An economic analysis of nanofood labeling

The paper examines the economic effects of labeling food nanotechnology products using an analytical framework of heterogeneous consumers and imperfectly competitive suppliers. Labeling results in increased costs for nanofood producers (the cost effect of the labeling policy), reduced consumer uncertainty regarding the nature of the food product (certainty effect), and can affect consumer attitudes towards nanofoods by being perceived as a warning signal (stigma effect). In this context, nanofood labeling can change the perceived quality differences between nanofoods and their conventional and organic counterparts, with such changes being more salient when the stigma effect is large, when consumers have low awareness of food nanotechnology in the absence of labeling, and/or when competition among nanofood suppliers is more intense. Despite its empirical relevance, the impact of a labeling policy on consumer preferences (and the economic ramifications of such impact) has largely been ignored by the theoretical literature on the economics of labels. Our analysis shows that it matters. Specifically, our study shows that the market and welfare effects of labeling are case-specific and dependent on consumer awareness of, and attitudes towards food nanotechnology before and after the introduction of the policy as well as the relative magnitude of the cost, certainty and stigma effects of nanofood labeling. Our analytical findings also suggest that the effects of nanofood labels on consumer welfare are asymmetric with certain groups of consumers benefiting even when labeling has a stigma effect on nanofoods.     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

Energy consumption and hidden economy in Macedonia: Causes and responses

We propose a compact analytical model for estimation of the size of hidden economy (H), using two input variables: total electricity consumption in the country and the gross domestic product.An analytical expression has been obtained for H, as explicit function of n (year), and two parameters: H(0) (the size of hidden economy in the base year (n = 0)), and the parameters μ (the elasticity for electricity consumption with respect to the gross domestic product) and r (relative efficiency of the hidden economy compared to the regular economy).We show that the size of hidden economy can be effectively estimated based on the variations of energy consumption. Using the results for the case of Macedonia we identify several oscillations attributed to dramatic events and suggest policy approach responding to external shocks generating hidden economy rather that to generally adopted factors (e.g. taxation).     

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.     

The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing

The Irish economy has recently endured a period of turbulence as a result of the collapse of the domestic property market bubble and the onset of the global financial crisis. There are two critical vulnerabilities in the Irish economy at present. The first is the potential for sluggish economic growth due to a slowdown in external demand, which impacts on the government's ability to meet budgetary targets. The second concern relates to the financial stability of the banking system given the escalating mortgage crisis. Our results show that Irish economic growth is highly sensitive to the performance of its trading partners and any international slowdown will hinder Ireland's growth prospects. The model used suggests that the appropriate policy response is to pursue further gains in competitiveness. We estimate the impact of an external slowdown on mortgage delinquency using a new dataset on the loan books of the commercial banking sector. The results suggest that a negative one standard deviation shock to US GDP growth leads to an increase of 1600 in the number of mortgages in arrears for at least 90 days. Arrears are driven by unemployment and negative equity in the model. We discuss policies to contain the mortgage crisis by improving these intermediate target variables.     

End of double taxation: Is the policy better when announced?

This paper examines the effectiveness of the “end of double taxation” (on dividends) policy in stabilizing an economy. Both announced and unannounced policies are considered. A reduction in double taxation stimulates investment and improves welfare, but its impact on output is moderate and it has a negative effect on work hours. A temporary cut creates an investment boom but also generates an investment slump when the tax cut expires. Announcements of future tax cuts are found to have important effect on output dynamics. Agents respond to the tax policy even before it is implemented. If the tax cut is announced to be temporary, its impact on output is greatly reduced. Our study suggests that a temporary dividend tax cut is most effective in stabilizing a recession stricken economy when the policy change comes as “news” to the economy.     

Policy simulations with a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy

In this paper, the results of various dynamic policy simulations are analyzed within the context of a macroeconometric model of the Indian economy. The model contains 35 equations and offers a consistent framework for policy analysis. It is considerably expanded on the side of the fiscal sector and usefully incorporates the interdependence between monetary and fiscal sectors and gives due attention to supply side considerations. Magnitudes of effects of sustained policy changes are analyzed for the period 1964–1965 to 1974–1975. Impact multipliers and elasticities are also analyzed. Government expenditures variables and deficit financing are shown to have substantial impact on the system whereas changes in tax-rates, discount-rates, and liquidity ratios for commercial banks are shown to have only a marginal impact. The model is used for exploring the growth potential of the economy in a forecast period of five years under alternative assumptions regarding policy options.     

