中国人口性别偏好的变迁研究（2010-2021）

本文利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS2010-2021）,描述分析了中国人口性别偏好随年龄、时期和世代的变化趋势。结果显示,人们的儿子偏好与年龄呈U型趋势。随着时间的推移,中国民众的儿女无所谓偏好有所下降,儿子偏好基本持平,女儿偏好显著提升。结合我国近十年来生育政策的调整,女儿偏好的时期变化趋势集中体现了政策释放效应。生育政策调整对弱化民众的性别偏好,促进出生性别比向正常回归具有积极意义。不同代际的性别偏好呈现从“60后”“70后”的儿女双全偏好向“70后”末期“80后”的儿女无所谓偏好的过渡,进而发展到“95后”的儿女都不要。不过,性别偏好的代际效应并非线性变化,具有一定的波动与反复。我国民众的性别偏好与中国的现代化进程、生育政策调整以及市场经济转型等重要历史事件有较大的关联。     

相对效用、男孩偏好与生育性别选择

本文提出了“男女孩相对效用”的概念，并构建了男女孩相对效用的模型，对中国出生性别比偏高现象进行了分析和解释，认为“男女孩相对效用”是家庭进行生育性别选择的依据。     

数字经济背景下的就业性别平等——现状、挑战与应对方略

进入21世纪以来,中国妇女发展水平全方位提升,经济活动参与权达到历史新高度。但不容忽视的是,我国职业性别隔离程度也不断加剧,阻碍女性晋升的“玻璃天花板”现象比比皆是,性别薪酬差距持续拉大,传统性别角色观依然在许多领域存在着潜移默化的影响。当下中国就业领域的性别平等依然任重道远,而数字化进程并未使上述问题得以自行缓解。数字经济发展对就业性别平等具有“双刃剑”作用,在数字化直接创造出大量适合女性就业创业岗位的同时,数字经济部门本身的职业性别隔离现象却日益严峻,两性之间的数字技能鸿沟不断深化,技术替代人力凸显了女性就业脆弱性,组织结构扁平化加固了“玻璃天花板”,而且性别歧视甚至内隐于数字技术之中,成为一种自带歧视意味的数字秩序。总体而言,伴随着数字经济的发展,无论是行业间的横向性别隔离程度,还是行业内的纵向性别隔离程度,都呈现加剧趋势。在发展过程中涌现的新问题,仍须依靠“发展”本身来解决。从长远来看,在促进性别平等和向女性赋权方面,数字变革拥有无限潜能。未来仍须加快构建适应新时代要求的平等保护政策体系,完善促进就业性别平等的法律体系,营造性别平等的社会文化生态,大力发展性别平等化的数字教育,...     

人口流动中的移民现象

由于社会经济政策拓宽了人们选择生存空间的自由度,流动人口中出现了一部分出身农民的“移民”。我们之所以将具有“两栖”特点的农民流动人口,称其为“移民”,是因为这个群体,在流入地的居住上,由“暂住”向“常住”方向发展。 据河北省10个省辖市1994年流动人口抽样调查结果显示,在现住地连续居住三个月以上或不满三个月但离开户口所在地三个月及以上的流动人口,占调查区有常住户口     

试论人口与计划生育工作“两个转变”的标志性特征与实施工程

人口与计划生育工作“两个转变”的提出 ,标志我国人口与计划生育工作实现了第一次历史性飞跃 ,并开始了新的长征。工作重点将转向稳定低生育水平 ,“两个转变”恰恰服务于稳定低生育水平。本文就“两个转变”提出八条标准 ,初步描绘了“两个转变”的标志性特征 ,并通过八项工程具体推进“两个转变”的实施 ,使“两个转变”的运作更加系统和规范。同时也指出 ,“两个转变”是人口与计划生育工作由低级向高级发展的运动过程 ,无论是标准还是支持工程都是发展变化的 ,需要不断完善和提高。     

计生宣教“四个转变”创新开始

2003年以来，广西桂林市在开展人口与计划生育宣传教育工作中不断探索，在实现计划生育“两大转变”过程中，我们始终坚持宣教工作的不断改革创新。面对新的形式，如何实现人口与计生宣教工作的新突破？桂林市在不断深化人口与计生宣教工作的同时，围绕如何建立多形式全方位宣传教育服务体系的目标，在没有现成经验可循的情况下，大胆探索，本着“实际、实用、实效”的原则，在总体思路上实现了“四个转变”：即由“部门”型向“社会”型转变，由“声势”型向“效益”型转变，由“说教”型向“服务”型转变，由“松散”型向“规范”型转变；在工作方法上采取“六个进入”：即计划生育宣传教育进入农村、进入机关、进入学校、进入家庭、进入旅游、进入企业；在具体措施上做到“五个结合”：即计划生育宣传教育与经常性工作相结合，     

