\Sigma }\}\) and the constrained model \({\mathscr {M}}_r = \{\mathbf{y}, \, \mathbf{X }\pmb {\beta }\, | \, \mathbf{A }\pmb {\beta }= \mathbf{b}, \ \pmb {\Sigma }\}\), where \(\mathbf{A }\pmb {\beta }= \mathbf{b}\) is a consistent linear matrix equation for the unknown parameter vector \(\pmb {\beta }\) to satisfy. As applications, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for many equalities and inequalities of OLSEs’ and BLUEs’ dispersion matrices to hold under \({\mathscr {M}}\) and \({\mathscr {M}}_r\).     

Automated selection of <Emphasis Type="Italic">r</Emphasis> for the <Emphasis Type="Italic">r</Emphasis> largest order statistics approach with adjustment for sequential testing

The r largest order statistics approach is widely used in extreme value analysis because it may use more information from the data than just the block maxima. In practice, the choice of r is critical. If r is too large, bias can occur; if too small, the variance of the estimator can be high. The limiting distribution of the r largest order statistics, denoted by GEV\(_r\), extends that of the block maxima. Two specification tests are proposed to select r sequentially. The first is a score test for the GEV\(_r\) distribution. Due to the special characteristics of the GEV\(_r\) distribution, the classical chi-square asymptotics cannot be used. The simplest approach is to use the parametric bootstrap, which is straightforward to implement but computationally expensive. An alternative fast weighted bootstrap or multiplier procedure is developed for computational efficiency. The second test uses the difference in estimated entropy between the GEV\(_r\) and GEV\(_{r-1}\) models, applied to the r largest order statistics and the \(r-1\) largest order statistics, respectively. The asymptotic distribution of the difference statistic is derived. In a large scale simulation study, both tests held their size and had substantial power to detect various misspecification schemes. A new approach to address the issue of multiple, sequential hypotheses testing is adapted to this setting to control the false discovery rate or familywise error rate. The utility of the procedures is demonstrated with extreme sea level and precipitation data.     

A characterization of geometric distribution based on weak records

Let \({\{X_n, n\geq 1\}}\) be a sequence of independent and identically distributed non-degenerated random variables with common cumulative distribution function F. Suppose X ₁ is concentrated on 0, 1, . . . , N ≤ ∞ and P(X ₁ = 1) > 0. Let \({X_{U_w(n)}}\) be the n-th upper weak record value. In this paper we show that for any fixed m ≥ 2, X ₁ has Geometric distribution if and only if \({X_{U_{w}(m)}\mathop=\limits^d X_1+\cdots+X_m ,}\) where \({\underline{\underline{d}}}\) denotes equality in distribution. Our result is a generalization of the case m = 2 obtained by Ahsanullah (J Stat Theory Appl 8(1):5–16, 2009).     

A comparison of efficient approximations for a weighted sum of chi-squared random variables

In many applications, the cumulative distribution function (cdf) \(F_{Q_N}\) of a positively weighted sum of N i.i.d. chi-squared random variables \(Q_N\) is required. Although there is no known closed-form solution for \(F_{Q_N}\), there are many good approximations. When computational efficiency is not an issue, Imhof’s method provides a good solution. However, when both the accuracy of the approximation and the speed of its computation are a concern, there is no clear preferred choice. Previous comparisons between approximate methods could be considered insufficient. Furthermore, in streaming data applications where the computation needs to be both sequential and efficient, only a few of the available methods may be suitable. Streaming data problems are becoming ubiquitous and provide the motivation for this paper. We develop a framework to enable a much more extensive comparison between approximate methods for computing the cdf of weighted sums of an arbitrary random variable. Utilising this framework, a new and comprehensive analysis of four efficient approximate methods for computing \(F_{Q_N}\) is performed. This analysis procedure is much more thorough and statistically valid than previous approaches described in the literature. A surprising result of this analysis is that the accuracy of these approximate methods increases with N.     

Bayes and maximum likelihood for $$L^1$$-Wasserstein deconvolution of Laplace mixtures

