Welfare Rigidity,the Composition of Public Expenditure and the Welfare Trap

Welfare expenditure is characterized by rigidity, i.e., it goes up easily but is very hard to get down. We introduced welfare rigidity into an endogenous growth model that includes government expenditure to analyze the impact of welfare rigidity and the composition of public expenditure on economic growth and family utility. Our findings show that welfare spending and economic growth have a non-monotonic relationship that is negative or inverted U-shaped depending on cross-country differences. Higher welfare rigidity reduces long-term economic growth and household utility. According to the estimated optimal size of welfare expenditure, China, as a developing country with a large population, has to do all it can to improve people’s livelihood but must at the same time weigh its limited resources so that its welfare expenditure does not fall into a “welfare trap.”     

The Development of State Welfare in the Asian NICs with Special Reference to Taiwan

This paper explores Taiwan's welfare development from its specific politico-economic situation. Although education and public health are well developed in Taiwan and social insurance is expanding to cover more and more Taiwanese people, the govenmental welfare effort is still too low to meet the welfare needs of the public. This is especially so given our discovery that military servicemen and related groups receive over 70% of the welfare expenditure of the central government while the disadvantaged receive only around 3%. Furthermore, political crises are often accompanied by a significant growth in social expenditure, implying that the purpose of state welfare is to maintain the stability of the Taiwanese state rather than to protect the well-being of Taiwanese people. Political isolation forces the Kuomintang (KMT) to secure Taiwan's role in the international community via economic growth. The development of state welfare cannot be allowed to have a negative effect on this highest priority. The limited resources, therefore, are allocated to economic goals as well as to the KMT–state apparatus in order to keep the KMT in power. However, the democratization of Taiwanese politics since the 1980s has forced the KMT to consolidate its legitimacy from the people and the improvement of social welfare is one measure for this purpose. Whether or not Taiwan becomes a Western-style welfare state through the expansion of state welfare in the near future, it furnishes a useful example with which to examine existing welfare theories.     

北京公共教育支出结构与调整策略分析

本文通过对北京1994年以来公共教育支出结构的系统分析,指出北京公共教育支出结构指标与北京经济发展,以及构建和谐社会的客观要求不完全相称,必须及时进行战略调整,确立公共教育支出的优先领域,并制定相应的调整策略。     

Improving educational resilience in the OECD countries: Two convergent paths

While equality of opportunity in education has been studied, the literature mainly focuses on academic performance and its determinants. Thus, to help fill this gap, this paper identifies the factors that contribute to improving equality of opportunity and the policies that should be implemented to achieve it. This work is novel in various ways. First, it defines student resilience in a new way using multilevel models applied to two groups of countries. Second, it analyses the determinants of equality of opportunity in the OECD and makes economic policy recommendations. Using the PISA waves from 2003 to 2018, our results show that uniform economic policies should not be pursued across all OECD countries. While countries in the relatively poor group need economic policies that boost per student expenditure, countries in the richer group should prioritise human capital via teacher salary. In other words, in the richer countries, it is not the level of expenditure that matters but how it is spent. Our results also demonstrate the importance of soft skills for the equality of opportunity of students in all cases. Thus, we recommend designing education policies aimed at developing these skills.     

Regime-specific impact of financial reforms on economic growth in Pakistan

This study uses and proposes a new methodological approach to construct a financial liberalization index on the basis of the dynamic factor model technique. The resulting index is used to investigate the impact of the financial sector reforms in Pakistan on economic growth. Using the Markov regime-switching model over the period 1972–2015, the empirical results showed that the examined relationship is nonlinear, nonmonotonic, state-dependent, and better described by the two-state Markov switching model characterized by the high growth regime and low growth regime. Despite the positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in both the high and low growth regimes, financial liberalization relatively strongly affects real GDP growth in the high growth regime. The results further demonstrate that transition probabilities establish an inordinate episode of the low growth regime. Furthermore, the high growth regime is relatively short-lived than the low growth regime. Among the other variables, trade openness and physical capital stock have a positive impact on economic growth, while labor force and government expenditure exert a negative effect on economic growth. Several economic policies are proposed and discussed for better functioning of financial sector development in Pakistan.     

