An econometric model of the agricultural sector of the Indian economy

The interrelationships between production, consumption, and stocks are studied in an interdependent framework for two groups of agricultural commodities, namely foodgrains and nonfoodgrains, with a view to obtain policy guidelines for agricultural growth. The model is formulated with aggregate information over the period 1951–1975 and both static and dynamic simulation along with multiplier analysis are carried out to assess the performance of the model. The study reveals that if there had been no PL 480 aid from the U.S. imports, foodgrain prices would have been higher than observed prices. Ex-ante forecasts to 1985 suggest some need for adequate planning with regard to stockbuilding.     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

Impacts of off‐farm employment on welfare,food security and poverty: Evidence from rural Vietnam

How off‐farm employment can enhance welfare in terms of food consumption and poverty alleviation is a critical question facing many developing countries. This study addressed that question by pursuing two objectives: (i) to quantify the impact of off‐farm employment on rural households’ welfare, food security and poverty; and (ii) to examine the factors that affect their decision to work off‐farm. Using panel data, we estimated a difference‐in‐difference combined with a propensity score matching model. The findings show that off‐farm employment improves income, ensures food security and contributes to poverty alleviation. The results also show that age, marital status, education, labour, financial capital, land, location, market access and losses from natural disasters are significant contributing factors to the decision to participate in off‐farm employment. The findings suggest that to improve the welfare of rural households, the Vietnamese government should proceed with policies that enhance their opportunities for participation in off‐farm employment.     

Fiscal Policy and Urban and Rural Residents＇ Marginal Propensity to Consume

基于代表性家庭最优消费决策及其与财政政策的关系,估计中国财政政策对城乡居民边际消费倾向的影响,结果表明,自1998年至今,城乡居民边际消费倾向的下降幅度超过20％。城乡居民边际消费倾向下降,．除源于收入分配、经济发展程度、预期、消费结构等因素的影响外,与财政政策运用也有很大关系。其中,未预期到的财政政策冲击对居民边际消费倾向产生的综合效应显著为负。以未预期到的税收增加为融资工具的策略选择,大大抑制了结构调整的正面效应。因此,扩大居民消费,不仅要通过财政增收,提高居民消费能力,而且要通过调整财政收支策略,稳定居民消费预期,提升居民边际消费倾向。     

A computable prototype model of economic development

Economic development models need to advance beyond the two-gap type capital-output models of growth. This paper presents a prototype model of economic development where development is defined more broadly than aggregative output growth in terms of four objectives, namely, income, consumption, distribution, and employment. It is in keeping with the basic needs approach recently developed by the World Bank and other international organizations.The model formulation is based on the dualistic theory of capital formation and structural change. The specification is on the supply side. A novel aspect of the model is that it incorporates the role of education, health, and nutrition in economic development. Further it makes use of cross section data, which is unusual in model building.The model is put to illustrative use to generate dynamic policy multipliers of education and health expenditure. The results do not support the Malthusian fears that increased health expenditure would cause massive unemployment and reduce the standard of living in LDCs.     

首都经济圈综合功能区划研究

首都经济圈综合功能区划是优化配置区域空间资源、合理组织区域空间结构方案的基础。本文在研究首都经济圈区域综合发展条件的基础上,界定首都经济圈空间范围,构建首都经济圈综合功能区划目标及原则,建立首都经济圈综合功能区划研究框架,分析首都经济圈土地利用特征、水资源空间分异特征、人口和经济总量分异特征、产业结构分异特征及基础设施支撑度分异特征,并在以上分析的基础上构建首都经济圈综合功能区划,确定未来首都经济圈各功能区功能定位及发展方向,为未来首都经济圈空间结构的优化配置奠定基础。     

The vexed link between social capital and social mobility for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