We consider the problem of recovering a distribution function on the real line from observations additively contaminated with errors following the standard Laplace distribution. Assuming that the latent distribution is completely unknown leads to a nonparametric deconvolution problem. We begin by studying the rates of convergence relative to the \(L^2\)-norm and the Hellinger metric for the direct problem of estimating the sampling density, which is a mixture of Laplace densities with a possibly unbounded set of locations: the rate of convergence for the Bayes’ density estimator corresponding to a Dirichlet process prior over the space of all mixing distributions on the real line matches, up to a logarithmic factor, with the \(n^{-3/8}\log ^{1/8}n\) rate for the maximum likelihood estimator. Then, appealing to an inversion inequality translating the \(L^2\)-norm and the Hellinger distance between general kernel mixtures, with a kernel density having polynomially decaying Fourier transform, into any \(L^p\)-Wasserstein distance, \(p\ge 1\), between the corresponding mixing distributions, provided their Laplace transforms are finite in some neighborhood of zero, we derive the rates of convergence in the \(L^1\)-Wasserstein metric for the Bayes’ and maximum likelihood estimators of the mixing distribution. Merging in the \(L^1\)-Wasserstein distance between Bayes and maximum likelihood follows as a by-product, along with an assessment on the stochastic order of the discrepancy between the two estimation procedures.     

New recursive estimators of the time-average variance constant

Estimation of the time-average variance constant (TAVC) of a stationary process plays a fundamental role in statistical inference for the mean of a stochastic process. Wu (2009) proposed an efficient algorithm to recursively compute the TAVC with \(O(1)\) memory and computational complexity. In this paper, we propose two new recursive TAVC estimators that can compute TAVC estimate with \(O(1)\) computational complexity. One of them is uniformly better than Wu’s estimator in terms of asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) at a cost of slightly higher memory complexity. The other preserves the \(O(1)\) memory complexity and is better then Wu’s estimator in most situations. Moreover, the first estimator is nearly optimal in the sense that its asymptotic MSE is \(2^{10/3}3^{-2} \fallingdotseq 1.12\) times that of the optimal off-line TAVC estimator.     

Wavelet regression estimations with strong mixing data

Using a wavelet basis, we establish in this paper upper bounds of wavelet estimation on \( L^{p}({\mathbb {R}}^{d}) \) risk of regression functions with strong mixing data for \( 1\le p<\infty \). In contrast to the independent case, these upper bounds have different analytic formulae for \(p\in [1, 2]\) and \(p\in (2, +\infty )\). For \(p=2\), it turns out that our result reduces to a theorem of Chaubey et al. (J Nonparametr Stat 25:53–71, 2013); and for \(d=1\) and \(p=2\), it becomes the corresponding theorem of Chaubey and Shirazi (Commun Stat Theory Methods 44:885–899, 2015).     

Optimal regular graph designs

A typical problem in optimal design theory is finding an experimental design that is optimal with respect to some criteria in a class of designs. The most popular criteria include the A- and D-criteria. Regular graph designs occur in many optimality results, and if the number of blocks is large enough, an A-optimal (or D-optimal) design is among them (if any exist). To explore the landscape of designs with a large number of blocks, we introduce extensions of regular graph designs. These are constructed by adding the blocks of a balanced incomplete block design repeatedly to the original design. We present the results of an exact computer search for the best regular graph designs and the best extended regular graph designs with up to 20 treatments v, block size \(k \le 10\) and replication r \(\le 10\) and \(r(k-1)-(v-1)\lfloor r(k-1)/(v-1)\rfloor \le 9\).     

Transformation approaches of linear random-effects models

Assume that a linear random-effects model \(\mathbf{y}= \mathbf{X}\varvec{\beta }+ \varvec{\varepsilon }= \mathbf{X}(\mathbf{A}\varvec{\alpha }+ \varvec{\gamma }) + \varvec{\varepsilon }\) is transformed as \(\mathbf{T}\mathbf{y}= \mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}\varvec{\beta }+ \mathbf{T}\varvec{\varepsilon }= \mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}(\mathbf{A}\varvec{\alpha }+ \varvec{\gamma }) + \mathbf{T}\varvec{\varepsilon }\) by pre-multiplying a given matrix \(\mathbf{T}\) of arbitrary rank. These two models are not necessarily equivalent unless \(\mathbf{T}\) is of full column rank, and we have to work with this derived model in many situations. Because predictors/estimators of the parameter spaces under the two models are not necessarily the same, it is primary work to compare predictors/estimators in the two models and to establish possible links between the inference results obtained from two models. This paper presents a general algebraic approach to the problem of comparing best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) of parameter spaces in an original linear random-effects model and its transformations, and provides a group of fundamental and comprehensive results on mathematical and statistical properties of the BLUPs. In particular, we construct many equalities for the BLUPs under an original linear random-effects model and its transformations, and obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the equalities to hold.     