Prospects for the Soviet economy to the year 2000

This article reviews the current state of the Soviet economy, and, after placing it within the broader context of the world economy, provides a number of alternative projections of its future course up to the year 2000. For this purpose an updated structural matrix of the Soviet economy was incorporated into a global structure of the world economy built for the United Nations and described in Leontief, Carter and Petri (The Future of the World Economy. New York: Oxford University Press, 1977). Several important modifications in the structural formulation of the model were carried out in order to account for the projected increased production and export of Soviet natural gas to the end of the century and to incorporate current estimates of Soviet agricultural and military-goods production.     

Does country-risk influence electricity production worldwide?

This paper investigates the relationship between country-risks (or conflicts) within countries and electricity production. The determinants of electricity production have been neglected in the literature that favours the relationship between energy consumption, growth and development, and despite of the major challenges on electricity supply systems. We empirically establish that weighted conflict index, as well as sub-items as anti-government demonstrations, government crises and riots negatively influence electricity production per capita, after controlling for income per capita. Country conflicts affect electricity production mostly in the long-run. Our results imply that conflicts may affect electricity production substantially and consequently the economy as a whole. Policy should emphasize the institutional framework to avoid conflicts within countries in order to secure electricity production.     

Shadow economy,corruption and public debt in Spain

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the shadow economy and corruption as determinants of public debt in the Spanish Autonomous Communities. In addition, we construct a Corruption Perception Index for those regions. Our data constitute panel data for the period 2000–2012. The results show that the volume of the shadow economy has a significant and positive impact on regional public debt. Corruption also shows a direct and significant relationship with public debt in the Autonomous Communities, although its impact is lower than that of the shadow economy. We extract some implications for the public authorities.     

Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications

An arms race exists when a country’s propensity to acquire arms is influenced by a potential adversary’s military spending. When evaluating the impact of economic policies towards the developing world, e.g., foreign assistance programs, it is important to identify if an arms race exist between dyads of recipient nations. The reason is that if the impact of the policy is favorable to the country deemed to be “causing” an arms race, then the policy will not only increase the amount of weapons of the recipient country, but of the other as well. This will increase the probability of war if it is positively related to the stock of weapons of these adversaries.Consequently, this paper investigates the direction of prima facie casual relationship between the military expenditures of potential adversaries in the developing world by using parametric causality tests. We conclude that some of these country’s expenditures seem to reflect an arms race while other proposed dyads seem not to be adversaries, i.e., their expenditures are independent and therefore seem to be governed by other than an external threat.     

Reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of different instruments

The possibility that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use might lead to global warming has become a leading environmental concern. Many scientific and environmental organizations have called for immediate action to limit carbon dioxide production. For the most part, however, public debate has focused on a single policy instrument: a carbon tax applied to fossil fuels in proportion to their carbon content. We present a detailed model of the U.S. economy and use it to compare carbon taxes with two other instruments that could achieve the same reduction in carbon dioxide emissions: a tax on the energy content of fossil fuels (a BTU tax) and an ad valorem tax on fuel use. We find that carbon taxes can achieve a given reduction with the least overall effect on the economy, but with a large effect on coal mining. Energy taxes are fairly similar to carbon taxes but have slightly less impact on coal mining and slightly greater overall cost. In contrast, ad valorem taxes fall much more lightly on coal mining but have a much greater effect on the economy as a whole.     

The economic costs of US stock mispricing

The USAGE model for the United States is used to quantify economic costs due to stock mispricing, made operational by shocking Tobin's q. The simulations quantify a potentially large impact even in the most favorable environment, where export demand holds up, and, the dollar is pro-cyclical. A two-year investment boom in two sectors increases consumption by a Net Present Value (NPV) amount of nearly one per cent, due to a positive investment externality onto the US terms of trade. If the investment is wasted, however, the consumption loss is nearly one-half of a per cent. A 5-year ‘capital strike’ across the whole economy subsequent to the boom - mimicking financial distress from a burst bubble - shaves around 10 per cent off consumption. Given these significant costs associated with “boom” and “bust” equity markets, we consider some, policy options that might result in greater stability in these markets.     

Publishing pays: Economists’ salaries reflect productivity

We study salaries of economics faculty at the University of California to determine how publications affect salary. We find that each publication in a top 10 journal has a positive and significant effect on annual base salary of 1.5%, or $2,053. Unlike previous research, our analysis specifies the impact of publications in specific journals. Publications in American Economic Review, Econometrica, and Review of Economics and Statistics have an independent positive effect on salary. Compensation is also affected by faculty rank, seniority, university of employment, and teaching awards. Base salary does not significantly differ by gender, however, gross salary is about 9% lower for women. After controlling for migration and faculty rank, seniority has a negative impact on salary.     