Overcoming the socio‐economic disparity between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non‐Indigenous Australians is a long‐standing social policy objective: one largely shared by Indigenous people. Achievement will require Indigenous individuals and households to be socially mobile, a process integrally involved with social capital, existing and requisite. The lack of research on Indigenous social mobility or its attendant social capital connections is addressed in this paper through an exploratory analysis of this interaction across three dimensions: distinctive patterns of Indigenous social capital; the transferability of Indigenous social capital; and traversing the social capital divide. The implications drawn, while tentative, indicate that for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people the intersection of the processes of social mobility and social capital is vexed, and contains hazards and costs not fully shared by socially mobile non‐Indigenous households. The Indigenous‐specific factors of a gendered professional class, the identity–social capital link, and Indigenous labour market circumstances all indicate that more research and a more nuanced understanding of Indigenous social mobility is necessary. Social policy recommendations include broadening the concept of cultural leave to include bonding social capital obligations, especially for women, and re‐evaluation of how to support Indigenous career trajectories and transferable skill sets.     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

Public investment in care services in Turkey: Promoting employment & gender inclusive growth

Recent policy debates on macroeconomic tools to counteract the prolonged global economic recession point to the potential of fiscal policies with appropriate sectoral targets for simultaneously boosting effective demand while alleviating inequalities through employment generation. This paper contributes to the debate by pointing to the social care services sector –in particular early childhood education and care (ECEC) — as an effective target of fiscal spending for robust employment generation and gender inclusive growth. We use a macro-micro simulation model to examine the aggregate and gender employment impact of increasing public expenditures on ECEC services, an underdeveloped sector in Turkey versus physical infrastructure and construction, a common target of stimulatory spending. Our methodological approach combines input-output analysis on aggregate employment effects with a statistical microsimulation approach to assess distributional outcomes. We find that an expansion of ECEC services creates not only significantly more jobs but also does so in a more gender-equitable and fiscally sustainable way than the a construction boom.     

Growth,inequality and innovation: A CGE analysis of India

This paper probes into the growth and distributional consequences of four basic policy options emanating from the three sources of economic growth, namely, physical capital, human capital and technological progress, with the help of a computable general equilibrium model of India. The simulation results show that, the efficacy of physical capital accumulation in augmenting growth and abating income inequality is greater than that of human capital accumulation. In the long term, however, the latter overtakes the former in promoting growth, but inequality worsens. When the two policies are commingled, growth improves but it continues to be inequality-augmenting. Finally, with concomitant Hicks-neutral technological progress, not only is growth enhanced further, but it turns out to be significantly inequality-mitigating. The emerging policy lesson is that any integrated policy of boosting investments in physical as well as human capital must be closely bound up with technological progress for growth to be inclusive.     

Dollar appreciation,deficit stimulation,and the new protectionism

This article probes whether contemporary U.S. protectionism arises from an appreciating dollar. It concludes that (a) an enrich-thy-neighbor policy of upvaluation has transformed the current U.S. economic recovery into an engine of global recovery; (b) flexible exchange rates continually equilibrate the balance of payments as evidenced in changed domestic—relative to foreign—prices, as well as in capital movements induced by interest-rate differentials resulting from exchange-rate shifts; and (c) flexible exchange rates automatically alter so as to maintain a country's competitive position in the world economy even when facing deficits at home and abroad.     

Accurate Understanding of China＇s Income,Consumption and Investment

从基本概念、基本用途、口径范围、资料来源和计算方法、数据表现等方面阐述资金流量表中的居民可支配收入与住户调查中的居民可支配收入之间的区别，支出法GDP中的居民消费与住户调查中的居民消费之间的区别，以及支出法GDP中的固定资本形成总额与投资统计中的全社会固定资产投资之间的区别，可以揭示出，住户调查中的居民收入和居民消费数据存在一定程度的低估，投资统计中的全社会固定资产投资数据存在一定程度的高估，但并没有直接影响到对中国国民可支配收入在居民、企业、政府三者之间的分配结构和最终需求结构等重大经济结构的准确判断。     

A general model of family income distribution: Chicago and Cambridge reconciled

In the first part of the present study it is shown that the theories of personal income distribution developed in the past one hundred years are partial and incomplete even when integrated. Because they stop short of offering a promise of a general distribution theory, the second part of the study proposes a general scheme anchored upon an all-inclusive concept of both human and material capital. Prevailing inheritance models are evaluated in the third part of this study, while the basic model appears in the fourth. It is a theoretical model but is rooted in an actual economy, namely, Brazil. An emperical application of the model is given in the final section. Since income distribution involves social welfare, the study ends with a dynamic policy analysis in which optimal time paths of changes in different policy instruments are computed for the attainment of planned redistribution goals during specified time periods.     