Computing the log concave NPMLE for interval censored data

In analyzing interval censored data, a non-parametric estimator is often desired due to difficulties in assessing model fits. Because of this, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is often the default estimator. However, the estimates for values of interest of the survival function, such as the quantiles, have very large standard errors due to the jagged form of the estimator. By forcing the estimator to be constrained to the class of log concave functions, the estimator is ensured to have a smooth survival estimate which has much better operating characteristics than the unconstrained NPMLE, without needing to specify a parametric family or smoothing parameter. In this paper, we first prove that the likelihood can be maximized under a finite set of parameters under mild conditions, although the log likelihood function is not strictly concave. We then present an efficient algorithm for computing a local maximum of the likelihood function. Using our fast new algorithm, we present evidence from simulated current status data suggesting that the rate of convergence of the log-concave estimator is faster (between \(n^{2/5}\) and \(n^{1/2}\)) than the unconstrained NPMLE (between \(n^{1/3}\) and \(n^{1/2}\)).     

Stochastically optimal bootstrap sample size for shrinkage-type statistics

In nonregular problems where the conventional \(n\) out of \(n\) bootstrap is inconsistent, the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap provides a useful remedy to restore consistency. Conventionally, optimal choice of the bootstrap sample size \(m\) is taken to be the minimiser of a frequentist error measure, estimation of which has posed a major difficulty hindering practical application of the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap method. Relatively little attention has been paid to a stronger, stochastic, version of the optimal bootstrap sample size, defined as the minimiser of an error measure calculated directly from the observed sample. Motivated by this stronger notion of optimality, we develop procedures for calculating the stochastically optimal value of \(m\). Our procedures are shown to work under special forms of Edgeworth-type expansions which are typically satisfied by statistics of the shrinkage type. Theoretical and empirical properties of our methods are illustrated with three examples, namely the James–Stein estimator, the ridge regression estimator and the post-model-selection regression estimator.     

Multiplier bootstrap methods for conditional distributions

The multiplier bootstrap is a fast and easy-to-implement alternative to the standard bootstrap; it has been used successfully in many statistical contexts. In this paper, resampling methods based on multipliers are proposed in a general framework where one investigates the stochastic behavior of a random vector \(\mathbf {Y}\in \mathbb {R}^d\) conditional on a covariate \(X \in \mathbb {R}\). Specifically, two versions of the multiplier bootstrap adapted to empirical conditional distributions are introduced as alternatives to the conditional bootstrap and their asymptotic validity is formally established. As the method walks hand-in-hand with the functional delta method, theory around the estimation of statistical functionals is developed accordingly; this includes the interval estimation of conditional mean and variance, conditional correlation coefficient, Kendall’s dependence measure and copula. Composite inference about univariate and joint conditional distributions is also considered. The sample behavior of the new bootstrap schemes and related estimation methods are investigated via simulations and an illustration on real data is provided.     

Semi-parametric bivariate polychotomous ordinal regression

A pair of polychotomous random variables \((Y_1,Y_2)^\top =:{\varvec{Y}}\), where each \(Y_j\) has a totally ordered support, is studied within a penalized generalized linear model framework. We deal with a triangular generating process for \({\varvec{Y}}\), a structure that has been employed in the literature to control for the presence of residual confounding. Differently from previous works, however, the proposed model allows for a semi-parametric estimation of the covariate-response relationships. In this way, the risk of model mis-specification stemming from the imposition of fixed-order polynomial functional forms is also reduced. The proposed estimation methods and related inferential results are finally applied to study the effect of education on alcohol consumption among young adults in the UK.     

A new universal resample-stable bootstrap-based stopping criterion for PLS component construction

We develop a new robust stopping criterion for partial least squares regression (PLSR) component construction, characterized by a high level of stability. This new criterion is universal since it is suitable both for PLSR and extensions to generalized linear regression (PLSGLR). The criterion is based on a non-parametric bootstrap technique and must be computed algorithmically. It allows the testing of each successive component at a preset significance level \(\alpha \). In order to assess its performance and robustness with respect to various noise levels, we perform dataset simulations in which there is a preset and known number of components. These simulations are carried out for datasets characterized both by \(n>p\), with n the number of subjects and p the number of covariates, as well as for \(n<p\). We then use t-tests to compare the predictive performance of our approach with other common criteria. The stability property is in particular tested through re-sampling processes on a real allelotyping dataset. An important additional conclusion is that this new criterion gives globally better predictive performances than existing ones in both the PLSR and PLSGLR (logistic and poisson) frameworks.     

Some lower bounds of centered $$L_2$$-discrepancy of $$2^{s-k}$$2s-k designs and their complementary designs

The indicator function is an effective tool in studying factorial designs. This paper presents some lower bounds of centered \(L_2\)-discrepancy through indicator function. Some new lower bounds of centered \(L_2\)-discrepancy for \(2^{s-k}\) designs and their complementary designs are given. Numerical results show that our lower bounds are tight and better than the existing results.