A new challenge to economic science: Global model simulation

The FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling system has been developed as a scientific policy modeling and future simulation tool of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy co-ordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the global economy co-existing on the planet Earth in the ever changing universe. The FUGI global model M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent. Each national/regional model has nine subsystems as population, foods, energy, environment, economic development, peace and security, human right, healthcare and quality of life (IT revolution). This is a super complex dynamic system model using integrated multidisciplinary systems analysis where number of structural equations is over 170,000. Economic model as a core includes major economic variables such as production of GDP, employment, expenditures of GDP, income distribution, prices, money, interest rates and financial assets, government finance, international balance of payments, international finance, foreign exchange rates and development indicators.The purpose of this article is twofold, namely to provide information on a new frontier science of economics: global model simulation as well as appropriate policy exercise for sustainable development of the interdependent global economy. The world economy is facing “green” energy revolution to change from fossil to create alternative energy and energy saving technology against sky rocketing higher oil prices. Japan takes a lead in this field of technology innovation. Under such circumstances, Japan should take an initiative to create a new peaceful world through not only harmonized adjustments of Japanese economic policy but also wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy. Japan should challenge for a new strategy to accelerate economic growth rates by “CO₂ reducing environment investment” based on technology innovations.     

Smithian Domestic Product and the U.S. economy

This study examines Adam Smith's concept of national product (referred to as Smithian Domestic Product, or SDP) which he articulated in The Wealth of Nations. In contrast to Gross Domestic Product (which measures the production of things that have value), Smith's measure is more plutological. It measures the production of things critical for the accumulation of wealth. Given the global interest in economic growth and improvements in living standards, SDP is potentially useful as a complement to the GDP measure. As a preliminary effort to assess that potential, SDP and GDP estimates for the U.S. economy were compared for the period from 1949 to 2002. For two major macroeconomic events in the past decade (the economic boom of the 1990s and the recent recession), SDP appears to perform better than the GDP measure.     

Planning studies with an optimal control multisectoral dynamic economic model: The case of Sri Lanka

This article investigates the impact of different development scenarios on optimal investment strategy and economy of Sri Lanka and studies the potential of applying control theory techniques to economic planning. The multisectoral dynamic planning model is formulated as a linear quadratic tracking problem. Targets to be tracked define the development strategies: economic growth, trade deficit reduction, food self-sufficiency, and balanced growth. Besides providing insights into these strategies, empirical results show that the difficulty in setting inequality constraints and ensuring nonnegative solutions could undermine the linear tracking optimal control technique for development planning.     

Population monotonic path schemes for simple games

A path scheme for a game is composed of a path, i.e., a sequence of coalitions that is formed during the coalition formation process and a scheme, i.e., a payoff vector for each coalition in the path. A path scheme is called population monotonic if a player’s payoff does not decrease as the path coalition grows. In this study, we focus on Shapley path schemes of simple games in which for every path coalition the Shapley value of the associated subgame provides the allocation at hand. Obviously, each Shapley path scheme of a game is population monotonic if and only if the Shapley allocation scheme of the game is population monotonic in the sense of Sprumont (Games Econ Behav 2:378–394, 1990). We prove that a simple game allows for population monotonic Shapley path schemes if and only if the game is balanced. Moreover, the Shapley path scheme of a specific path is population monotonic if and only if the first winning coalition that is formed along the path contains every minimal winning coalition. We also show that each Shapley path scheme of a simple game is population monotonic if and only if the set of veto players of the game is a winning coalition. Extensions of these results to other efficient probabilistic values are discussed.     

International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey

This paper explores the international transmission mechanisms on the macroeconomic and monetary variables of Turkey and hence proposes some particular policy implications. The effects of monetary shocks stemming from the U.S. and the European area, and global commodity price shocks are investigated using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) approach. For the analysis, we use monthly data from 2002M01 to 2016M06 and we analyze the transmission mechanism in Turkey using two different SVAR model specifications. Our results reveal that shocks coming from the U.S. and the Euro area lead to significantly different responses on industrial production, consumer prices, real effective exchange rates, and the domestic interest rate, with the Euro area monetary expansion having more explicit and positive effects on the real economy. The global commodity price shocks affect the Turkish macroeconomic variables in a similar but much less powerful fashion than that of the U.S. monetary expansion. As our empirical findings point out that the Turkish economy is vulnerable to global monetary and commodity price shocks. This vulnerability necessitates moving to a sustainable growth path consistent with a sustainable current account balance and a sustainable private and government debt coupled with a strengthened macroprudential regime and comprehensive structural reforms.