清远市清城区赤岗村、清新县大树墩村出生性别比情况的调查

清远市部分农村出生性别比偏高的主要原因是重男轻女的传统观念在许多地方依然有深厚的根基。计划生育政策堵塞了人们通过多育得男的途径 ,一些村民利用胎儿性别选择等手段人为地提高了出生性别比。但具体的情况往往在经济发达地区与山区有所不同。全面推广落实“关爱女孩行动”对出生性别比升高有明显的抑制作用。     

中国城镇地区职业性别隔离水平的趋势分析

在劳动力市场中职业性别隔离水平是衡量男女平等的重要指标之一。本文基于2000年和2010年全国人口普查数据,分别从总体隔离、水平隔离与垂直隔离、性别类型职业等几个方面对中国劳动力市场上的职业性别隔离水平的发展趋势和现状进行估计和分析,并进一步比较不同行业和地区职业性别隔离水平的差异。研究发现2000年以来中国城镇地区的职业性别隔离总体水平下降趋势明显。职业间的性别分布变化显著,表现为一方面女性不断向管理层、技术层的职业领域扩张。虽然男性仍在"单位负责人"和"专业技术人员"等具有高权威和高声望的职业中具有明显优势,但是女性在这些职业中的从业比例大幅上升。后者表明提高女性受教育程度仍是降低职业性别隔离水平的重要途径;另一方面从农副业人员中解放出的女性主要向商业服务业人员转移,而男性则主要向产业工人转移。这一变化可能是由性别的自然禀赋差异所导致的社会分工不同,而并非受劳动力市场歧视的影响。职业内的性别隔离程度普遍下降,虽然"男性职业"近1/3,"女性职业"几乎不存在,但是女性在各个职业种类中的分布比例基本上均有不同程度的提高。我国各个省份的职业性别隔离水平差异较大,中部地区最低,东部地区整体偏高,而西部地区的职业隔离水平则呈现出两极分化。     

创新模式推动幸福工程又好又快发展

福建省东山县计生协会在坚持幸福工程“小额资助、直接到人、滚动运作、劳动脱贫”的救助模式的同时，从本地产业结构调整和经济发展的需要出发，积极探索新的救助模式来解决计生贫困母亲的脱贫和还款两大难题，由单一型向多样型发展，由分散型向规模型发展，探索和创新了“公司（基地）＋计生贫困母亲”、“产业基地＋计生贫困母亲”、“企业＋计生贫困母亲”、“致富能人＋计生贫困母亲”等救助模式。     

出生性别比偏高的特征与原因分析——对湖北省麻城、广水、安陆三市的调查

湖北省麻城、广水、安陆三市总出生性别比升高呈现出的特征:一孩出生性别比基本正常或略微高些,但二孩及以上出生性别比超高,而二孩出生性别比超高是总出生性别比升高的主要原因;政策内二孩生育存在严重男孩性别选择行为;贫困农民家庭是选择性男孩生育的主要群体;性别选择最容易在农村流出育龄人群中实现。农村经济社会文化环境、农民家庭多重生育需求、男孩偏好、生育性别选择,这些环环相扣的因果关系变量,以及胎儿性别鉴定与人工终止妊娠易获得性和现行生育政策的“挤压”效应等,是造成调查地出生性别比异常的综合因素。     

Indirect evidence of the contribution of prenatal sex selection practices to the high sex ratio at birth in Vietnam

This paper reports indirect evidence that prenatal sex selection is a contributor to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam. The paper uses birth data from the Population Change Survey 2006 to assess the associations between sex ratio at birth and variables that predict increased opportunities to practise prenatal sex selection, including maternal knowledge of foetal sex before birth, the use of ultrasound for foetal sex determination, the gestation week when foetal sex was disclosed, and access to abortion services. The high sex ratio of most recent births was significantly associated with the use of ultrasound to determine the foetal sex in gestation weeks 12–22 and with access to family planning services that provide abortion. Prenatal sex selection in health facilities are likely to contribute to the recent increase in sex ratio at birth in Vietnam.     

出生人口性别比周期性波动研究——兼论中国出生人口性别比的变化趋势

在观察数据基础上,描述出生人口性别比周期性波动现象,并对其内在机理做出解释。研究发现,出生人口性别比的周期性波动是一个普遍规律,其波动周期与生育间隔相关。正常情况下,周期成分对出生人口性别比的变化影响较小并且稳定。中国出生人口性别比的周期成分明显大于其他国家,这与中国强烈的性别偏好有关。周期成分不是影响中国出生人口性别比的主要因素,性别选择行为是出生人口性别比失衡的主要原因。在实际工作中应该尊重出生人口性别比周期性波动的客观规律,关注出生人口性别比的中长期变化趋势。中国出生人口性别比的"拐点"已经出现,在继续加强综合治理工作的条件下,出生人口性别比将进入下降过程。     

