Selection of tuning parameters in bridge regression models via Bayesian information criterion

We consider bridge regression models, which can produce a sparse or non-sparse model by controlling a tuning parameter in the penalty term. A crucial part of a model building strategy is the selection of the values for adjusted parameters, such as regularization and tuning parameters. Indeed, this can be viewed as a problem in selecting and evaluating the model. We propose a Bayesian selection criterion for evaluating bridge regression models. This criterion enables us to objectively select the values of the adjusted parameters. We investigate the effectiveness of our proposed modeling strategy with some numerical examples.     

Consistent Bayesian information criterion based on a mixture prior for possibly high-dimensional multivariate linear regression models

In the problem of selecting variables in a multivariate linear regression model, we derive new Bayesian information criteria based on a prior mixing a smooth distribution and a delta distribution. Each of them can be interpreted as a fusion of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Inheriting their asymptotic properties, our information criteria are consistent in variable selection in both the large-sample and the high-dimensional asymptotic frameworks. In numerical simulations, variable selection methods based on our information criteria choose the true set of variables with high probability in most cases.     

Robust image segmentation via Bayesian type criterion

Image segmentation plays an important role in image processing before image recognition or compression. Many segmentation solutions follow the information theoretic criteria and often have excellent results; however, they are not robust to reduce the noise effect in contaminated image data. To guarantee the optimal segmentation with possible noise, a robust Bayesian information criterion is proposed to segment a grayscale image and it is less sensitive to noise. The asymptotic properties are also studied. Monte Carlo numerical experiments along with a brain magnetic resonance image are conducted to evaluate the performance of the new method.     

A note on the unification of the Akaike information criterion

To measure the distance between a robust function evaluated under the true regression model and under a fitted model, we propose generalized Kullback–Leibler information. Using this generalization we have developed three robust model selection criteria, AICR*, AICCR* and AICCR, that allow the selection of candidate models that not only fit the majority of the data but also take into account non-normally distributed errors. The AICR* and AICCR criteria can unify most existing Akaike information criteria; three examples of such unification are given. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the relative performance of each criterion.     

A Bayesian criterion for selecting super saturated screening designs

Super-saturated designs in which the number of factors under investigation exceeds the number of experimental runs have been suggested for screening experiments initiated to identify important factors for future study. Most of the designs suggested in the literature are based on natural but ad hoc criteria. The “average s²” criteria introduced by Booth and Cox (Technometrics 4 (1962) 489) is a popular choice. Here, a decision theoretic approach is pursued leading to an optimality criterion based on misclassification probabilities in a Bayesian model. In certain cases, designs optimal under the average s² criterion are also optimal for the new criterion. Necessary conditions for this to occur are presented. In addition, the new criterion often provides a strict preference between designs tied under the average s² criterion, which is advantageous in numerical search as it reduces the number of local minima.     

Comparison of Akaike information criterion and consistent Akaike information criterion for model selection and statistical inference from capture-recapture studies

SUMMARY We compare properties of parameter estimators under Akaike information criterion (AIC) and 'consistent' AIC (CAIC) model selection in a nested sequence of open population capture-recapture models. These models consist of product multinomials, where the cell probabilities are parameterized in terms of survival ( ) and capture ( p ) i i probabilities for each time interval i . The sequence of models is derived from 'treatment' effects that might be (1) absent, model H ; (2) only acute, model H ; or (3) acute and 0 2 p chronic, lasting several time intervals, model H . Using a 35 factorial design, 1000 3 repetitions were simulated for each of 243 cases. The true number of parameters ranged from 7 to 42, and the sample size ranged from approximately 470 to 55 000 per case. We focus on the quality of the inference about the model parameters and model structure that results from the two selection criteria. We use achieved confidence interval coverage as an integrating metric to judge what constitutes a 'properly parsimonious' model, and contrast the performance of these two model selection criteria for a wide range of models, sample sizes, parameter values and study interval lengths. AIC selection resulted in models in which the parameters were estimated with relatively little bias. However, these models exhibited asymptotic sampling variances that were somewhat too small, and achieved confidence interval coverage that was somewhat below the nominal level. In contrast, CAIC-selected models were too simple, the parameter estimators were often substantially biased, the asymptotic sampling variances were substantially too small and the achieved coverage was often substantially below the nominal level. An example case illustrates a pattern: with 20 capture occasions, 300 previously unmarked animals are released at each occasion, and the survival and capture probabilities in the control group on each occasion were 0.9 and 0.8 respectively using model H . There was a strong acute treatment effect 3 on the first survival ( ) and first capture probability ( p ), and smaller, chronic effects 1 2 on the second and third survival probabilities ( and ) as well as on the second capture 2 3 probability ( p ); the sample size for each repetition was approximately 55 000. CAIC 3 selection led to a model with exactly these effects in only nine of the 1000 repetitions, compared with 467 times under AIC selection. Under CAIC selection, even the two acute effects were detected only 555 times, compared with 998 for AIC selection. AIC selection exhibited a balance between underfitted and overfitted models (270 versus 263), while CAIC tended strongly to select underfitted models. CAIC-selected models were overly parsimonious and poor as a basis for statistical inferences about important model parameters or structure. We recommend the use of the AIC and not the CAIC for analysis and inference from capture-recapture data sets.     