Public Opinion and Dynamic Representation in the American States: The Case of Environmental Attitudes*

Objective. We investigate causal processes linking environmental conditions, attitudes, and policies in the American states: Is public opinion about ecology shaped by environmental conditions? Are state policymakers responsive to environmental opinions? Does public opinion respond to policy adoption? Methods. Using public opinion data from the DDB Worldwide Life Style Survey to measure aggregate state attitudes about the environment, as well as measures of water quality and policy intervention, we capture the dynamics of representation in the American states on the environment during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Results. Our findings support a thermostatic model of representation—state environmental opinions are influenced by environmental conditions and are responsive to policy outputs alongside improved environmental conditions. Conclusions. This model of the opinion‐policy linkage refines our understanding of representation and focuses us not just on the passage of public policy to address public desires, but the effectiveness of that policy as well.     

Accurate Understanding of China’s Income,Consumption and Investment

Abstract

This study elaborates on the differences between resident disposable income in the flow of funds table and in the household survey; between household consumption in expenditure-based GDP and in the household survey; and between gross fixed capital formation in expenditure-based GDP and total fixed asset investment in the whole country as shown in investment statistics, from the point of view of their basic concepts and purposes, scope of specifications, data sources, calculation methods and data presentation. We show that the household survey somewhat underestimates household income and consumption, while investment statistics somewhat overestimate total investment in fixed assets. This does not, however, directly affect the accurate understanding of such major economic structures as the structure of the distribution of Chinese nationals’ disposable income among households, enterprises and government, the structure of final demand, etc.     

Cooperation between politicians and econometricians and the search for optimal economic policy

The problem of formalizing the cooperation between politicians and econometricians as an iterative—or trial and error—process, such that the weights in a preference function can be obtained in a finite number of steps, is considered. The approach is based on the pioneering suggestions made by Tinbergen and Frisch within the framework of a formal theory of economic policy. Using the implicit information given by a possible and implementable dialogue between a policy maker and a model builder it is shown that it is possible to take into account explicitly the interdependence between targets, instruments, and weights.     

Changes in the world income distribution

Drawing on new international comparison estimates for 127 nations, this study examines in some detail for the decinnial years 1950–1980 the world size distribution of income. Different income concepts—national output valued in different ways, and also consumption alone; and income per-equivalent adult as well as per capita—have been considered in judging how world inequality has changed. The principal findings are: (i) at a point in time, the intercountry differences in income—differences among nations—are greater than the usually observed intracountry differences in income—differences within nations; and (ii) over time systematic differences in national economic growth rates of countries led on balance to very slightly increased intercountry inequality (quite possible not beyond the margin of measurement error) but that (and this judgment is quite tentative) the changes in intracountry inequality over time have left inequality in the overall distribution unchanged.     

Commodity prices and the world distribution of income

Some advocates of a new international economic order recommend raising prices of commodities exported by developing countries as a means of reducing the inequality of world income distribution. A simulation model using commodity trade data and income distribution data for 68 industrial and developing countries examines this policy alternative. Initial data compilation reveals that internal inequality is as important as international: The world income share of the poorest 40% of people would be twice as high in the absence of intracountry inequality. Calculations using actual price experience in the “great inflation” of 1972–1975 show that despite the large relative price changes for some commodities (especially oil), these changes left the world size distribution of income virtually unchanged. Separate policy simulations show that even a quadrupling of the price of ali “equalizing” commodities (those mainly exported by LDCs) would leave the size distribution of world income practically unaltered (even under optimistic assumptions about intracountry distributional incidence), although some individual LDCs would gain. Increasing commodity prices therefore appears to be an ineffective means of increasing international equity, quite apart from questions about the feasibility of cartels or commodity agreements.