Do Daughters Really Cause Divorce? Stress,Pregnancy, and Family Composition

Provocative studies have reported that in the United States, marriages producing firstborn daughters are more likely to divorce than those producing firstborn sons. The findings have been interpreted as contemporary evidence of fathers’ son preference. Our study explores the potential role of another set of dynamics that may drive these patterns: namely, selection into live birth. Epidemiological evidence indicates that the characteristic female survival advantage may begin before birth. If stress accompanying unstable marriages has biological effects on fecundity, a female survival advantage could generate an association between stability and the sex composition of offspring. Combining regression and simulation techniques to analyze real-world data, we ask, How much of the observed association between sex of the firstborn child and risk of divorce could plausibly be accounted for by the joint effects of female survival advantage and reduced fecundity associated with unstable marriage? Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we find that relationship conflict predicts the sex of children born after conflict was measured; conflict also predicts subsequent divorce. Conservative specification of parameters linking pregnancy characteristics, selection into live birth, and divorce are sufficient to generate a selection-driven association between offspring sex and divorce, which is consequential in magnitude. Our findings illustrate the value of demographic accounting of processes which occur before birth—a period when many outcomes of central interest in the population sciences begin to take shape.     

The Decline of Son Preference in South Korea: The Roles of Development and Public Policy

For years, sex ratios at birth kept rising in South Korea despite rapid development. We show that this was not an anomaly: underlying son preference fell with development, but the effect of son preference on sex ratios at birth rose until the mid‐1990s as a result of improved sex‐selection technology. Now South Korea leads Asia with a declining sex ratio at birth. We explore how son preference was affected by development and by public policy. Decomposition analysis indicates that development reduced son preference primarily through triggering normative changes across society—rather than just in individuals whose socioeconomic circumstances had changed. The cultural underpinnings of son preference in preindustrial Korea were unraveled by industrialization and urbanization even as public policies sought to uphold the patriarchal family system. Our results suggest that child sex ratios in China and India may decline before those countries reach South Korean levels of development, since the governments of both countries vigorously promote normative change to reduce son preference.     

女性地位低的层级推演--对出生性别比偏高背后隐象的探析

目前学术界对出生性别比偏高原因的争论主要集中在出生婴儿性别次序先后与下一孩次性别关系以及计划生育政策和女婴存在漏报、瞒报的影响等三个方面,本文在对三大传统观点提出质疑的基础上,先从生物学、计划生育政策、医学技术三个方面,而后从性别偏好,最后从女性地位低这三级递进的层次,推演和探析出生性别比偏高的原因,从而明晰出生性别比偏高的终极原因在于女性地位低这一事实。并努力从女性地位、男性偏好以及出生性别比三者关系上构造出一个新的分析框架。     

广东出生人口性别比偏高的现状、原因与对策

本文对广东出生人口性别比偏高的现状与特点进行分析的基础上,就其危害与成因以及应采取的相应对策进行了探讨。作者指出:传宗接代问题、农村养老问题、性别选择、溺弃女婴、瞒报和基层计生工作不到位等是导致出生人口性别比偏高的最主要因素,要促进性别比平衡必须采取有效措施,实行综合治理。     

子女孩次性别结构与女性再生育——基于孩次性别递进生育率的分析

现有子女的孩次性别结构是影响女性再生育的重要因素。使用中国2000年人口普查数据和时期孩次性别递进生育指标对女性生育水平进行了测算。结果显示,女性普遍生育但终身只生育一个孩子的比例很大,基于孩次性别结构的生育行为体现了男孩偏好;城市和镇在生育第一孩时就存在性别选择;第一个孩子是女孩的女性生育二孩的可能性较大,且二孩是男孩的比例显著大于是女孩的比例;第一个孩子是男孩的城市和镇的女性大部分不再生育,而农村女性有很大比例会生育二孩,但几乎不存在性别选择。采用某地区2019年的数据进行补充验证,同样发现:只有一个女孩的女性相比较只有一个男孩的女性生育者生第二孩的可能性要高很多,以上研究发现对当前二孩生育行为具有一定的启示意义。     

What demographers can learn from fruit fly actuarial models and biology

Historically demographers have viewed the results of actuarial studies of nonhuman species, particularly those on invertebrates such as fruit flies, as largely irrelevant to investigations on human populations. In this paper I present life table data from large scale studies on the Mediterranean fruit fly, and show that they provide important insights into fundamental aspects of mortality relevant to human populations: the trajectory of mortality at older ages, sex mortality differentials, the concept of maximal life span, and demographic heterogeneity and selection. An overriding theme of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography, and molecular medicine.     

Child Underreporting,Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China

Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world’s highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a “1.5-child” policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China’s sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.