A self-reliant projected information criterion for the number of factors

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new projected PCA to determine the number of factors. We project variables of interest into the space spanned by cross sectional averages of variables. And then we construct the eigenvalue tests and the information criteria to estimate the number of factors. We derive the large sample consistency and conduct finite sample simulations to demonstrate the better performances of our estimators. In order to show the edge of our estimators in real data analysis, we revisit a large house price data set for which the number of factors is hard to select.     

Generalization of the order-restricted information criterion for multivariate normal linear models

The generalized order-restricted information criterion (goric) is a model selection criterion which can, up to now, solely be applied to the analysis of variance models and, so far, only evaluate restrictions of the form Rθ≤0$R\theta \le 0$, where θ$\theta$ is a vector of k group means and R   a _cm×k$c_m\times k$ matrix. In this paper, we generalize the goric in two ways: (i) such that it can be applied to t  -variate normal linear models and (ii) such that it can evaluate a more general form of order restrictions: Rθ≤r$R\theta \le r$, where θ$\theta$ is a vector of length tk, r a vector of length c_m, and R   a _cm×tk$c_m\times \mathit{tk}$ matrix of full rank (when r≠0$r\ne 0$). At the end, we illustrate that the goric is easy to implement in a multivariate regression model.     

Evaluating modified generalized information criterion in presence of multicollinearity

When there are many explanatory variables in the regression model, there is a chance that some of these are intercorrelated. This is where the problem of multicollinearity creeps in due to which precision and accuracy of the coefficients is marred, and the quest to find the best model becomes tedious. To tackle such a situation, Model selection criteria are applied for selecting the best model that fits the data. Current study focuses on the evaluation of the four unmodified and four modified versions of generalized information criteria—Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz's Bayes Information Criteria, Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion, and Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small samples. A simulation study using SAS software was carried out in order to compare the unmodified and modified versions of the generalized information criteria and to discover the best version amongst the four modified model selection criteria, for identifying the best model, when the collinearity assumption is violated. For the proposed simulation, two samples of size 50 and 100, for three explanatory variables X₁, X₂, and X₃, are drawn from Normal distribution. Two situations of collinearity violations between X₁ and X₂ are looked into, first when ρ = 0.6 and second when ρ = 0.8. The outcomes of the simulations are displayed in the tables along with visual representations. The results revealed that modified versions of the generalized information criteria are more sensitive in identifying models marred with high multicollinearity as compared to the unmodified generalized information criteria.     

Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models

We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a bias-corrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on the choices involved in setting up these measures, and we compare them in three simple examples, one theoretical and two applied. The contribution of this paper is to put all these information criteria into a Bayesian predictive context and to better understand, through small examples, how these methods can apply in practice.     

Focused information criterion for locally misspecified vector autoregressive models

This paper investigates the focused information criterion and plug-in average for vector autoregressive models with local-to-zero misspecification. These methods have the advantage of focusing on a quantity of interest rather than aiming at overall model fit. Any (su?ciently regular) function of the parameters can be used as a quantity of interest. We determine the asymptotic properties and elaborate on the role of the locally misspecified parameters. In particular, we show that the inability to consistently estimate locally misspecified parameters translates into suboptimal selection and averaging. We apply this framework to impulse response analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation study supports our claims.     