宏观税负、公共支出结构与个人主观幸福感 ——兼论“政府转型”

本文利用CGSS2006数据库,对政府转型下的宏观税负、民生财政支出和地区收入差距等与个人主观幸福感的关系进行实证检验后发现：（1）宏观税负对居民主观幸福感有显著负影响;（2）总体而言,政府公共支出增进了居民的主观幸福感;（3）从公共支出结构看,地方政府基建投资对于城镇居民的主观幸福感有显著负效应,政府用于科教文卫和社会保障的支出对居民的主观幸福感有显著正效应;（4）科教文卫支出与社会保障支出对市民与外来人员幸福感的影响存在显著差异。     

挤出还是促进——地方财政分权、市场化与低保救助水平差异

利用2013年全国市级有关数据,采用回归方法构建两个递进实证计量模型,考察地方财政分权、市场化对城乡低保救助水平的影响.实证结果表明,地方财政自给度和市场化水平均对低保救助有非常显著的促进作用,农村低保救助相对城市对地方财政分权和市场化的敏感度更高,科教文卫支出对低保救助支出存在非常显著的良性互动关系.建议进一步完善事权与财政支出责任相匹配的机制,提高地方财政自给度,同时转变政府职能,厘清政府权责边界,提升地方市场化水平.     

中国社会保障公共支出省际比较研究

在借鉴社会保障制度比较研究的经典理论和模型的基础上,本文依据中国31个省份的年度截面数据对影响各省社会保障公共支出水平的因素进行了统计分析和模型检验。研究结果发现,中国各省级政府的社会保障公共支出水平存在着巨大的差异。政府力量是造成各省社会保障公共支出水平差异的首要因素,其次是单位体制因素,再次是经济发展水平因素。     

Higher Education Policy,Enrollment, and Income Inequality*

Objective. The objective of this article is to examine whether public expenditure on higher education has an effect on income inequality by increasing enrollment. Methods. Combining data from the World Bank Development Indicators with data from the World Income Inequality Database version 2, we study the relation between government education expenditure and enrollment rates, as well as the relation between government education expenditure and the change in income inequality during the 1980s and the 1990s. Results. We find that public expenditure on higher education has no positive effect on enrollment. Increased enrollment is mainly explained by higher GDP per capita. Using carefully selected Gini coefficients to ensure comparability over time, we do not find a robust relation between higher education expenditure and lower income inequality, contrary to some previous studies. Conclusions. Government expenditure on higher education has very limited effects on enrollment and inequality. This finding, however, does not imply that there are no social benefits from such subsidies. For example, in countries where high marginal tax rates decrease the economic returns to education, governments may wish to compensate for this through subsidies.     

Fighting terrorism in Africa: Complementarity between inclusive development,military expenditure and political stability

This study examines complementarities between inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability in the fight against terrorism in 53 African countries for the period 1998–2012. Hence the policy variables employed in the study are inclusive development, military expenditure and political stability. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) with forward orthogonal deviations. The paper reports three main findings. Firstly, military expenditure and inclusive development are substitutes and not complements. Secondly, it is more relevant to use political stability as a complement of inclusive development than to use inclusive development as a complement of political stability. Thirdly, it can be broadly established that military expenditure and political stability are complementary. In the light of the sequencing, complementarity and substitutability, when the three policy variables are viewed within the same framework, it is more feasible to first pursue political stability and then complement it with military expenditure and inclusive development.     

The relationship between different social expenditure schemes and poverty,inequality and economic growth

In this article, we study how social expenditure is related to poverty, income inequality and GDP growth. Our main contribution is to disentangle these relationships by the following social expenditure schemes: 1) “old age and survivors”, 2) “incapacity”, 3) “health”, 4) “family”, 5) “unemployment and active labour market policies” and 6) “housing and others”. For this purpose, we employ OLS and 2SLS regression models using a panel data set for 22 Member States of the European Union from 1990 until 2015. We find total public social expenditure to be negatively related to poverty and inequality, but not related to GDP growth. The results vary substantially between the different social expenditure schemes, which makes more accurate targeting possible.     

Care leavers: A British affair

Individuals in and leaving care within the UK experience numerous dilemmas that include a lack of supportive housing and potential homelessness, lower educational attainment and occupational status, and greater likelihood of moving into poverty. These adverse situations—all of which are interrelated—shape their present and future health status. Models of these processes usually focus on individual behaviours/characteristics, the consolidation of positive identities through the development of supportive networks, and specific social policies germane to this group. Although informative, these models neglect many key contextual factors that shape these outcomes. In this paper, we present a model of care‐leaving that incorporates developments in the political economy of health literature to show how differing welfare state arrangements shape health by mediating the distribution of economic and social resources over the life course for populations in general and for those in and leaving care specifically. The key recommendation suggested by this model is to focus upon developing public policies to address the vulnerable situations care leavers experience associated with skewed income distributions, lack of housing affordability, weak employment standards, and lack of access to higher education typical of liberal welfare states such as the UK.     

The alternative model of development: the practice of community economy in disaster-stricken Sichuan

The discussion of China as a new partner among the ‘old’ international powerful states has largely focused on its actual and potential economic power and performance. To achieve and maintain this status, China has to convince the world and its people that continuous economic development is not only possible but also necessary. The dominant discourse suggests a model of development that relies primarily on the relentless growth in GDP. This discourse has had a profound influence on the post-earthquake redevelopment/reconstruction efforts in Sichuan province. However, alternative models of development/redevelopment also attempt to help the reconstruction of these communities. Community economy as alternative model emphasizes not just on economic growth, but also the importance of renewing the interpersonal relationships among local villagers and the relationships between rural producers and urban consumers. In this paper, the evolution, implementation and outcome of this practice are described and discussed. Implications and recommendations are also drawn for similar community endeavours in the context of global (economic) development.     

Public spending on agriculture in Southern Africa: Sectoral and intra-sectoral impact and policy implications

The purpose of this paper is two-fold: firstly, it examines the relationship between public agriculture expenditure and agriculture sector growth, and secondly, it examines the heterogeneous effects of expenditure on agriculture growth depending on which subsectors within agriculture receive the investments. The co-integration analysis results offer insights into a number of issues: (i) it is found that agricultural expenditures are important for agriculture sector growth in Malawi, Eswatini (Swaziland) and Zambia and (ii) that within the agricultural sectors, investing in research and development, subsidies, and in neglected areas (livestock, fisheries) alongside crops can expand the agricultural sector more. Policy makers should increase public spending in agriculture but should also emphasize on improving intra-sectoral allocations, targeting areas that create sectoral growth.     

An Enhanced Macroeconomic Approach to Long-Range Projections of Health Care and Social Security Expenditures as a Share of GDP

An enhanced two-sector economic growth model is created to project health care and Social Security expenditures as a share of GDP in the United States. Parameters used in the economic simulation model are based largely on consensus views in the literature. The main advantages of an economic model over the more commonly used actuarial models are: (1) explicit specification of underlying fundamental structures, (2) ability to investigate relationships in the entire economy, and (3) a fuller scope provided for policy analysis. Under the base model assumptions, that is, a continuation of current conditions for the production of, demand for, and financing of health care services, the economic model projects that the health care sector consumes 15.8 percent of national output by the year 2000 and 27.1 percent by the year 2040. The annual rate of increase in per capita consumption (less health spending) (“adjusted consumption”) falls from 1 percent in 2000 to 0.6 percent in 2025, and then increases to 0.8 percent in 2040, as the rate of increase in spending on health care for the elderly, and the capital investment required to support such spending, flow and ebb with the passing of the baby boom generation. Over the whole projection horizon, government spending on the health care of the elderly increases from a projected 3.8 percent of GDP in 2000 to 9.2 percent in 2040. Social Security expenditures for the elderly are projected to increase from 3.9 percent to 6.3 percent over the same period. More widespread HMO coverage is shown to lead to some small improvements in adjusted consumption. Over the long horizon, improved efficiency and productivity in the health sector and lower Social Security benefits assumed to cause an increased rate of savings and investment, however, actually cause the rate of growth in health spending to increase and adjusted consumption to decline, ceteris paribus. By contrast, an increase in sensitivity to health care prices leads to dramatically improved results, both in higher adjusted consumption and better finances for government programs of health care for the elderly.     