Nonparametric estimating equations based on a penalized information criterion

It has recently been observed that, given the mean‐variance relation, one can improve on the accuracy of the quasi‐likelihood estimator by the adaptive estimator based on the estimation of the higher moments. The estimation of such moments is usually unstable, however, and consequently only for large samples does the improvement become evident. The author proposes a nonparametric estimating equation that does not depend on the estimation of such moments, but instead on the penalized minimization of asymptotic variance. His method provides a strong improvement over the quasi‐likelihood estimator and the adaptive estimators, for a wide range of sample sizes.     

Bayesian Poisson models for the graphical combination of dependent expert information

A supra-Bayesian (SB) wants to combine the information from a group of k experts to produce her distribution of a probability θ. Each expert gives his counts of what he thinks are the numbers of successes and failures in a sequence of independent trials, each with probability θ of success. These counts, used as a surrogate for each expert's own individual probability assessment (together with his associated level of confidence in his estimate), allow the SB to build various plausible conjugate models. Such models reflect her beliefs about the reliability of different experts and take account of different possible patterns of overlap of information between them. Corresponding combination rules are then obtained and compared with other more established rules and their properties examined.     

Bayesian prediction with an asymmetric criterion in a nonparametric model of insurance risk

A median-unbiased estimator of the characteristic exponent of a symmetric stable distribution is constructed.     

Bayesian predictive densities based on latent information priors

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data is assumed to belong to a parametric submodel of a multinomial model. Future observables and data are possibly dependent. The discrepancy of a predictive density to the true conditional density of future observables given observed data is evaluated by the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It is proved that limits of Bayesian predictive densities form an essentially complete class. Latent information priors are defined as priors maximizing the conditional mutual information between the parameter and the future observables given the observed data. Minimax predictive densities are constructed as limits of Bayesian predictive densities based on prior sequences converging to the latent information priors.     

An Akaike information criterion for model selection in the presence of incomplete data

We derive and investigate a variant of AIC, the Akaike information criterion, for model selection in settings where the observed data is incomplete. Our variant is based on the motivation provided for the PDIO (‘predictive divergence for incomplete observation models’) criterion of Shimodaira (1994, in: Selecting Models from Data: Artificial Intelligence and Statistics IV, Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 89, Springer, New York, pp. 21–29). However, our variant differs from PDIO in its ‘goodness-of-fit’ term. Unlike AIC and PDIO, which require the computation of the observed-data empirical log-likelihood, our criterion can be evaluated using only complete-data tools, readily available through the EM algorithm and the SEM (‘supplemented’ EM) algorithm of Meng and Rubin (Journal of the American Statistical Association 86 (1991) 899–909). We compare the performance of our AIC variant to that of both AIC and PDIO in simulations where the data being modeled contains missing values. The results indicate that our criterion is less prone to overfitting than AIC and less prone to underfitting than PDIO.     

Schwarz information criterion based tests for a change-point in regression models

Standard Schwarz information criterion for testing a change-point in regression models is considered and two new test procedures are evolved. The case of small sample size is investigated. Numerical approximations to the power against various alternatives are given and compared with powers of tests based on r-ahead recursive residuals and of the CUSUM of squares test. Application of these procedures to some real data is also provided.     

Laplace approximations and Bayesian information criteria in possibly misspecified models

We provide general conditions to ensure the valid Laplace approximations to the marginal likelihoods under model misspecification, and derive the Bayesian information criteria including all terms of order O_p(1). Under conditions in theorem 1 of Lv and Liu [J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 76, (2014), 141–167] and a continuity condition for prior densities, asymptotic expansions with error terms of order o_p(1) are derived for the log-marginal likelihoods of possibly misspecified generalized linear models. We present some numerical examples to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed information criteria in misspecified models.     

Detection of the numbers of outliers present in a data set using an information theoretic criterion

We use an information theoretic criterion proposed by Zhao, Krishnaiah and Bai (1986) to detect the number of outliers in a data set. We consider univariable mean-slippage and dispersion-slippage outlier structure of the observations. Multivariate generalizations and the consistency of the estimates are also considered. Numerical examples are presented in tables.