推行"绿色GDP"是我国实现可持续发展的必然选择

绿色GDP是由科学发展观所催生的核算体系,它的建立将对我国国民财富的积累产生重大影响,使政府对国民经济运行过程的测度更重视经济流量与经济存量的有机结合。推行"绿色GDP"制度对实现经济增长、社会进步和环境保护的"三赢"目标具有广泛而深远的意义。然而,鉴于目前推行绿色GDP既存在观念上的障碍,亦存在技术上的困难,应确立以"绿色GDP"为基础的官员政绩考核体系,建立可持续发展观统领下的绿色GDP核算与数据发布制度,搭建"以人为本"思想指导下的公众参与评价平台。     

‘Southern‐style’ National Health Services? Recent Reforms and Trends in Spain and Greece

This article analyses recent changes in the Greek and Spanish national health services. The aim is to assess how the period of austerity and further recovery during the 1990s and early 2000s impacted on them in terms of equity and efficiency. This is of interest because of the closeness in time between the universalizing reform laws and the arrival of the conditions for economic convergence established in the Maastricht Treaty. The analysis is also attractive because it deals with the transformation of already mature health insurance systems into national health services, a transformation that is novel in European welfare history. The article addresses the questions of whether austerity has hindered full implementation of the reform laws enacted in the early to mid‐1980s, examining reform trajectories and financing and expenditure trends. Furthermore, it considers the impact on access, understood in terms of population coverage, the array of services provided, waiting lists, and territorial inequalities. Finally, it discusses the introduction of new managerial formulas and attempts at enhancing efficiency. The concluding section states that divergent trajectories have occurred, thus rendering the definition of a ‘Southern model of health care’ difficult. It also provides explanations of the trajectories followed in both national cases and informs on prospects for the future.     

A note on the determinants of sexually transmitted disease rates

This paper addresses the impact of several factors on rates of sexually transmitted disease (STD) in the United States. Similar to existing studies, which proxy health outcomes by mortality rates or life expectancy, we find that health care spending improves health outcome. That is, using annual data over the 1960–1997 period, rates of syphilis, gonorrhea, and chancroid fall with increases in per capita health care expenditure. Furthermore, per capita income, per pupil education expenditure, as well as a host of socio-demographic variables, also affect STD rates.     

Internalizing the public cost of obesity in Spain: Distributional effects on nutrient intake

Studies dealing with obesity have confronted it either from the fiscal policy or from economic cost perspective. There is the need to target fiscal policy goals at the economic cost that obesity imposes on society instead of simulating arbitrary taxes schemes. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of imposing a revenue-neutral fat tax in Spain addressed to internalize the public health expenditure associated to obesity. Results suggest that this tax policy led to an improvement in the diet quality, and decreased the consumption of saturated fatty acid, sodium, and cholesterol. From the welfare perspective, the tax is regressive across all household segments.     

Alcohol Policy and Health Promotion: Rhetoric and Reality

This paper examines the economic and political constraints on the development of Australian policy directed at the prevention of alcohol-related health problems. An analysis is made of recent official statements and enquiries and it is argued that heightened concern about prevention arose in the context of budgetary problems and the need for governments to find ways of containing expenditure in the welfare area. The effectiveness of current efforts is called into question by the real nature of the constraints on health, and of the disparity between prevention rhetoric and policy implementation. It is suggested that government statements of intent to reduce the overall level of alcohol comsumption in the community entail no clear-cut commitment to a particular strategy or set of strategies, and that recent government actions indicate the limited possibilities for the implementation of such a policy. Any policies governments are likely to pursue are unlikely to disrupt major sources of government revenue. Because of the high profile that governments have created for the problem, there is the possibility that the policies that are adopted will be politically expedient in the short-term rather than providing real solutions.